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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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You may, but the mere expression of that statement does not make it true and moreover, people have the choice – to read or not to read…
That has nothing to do with talking at cross-purposes.

You seem to have missed that most posters here believe: “People see things in the sky that they cannot identify all the time. So what?” (or words to that effect). In other words according to most people contributing to this thread, there is no mystery. People make mistakes. What we have here are UFMOs (Unidentified Flying Mundane Objects). So what?
Actually, I would venture to guess that that is precisely not what most people here contend. They can correct me if I'm wrong, of course.

What I see people saying is that UFO's are UFO's precisely in the way you are talking about, but they see no reason to look for non-mundane explanations, given the usually very scant evidence.
I'd think their every-day stance on the matter is: I don't know; there's not enough evidence to tell what happened.

In this thread we are coming up with mundane explanations because there's no end to speculating on non-mundane ones, because it's pointless to speculate before giving mundane explanations a good bit of thought, and, importantly, because you more or less challenged them to.
 
wollery – The argument is becoming unnecessarily bogged down in the minutia. Lets concentrate on the accepted facts for a moment:

First, the victims were woken by “a loud humming noise and a vivid, dazzling light, which brilliantly illuminated the interior of the house (…) not accompanied by a sensation of heat, although there was a smoky appearance and a peculiar smell.” (…) (http://bp0.blogger.com/_-qWvml8_fAg/SGccRWGaJpI/AAAAAAAAAF8/J2QyUR-1d0E/s1600-h/SciAm2.JPG)

We can accept these as basic facts because there are many indications the victims are telling the truth. As you point out, all the victims (nine “persons” - suggesting a family most likely including children and older people) were injured in the same way and “If they were going to engage in a criminal activity they would most likely leave the children at home with their grandparents or the female adults. The result would be that only a small number of them would have been injured” and as I pointed out there is no plausible extracurricular activity that might cause such injuries anyway. Not only that but there is then no reason for them to lie about it - not to mention that in 1886 Venezuela it is not plausible that they could imagine such a story (humming, brilliant light) as a lie to cover for something else for at such a time and place such a story would simply be unbelievable - and therefore not useful as a cover story (it would invite disbelief and questioning and indeed, even today we have trouble processing it).

Second there are the victims symptoms. To all intents and purposes the victim’s symptomatology resembles an over-exposure to ionising radiation. That is, given what we do know about such radiation, the symptoms could have plausibly been caused by ionizing radiation.

We can accept the symptoms as a basic fact in the case because not only do we have a first hand witness account to the “later” stages, again, there is no reason for the victims to lie about the course of them.

Now what do we make of these two facts?

You claim that it would be implausible for the radiation to have gotten into the house (eg; ”all doors and windows being closed at the time”), yet there is no escaping the fact that the victims were injured (Perhaps the “smoky appearance” is a clue? Ingestion of radioactive particles?)

You claim that maybe they were burned somehow (infrared radiation), yet there was no “sensation of heat” and ”The remarkable part of the occurrence was that the house was uninjured” and (the source being external) (”the trees around the house (…) showed no sign of injury until the ninth day, when they suddenly withered…”).

But if it was not “particulate” (Alpha, Beta, protons) ionizing radiation and it was not infrared then that leaves us with (as you say) Gamma, X-ray and Neutrons. Now we know these can penetrate the common materials making up a “house” (wood, glass, etc) and they can also cause the symptoms experienced by the victims. So what are the contraindications?

First there is dosage. Too high and it will kill, too low and it will not cause the observed symptoms. In this regard there seems to be a problem. If the dose was high enough to cause almost immediate vomiting, then it would also have probably killed them in the medium term.

Two scenarios are then possible. The victims actually did die from their injuries (given their “truly horrible” appearance, Cowgill only hoped they would not die) or that the vomiting was not radiation related (perhaps a hysterical reaction – noting they fell to their knees in terror and prayer thinking the end of the world had come). Either scenario is plausible and therefore dosage considerations in relation to the symptoms does not rule out such radiation as Gamma, Xray or Neutron.

You have also objected to the “swelling”, yet we know radiation can cause swelling (http://www.cdc.gov/search.do?queryT...rchButton.x=36&searchButton.y=5&action=search)

What about the symptoms being more apparent on some parts of the body that others (one side being more affected and the upper more than the lower)? Obviously the relationship and positioning of the body to the source would affect this. Crouched in prayer one side facing the source?

So in the end we have a visible radiation source and we have radiation injury symptoms and we have potential candidate radiation types. Given all that we know about the case, it seems that some form of ionizing radiation (most likely gamma or xray but perhaps neutron – or a combination) was the most likely cause.

The question of course is how could that have been possible in rural Venezuela in 1886? That is the mystery that remains unanswered.

(I will reply to your 100% + error margins assertions in another post)
 
wollery – The argument is becoming unnecessarily bogged down in the minutia. Lets concentrate on the accepted facts for a moment:
The minutiae are often rather important, especially in a case such as this one

Second there are the victims symptoms. To all intents and purposes the victim’s symptomatology resembles an over-exposure to ionising radiation. That is, given what we do know about such radiation, the symptoms could have plausibly been caused by ionizing radiation.
Some of the symptoms, but not all of them. And some symptoms that we would expect were not present, which is a problem for the hypothesis.

We can accept the symptoms as a basic fact in the case because not only do we have a first hand witness account to the “later” stages, again, there is no reason for the victims to lie about the course of them.
And if we do accept the symptoms as fact then radiation poisoning doesn't really fit all that well.

Now what do we make of these two facts?

You claim that it would be implausible for the radiation to have gotten into the house (eg; ”all doors and windows being closed at the time”), yet there is no escaping the fact that the victims were injured (Perhaps the “smoky appearance” is a clue? Ingestion of radioactive particles?)
Which would result in different symptoms, unless you want to argue for both ingested radiation and beamed radiation, which would result in a larger overall dose.

You claim that maybe they were burned somehow (infrared radiation),
No, that was someone else's claim, not mine.

yet there was no “sensation of heat”
Which was why I ruled out IR radiation.

and ”The remarkable part of the occurrence was that the house was uninjured” and (the source being external) (”the trees around the house (…) showed no sign of injury until the ninth day, when they suddenly withered…”).
Do you have any data for the effect of X-rays, gamma rays or neutrons on trees?

I don't, but I seriously doubt the damage would delay for the same amount of time as as it does in humans.

The only information I could find was on low dosage long term damage or extremely high dosage damage.

But if it was not “particulate” (Alpha, Beta, protons) ionizing radiation and it was not infrared then that leaves us with (as you say) Gamma, X-ray and Neutrons. Now we know these can penetrate the common materials making up a “house” (wood, glass, etc) and they can also cause the symptoms experienced by the victims. So what are the contraindications?

First there is dosage. Too high and it will kill, too low and it will not cause the observed symptoms. In this regard there seems to be a problem. If the dose was high enough to cause almost immediate vomiting, then it would also have probably killed them in the medium term.

Two scenarios are then possible. The victims actually did die from their injuries (given their “truly horrible” appearance, Cowgill only hoped they would not die) or that the vomiting was not radiation related (perhaps a hysterical reaction – noting they fell to their knees in terror and prayer thinking the end of the world had come). Either scenario is plausible and therefore dosage considerations in relation to the symptoms does not rule out such radiation as Gamma, Xray or Neutron.
If the vomiting was not radiation related then it has to be something that would cause immediate vomiting in all nine victims. As I pointed out, different people react differently to the same situation, so to suggest that it was a hysterical reaction in all nine of them at the same time is stretching the bounds of credibility to breaking point.

