UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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LOL. You call that "testable"? You think that a good test would be to fully investigate every one of the many thousands of sightings, including future ones, to find one that has a a definite non-mundane reason? When exactly does this test end and who performs it?

I think you'd better look up the word "testable"

Oh, and as to point B, Maybe not. Only every single one so far that has a solution.

Seconded / Thirded / Fourthed / Whatever

If Rramjet can't write a one-sentence hypothesis about a single case, I'll give up and just go back to reading this trainwreck in between phone calls. His "reasoning" is simply bizarre. We must solve ALL cases of X one way or another, and if we can't then ... what, exactly?


There are unexplained stories told by people who believe they saw things. Wow, that's been around since mankind. Really insightful.
 
How can you have one hypothesis on something unidentified and hasn't been categorized as singular yet? That maybe impossible. I'm with Astro and sorta see why he wants to just start with one, the best case , as he calls it. But even then what are we gonna do? Hunt it down, hold it still , and knock on it askin' "anybody in there?". When this threads over, may I suggest we get some fluid, meet somewhere and embalm ourselves.
 
I gave examples.

Here are three provable hypotheses:

A sight seen over Piedmont, NC last night was an alien spacecraft.
A body found in the Everglades was of extraterrestrial origin.
An alien ship landed on my house last night.

Really, it's easy. Please give it a try. :)
 
Reply to Astrophotographer’s post found here:
Cash Landrum follow-up:

Since RRamjet brought up some specific points recently about the Cash-Landrum case…

(IMPORTANT NOTE: In the following I have selected what I consider to be the relevant bits from his detailed and extensive post. His post provides a good deal of discussion and evidence – yes evidence(!) – before anyone reads the following post if they have not already, they SHOULD now go and read Astrophotographer’s post!)

Astrophotographer provided an extensive detailed discussion about lack of evidence for helicopters which finally boils down to the following:

…I think the USS New Orleans theory, while remotely possible, is unlikely.
Oh dear, about as likely as… say… a blimp perchance? I’ll tell you what… based on this form of argument, I’ll concede no helicopters if you concede no blimp. Deal?

Randle then discusses the lawsuit:

The problem there, however, is that no indications of governmental responsibility could be proven. The searches of military organizations that would have had access to sufficient numbers of helicopters could find no records to suggest that they had participated in any sort of exercise that would demand the numbers required.
A second problem also developed. Medical records for the three, Cash, Landrum, and Colby, were not presented as evidence. If, according to these records, there had been no signs of preexisting ill health or any medical problems, then a good case could be made that the events of December 29 caused the trouble. If, on the other hand, there was a record of various medical pathologies, then no such conclusion could be drawn.
(P. 213)

This was a big problem. Why weren’t the records presented into evidence? It raises questions. It is probable that Betty Cash suffered from heart issues before the incident (Klass reports a bypass operation in his SUN newsletter of 1999) and there may have been other health issues from which she suffered.
Of course Klass, without access to the medical records, would “report” such a thing!

The consensus seems to be that the blood results did NOT show radiation poisoning. Thus there is a GOOD reason WHY the plaintiffs would not have wanted to enter this into evidence – even if the medical evidence POSITIVELY showed that the witnesses received the injuries at the time they stated they did. The fact that the blood results were negative would have immediately closed the case on military negligence… ANYTHING the military could plausibly have been shown to have operating to cause such injuries as claimed WOULD also have affected the blood. No question. So that is reason enough for the plaintiffs not to enter the medical evidence.

But what about the defence? I find it interesting that the military did NOT subpoena the medical records for themselves (or if they did THEY did not enter them into the record) to show that the injuries were NOT caused at the time stated. THIS is a telling point in the OTHER direction. The military would not have been so negligent as to NOT have looked into the medical records. If they felt that their case was strengthened by those records, then they would MOST definitely have entered them. They did not! Why not…presumably the blood results supported their defence? It can only mean that other parts of the record supported the plaintiffs case!

So what are we left with? Simply that we cannot make a determination on the case based solely on the lack of medical report evidence. There are pros and cons for each side of the argument arising from the non-presentation of the records in a court case… that is we can imagine plausible scenarios why the evidence was not admitted by EITHER side.

As far as the symptoms or radiation exposure, I recalled reading something Brad Sparks wrote about radiation exposure. I found his article here:

http://www.qtm.net/~geibdan/a1999/cash3.htm

He pretty much made the same points I made about radiation exposure. This comment was interesting though:

It is known that many chemical agents MIMIC IONIZING RADIATION EFFECTS even down to the cellular level, and can create such symptoms without regard to dose-onset-time relations and with considerable individual variability in response (which might obviate the need to suppose shielding by the car from exposure). The immediate contact dermatitis (skin burns) and conjunctivitis seem to indicate a chemical agent exposure.

