UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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In your diagram (originally posted #5091, p. 128), you placed an arrow pointing SE indicating “Direction of UFO Travel”
South WEST :rolleyes: If you're having trouble with what the points on a compass are called, you could use this handy reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compass

I pointed out, in consideration of the witness statements, that this was an incorrect assessment.

You persisted in claiming that it WAS correct.
I claimed it was the general direction of travel... It's exact direction of travel is irrelevant. As we don't have a Sat Nav plot, it's never going to be an accurate indication. Which part of this don't you understand?

I then stated:
... Lot's of stuff that we've already gone through... yada yada yada...
So if it's heading North West, is that where we can find the evidence of Aliens?

The object reduces in size by about 10% between the first and second photo.

This is how you determine that.
Using the photos at:
Photo 1. (http://www.debunker.com/images2/Trent1_Full_400dpi.jpg)
Photo 2. (http://www.debunker.com/images2/Trent2_Full_400dpi.jpg)

First thing to note is that the photos are of different size.
However, if you measure a common distance over the background hills on both images (I used the tall tree on the central hill measured to the top of the bluff to the right of that) you will note that there is about a 6% differential.
Second, using a capable image processing program – zoom both pictures to the same proportion (I used about 850%) and measure the UFOs.
Next subtract 6% of the UFO size in the first picture (to compensate for the size differential) and then render the two sizes as a proportion (or percentage) and you will see that the UFO in picture 2 decreases in size between the first and second photos by at least ten percent (incidentally, Hartmann calculates this to be 8% - but lets not quibble). The point is that the UFO moved away from the observers, which means travelling NORTHWEST. THIS is how the “calculations are made”. THIS is the “proof” showing your statement ”…which means it was very nearly the same distance away form the camera in both shots. If it was moving AWAY from the camera, this would not be the case.” false.
Alternatively, you can use a vertical measurement, which isn't effected by parallax distortion from the movement of the camera between the two photos, resize them so they both the same, superimpose them onto a single frame. And you get something like this:

UFO-Size-Difference.jpg


Which is errrr... nowhere near 10% :rolleyes:


In scientific or technical drawing, a double-headed arrow CAN never and WILL never indicate “a direction of travel”! I am sorry, but that is just the way it is. Hartmann has “fudged” his drawing to make it seem like he is indicating something that is just NOT logical for such a drawing. In fact the drawing itself is a bit of a sham – go and ask someone who is familiar with these types of calculations and familiar with technical drawing. Please…
The object is at one position for the first photo (between the top pair of lines) and then it is in another position for the second photo (between the bottom pair of lines)... If it isn't traveling in that direction (from position A to position B), where is it going?

If you object by saying that’s unlikely because of a rapidly moving UFO, I merely point to the witness statement that the UFO was “almost hovering” and “moving very slowly” at the time the photos were taken.
I don't simply object because I think it's unlikely.
It clearly states in the Condon report:

"Witness II explained that he took the first picture, re-wound his film as fast as possible and then as the object gathered speed and turned toward the northwest, he had to move rapidly to his right to get the second picture."

So, your original “direction” claim (made in your diagram) has been shown to be false and the more general claim that Trent would not have used the “waist level” view finder has also been shown to be falsifiable.

I stand by it 100%!
Of course you do... you have a habit of being WRONG.
 
In the diagram of post 5177:
the distance along the sightline from camera postion 2 to the 10 m ufo designated "And then it was here" is about 10% longer than the sightline from camera position 1 to the 10m ufo near "The object was here". This is consistent with the ufo beeing some 8 or 10 % smaller than on picture 1 and shows the ufo would have been travelling west-south-west. In reality the model did hang still on the fishing line and Trent moved a little farther away between picture one and two.
The claim Trent would try to use a small waiste-level viewfinder to catch a moving object is plain and simple ridiculous, that's really obvious to anyone who has ever tried to make a photo of a moving object.
 
Haven't checked in for a couple dozen pages-any verifiable evidence yet?

Nah! The million dollar challenger has still not been anywhere near the moola.
And at this rate, he never will. ;)
 
South WEST :rolleyes: If you're having trouble with what the points on a compass are called, you could use this handy reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compass
Okay, okay, yeah, yeah…but you know what I mean though…

I claimed it was the general direction of travel... It's exact direction of travel is irrelevant. As we don't have a Sat Nav plot, it's never going to be an accurate indication. Which part of this don't you understand?
But the “exact” direction is provided by the witness statements and supported by the fact that the UFO decreases in size between photo 1 and photo 2.

So if it's heading North West, is that where we can find the evidence of Aliens?
Sure… if it is not any mundane object, then by definition it IS “alien”.