Furthermore, if it was radiation poisoning in a dose large enough to cause the reported symptoms then they should have spent between 24 and 48 hours vomiting, as well as passing bloody stools, and getting confused. But none of these symptoms were reported.

You have also objected to the “swelling”, yet we know radiation can cause swelling (http://www.cdc.gov/search.do?queryT...rchButton.x=36&searchButton.y=5&action=search)
Neatly ignoring the passage I quoted from that link which states that the swelling is accompanied by pain, burning and blistering, none of which were reported, and we can thus rule out such a cause.

What about the symptoms being more apparent on some parts of the body that others (one side being more affected and the upper more than the lower)? Obviously the relationship and positioning of the body to the source would affect this. Crouched in prayer one side facing the source?
Before which they were in bed, and then, presumably standing, and then vomiting. They weren't sitting in one position doing nothing, their prayers were interrupted by the vomiting, remember.

So in the end we have a visible radiation source
Visible EM radiation, as in a bright light.

and we have radiation injury symptoms
Some symptoms, but not all the ones we would expect.

and we have potential candidate radiation types.
Which gives us nothing more than the knowledge of which types of radiation could pass through the walls of the hut. It doesn't say anything about whether or not radiation was the cause of their injuries.

Given all that we know about the case, it seems that some form of ionizing radiation (most likely gamma or xray but perhaps neutron – or a combination) was the most likely cause.
Except that the symptoms don't fit with the known symptoms of radiation poisoning.

The question of course is how could that have been possible in rural Venezuela in 1886? That is the mystery that remains unanswered.
There are other mysteries, like how you can continue to argue that radiation poisoning fits the injuries, despite the absence of so many of the symptoms typical of radiation poisoning at the dosage required to produce their other symptoms.

There is, of course, yet another possibility, although it too is far fetched. You mentioned above the possibility of them breathing in radioactive smoke, but what if it was smoke laden with heavy metals? We know that the symptoms also fit with poisoning by some heavy metals, and that they could enter the system in the form of smoke particles. This would also explain the absence of the expected radiation poisoning symptoms.

Given that there were no man-made radiation sources capable of producing the sort of dosages required for their injuries then it's not unreasonable to suppose other sources for the injuries that humans couldn't produce.

Also, I note that they report a "smoky appearance", not smoke.
 
I've been following this and have also gone back and searched, but I could have missed something. If so, I apologize.

Is our only account of this a second-hand story sent into a magazine? If so, I'd like to put it out there that there have been times in my life where I would have found it highly amusing to send such a letter in as a prank. I did see that Rramjet suggested that it isn't made up for a few reasons, but all of those things fit in nicely with what I would do if I was trying to pull a fast one on them.

For example, all the times I told ghost stories to kids I made sure not to say that I saw a ghost. Quite the contrary - I would say I'm sure it's not a ghost, that ghosts probably don't exist. It must have been something scientific and mundane and explainable... but man, it sure did look like a face...

Gets them every time. Far, far better than trying to insist that it's a ghost directly. Likewise, if I were trying to get a spooky story into Scientific American then I would put it forth as a electrical disturbance or something. I would try to leave some uncertainty because that makes it more plausible to people, and I would also lend myself some credibility by saying I saw the people it happened to - that's actually more convincing in many cases than saying it happened to you directly and I've used it several times.

That's not to say that this should be taken as proof that it was all a fabrication, but as someone who has made up some very similar things I find it the most plausible explanation. Heck, once this explanation is set aside I don't have any others at all. UFOs, Bigfoot with a faulty microwave, and ghosts seem equally unlikely. These symptoms actually match quite nicely with some I've heard attributed to curses, so maybe they angered a witch?

I'm not trying to poke fun here. If I go beyond 'mundane' explanations I don't see anything that points to it being any particular non-mundane thing and don't see why we would rule out the Flying Spaghetti Monster. Until we have a reason to narrow the field some, I would just say I don't know. This doesn't seem like any kind of proof for or against "aliens".
 
H'ethetheth – You stated that I was “talking straight past everyone”. I replied that statement was unfounded and that people had the choice whether to read this thread or not.
That has nothing to do with talking at cross-purposes.
You are correct …but then suddenly you are “talking at cross-purposes”…

I stated:
“…most posters here believe: “People see things in the sky that they cannot identify all the time. So what?” (or words to that effect). In other words according to most people contributing to this thread, there is no mystery. People make mistakes. What we have here are UFMOs (Unidentified Flying Mundane Objects). So what?
Actually, I would venture to guess that that is precisely not what most people here contend. They can correct me if I'm wrong, of course.
I did not say the people here contended that, I stated that they believed that. They contend UFOs but believe UFMOs.

What I see people saying is that UFO's are UFO's precisely in the way you are talking about…
I am talking about sighted objects that cannot be identified, neither at the time of the sighting, nor after extensive investigation and they remain UFOs to this date. The UFO debunkers acknowledge the “at the time” bit, but discount the “investigation” bit.

…but they see no reason to look for non-mundane explanations, given the usually very scant evidence.
Here is where you talk “straight past” me. Everyone looks for mundane solutions, but when none are found, people are then free to speculate - and
...it was Roger Bacon who stated “Experimental science is the queen of sciences and the goal of all speculation.” (http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/sciquote.htm) and Charles Darwin: “I am a firm believer, that without speculation there is no good & original observation.” (http://www.darwinproject.ac.uk/entry-2192)


I'd think their every-day stance on the matter is: I don't know; there's not enough evidence to tell what happened.
The UFO debunker’s stance is: It is a UFMO until proved otherwise. That is, there does exist a mundane explanation, it is just that we can’t see it at this point because we do not have enough or the correct information.

My stance is: It is a UFO because there is enough information to rule out all plausible mundane explanations.

To take a recently discussed case for example (White Sands - http://www.brumac.8k.com/WhiteSandsProof/WhiteSandsProof.html) we can see that repeated sightings of groups of 30 foot diameter objects travelling at high speed at 150000 feet in the period 1947/1950 rules out all plausible mundane explanations because the only technological capability we had at the time was the V2 and also the sightings do not match any known astronomical object. In other words we have enough information to rule out all plausible mundane explanations. I have presented many cases where this is so. In fact the cases I have chosen (in the main) represent sightings where we do have sufficient information to achieve this.
 
I never said that they published results and kept the large errors secret, I said they published results with large errors. That is, the large errors were published along with the results. I can point you to lots of high impact scientific journals that have published results with errors of 50% or more. In my own field of research errors of 20% to 30% are common. The first release of Hipparcos data gave some results with errors in excess of 100%, and that was a hugely lauded, highly publicly advertised, expensive NASA funded project.
For the record, the astronomical data with errors in excess of 100% that I referred to in previous posts is the Hipparcos catalogue, and it was sponsored by ESA, not NASA (sorry for the confusion). Don't take my word for it, and don't just dismiss it. Look it up for yourself. It's available free online. Look up the parallax and proper motion data, and you'll find errors well in excess of 100% for some stars.
The point is that while the White Sands data analysis summary report does not cite the measurement error margins, the professional scientists involved would not have presented the size/distance data on the objects if the errors were large enough to render them meaningless in the context - and measurement errors of the magnitude you indicate do that - and of course you contend such errors in a deliberate attempt to render the data meaningless (that is your point).

