Trump's tax returns

[BobTheCoward]

Someone has Bob. Please try and keep up.

Unless something happened this morning, the Times did not. They said explicitly they did not make their records public.

 

[timhau]

538 factors in the rating of the pollster to formulate the margin.

It does, but while Rasmussen was always kind to Trump, lately their numbers have been really out there compared to others. If (and that's not a small if) they've changed their methodology, 538 bias correction will follow with a lag.

 

[Aridas]

So where might Trump have broken various laws. Lets, see, we have:

- Bank Fraud (inflating the value of assets)

- Violating emoluments clause of the constitution (use of Trump properties by foreign governments... Trump claimed he was 'giving profits to the government' but that doesn't seem to be the case.)

- Tax laws regarding gift giving (hiring children as 'consultants')

What other laws might he have broken?

(Should be noted that those are only the laws that the NYT might have uncovered.... obviously there may be many more broken laws that you would need to uncover in other ways.)

Mortgage fraud? Basically, falsely increasing assets to secure loans. You may be covering that under bank fraud, though.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Not really seeing a lot of discourse on this, but there's like 0% chance that this kind of tax avoidance isn't extremely common among the wealthy, right?

Seems like if we actually had a progressive/liberal party in this country, they could make a broader point about how the wealthy classes are bilking the system while the working people live surrounded by a crumbling infrastructure.

Wide-scale tax evasion by the wealthy seems like an issue that could really drum up popular support that could lead to a political mandate, but I guess I'm just dreaming of a different Democratic Party that actually believed in such things.

 

[varwoche]

It does, but while Rasmussen was always kind to Trump, lately their numbers have been really out there compared to others. If (and that's not a small if) they've changed their methodology, 538 bias correction will follow with a lag.

He bounces around abruptly on occasion. Three days ago Trump popularity +4. Today -7. Popularity doesn't factor into 538 margin algorithm though.

 

[catsmate]

What I'm puzzled about is why this issue will have no major negative impact on Trump's campaign, and it may well be a positive ("look at everyone piling on our Donnie"). If this happened to any other leader of a democratic country, he or she would be out the door before the day ended.

Because Trump supports fall into five categories.
Dumb: don't understand and will forget in a couple of days and parrot whatever Dump spews.
Desperate: don't care, they believe he'll fix things for them,
Deplorable: don't care, he'll bash immigrants/minorities/women/gays/brown people
Religious: don't care, they want him to stack the US Supreme Court for them and help Israel.
Greedy: don't care, they're doing much the same.

 

[catsmate]

He's paid more to pornstars in the past 10 years than he's paid in taxes.
Ponder that for a min.

Also $70,000 on hairdressing?

About fifty dollars per hair.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Trump Tweets

The Fake News Media, just like Election time 2016, is bringing up my Taxes & all sorts of other nonsense with illegally obtained information & only bad intent. I paid many millions of dollars in taxes but was entitled, like everyone else, to depreciation & tax credits.....

.....Also, if you look at the extraordinary assets owned by me, which the Fake News hasn’t, I am extremely under leveraged - I have very little debt compared to the value of assets. Much of this information is already on file, but I have long said that I may release....

.....Financial Statements, from the time I announced I was going to run for President, showing all properties, assets and debts. It is a very IMPRESSIVE Statement, and also shows that I am the only President on record to give up my yearly $400,000 plus Presidential Salary!

Prove it, 20,000+ liar.

 

[Aridas]

Not really seeing a lot of discourse on this, but there's like 0% chance that this kind of tax avoidance isn't extremely common among the wealthy, right?

Seems like if we actually had a progressive/liberal party in this country, they could make a broader point about how the wealthy classes are bilking the system while the working people live surrounded by a crumbling infrastructure.

Wide-scale tax evasion by the wealthy seems like an issue that could really drum up popular support that could lead to a political mandate, but I guess I'm just dreaming of a different Democratic Party that actually believed in such things.

As in...

CBO found that the estimated amount of taxes owed but ultimately unpaid was $381 billion on average annually from 2011 to 2013 according to the latest data from the IRS. The tax gap is almost certainly substantially higher given that the total revenue collected has gone up by more than a third since that time. A recent academic study found that roughly 70% of the gap is explained by underpayment of the top 1%.

