As I scientist, I like to check things out - at least a little - for myself.
Maxie, listen carefully: You're not a scientist.
NOBODY here thinks you sound anything like a real scientist. You sound like a kid with a very average IQ who didn't do well in any science courses he might have taken.
NIST is not God, NIST is an institution. NIST might not be correct. Right?
So if:
H = NOT CONTROLLED-DEMOLITION
then I would test the null hypothesis:
H(null) = CONTROLLED-DEMOLITION
Got that?
Yeah, Max, the hundreds of independent researchers who have concluded that controlled demolition is not a viable hypothesis did just that. Try Brent Blanchard's paper explaining why no one in the demolition industry takes the claims of the conspiracy liars seriously.
To conduct a scientific investigation of the WTCs - as any real skeptic would - ASSUME CONTROLLED-DEMOLITION.
(Sorry guys, applying page 3 of Introductory Statistics does not make one anti-American.)
It should be noted that right off the bat, ASSUME CONTROLLED-DEMOLITION is strongly validated by even the most rudimentary back-of-the-napkin likelihood analysis.
There were many low probability events on 9/11:
- The failure of the military - even around HQ.
- The collapse of WTC 7
- The many anomalies NIST admits to and describes in NCSTAR 1-5A/9/C
- The many melted cars
- The shock-tube flashes in WTC2
- FEMA high-resolution photos showing many, many examples of catalyzed effects on steel members. (Remember, NIST sampled only a tiny portion of the steel.)
- etc, etc, etc.
The joint probability of low probability events - especially when there are multiple - vanishes to zero.
I am utterly, totally, completely at a loss for how any of you even get past the joint probability issue. (Really, I have no words.) My only explanation is that you simply don't understand probability and likelihood analysis.
It is good to hear that your school offers a class in basic probability theory. Your posts suggest that math is difficult for you, so I fear that you will absorb little of the subject matter. But elementary probability theory is an extraordinarily useful tool for showing the absurdity of the fantasists' belief in a gigantic conspiracy. Here is part of my response to Rev91. His silence indicates that he understands that his imaginary conspiracy cannot possibly exist:
You don't understand what a straw man is. The conspiracy concocted by the tinfoil-hatters is necessarily vast. You and your fellow fantasists pretend that a cabal was able to cow into silence
thousands of people across a broad spectrum of professions and industries. We've been down this road many times, but as you are new to the forum, I'll run through the drill again.
You claim that the two hundred researchers working for NIST, along with the eight hundred unaffiliated scientists and engineers consulted by the agency, are complicit in this staggering crime. Whether they are--absurdly--willing accomplices (yeah, we'll buy that a Democrat working for NIST has a perfectly understandable motive to acquiesce in mass murder for no other purpose than to line the pockets of Dick Cheney's cronies) or--slightly less absurdly--normal people intimidated from speaking out by an invisible Gestapo, we have a
thousand people who KNOW that the Bush administration perpetrated a heinous crime. Add to that number the people who work for FEMA; for the FAA; the air traffic controllers; the forensic examiners; the police and fire departments of New York City and Washington, D.C.; the people who work for the Port Authority; all the top brass in NORAD (some of whom are Democrats, let us remember); the Boeing Corporation; American Airlines; United Airlines; the newspaper editors who printed passenger manifests showing the seating positions of the hijackers; seismologists at the Lamont-Doherty labs whose data showed no secondary explosions--and on and on.
The problem is that conspiracy liars are more than simply dishonest; they are incredibly stupid. They tell themselves that their imaginary conspiracy is small, but they refuse to recognize the impossibility of what they claim. There would be
THOUSANDS of people who know that an unprecedented crime had been committed. That
NOT A SINGLE ONE of them would blow the whistle is matter of simple probability.
Suppose that instead of thousands of people knowing the secret, there are only one hundred. Suppose further that these hundred people are extraordinarily good at keeping their mouths shut. Assign them an average probability of .9 (a typical human's might be .5) of never spilling the beans. This conspiracy--much, much smaller than yours--has a 99.97% probability of letting the cat out of the bag (use a calculator to raise .9 to the hundredth power).