My point is that the analysts involved are telling us that within acceptable limits the objects were approximately (note the inclusion of that word, it means that they were definitely aware of measurement error) 30 ft in diameter and travelling at an altitude of 15000 feet.

As for the measurement errors you cite in the Hipparcos data, they are of an entirely different nature. This can be determined logically because if the measurement errors in that data 100% (or more), that means that whatever measurement is being taken, it could have negative values. However, when it comes to size and distance measurements, negative values are meaningless. That is, the greatest possible measurement error in such a calculation is 100% - meaning a potential size and altitude of zero… and that is obviously nonsense. Therefore it is impossible for the measurement error to be 100% because the scientists simply would not have reported the data. We must then consider what reasonable and acceptable measurement error would have allowed the scientists to report as they did. Given that the 5% (p<.05) value is ubiquitous and all scientists have that value firmly in their head as a “guide” to what is acceptable and what is not when reporting data, we can reasonably assume that the measurement error would have been around that value. We must also remember that these professionals obviously knew their stuff. They were involved in producing the data on test rocket firings, where accuracy would have been paramount. It is simply not plausible to contend that the data reported contained measurement error margins large enough to render the data meaningless.

Getting back to Venezuela:

There is, of course, yet another possibility, although it too is far fetched. You mentioned above the possibility of them breathing in radioactive smoke, but what if it was smoke laden with heavy metals? We know that the symptoms also fit with poisoning by some heavy metals, and that they could enter the system in the form of smoke particles. This would also explain the absence of the expected radiation poisoning symptoms.

Given that there were no man-made radiation sources capable of producing the sort of dosages required for their injuries then it's not unreasonable to suppose other sources for the injuries that humans couldn't produce.
Okay, if you are contending “heavy metal poisoning” as a plausible mundane explanation then you will be able to provide a plausible scenario in which that could occur. Over to you…
 
H'ethetheth – You stated that I was “talking straight past everyone”. I replied that statement was unfounded and that people had the choice whether to read this thread or not.

You are correct …but then suddenly you are “talking at cross-purposes”…

I stated:
“…most posters here believe: “People see things in the sky that they cannot identify all the time. So what?” (or words to that effect). In other words according to most people contributing to this thread, there is no mystery. People make mistakes. What we have here are UFMOs (Unidentified Flying Mundane Objects). So what?

I did not say the people here contended that, I stated that they believed that. They contend UFOs but believe UFMOs.
No, you are incorrect. It is the creduloids who profess they believe in UFOs but in reality they believe in UFAOs (Unidentified Flying Alien Objects). Sometimes they start threads about that very subject.

I am talking about sighted objects that cannot be identified, neither at the time of the sighting, nor after extensive investigation and they remain UFOs to this date. The UFO debunkers acknowledge the “at the time” bit, but discount the “investigation” bit.
No, you are incorrect. The rationally minded still call them UFOs since they still haven't been identified. It is the creduloids who still believe them to be UFAOs until they are proven to be mundane.

Here is where you talk “straight past” me. Everyone looks for mundane solutions, but when none are found, people are then free to speculate - and



The UFO debunker’s stance is: It is a UFMO until proved otherwise. That is, there does exist a mundane explanation, it is just that we can’t see it at this point because we do not have enough or the correct information.
No, you are incorrect. To the creduloids, it is a UFAO until proven to be mundane. That is, it is "alien" until you can prove it to the creduloid's satisfaction that it is mundane.

To the rationally minded (what you have been disparaging as "debunkers"), it is Unidentified.

My stance is: It is a UFO because there is enough information to rule out all plausible mundane explanations.
No, to you it is a UFAO because you don't want it to be mundane. It is a faith based belief system. And you have proven that you are incapable of ruling out all mundane explanations. To take a recently discussed case, the NASA video.

To take a recently discussed case for example (White Sands - http://www.brumac.8k.com/WhiteSandsProof/WhiteSandsProof.html) we can see that repeated sightings of groups of 30 foot diameter objects travelling at high speed at 150000 feet in the period 1947/1950 rules out all plausible mundane explanations because the only technological capability we had at the time was the V2 and also the sightings do not match any known astronomical object. In other words we have enough information to rule out all plausible mundane explanations. I have presented many cases where this is so. In fact the cases I have chosen (in the main) represent sightings where we do have sufficient information to achieve this.
You've never had enough information to rule out all mundane explanations. Remember your DebriWP Debacle, the Rramjet Seven, your inability to figure out the mundane explanation I was thinking of, and your utter failure with wollery's challenge in the Venezuela case. Remember, where the set was finite and known to you?

I will only bring it up if you continue to claim you can eliminate mundane explanations, when the set is infinite and unknown to you.
 
The point is that while the White Sands data analysis summary report does not cite the measurement error margins, the professional scientists involved would not have presented the size/distance data on the objects if the errors were large enough to render them meaningless in the context - and measurement errors of the magnitude you indicate do that - and of course you contend such errors in a deliberate attempt to render the data meaningless (that is your point).
No, that isn't my point at all. I have said before, and will say again now for clarity. I doubt that the errors in the White Sands case were that high, probably on the order of 5%, but what I believe about the errors and what we know about them are two very different things.

We simply don't know what the errors were, so we are not in a position to judge the measurement reliably.

You contended that no reputable scientist would ever publish a measurement for which the error was larger than about 10%. I have simply shown that this assertion is made up of whole cloth. It's rubbish, and you go on to assert it again later in this post.

My point is that the analysts involved are telling us that within acceptable limits the objects were approximately (note the inclusion of that word, it means that they were definitely aware of measurement error) 30 ft in diameter and travelling at an altitude of 15000 feet.
Acceptable to whom? To them? To their bosses? To the general scientific community? To you?

As for the measurement errors you cite in the Hipparcos data, they are of an entirely different nature. This can be determined logically because if the measurement errors in that data 100% (or more), that means that whatever measurement is being taken, it could have negative values. However, when it comes to size and distance measurements, negative values are meaningless. That is, the greatest possible measurement error in such a calculation is 100% - meaning a potential size and altitude of zero… and that is obviously nonsense.
Parallax is a distance measurement. Oops, you're wrong again. That's why I asked you the question about the negative parallax value in the Tycho catalogue. You can measure a negative value for parallax, but the object in question cannot possibly have a negative parallax in reality. I suggest you read up on what parallax is and how it is determined, and maybe you'll understand.


Therefore it is impossible for the measurement error to be 100% because the scientists simply would not have reported the data.
I'm not suggesting the error was 100%, I'm simply demonstrating that your assertion that it couldn't possibly be more than 5% or 10% because no scientist would ever publish such an error is complete cobblers.

We must then consider what reasonable and acceptable measurement error would have allowed the scientists to report as they did. Given that the 5% (p<.05) value is ubiquitous and all scientists have that value firmly in their head as a “guide” to what is acceptable and what is not when reporting data,
Utterly dependent on field of research and circumstances. In my field of research (stellar distance and motion measurement) errors of 20% are perfectly acceptable, so again, your assertion is wrong, just plain wrong.

we can reasonably assume that the measurement error would have been around that value. We must also remember that these professionals obviously knew their stuff.
Knew it so well that they only managed to get one viable measurement in two runs.