Alternatively, you can use a vertical measurement, which isn't effected by parallax distortion from the movement of the camera between the two photos, resize them so they both the same, superimpose them onto a single frame. And you get something like this:

[qimg]http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/gg117/ThePsychoClown/UFO-Size-Difference.jpg[/qimg]

Which is errrr... nowhere near 10% :rolleyes:
Okay then, you will not have any objection to providing your precise calculations that relate to your specific methodology showing the calculated difference in size between your “overlayed” UFOs. Why do I KNOW that you WILL NOT (cannot) do that?

Oh, and parallax “distortion” is the reason I used the distant hills as a measure of the size difference of the photos themselves. If you use closer objects, then the error margin is actually higher (but even doing this vertical measure you obtain a 6% differential in photo sizes – same as mine). YOUR next step is…?

Oh, and don't think I have not noticed that you have CHEATED (perpetrated a fraud) by drawing your "comparison" lines (the red lines) in your photo overlay OVER the left edge of the upper UFO (obscuring a good portion of it to make it LOOK smaller than it actually is!

...and perhaps you should use the photos that I linked to above...they are MUCH clearer than the ones you seem to have used - allowing much more precise measurements and thus more accurate calculations.

The object is at one position for the first photo (between the top pair of lines) and then it is in another position for the second photo (between the bottom pair of lines)... If it isn't traveling in that direction (from position A to position B), where is it going?
You will be able to provide a rationale for the double headed arrow then? Why do I KNOW you will not do this either?

I don't simply object because I think it's unlikely.
It clearly states in the Condon report:

"Witness II explained that he took the first picture, re-wound his film as fast as possible and then as the object gathered speed and turned toward the northwest, he had to move rapidly to his right to get the second picture."
This is not inconsistent with the statements that it was “almost hovering” and “moving slowly”. As it picked up the pace (from a virtual hover) it would have been natural to Trent to that he needed to “move rapidly” to get another photo – he wanted more pictures of it before it “got away”! That is an entirely human reaction under the circumstances and in no way contradicts the observed motion of the UFO.

Of course you do... you have a habit of being WRONG.
You have not demonstrated that.
 
Stray Cat
You asked the question:
”Or perhaps I'm being presumptuous, does ANYONE else not understand the diagram?

Here is your answer:
In the diagram of post 5177:
the distance along the sightline from camera postion 2 to the 10 m ufo designated "And then it was here" is about 10% longer than the sightline from camera position 1 to the 10m ufo near "The object was here". This is consistent with the ufo beeing some 8 or 10 % smaller than on picture 1 and shows the ufo would have been travelling west-south-west....

Obviously people ARE struggling with what it actually represents…
 
Of course you do... you have a habit of being WRONG.

You have not demonstrated that.


That would be for the other participants in the thread to decide, wouldn't it?

Being as I'm one of those, I'm entitled to point out that your habit of wrongness has been demonstrated dozens, if not hundreds of times. Stray Cat is simply the latest to do so.
 
Stray Cat
You asked the question:
”Or perhaps I'm being presumptuous, does ANYONE else not understand the diagram?

Here is your answer:


Obviously people ARE struggling with what it actually represents…
Hmm. It seems to me that Rramjet is the only one having difficulty understanding the diagram.

Rramjet, will you please take a ruler and measure the distance on the diagram, along the sightline of the first picture, from the photographer to the UFO marked "10m", and then measure the second sightline similarly from the photographer to the UFO at the other end of the double-headed arrow (which so offends your technical drawing sensibilities)?

Can you then tell us approximately what percentage difference you find in the two lengths and, for bonus points, what direction one must travel to get from the first UFO to the second?

Thanks in anticipation.
 
Last try - I promise

I don't want you to take on "too many cases." Just your BEST CASE.



Again,

Do you understand? Let me try to simplify my "example hypotheses" to this one case that you listed.

  • Travis Walton was abducted by extraterrestial beings.
  • Travis Walton suffered from drug-induced psychosis.
  • Travis Walton was lying for some reason.
  • Travis Walton was abducted by frat boys playing a joke.
  • Travis Walton was victim of MKUltra

Chose ONE. Or write your own. But just one.
Rramjet, really. You are embarassing yourself here.
 
Can you then tell us approximately what percentage difference you find in the two lengths and, for bonus points, what direction one must travel to get from the first UFO to the second?

Thanks in anticipation.

I got bored, so I did it myself. I also used Rr's technique to scale the photos based on distant trees on the skyline, and measured the change in diameter of the UFO.

I measure the second sight line as being 10.3% longer, and the second UFO image as being 10.4% smaller.