Sparks is no expert on the subject but it is an informed opinion on the matter by a UFOlogist/UFO proponent.
Precisely, he is NO expert! Just because he is a UFO proponent does not make him correct. Please point to the chemicals that CAN do as Sparks suggests. Cuddles had a go… rocket fuel no less! But of course rocket fuel IS just lying around the countryside waiting for anyone to accidently expose themselves to it!

Regarding Dr Peter Rank, the consulting radiologist:
In the December 1982 edition of the MUFON journal, Rank made some comments about an article describing the effects of radiation exposure in the Cash-Landrum incident. He seemed to be non-committal on the subject:

Mr. Stowe has made certain assumptions which may or may not be warranted. The first assumption is that the principals in this case suffered total body radiation. This is by no means clear. I do not believe that a general dosage level can be assigned to the Cash/Landrum case. My reasoning is based upon the observation, to the best of my knowledge, that ALTHOUGH BOTH WOMEN HAD SYMPTOMS OF RADIATION SICKNESS, THERE WERE NO WELL DOCUMENTED CHANGES IN THE BLOOD AND THE DIARRHEA REPORTED WAS NOT BLOODY IN NATURE (My emphasis).My analysis ASSUMED (my emphasis) that ionizing radiation, exact wavelength undetermined, was responsible for most of the symptoms. We also know that the women had exposure to light as well as to infrared waves. As Mr. Stowe points out, some of the erythema of the skin can be attributed to ultraviolet, and some certainly can be attributed to shorter wavelengths with higher energy and of an ionizing nature. The extent to which microwave radiation was involved is not clear, and I was unable to come to a position with regard to it. (P. 9)
(Bolding MY emphasis. Rr)

So this is pretty categorical. There are a number of experts arguing over the injuries and symptoms AS IF THEY WERE REAL! So we if we assume that the injuries WERE real, then HOW did the witnesses come by them?

To summarize all of this:

1) There is no evidence for the helicopter fleet other than the testimony of Cash and Landrum and one vague reference to a mystery witness who apparently was not sure of the date. The other witnesses saw their helicopters on different dates or at different times.
Well…obviously the helicopters COULD possibly have come from the USS New Orleans… :)

2) The medical records appear to have been closely guarded. Those that did see them seem to have reported that the bloodwork results were not what one would expect from radiation exposure.
True, but the FACT of the injuries remains.

3) No evidence has been presented (other than the symptoms) that radiation was involved.
Except that no other cause has been identified and multiple types of radiation might have been involved.

4) No evidence of any damage to the surrounding terrain or vehicle
You do NOT discuss this in your post… it is a mere restatement of unfounded, generalised assertion.

5) The UFO itself seems to have magically appeared and disappeared. Only one person besides Cash/Landrum seems to have seen it even though Cash/Landrum claimed it was visible for over 20 minutes!
UFOs tend to do that in case you had not noticed…

…And they DO NOT claim it was visible for over 20 minutes!

CJC: OK, and ah... how long did this sighting last, how long were you exposed to it?
BC:Well, I'd say about 15 to 16, 17 minutes, it seemed like hours to me, but it couldn't have been that long because when I got home it was ten minutes till ten, which is approximately a twenty minute drive from where this happened.
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/CashLandrum1.html)


If this is an example of a BEST CASE, then what does it mean about all the others?
I have already stated there is NO “best case”. This is just a case that either stands or falls on the evidence.
 
Wow Chuck, sorry for this totally unscientific, undetailed response to the video you linked, but it's a crock of crap.
 
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The consensus seems to be that the blood results did NOT show radiation poisoning. Thus there is a GOOD reason WHY the plaintiffs would not have wanted to enter this into evidence –
Go figure.

But what about the defence? I find it interesting that the military did NOT subpoena the medical records for themselves (or if they did THEY did not enter them into the record) to show that the injuries were NOT caused at the time stated. THIS is a telling point in the OTHER direction. The military would not have been so negligent as to NOT have looked into the medical records. If they felt that their case was strengthened by those records, then they would MOST definitely have entered them. They did not! Why not…presumably the blood results supported their defence? It can only mean that other parts of the record supported the plaintiffs case!
Another case of overreaching here Ramjet.

A much more plausable explanation for them not putting up such a robust defence would be that they knew Cash didn't have a case and therefore no defence would be required.
 