They were involved in producing the data on test rocket firings, where accuracy would have been paramount. It is simply not plausible to contend that the data reported contained measurement error margins large enough to render the data meaningless.
Who said anything about rendering the data meaningless? Oh yes, you did in an effort to discredit my argument. I, on the other hand, have never contended any such thing.

Getting back to Venezuela:

Okay, if you are contending “heavy metal poisoning” as a plausible mundane explanation then you will be able to provide a plausible scenario in which that could occur. Over to you…
I said it was far fetched, and I never said it was a plausible mundane scenario.

I have to ask, do you read the actual words that I write, because I said "Given that there were no man-made radiation sources capable of producing the sort of dosages required for their injuries then it's not unreasonable to suppose other sources for the injuries that humans couldn't produce." What part of that suggests that I'm thinking of a mundane explanation?

Your explanation is neither mundane (man-made radiation source in 1886 Venezuela?), nor very plausible (the symptoms don't fit radiation poisoning), so why does mine have to be?
 
I did not say the people here contended that, I stated that they believed that. They contend UFOs but believe UFMOs.
And I think people here actually say what they believe, which is something you don't seem to accept, for some reason.

Here is where you talk “straight past” me. Everyone looks for mundane solutions, but when none are found, people are then free to speculate
Yes they are, but it will be precisely as pointless as speculating on the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.

The UFO debunker’s stance is: It is a UFMO until proved otherwise. That is, there does exist a mundane explanation, it is just that we can’t see it at this point because we do not have enough or the correct information.
I don't think that is true. In fact, I don't think that myself, and (again, people can correct me if I'm wrong) that's not what I get from the posts in this thread.

My stance is: It is a UFO because there is enough information to rule out all plausible mundane explanations.
And only that is where the disagreement lies. Not what on constitutes a UFO.

This is a stance that relies solely on the imagination of those thinking about the evidence.
And as demonstrated in this thread, imagination does not always suffice to see the explanation, as mundane as it may be.
 
No, that isn't my point at all. I have said before, and will say again now for clarity. I doubt that the errors in the White Sands case were that high, probably on the order of 5%, but what I believe about the errors and what we know about them are two very different things.

We simply don't know what the errors were, so we are not in a position to judge the measurement reliably.
Because it is impossible for we, as the human race, to actually know anything (as it can be shown that holding a true, justified belief does not necessarily count as knowledge), therefore we are reduced to reasonable - or plausible – inference to stand in for knowledge. In the White Sands case it is entirely reasonable to infer that because the analysts were trained professionals, working for the US military on secret rocket tests, in a position where accuracy of measurement was absolutely critical to their normal function, that they would not have reported figures where the measurement error made them meaningless in the context. That is, when they reported groups of objects of approximately 30 ft in diameter, flying at high speed at an approximate altitude of 150,000 feet, then we can be sure that those reported statistics were a reasonably accurate representation of the facts.

You contended that no reputable scientist would ever publish a measurement for which the error was larger than about 10%. I have simply shown that this assertion is made up of whole cloth. It's rubbish, and you go on to assert it again later in this post.
I think you will find that I was talking about peer-reviewed publication in scientific journals wollery and I never mentioned a specific figure… you are simply making things up now wollery. To demonstrate this the following is a precise record of the conversation in this regard:

It began when you stated:
”In reference to the White Sands case, I know lots of highly trained researchers who publish results with large errors. It's better to publish a result with a large error than to not publish any results at all, particularly if you're under pressure to publish some sort of result.”
And I replied:
”Oh, I see now where your get your low regard for research professionals... But if your contentions were true, then you should definitely report the researchers involved to the relevant journal’s editorial board. The researchers seem to be (on the face of your statements) committing fraud - for no peer reviewed journal will knowingly publish data with “large errors” in it. Such actions as you cite here have at least the potential to bring the researchers and journals involved, not to mention science itself, into disrepute.”
Then wollery:
”I never said that they published results and kept the large errors secret, I said they published results with large errors. That is, the large errors were published along with the results. I can point you to lots of high impact scientific journals that have published results with errors of 50% or more. In my own field of research errors of 20% to 30% are common. The first release of Hipparcos data gave some results with errors in excess of 100%, and that was a hugely lauded, highly publicly advertised, expensive NASA funded project.”
And wollery’s follow-up:
”For the record, the astronomical data with errors in excess of 100% that I referred to in previous posts is the Hipparcos catalogue, and it was sponsored by ESA, not NASA (sorry for the confusion). Don't take my word for it, and don't just dismiss it. Look it up for yourself. It's available free online. Look up the parallax and proper motion data, and you'll find errors well in excess of 100% for some stars.”
Rramjet:
”Looking up the catalogue you cite (here is the actual reference: http://archive.ast.cam.ac.uk/hipp/) I simply cannot find what you are talking about. Perhaps you can provide an example of the stars you are talking about and the search parameters you used?”
Wollery:
”You need to set your search radius to be quite large, at least 3 degrees, and type in an RA and Dec for the search. I entered an RA of 15 00 00 and Dec of +20 00 00, and ticked the boxes for Parallax, PM(RA), PM(Dec) and their errors, with a search box of 03 00 00. That returns 20 results, the 16th of which has a parallax of 0.87 with an error of +/- 1.21, which is a far greater than 100% error. Do it with a larger search box, or change the RA and Dec. You'll find loads more examples. The errors on the PM tend to be smaller, but still sometimes in the region of 50%.

Now try it with the Tycho catalogue, that's where the real fun starts! With the same input coordinates as I gave you above the first star on the list has a parallax of -12.3 +/- 44.7!!!! Ignoring the error (almost 400%) for a second, do you understand what a negative parallax implies?”

Rramjet:
”As for the measurement errors you cite in the Hipparcos data, they are of an entirely different nature. This can be determined logically because if the measurement errors in that data 100% (or more), that means that whatever measurement is being taken, it could have negative values. However, when it comes to size and distance measurements, negative values are meaningless. That is, the greatest possible measurement error in such a calculation is 100% - meaning a potential size and altitude of zero… and that is obviously nonsense. Therefore it is impossible for the measurement error to be 100% because the scientists simply would not have reported the data. We must then consider what reasonable and acceptable measurement error would have allowed the scientists to report as they did. Given that the 5% (p<.05) value is ubiquitous and all scientists have that value firmly in their head as a “guide” to what is acceptable and what is not when reporting data, we can reasonably assume that the measurement error would have been around that value. We must also remember that these professionals obviously knew their stuff. They were involved in producing the data on test rocket firings, where accuracy would have been paramount. It is simply not plausible to contend that the data reported contained measurement error margins large enough to render the data meaningless.”
Wollery:
”You contended that no reputable scientist would ever publish a measurement for which the error was larger than about 10%. I have simply shown that this assertion is made up of whole cloth. It's rubbish, and you go on to assert it again later in this post.”

So… the actual record shows that what you have stated here is complete and utter …(to use your own word) ”rubbish”.

Parallax is a distance measurement. Oops, you're wrong again. That's why I asked you the question about the negative parallax value in the Tycho catalogue. You can measure a negative value for parallax, but the object in question cannot possibly have a negative parallax in reality. I suggest you read up on what parallax is and how it is determined, and maybe you'll understand.
You are simply attempting to compare chalk and cheese and thus we end up talking at cross purposes. Very simply, parallax can have a negative value because the observed positional shift of the star in question is in the opposite direction than that expected. That is a completely different thing to taking a direct measurement of the size of an object from a photograph (as was done in the White Sands case). We can determine size from a photo if we know the distance to the object (and the distance is achieved by simple trigonometry resulting from “triangulation” – that is having two or more observation points focus on the same object, thereby giving us the necessary angles and a baseline distance).