(BTW, the error on those results is much larger than the difference between them, of course. The first figure is probably within ±0.5%, but the second might easily be a couple of percent out, as it's hard to measure the diameter of the UFOs precisely.)

The direction is approximately west southwest.

That wasn't so hard, was it? Come on Rr, what numbers do you get?
 
Has Rramjet or SnidelyW proved yet that all the unidentified flying objects weren't miraculous manifestations created by a god or gods? Because until they prove that, it is equally as valid an explanation as the possibility that they were aliens.
 
The point is that the UFO moved away from the observers, which means travelling NORTHWEST. THIS is how the “calculations are made”.

At least this is what the witnesses state. However, because the photographer moved from left to right, it would not be unreasonable to state the size difference is due to the movement of the photographer and has absolutely nothing to do with the UFO "moving". I few quick computations on the matter is that if the UFO was a 4.5 - inch model would appear about 1.4 degree across at 15 feet and 1.3 degrees at 17 feet. A two foot difference would create the change in apparent size for a model that matches what Hartmann measured as the angular sizes of the object in the photographs.
 
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Has Rramjet or SnidelyW proved yet that all the unidentified flying objects weren't miraculous manifestations created by a god or gods? Because until they prove that, it is equally as valid an explanation as the possibility that they were aliens.

Every bit as valid. Except for the Trent photos which were, of course, a rather fetching hat, worn by a tall, invisible fairy.
 
Absolutely. I have no formal science training beyond the high school level, and hope I have never given anyone the impression I have.
I freely admit that I have an abductive reasoning streak in me, as opposed to the rigourous inductive reasoning at work by the skeptics here. I am not a true empiricist, as you appear to be, preferring to examine a concept from all angles. Limiting myself to insight as well as a priori justification at times has coloured my perspective vis-a vis the UFO/alien phenomena.

No you haven't and that's why my tone when I reply for you is diferent from the one I use with Rramjet.

Just two comments- being restricted to an "empirical" approach doesn't mean I (as well as other skeptics) never used or use other approaches. Its just a matter of being utilitarian- what is working better?

The second one is related to the "I would like skeptics to explain this" line... Well, first give us something which can be properly investigated in order to seek an explanation. You must also avoid the "unknown=alien" reasoning; the left side of the equation can easilly be due to lack of data. And at last, remember that the fact that two events happened at the same time or within a small time frame is not proof or evidence they are linked somehow.

I fully understand the reliability of a source of belief does not guarantee that the resultant belief is justified. Still, I can reflect on how concept possession guarantees reliability of judgments involving the application of concepts to hypothetical situations, and then know that these sorts of judgments are reliable. I can also claim this thinking is entirely justifiable.

I know we can debate the above on a philosophy thread, but I include it here in the hope that a greater understanding of each others approach can lead to a full appreciation of how each uses 'evidence'.

OK, one of the problems is related to what you define as "concept possession" and their applicatons to hypothetical situations. A practical example- when an UFO buff proposes that UFOs are alien craft from Venusian aor Martian civilizations, based on the evidence that these planets once had liquid water he/she is not doing his/her homework properly. Its OK for a soft sci-fi flick but its a major fail as soon as you look at the science. All one has to do is check when these periods happened for how long, how long it took for evolution to shape us, and the geologic history of these three planets. These informations are available at your fingertips and simply cripple this speculation.

When it comes down to other universes, first of all, their existence is to date nothing but hypothesis and so far it seems that if they exist, travelling between them is a no-go.

Of course in both cases UFOlogists will try to counter with appeals to ignorance, but the bottomline is clear- whoever raises this ideas demonstrate utter ignorance of the scientific method. They are building space operas and not scientific hypothesis. Especialy when you take in to acount the fact that, to date, there are no reliable evidence pieces backing the existence of UFOs as alien craft. Why should I speculate on their origin if I have no evidence they exist? If its for entertainment purposes only, then OK, but one must never try to present it as science, as UFOlogist do. Its not that diferent from Hall's corolary. "Before we do research on something, we should make sure it exists."

In the case of UFOs as decribed in UFOlogy lore, there should be more reliable pieces of evidence than reports eyewitnesses, reports of sighting, abductions and blurry imagery, quite often suspected of being hoaxed. These good data should be present (the spurious one also) if the phenomenon where something other than a cultural issue.
 
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I am flattered that you think that scientists should be “all knowing, all seeing” and that you think my posts demonstrate some scientific mastery of a number of subjects. I can now understand why I seem to attract so much abuse from you and others in this forum. You seem to have placed me on some sort of pedestal as a “scientist” and when I fail to live up to some supposed standard or other of yours, then you are all the more bitterly disappointed and therefore tend to take your frustrations out on me.
If you want to use irony as a weapon, you really need to improve your skills; now if it wasn't an attempt to irony, your observation and conclusion skills are terribly flawed...