I stated:
Here is a testable hypothesis then:

1. There are no testable hypotheses in the field of UFO research.

Here are some more testable hypotheses for you:

A. All UFO sightings are the result of misperceptions, delusion, lies or hoaxes.

B. There is a plausible mundane solution for every UFO sighting.

(all less that 12 words... :))

How do you propose to test this hypothesis?

1. How do you rule out every possible explanation for the sighting?
2. How do you determine if a witness has grossly misrepresented what he saw?
3. How do you determine if a witness isn't making his sighting up?
4. How do you determine if a witness doesn't have psychological issues that makes them see things that are not really there?
5. How do you determine a case is absolutely a hoax or not?
6. How do you......... (fill in the blank)?

You are wrong. It is a non-testable hypothesis.
It is quite simple really, we find a case that falsifies the hypothesis.

If you do not like the direction of the hypotheses:

A1: UFO sightings exist that are not the result of misperceptions, delusion, lies or hoaxes.

B1: UFO sightings exist for which there is no plausible mundane solution.

All I have to do then is present cases that support the hypothesis.

So the contention that there are NO testable hypotheses in UFO research (for THAT IS the UFO debunker’s hypothesis!) is demonstrably itself an incorrect hypothesis.

There are always those exceptions that will prevent a positive determination of what was actually seen and what the witness reported seeing. You can't get around this issue no matter how hard you try and how scientific you claim to be.
What “exceptions”? What issue?
 
A1: UFO sightings exist that are not the result of misperceptions, delusion, lies or hoaxes.
To date: false. Do you have one that makes this true?

B1: UFO sightings exist for which there is no plausible mundane solution.
To date: false. Do you have one that makes this true?

All I have to do then is present cases that support the hypothesis.

You're just now catching on to that after everyone else has asked for even one case that would do that?
 
Go figure.


Another case of overreaching here Ramjet.

A much more plausable explanation for them not putting up such a robust defence would be that they knew Cash didn't have a case and therefore no defence would be required.

If they did not have a case then it never would have got to court in the first place!

What easier way for the military to defend its position than to present medical records to show that the injuries were either not as claimed or that they occurred at some prior date, etc? So it is NOT "overreaching" to suppose the military did not present the medical records because those records did not exactly help their defense. If they could have they would have. That is not overreaching.
 
If you do not like the direction of the hypotheses:

A1: UFO sightings exist that are not the result of misperceptions, delusion, lies or hoaxes.

B1: UFO sightings exist for which there is no plausible mundane solution.

All I have to do then is present cases that support the hypothesis.

So the contention that there are NO testable hypotheses in UFO research (for THAT IS the UFO debunker’s hypothesis!) is demonstrably itself an incorrect hypothesis.
When you state your hypothesis in the negative, you are shifting the burden of proof inappropriately.

Paul2's first rule of hypotheses: "A hypothesis must be stated in the positive grammatically", otherwise we are left trying to disprove whether it's a teapot, a frying pan, or a chainsaw that is in orbit.
 
If they did not have a case then it never would have got to court in the first place!
In the US, any crackpot lawyer can take any crackpot case to court.
It's not a criminal prosecution that needs the backing of the DA.

What easier way for the military to defend its position than to present medical records to show that the injuries were either not as claimed or that they occurred at some prior date, etc? So it is NOT "overreaching" to suppose the military did not present the medical records because those records did not exactly help their defense. If they could have they would have. That is not overreaching.
The military didn't need to defend it's position, the judge decided there was no case to answer and from what I gather threw the case out without even looking at Cash's 'evidence' in any detail.
 
I hate cases being presented via Youtube. This appears to the 1952 washington nationals case. Try:

http://www.cufon.org/cufon/wash_nat/CAA_Radar_Study.pdf

Interestingly the investigation did NOT rule out “hard” targets:

3. (…) At its worst, it forms a nuisance by cluttering the scope display and by requiring that additional traffic information or heading instructions be issued in order to protect other traffic against the possibility that such a target might be a helicopter.” (pp.14-15)

If, according to the investigation things as substantial as “helicopters” cannot be ruled out then “UFO”s cannot be ruled out either!
 
The military didn't need to defend it's position, the judge decided there was no case to answer and from what I gather threw the case out without even looking at Cash's 'evidence' in any detail.
So then the claim that the medical records were not presented to support the plaintiffs case and therefore this was "suspicious" is a RED HERRING! If the plaintiffs never got the CHANCE to present that evidence then any conclusions drawn from the lack of presentation are entirely spurious!
 
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