I'm not suggesting the error was 100%, I'm simply demonstrating that your assertion that it couldn't possibly be more than 5% or 10% because no scientist would ever publish such an error is complete cobblers.
Again, you are talking at cross purposes – trying to compare chalk and cheese (see above). Of course it is impossible to have a negative size for the observed objects and the measurement error values will depend on the accuracy of the original angles and baseline measurement – and we can reasonably assume that these were accounted for when the analysts cited their results.

Utterly dependent on field of research and circumstances. In my field of research (stellar distance and motion measurement) errors of 20% are perfectly acceptable, so again, your assertion is wrong, just plain wrong.
In your field maybe – but chalk and cheese wollery, chalk and cheese…

Knew it so well that they only managed to get one viable measurement in two runs.
Actually it is extraordinary that they even got one successful triangulation considering that they were dealing with groups of “up to 8” tiny (at that altitude) objects and in consideration of the fact that the two observation stations had to be focussed on precisely the same object (the first triangulation was considered to have failed because they deemed that this was not the case).

Who said anything about rendering the data meaningless? Oh yes, you did in an effort to discredit my argument. I, on the other hand, have never contended any such thing.
Your contention of large error margins was an attempt by you to render the reported figures meaningless in the context. That was the whole point of you attack wollery. That is you contended that the error margins could have been so large as to render the reported size and distance measurements meaningless and therefore we have support for Elterman’s statements in the “final” report that “nothing of significance” was found!

Back to Venezuela and wollery’s contentions concerning “heavy metal poisoning” I stated:
“Okay, if you are contending “heavy metal poisoning” as a plausible mundane explanation then you will be able to provide a plausible scenario in which that could occur. Over to you…”
I said it was far fetched, and I never said it was a plausible mundane scenario.
Okay, if it is “far fetched” why did you raise it then?

I have to ask, do you read the actual words that I write, because I said "Given that there were no man-made radiation sources capable of producing the sort of dosages required for their injuries then it's not unreasonable to suppose other sources for the injuries that humans couldn't produce." What part of that suggests that I'm thinking of a mundane explanation?
The words ” it's not unreasonable to suppose other sources for the injuries” in conjunction with ”You mentioned above the possibility of them breathing in radioactive smoke, but what if it was smoke laden with heavy metals? We know that the symptoms also fit with poisoning by some heavy metals, and that they could enter the system in the form of smoke particles. This would also explain the absence of the expected radiation poisoning symptoms.” is a dead giveaway wollery (despite whatever else you might have to say on the matter).

Your explanation is neither mundane (man-made radiation source in 1886 Venezuela?), nor very plausible (the symptoms don't fit radiation poisoning), so why does mine have to be?
That is the whole point wollery. Manmade radiation in 1886 Venezuela? That is most definitely out of the question! Totally implausible. Then we search for other plausible explanations – and guess what – we don’t find any!

So we are left with what looks like a radiation source (brilliant light, loud humming) coupled with injuries that closely resemble radiation poisoning – while at the same time a manmade radiation source in 1886 Venezuela is totally implausible and yet we can find no other plausible mundane explanation.

THAT is a mystery wollery, pure and simple. It epitomises what UFO cases are all about (the impossibility of the obvious “natural” explanation in the face of no other plausible mundane explanation available) and it is one reason why I presented the case.
 
Rramjet, you are now getting bogged down in "the minutia" as you put it.

This whole argument started because you originally claimed that no reputable scientist would ever publish a result with a large error. In post 1734 you give a value of 10% as a large error. I stated that I knew of several people who published results with large errors. You suggested that I should report them for fraud, since no journal would ever knowingly publish a result with a large error. I pointed out that errors of more than 50% have been published in the full knowledge of both the researchers and the journals.

So you have made two assertions that are demonstrably false.

You also state that a parallax measurement can have a negative value. Whilst this is true it is actually a demonstration of how large the errors are, since in reality no star can possibly have a physical parallax of less than zero. Parallax is a triangulation, and the only way to measure a negative value for a triangulation is to have errors on the measurement that are larger than the actual physical angle that the object subtends. That's why I pointed out the negative value in the Tycho data.

Since the size of the object in the White Sands case is completely dependent on the distance measurement the two are not independent. If the distance measurement is wrong then so is the size measurement. If you halve the distance you halve the physical size.

I also have a question for you - where were stations P10 and M7 in relation to the objects and the base?


In regards to the Venezuela case, please explain how you can still contend that the injuries resemble radiation poisoning in the absence of so many symptoms that are typical of radiation poisoning. Your radiation hypothesis quite simply doesn't fit the data.
 
Rramjet, you are now getting bogged down in "the minutia" as you put it.
I am trying to get away from it, but you seem to keep dragging us back there…

This whole argument started because you originally claimed that no reputable scientist would ever publish a result with a large error. In post 1734…
Post 1734!? Ummm, okay…
Let us now consider the error margins you make so much of. Suppose the triangulation accuracy was to within about 10% (a large error margin) - so that the error bounds might be on the order of 15,000 ft. This means the objects could have been at an altitude between 135000 and 165000 ft.


…you give a value of 10% as a large error…
What I meant way back then was of course that considering the 5% value as the upper limit for accurate reporting, then 10% would be considered to be a large error margin… but that was post 1734! It is now post 8171! And you are talking about error margins of up to 150%! Not only that, the comparison between “error margins” for a direct size measurement (from a photo) and a triangulated distance measurement with a parallax statistic simply cannot be done. For a start the distance and size measurements in the White Sands case cannot be negative – whereas parallax statistics can take on negative values. There is simply no comparison.

…I stated that I knew of several people who published results with large errors.
Again to use your terminology…”rubbish”. You were responding to the posts beginning with my post 8114 (not my 1734)! Specifically here:
In the White Sands case it is absolutely implausible to suppose that the engineers and mathematicians were not telling the truth – and so it is with most (if not all) the other cases I have presented in this thread. As for “error”, in the White Sands case, it is also implausible to suppose that such highly trained researchers would report any measurement that they did not have absolute confidence in. As for the other cases I have presented, such absolute precision is not necessary to explore the extant evidence.
To which you responded:
In reference to the White Sands case, I know lots of highly trained researchers who publish results with large errors. It's better to publish a result with a large error than to not publish any results at all, particularly if you're under pressure to publish some sort of result
This statement from you was not a response to my post 1734 at all! It was a direct response to my post 8114 (quoted above).

You suggested that I should report them for fraud, since no journal would ever knowingly publish a result with a large error.
Sure I suggested you report a fraud - for if large errors were reported without acknowledgement then that is fraud (and the subject we were talking about was “unacknowledged” error margins in the White Sands case).

I pointed out that errors of more than 50% have been published in the full knowledge of both the researchers and the journals.
This again is mere unfounded assertion. You need to show that a direct size measurement (or a triangulated distance measurement) of the kind we are talking about here in the White Sands case has been published in a peer reviewed scientific Journal. My money is on that you simply cannot.

So you have made two assertions that are demonstrably false.
I think I will leave that up to the readers to judge.