For example, I do not see any scientific mastery within your posts (despite your claims of being a scientist). All I see are pseudoscientific discourses and huge flaws on the collection and evaluation of information.

You should also be more carefull when presenting claims. For example, you said I 'think that scientists should be “all knowing, all seeing”'. Now, prove it or retreat it.

Your pedestal is not what you think it is...


You have a particular belief that the subject of UFOs represents a “lore” of some sort. You will of course be able to support that belief with hard evidence that you can show to others (including me). Otherwise you are again simply making generalised, unfounded, belief-based assertions.
Please look in to the definition of lore, folklore and popular culture. To date, you and all other UFOlogists failed to demonstrate UFO evidence is composed by something other than an assemblage of anecdotes and tales. Scientific evidence for aliens from outside the borders of what we call nature (whatever it means) it is not. So we're left with?

That you also believe that UFO related research has been a “failure” means that you consider such things as the Battelle study, the Condon report, the Sturrock Panel, and a host of other research projects, academic studies, PhDs, (by UFO debunkers and UFO proponents and independent scientists alike) etc to have been “failures”. If so then you will of course be able to describe precisely why you think such research efforts (and critically future research) is a failure.
From UFOlogy POV, yes, failure, since none of these studies managed to provide any shred of evidence to bak the presence of aliens from outside the borders of what we call nature (whatever that means).


You seem to get bogged down in the details here (“exact facts”). What is important is the occurrence itself and the way in which it was reported. A UFO coupled with radiation like injuries – in 1886! But the report itself is NOT a “UFO” report. The reporter believes he has an explanation (an electrical/meteorological phenomenon) of the type being discussed in Scientific American. He merely outlines the case for the consideration of what he considers to be more learned minds than his own. It is a matter of fact report that we simply have no reason to doubt the veracity of.
Again- you have nothing but another unconfirmed report. You can not (i) look at the original data (this is quite common in UFOlogy, eh? Like in "The negatives were lost", "The government confiscated the evidence"); (ii) have any reasonable assurance that description of the injuries and the sighting of the lights were exact (you can't even pin down the location); (iii) you can't actually link the alleged sighting of the light with the alleged injuries and at last but not least (iv) you can't actually link it all with any degree of certanity with radiation and/or UFO phenomena. I could go on, but anyone with basic scientific training by now would have realized that even if you could accomplish i to ii you would still be at loss with iii and iv. Not to mention you would also have to look for and exclude other possibilities for the injuries.

…oh I forgot, according to the UFO debunkers, eyewitnesses, etc are always wrong 100% of the time aren’t they? One wonders how anyone can make their way around in this world at all.
Once again you try to divert the readers' attention by twisting skeptics'position. This is not a scientific debate methodology. Note that
your arguments rely on the assumption that the eyewitnesses reports are precise descriptions of the events they claim to have experienced. Can you back this point? Or you deny it?

Again I repeat, a specimen is NOT proof of a species.
Tell this to a biologist.

Perhaps you should do a little background research on this? I think you should also explore the definitions of the terms you use a little more closely (eg; “type” and “proof”). In science precise definitions matter enormously. They make all the difference between a statement being correct and one that is way off the mark.
Oh, now you are asking for precision... So Rramjet, show me precision in the collection and treatment of data. Show me scientific methodology. Show me data researched with care and precision. Something you have not been doing, given the many basic errors you constantly make. Do I need to remind you of them?

I present the pictures. I present the accompanying evidence and research that shows the pictures to be “real”. What more do you want? If you can refute the evidence I present, then please go ahead and we can move on with the debate.
To date you failed to present reliable evidence and research pointing towards a good chance that they are images of real UFOs controlled by aliens from outside the borders of what we call nature (whatever that means).

I want reliable evidence. I want clear pictures not even suspected of being hoaxes or misidentifications. I want images from various sources of the same event. This is the minimal, lowermost level of evidence one would expect to be available if UFO lore can be trusted. Got some?
 
Someone made a bigfoot joke above, but it does fit. Apparently, even with about a billion cameraphones around the world, only bigfoot and UFOs are unable to be clearly photographed. Everything else shows up on google image search in hi-def.

Boggles the mind.


:alien011:
 
Some UFOlogists actually took this seriously! I recall from my UFOnuts day that blurryness was evidence of their origin from another universe. Caused when they were phasing in or out... Or something like that. Same would be valid for translucid UFOs and those which would shown only after film development.

Images intentionally out of focus and double-exposures were ruled out...
 
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