The gigantic network of perps, accomplices, and coerced innocents posited by conspiracy liars would let the secret slip far more often, 99.99999...% of the time. The math is childishly easy. You can let everyone involved clam up with a probability of .99--they're all James Bonds and G. Gordon Liddys--and your conspiracy will still unravel with near-certainty.
Who is in the invisible army that knocks everyone into line? How is it funded?
Which brings up an important point.
In modeling dynamic systems far from equilibrium, one does not use DEQs.
One uses coordinate transformations (shifts in perspective - such as MAX-MIHOP), and likelihood analysis - ie., what picture best fits all of the observations, in particular the anomalies and low frequency events.
I have yet to meet one person in my whole 9/11 experience who understands this. If anyone does, please identify yourself.
Gibberish. You think very badly. Any good book on logic or critical thinking would be helpful.
Okay, so basic statistics says: ASSUME CONTROLLED-DEMOLITION
No, a statistics book talks about statistics.
Well, if you assume controlled-demolition, you assume MIHOP.
(LIHOP is preposterous - if only because it is orders of magnitude more complicated than MIHOP.)
Your assumption is, of course, ridiculous: exactly the reverse is true.
From here it is obvious that the controlled-demolitions were masked, covered up - cloaked.
It is obvious that the collapses of the Twin Towers were NOT controlled demolitions--obvious, at any rate, to people who work in the demolition industry.
They weren't cloaked. There was nothing to cloak. No explosives were used in the WTC complex. Seismic data compiled by the Lamont-Doherty labs show no secondary explosions. There is
zero evidence supporting your fabrications.
How could one possibly cloak controlled-demolitions of three gigantic structures, in plain view, with the whole world watching?
Well, magicians or magic illusionists do that all the time.
Military-deception is just magic illusion - weaponized.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff puts out Joint Publication 3-13.4: Military Deception (MILDEC)
MILDEC is magic.
More gibberish. You are an ignorant charlatan babbling incoherently.
To see the controlled-demolitions, one needs to filter out the magic.
I use Paul's Magic Filter, which is simply had by reading JP 3-13.4 (and military publications on MILDEC, on the military using the media as a force multiplier, and on weaponized propaganda).
By knowing how the military conducts MILDEC, I can adjust or filter for MILDEC. Think of it as finding a magician's how-to book, so that you see all the tricks.
Anyway, so now one assumes:
- Controlled-demolition
- MIHOP
- MILDEC
- Cloaking
HOW did they cloak the controlled-demolitions?
There is no "they." Your imaginary conspiracy cannot possibly exist.
Well, to answer that question, I observed, and observed, and observed.
No, you observed nothing. You invented a bunch of childish falsehoods.
I worked very hard to gain familiarity with the available evidence, where that evidence fits on the time-line, the structure of the towers, the NIST reports, the works of Jones and Ryan, and so on.
During this process it is only natural to have hypotheses well up, grow, die, morph, and so on.
But as one's familiarity crosses a critical threshold, quickly most hypotheses simply do not match the evidence. They die.
What is left standing?
You understood nothing in the NIST Report. You have wasted everyone's time with your silly lies.
I am saying aluminum oxide is the MAX-MIHOP explanation.
Why should anyone care what a dishonest ignoramus makes up?
I believe that "aluminum oxide" fits the photo (with the billowing whatever coming right from the connections), the FEMA debris photos (where you see strong evidence of heating on these joints), and the contextual logic of my model.
Obviously, I can not prove that is aluminum oxide.
I only speak to fit - fit of all the evidence.
You may see it differently. That is why you would have a different hypothesis.
Yours would be subjected to the same criterion of fit as mine.
Why not read Dr. Greening's paper on aluminum? Oh, I forgot, you don't actually read anything.
I hope I have answered your questions.
Thanks again for your interest. I appreciate it.
Yes, you have explained yourself very well. I regret wasting so much time on you. Verdict: another ignorant, dishonest egomaniac peddling thoroughly debunked rubbish.
Max
P.S. I'd love to know how my ideas are percolating in that brain of yours. Is anything...intriguing?
You don't have any ideas. You are a dimwit.