You also state that a parallax measurement can have a negative value. Whilst this is true it is actually a demonstration of how large the errors are, since in reality no star can possibly have a physical parallax of less than zero. Parallax is a triangulation, and the only way to measure a negative value for a triangulation is to have errors on the measurement that are larger than the actual physical angle that the object subtends. That's why I pointed out the negative value in the Tycho data.
No …chalk and cheese wollery. The only reason parallax can have a negative value is because the error margin is so large that the star appears to move in the opposite direction to that expected (thus a negative reading). This negative value is then reported because if it was not the set of readings taken (thus enabling a mean parallax statistic and a confidence interval to be reported - note also a confidence interval is not strictly a “measurement error” value) would not be representative of the true data set (you cannot just kick data out because you don’t like it – to do so would distort the data set). This practice is simply not applicable to the type of measurement we are talking about in the White Sands case – one simply cannot have a negative size or distance – and if the measurement error margins were so large as to return a potential negative value, then the data would simply not have been reported. And “no useful data” would have been the conclusion. Instead the analysts reported a figure and we can take that figure as a reasonable representation of the facts of the matter.

Since the size of the object in the White Sands case is completely dependent on the distance measurement the two are not independent. If the distance measurement is wrong then so is the size measurement. If you halve the distance you halve the physical size.
So..? It has been established that it would be implausible (and you agreed) that the “error” would have been unlikely to have been greater than about 5% (the “usual” level beyond which specific acknowledgement would be required). So what is your point?

I also have a question for you - where were stations P10 and M7 in relation to the objects and the base?
The summary report does not tell us that. The “base” (for the purpose of triangulation) is of course the distance measurement between the two stations. You are not going to contend that they could not measure that accurately are you?

In regards to the Venezuela case, please explain how you can still contend that the injuries resemble radiation poisoning in the absence of so many symptoms that are typical of radiation poisoning. Your radiation hypothesis quite simply doesn't fit the data.
Oh I don’t know, just the symptoms of radiation poisoning I guess. Besides there is no precise, specific symptomatology that is common to all people (apart from the ones stated in the article I guess…). Besides, I have always stated that the symptoms resemble those of radiation poisoning. There was an ostensible radiation source…there seems to be no other plausible mundane explanation… it’s a mystery wollery. It epitomises UFO cases in general. The obvious “natural” explanation does not seem to fit – yet no other mundane explanation is plausible… what more do you want me to say about it?
 
I see. So when you said that no scientist would publish results with large errors, what you actually meant was, it's extremely unlikely that any scientist would publish results of this kind with errors in excess of some arbitrary percentage (about 5%).

And when you said that no journal would publish results with large errors what you meant was, it is extremely unlikely that any journal would publish results of this kind with errors in excess of some arbitrary percentage (again, about 5%).

Maybe if you didn't make such sweeping statements about all scientists, and no journal then you wouldn't get called on it.

But you're right, the errors are what they are, and it is only correct to publish the errors with the data, no matter what the size of those errors are.

So remind me, how big were the errors in the White Sands case?
 
I see. So when you said that no scientist would publish results with large errors…
I stated: ”…no peer reviewed journal will knowingly publish…”. In my opinion, the only thing worse than an unfounded assertion is one founded on false information

…what you actually meant was, it's extremely unlikely that any scientist would publish results of this kind with errors in excess of some arbitrary percentage (about 5%).
The 5% value is hardly arbitrary – the value is virtually seared into every scientist’s brain … and of course I meant “of this kind” …we were discussing the White Sands data. You stated: ”In reference to the White Sands case, I know lots of highly trained researchers who publish results with large errors. It's better to publish a result with a large error than to not publish any results at all, particularly if you're under pressure to publish some sort of result.”

I took that statement to mean that you knew of scientists who had submitted for publication error filled data to scientific journals merely on the basis that “it is better to publish” something, rather than publish nothing. I simply considered that to be fraudulent behaviour.

And when you said that no journal would publish results with large errors what you meant was, it is extremely unlikely that any journal would publish results of this kind with errors in excess of some arbitrary percentage (again, about 5%).
No, I meant no scientific journal would knowingly publish error filled data.

Maybe if you didn't make such sweeping statements about all scientists, and no journal then you wouldn't get called on it.
I stand by my statements.

But you're right, the errors are what they are, and it is only correct to publish the errors with the data, no matter what the size of those errors are.
Perhaps I can direct your attention to confidence intervals…

So remind me, how big were the errors in the White Sands case?
Small enough so that the professionals involved could report summary values so that the reader would understand that what was observed were groups of approximately 30 ft diameter objects, travelling at high speed at approximately 150,000 feet. These reported results of course rule out all plausible mundane explanations because the only manmade thing that could achieve that kind of altitude in 1947-1950 were V2 rockets and they certainly were not 30ft in diameter - nor did they fly in groups of up to eight... No mundane astronomical objects match the description either…

So once again we are left with a genuine mystery. The “natural” explanation (manmade technology or meteors) is just not plausible and we have no other plausible mundane explanation - so we are left with groups of up to eight UFOs, of approximately 30ft diameter, travelling at high speed at approximately 150,000 feet (http://www.brumac.8k.com/WhiteSandsProof/WhiteSandsProof.html). Perhaps though you can explain them?
 
”…no peer reviewed journal will knowingly publish…”.
Unfounded assertion.

I've shown data filled with large errors.

The 5% value is hardly arbitrary – the value is virtually seared into every scientist’s brain
Unfounded assertion. Perhaps you could show some evidence for this.

… and of course I meant “of this kind” …we were discussing the White Sands data. You stated: ”In reference to the White Sands case, I know lots of highly trained researchers who publish results with large errors. It's better to publish a result with a large error than to not publish any results at all, particularly if you're under pressure to publish some sort of result.”

I took that statement to mean that you knew of scientists who had submitted for publication error filled data to scientific journals merely on the basis that “it is better to publish” something, rather than publish nothing. I simply considered that to be fraudulent behaviour.
How is it fraudulent if they include their errors? That statement simply doesn't make sense!

No, I meant no scientific journal would knowingly publish error filled data.
They're less likely to publish data with no errors.

I stand by my statements.
Which are unfounded assertions.

Perhaps I can direct your attention to confidence intervals…
Or maybe sigma values, or chi squared tests, or KS tests or Spearman rankings.

Don't try to school me in statistics.

My point was that data should be published with the correct errors. If the errors are large then they are large, but they should be properly calculated and included with the data.

Small enough so that the professionals involved could report summary values so that the reader would understand that what was observed were groups of approximately 30 ft diameter objects, travelling at high speed at approximately 150,000 feet.
And how small is that? How small would those people have considered small enough?

These reported results of course rule out all plausible mundane explanations because the only manmade thing that could achieve that kind of altitude in 1947-1950 were V2 rockets and they certainly were not 30ft in diameter - nor did they fly in groups of up to eight... No mundane astronomical objects match the description either…

So once again we are left with a genuine mystery. The “natural” explanation (manmade technology or meteors) is just not plausible and we have no other plausible mundane explanation - so we are left with groups of up to eight UFOs, of approximately 30ft diameter, travelling at high speed at approximately 150,000 feet (http://www.brumac.8k.com/WhiteSandsProof/WhiteSandsProof.html). Perhaps though you can explain them?
No, I can't. Can you?
 
