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Tuesday Afternoon Massacre

Donal said:
1) does this president strike you as being bothered by things like perception or norms?
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Trump is obsessed with perception. Not yours, mind you. He's quite willing to offend when he thinks he's got something to gain, but I think he's more calculating about that than you give him credit for. In this case, I think the marginal benefit of a pardon over a commutation won't justify the pardon for him. I could be wrong, I'm no 100% or even 90% confident, but I'd still put the odds of a commutation above the odds of a pardon.

2) He will more likely get bored when someone tries to explain to him what "commuted sentence" means say say "$%^& it, just pardon him"
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This level of analysis may be comforting, but it's not actually useful.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Basically this.
Trump wants to be able to blame Barr if a Pardon backfires, politically.
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He credits Barr for stepping up to the plate, but even if it doesn't backfire politically I'm pretty sure Barr is violating ethical standards. We have an adversarial legal system. The top prosecutor should not be advocating for the defendent. He shouldn't be at cross-purposes with his front-line prosecutors. It's a massive conflict of interest, IMO. It's almost like Trump is fingering him on purpose.

Trump has no professional certification to lose. Barr does. I think he cares a lot about what other lawyers think of him. Butting into a case involving his boss's friend, to the benefit of said friend ... I'm not a lawyer, but these guys are supposed to avoid even an appearance of conflict of interests. We've learned that the president has enormous leeway that had simply never been tested before. Especially if he has a Senate majority. But Barr's in a different situation. It could end badly for him.
 
Ziggurat said:
Trump is obsessed with perception. Not yours, mind you. He's quite willing to offend when he thinks he's got something to gain, but I think he's more calculating about that than you give him credit for. In this case, I think the marginal benefit of a pardon over a commutation won't justify the pardon for him. I could be wrong, I'm no 100% or even 90% confident, but I'd still put the odds of a commutation above the odds of a pardon.



This level of analysis may be comforting, but it's not actually useful.
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This is rather in the be vein of Collins's naive claim that the impeachment taught Trumpy a lesson. I think you give the dictator-in-making too much credit. He's far more stimulus/response than analyze/plan. What cognition there is is more of the primitive, instinctive, crafty, gut-level survival reflex.
 
Minoosh said:
It's almost like Trump is fingering him on purpose.
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Which is exactly what is happening. Trump is incriminating Barr so that Barr has no choice but to keep protecting Trump, and thereby protect himself.
 
Lurch said:
This is rather in the be vein of Collins's naive claim that the impeachment taught Trumpy a lesson. I think you give the dictator-in-making too much credit. He's far more stimulus/response than analyze/plan. What cognition there is is more of the primitive, instinctive, crafty, gut-level survival reflex.
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It's easy to think that about him, but if his reflex is "crafty," is it really just a reflex? He has pretty adroitly combined stimulus/response AND cunning, using his tantrums to distract from policy stuff that is really happening. Apparently when a sociopath decides to turn on the charm he can be delightful. Especially used in combination with his rages. It's like his whole Cabinet has Stockholm syndrome, or is like some battered spouse. A lot of people think he is truly losing it, but we'e been here before many times in the past 3-4 years that I think it's a mistake to underestimate him.
 
Can we please not talk about Trump fingering anybody? There are some mental images I really don't need.

Thanks.
 
JoeMorgue said:
AG hell. We'll be lucky to keep him off the Supreme Court.
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Well he could make the court a *lot* more interesting.

ETA: He wanted to be Secretary of State, go around schmoozing oligarchs on the public's dime. Could have been very lucrative for him.
 
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Ziggurat said:
Trump is obsessed with perception. Not yours, mind you.
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He wants to be perceived as a tough guy. Breaking norms is one way he thinks he pulls this off.

He's quite willing to offend when he thinks he's got something to gain,
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More like when he can't see a loss.

but I think he's more calculating about that than you give him credit for.
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His handlers are. But he tends to go off the rails from them.

In this case, I think the marginal benefit of a pardon over a commutation won't justify the pardon for him. I could be wrong, I'm no 100% or even 90% confident, but I'd still put the odds of a commutation above the odds of a pardon.
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You're thinking and using reason. That is where you are going wrong. The president goes off his first reaction.

This level of analysis may be comforting, but it's not actually useful.
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Based on reports from inside the White House, it is accurate.
 
Bush commuted Libby's sentence. Trump pardoned him.

If Stone's sentence is commuted, it won't be because Trump thought of it. He'll announce to staff that he intends to issue a pardon, and then some poindexter will say, "Hey, you can commute." Trump will ask, "What's that?" During the trek from the chopper to Mar-a-Lago he'll talk to reporters and use the word "commute" a half-dozen times, "I commuted his sentence because the Mueller prosecutors were being very unfair. A lot of people don't know what it means to be commuted, but it's one of the powers that I have under Article II."
 
Slightly OT:

I looked up sentencing guidelines....
RS was convicted on 5 counts of making false statements to Congress.

The guideline is:

...makes or uses any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry

shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 5 years or, if the offense involves international or domestic terrorism (as defined in section 2331), imprisoned not more than 8 years, or both....
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7-9 years is not unreasonable.
 
C_Felix said:
Slightly OT:

I looked up sentencing guidelines....
RS was convicted on 5 counts of making false statements to Congress.

The guideline is:
...makes or uses any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 5 years or

7-9 years is not unreasonable.
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I think one of the other things that went into the sentencing recommendation is the fact that Stone 1) Broke a gag order while awaiting trial, and 2) did so by posting a picture of the judge with 'crosshairs' (which could be seen as inciting violence)
 
smartcooky said:
IIRC, the Judge in the Stone case is Amy Berman-Jackson

IIRC, Judge Berman Jackson doesn't take any **** from the DOJ. If she thinks the sentencing recommendation is too light, she will either ignore it or send it back with a "please try again" notice.
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If she is ALLOWED to.
 
Random said:
I don't know. He might be willing to pardon Stone, but someone would sit Trump down with slides and crayon drawings and explain that a Pardon would leave Stone open to subpoenas. Probably just get the sentence commutation like Scooter Libby.
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Which would still open him to being subpoenaed. Once your sentence is served, it is served.
 
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