My point was that data should be published with the correct errors. If the errors are large then they are large, but they should be properly calculated and included with the data.
We only have the summary report – not the original full report. Neither do we have the film that was taken using the Cinetheodolites… Of course that leads one to wonder why these have not been publically released… especially if the official line on this case is that no information was gained. Why not then release the original report and the films and settle the matter once and for all?

Of course this goes to the heart of “conspiracy theories” and questions concerning whether there exists a government cover-up. This is a topic that has not been formally discussed in this thread – but there does exist some documentary information to inform us. Apart from the elephant in the room – that is that most official investigative reports have included a statement in conclusion to the effect that UFOs represent no threat to national security (eg; the Robertson Panel), yet UFO documents remain classified to this day, with many FOI requests being rejected on the grounds of national security!

Stating the obvious aside, official secrecy can be traced back to project Grudge and the 1949 SAC memo to the FBI which noted that, on the subject of “Flying Saucers”:
“…this matter is considered secret by Intelligence Officers of both the Army and the Air Force.” (http://www.ufologie.net/htm/grudge01.htm)​
Thus began an official secrecy policy. So what could the public expect from its government in the way of explanation and information about UFOs? A Canadian Joint Intelligence Committee Memorandum from G.S. Austin, Director of Air Intelligence August 4, 1950 tells us:
“The present USAF policy is to play down the subject, investigating only when considered necessary by the area commander without any special arrangements for reporting or investigation. It seems that a similar policy on our part would be wise and that it would be undesirable to produce a special questionnaire or make any arrangements for investigation since this would tend to give publicity to the matter. It is suggested therefore that sighting reports should not be solicited…”​
Further, the 1953 Robertson Panel recommended:
”That the national security agencies take immediate steps to strip the Unidentified Flying Objects of the special status they have been given and the aura of mystery they have unfortunately acquired…” (http://www.cufon.org/cufon/robert.htm)​
Of course the Condon (1966) saw things a little differently:
” It has been contended that the subject has been shrouded in official secrecy. We conclude otherwise. We have no evidence of secrecy concerning UFO reports.” (http://files.ncas.org/condon/text/sec-i.htm)​
Such a blatant failure to recognise the facts of the matter are somewhat staggering. Perhaps Condon kept his eyes closed throughout his investigation? Or was there another reason? Of course the (1966) Low memo provides the rationale for Condon:
“…the possibility that such things as UFOs exist. It is not respectable to give serious consideration to such a possibility … one would have to go so far as to consider the possibility that saucers, if some of the observations are verified, behave according to a set of physical laws unknown to us. The simple act of admitting these possibilities just as possibilities puts us beyond the pale, and we would loose more in prestige in the scientific community than we could possibly gain…”

“Our study would be conducted almost exclusively by non-believers who, although they couldn't possibly prove a negative result, could and probably would add an impressive body of evidence that there is no reality to the observations. The trick would be, I think, to describe the project so that, to the public, it would appear a totally objective study but, to the scientific community, would present the image of a group of nonbelievers trying their best to be objective, but having an almost zero expectation of finding a saucer.”​
So basically Condon was operating under the considerations of not wanting to admit the possibility of UFOs on the grounds of “losing prestige” and that the “trick” would be to merely “appear” objective while actually having already come to the conclusion that there is nothing to UFOs. Condon actually admitted this:

In January 1967, Condon stated in a lecture that, “It is my inclination right now to recommend that the Government get out of this business. My attitude right now is that there's nothing to it.” He added “but I'm not supposed to reach a conclusion for another year...” (http://www.freedomofinfo.org/science/science_research.pdf) So much for objectivity.

Thus when Condon concluded in his official report:
” Our general conclusion is that nothing has come from the study of UFOs in the past 21 years that has added to scientific knowledge. Careful consideration of the record as it is available to us leads us to conclude that further extensive study of UFOs probably cannot be justified in the expectation that science will be advanced thereby.” (http://files.ncas.org/condon/text/sec-i.htm)​

We should of course take this with as large a grain of salt as we can manage – we should be suspicious – especially considering 29% of cases examined in Condon remain unexplained to this day!

So we have secrecy and denial as official policy. Now we can add in the ridicule and the circle will be complete. Hoyt notes:
”The Arnold sighting was crucial for the development of the context of UFO sightings in the United States. The two words, “flying saucer,” set the tone for the unexplained sightings that followed; they provided a useful and easily accessible label for the unexplained phenomenon, and, unfortunately, established the giggle factor from the very beginning.

Initially, press accounts were neutral. Reporters stated literally what people said they had seen. But as the reports of sightings continued to pour in, and no physical evidence surfaced as proof, the press began to ridicule the phenomena. By the end of July 1947, newspaper reporters generally automatically placed anyone who had seen something strange in the sky in the crackpot category (Jacobs 1975, p. 32). Arnold himself became the subject of public ridicule. “If I saw a ten-story building flying through the air,” he said later of his experiences, “I would never say a word about it.” (Jacobs 1975, p. 35) An Air Force investigator privately noted in mid-July that Arnold was “practically a moron in the eyes of the majority of the population of the United
States.” (Bloecher 1967, pp. 1–11)”
(http://www.narcap.org/commentary/ufocritique.pdf)​
The effects of the official secrecy and denial and of media ridicule are lamentable – as Hynek (in: http://www.freedomofinfo.org/science/science_research.pdf) points out in reference to 1982 Hudson Valley Boomerang (http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc680.htm):
”It would appear that we really have TWO astounding stories, rather than just one... different but related... and equally incomprehensible: the story of the low-flying luminous Boomerang (in itself which could rank high in the annals of science fiction... if it were science fiction!) and the second, a totally unaccountable dereliction of duty (and there seems to be no other word for it), a complete indifference to accountability.

It was a malady which appeared to plunge all who encountered it, EXCEPT the witnesses, into a deadly stupor. Such a malady, or perhaps a virulent virus of apathy and indifference to duty, could immobilize cities and a whole country. Of course, we don't know what the Boomerang was really about, for:

-- the Police and other law enforcement officers were derelict and failed in their duty to assist the many who called [in] fear and danger, as well as in awe and wonder.

-- the FAA utterly failed to be concerned for air safety, flight rules, navigation lights, when told that some utterly strange and possibly menacing object was cruising close over streets and houses.

-- the Military was derelict by not attending to public safety and matters of National Defense (the country could have been subtly invaded!)

-- the Scientists failed to uphold their "Hippocratic" oath of science: they were derelict in following the quest [of] an outstanding mystery.

-- the media, well, where were they? Truly derelict. Always avid news hounds, rushing to their typewriters or microphones to rush the news to the world (good, bad and trivial), but where were they? Hardly any of the 50 States heard the Boomerang story.

Why? Utterly indifferent and apathetic? If so, why?

Of the two stories, that of the Boomerang is by far the more directly told. Bizarre and fantastic though it may be (and is) it merely needs competent retelling. The facts are on record. From the hundreds of cassette tapes in the thousands of statements made by witnesses, the Boomerang is a matter of record. But the second story, well, that is another matter.”
​
The above cited documentary information represents merely the tip of the iceberg in documentary evidence concerning official secrecy and denial and the climate of “ridicule and fear” that has built up around the topic of UFOs. To this day the US government holds UFO files under secrecy and denies any involvement in the study of UFOs. The media still tends toward ridicule as a first response – but that seems to be slowly changing – at least we can all live in hope. Of course the first step in change is to recognise the problem. Once people recognise and acknowledge that an official policy of secrecy and denial does exist, then that will represent the first step toward change.
 
The US government and military can't win in this situation. If they investigate every report and publish all their findings then the conspiracy theorists will loudly proclaim that, "The US are interested in this, so there must be something to it, but they aren't telling us the whole story. It must be a serious threat to National Security!", and if they don't investigate every report, and make some findings secret then, "They know something, what aren't they telling us?"

Whatever they do they'll be accused of a cover up.
 
The US government and military can't win in this situation. If they investigate every report and publish all their findings then the conspiracy theorists will loudly proclaim that, "The US are interested in this, so there must be something to it, but they aren't telling us the whole story. It must be a serious threat to National Security!", and if they don't investigate every report, and make some findings secret then, "They know something, what aren't they telling us?"

Whatever they do they'll be accused of a cover up.
The funny thing about conspiracy theories is that sometimes they are right! Nevertheless, are you really contending that if the US government threw open to public scrutiny all of its files concerning UFOs they would be accused of a cover-up? Well… perhaps you are right, but considering the historical official secrecy and denial, who could blame people if they persisted in claims of a cover-up? The government has broken the people’s trust in this area – people would have every right to be suspicious and about any current disclosure – it would take time and real effort for the government to rebuild the broken trust – but this is a problem of its own making, you cannot blame the people or use their potential reactions as an excuse for the government not to try to address the problem.

I suspect the problem here might be that the government and military have for so long told us that there was nothing to UFOs so that for them to release their documents on the topic now would probably indicate that they had been lying to us all the while. They simply don't want to feel the public backlash.

And on that score I am of two minds. The government either really does not know what UFOs are and the people might then consider them to have been derelict in their duties as well as lying to the public, or that they do know what is going on and again the public might then consider them to have been derelict in their duties as well as lying to the public … ohhhh, you mean the government can’t win? Well phooey to them! They have created the mess through their own actions, let them regain the people’s trust by correcting their own errors - and cop whatever approbation is (probably rightly) coming to them. Release the files, cop the booing and hissing and then move forward, dealing with the phenomenon (or phenomena) in a rational, critical and thoughtful way.

Unless of course you fear the reality! And this is, I suspect, the real heart of the matter. This is at the very the core of “secrecy, denial and ridicule”. And the fear is well founded! Perhaps we are being “invaded” and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it. We then see ourselves going the way of aboriginal peoples everywhere: enslavement, loss of identity, extinction. Moreover, according to all reports, the “paranormal” (including UFOs) is a very strange beast indeed. In fact it behaves almost as if it is laughing at our conception of reality (the concept of the Cosmic Joker). Teasing us, sometimes gently, sometimes in sinister ways, with some alternate reality (or realities) that might threaten the very foundations of our knowledge. And our knowledge is us! We define ourselves through what we think we know. And if everything we thought we knew was suddenly turned (nonsense/irrelevant...) then that threatens the core of our very being. Oh yes, the fear is well founded.

But that is a discussion we need to have. We need to confront these fears head on. What if we are being invaded? What if alternate realities exist which might turn what we think we know into mush? How would we deal with such eventualities? The risks seem clearly defined (and rather stark and clear cut they are too) but where is a consideration of risk management? What systemic and programmatic structures that would be necessary to deal any such eventualities?

The problem of risk management in the face of an overwhelming fear seems to paralyse humanity and leave them open to all sorts of snake oil salesmen. Witness what happened to the global warming debate (even the term “climate change” is a watered down and corrupted version of what is actually occurring – global warming!). There was a scientific consensus. No scientist demurred - Global Warming was a reality. Dire predictions were made. The public began to fear. Something needed to be done. Sacrifices would have to be made… Then came the snake oil salesmen – the denialists. Born out of lessons learned from Big Tobacco, funded by fossil fuel, mining and chemical corporate giants and hiding behind the façade of “liberal think tanks”, the denialists cast their doubt and derision onto the fertile ground of public anxiety - and the public was duped - again.

The public deserves… no … the public has a right to have an open and honest debate about any potential risks to their survival – and that includes what we most fear about UFOs. The public has a right to expect their elected representatives – the government – to lead the way on such debates, to promote rational and critical thought about the issues and to act as a peer review arbiter for promoting accurate and timely information flow. Hynek pointed to a “dereliction of duty” – he was right. At present out government is derelict in its duty toward us.

That is what sceptics and critical thinkers everywhere should be upset about. It is counterproductive to our survival that such issues are cloaked in an atmosphere of secrecy, denial and ridicule. The evidence almost becomes irrelevant (in so far as it has already established that something is going on…). It is the debate that matters. The public’s right to discuss matters that potentially impact on our survival as a species and to have the debate lead competently by our leaders.

The first step in that process would be for the US government to release its UFO files and institute a public peer-review structure.
 
The funny thing about conspiracy theories is that sometimes they are right!

So, are you suggesting that we spend money and resources on all of them or just your pet theories? I much prefer if resources are spent combating real problems that we know exist. Antibiotic resistance, global warming, etc.

Nevertheless, are you really contending that if the US government threw open to public scrutiny all of its files concerning UFOs they would be accused of a cover-up?

Even a cursory reading of wollerys post should reveal that this is NOT what he said.

considering the historical official secrecy and denial, who could blame people if they persisted in claims of a cover-up?

Who are these "people" you are talking about? It might surprise you but most people don't even think about any percived coverup.

The government has broken the people’s trust in this area

Which goverment? I'm quite sure that your government is not mine.

I suspect the problem here might be that the government and military have for so long told us that there was nothing to UFOs so that for them to release their documents on the topic now would probably indicate that they had been lying to us all the while. They simply don't want to feel the public backlash.

Or, they don't really care about what a few conspiracy theorists think about them and doesn't find the effort worthwhile ?

Unless of course you fear the reality! And this is, I suspect, the real heart of the matter. This is at the very the core of “secrecy, denial and ridicule”. And the fear is well founded! Perhaps we are being “invaded” and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.

OMG! Invaded! But wait...where's the evidence of that? You can't even produce one single undisputed case where "aliens" have visited us.

We then see ourselves going the way of aboriginal peoples everywhere: enslavement, loss of identity, extinction. Moreover, according to all reports, the “paranormal” (including UFOs) is a very strange beast indeed. In fact it behaves almost as if it is laughing at our conception of reality (the concept of the Cosmic Joker). Teasing us, sometimes gently, sometimes in sinister ways, with some alternate reality (or realities) that might threaten the very foundations of our knowledge. And our knowledge is us! We define ourselves through what we think we know. And if everything we thought we knew was suddenly turned (nonsense/irrelevant...) then that threatens the core of our very being. Oh yes, the fear is well founded.

Please start by providing evidence of any "alien" even accidentally visiting. Then we can talk about invasion plans and enslavement.

But that is a discussion we need to have. We need to confront these fears head on. What if we are being invaded? What if alternate realities exist which might turn what we think we know into mush? How would we deal with such eventualities? The risks seem clearly defined (and rather stark and clear cut they are too) but where is a consideration of risk management? What systemic and programmatic structures that would be necessary to deal any such eventualities?

I'd rather not have my tax money spent to protect a few creduloids from irrational fears thank you.
 
Nevertheless, are you really contending that if the US government threw open to public scrutiny all of its files concerning UFOs they would be accused of a cover-up?
No, I'm not, which makes most of the rest of your post irrelevant twaddle.
 
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