“The richest 1% is responsible for 70% of all unpaid taxes," said Sanders. “With the money that these tax cheats owe, this year alone, we could fund tuition-free college for all, eliminate child hunger, ensure clean drinking water for every American household, build half a million affordable housing units, provide masks to all, produce the protective gear and medical supplies our health workers need to combat this pandemic, and fully fund the U.S. Postal Service. That is an absolute outrage, and this report should make us take a long, hard look at what our national priorities are all about."

Despite the enormous amount of taxes going unpaid by the wealthy and large corporations, Congress has cut overall resources to the IRS by 20% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2010, which has led to the elimination of 22% of its staff during that time period. Even more strikingly, funding and staff dedicated to enforcement have declined by about 30% since 2010.

While Republicans attempt to portray these cuts as a populist move against an unpopular agency, the real impact has been to open up the floodgates for the wealthy and corporations to avoid or even evade the taxes that they owe. The IRS examination rate for the largest corporations, those with $20 billion or more in assets, dropped by about half from 2010 to 2018. The wealthiest taxpayers, with more than $1 million in income, saw their audit rate cut by 63% during the same time period.

"For every dollar we invest in getting the IRS the staffing and resources it needs, we get three dollars back in unpaid taxes,” said Sanders. “Make no mistake: the primary beneficiaries of IRS funding cuts are wealthy tax cheats and large corporations."

Stuff like that? As you say, though, Sanders isn't exactly the face of the Democratic Party.

 

[The Don]

Not really seeing a lot of discourse on this, but there's like 0% chance that this kind of tax avoidance isn't extremely common among the wealthy, right?

Yes, I think it's likely that it is IF this is tax avoidance and isn't a true reflection of the success of the Trump businesses.

Seems like if we actually had a progressive/liberal party in this country, they could make a broader point about how the wealthy classes are bilking the system while the working people live surrounded by a crumbling infrastructure.

Wide-scale tax evasion by the wealthy seems like an issue that could really drum up popular support that could lead to a political mandate, but I guess I'm just dreaming of a different Democratic Party that actually believed in such things.

It could, but it seems that too many Americans don't consider themselves poor but instead think of themselves as temporarily inconvenienced millionaires and so they want those loopholes in place for when they get their true deserts.

 

[JoeMorgue]

It also should be noted that "All rich people do it..." will probably be the most effective distraction-argument because we'll have plenty of people on the Left who will jump at the chance to talk about it as well.

Trumpers will use "Oh but all rich people do it as an excuse" and many members of the Left will be all too happy to jump right into "Okay but let's talk about this broader issue so we're not really talking about Trump anymore" both of which will benefit Trump.

Not really seeing a lot of discourse on this, but there's like 0% chance that this kind of tax avoidance isn't extremely common among the wealthy, right?

Seems like if we actually had a progressive/liberal party in this country, they could make a broader point about how the wealthy classes are bilking the system while the working people live surrounded by a crumbling infrastructure.

Wide-scale tax evasion by the wealthy seems like an issue that could really drum up popular support that could lead to a political mandate, but I guess I'm just dreaming of a different Democratic Party that actually believed in such things.

*Ian Malcolm "There it is" or Dumbledore "There is Is" GIF*

 

[Trebuchet]

Regarding that "consultant" payment to Ivanka: What did she do with the money? Is it reported on her taxes? My guess is she passed it on to some other "consultant". It's money laundering.

 

[Darat]

I'm wondering if he'll shoot himself in the foot. He isn't going to want to say that his businesses are losing money, but if he claims they aren't losing money, that they are perfect businesses, it means the IRS and I presume state level tax bodies have strong grounds to investigate his businesses.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm wondering if he'll shoot himself in the foot. He isn't going to want to say that his businesses are losing money, but if he claims they aren't losing money, that they are perfect businesses, it means the IRS and I presume state level tax bodies have strong grounds to investigate his businesses.

1. I doubt Trump thinks, much less that far ahead.
2. I doubt it will matter. Trump is not scared of getting caught in some paradoxical "gotcha" moment. He'll tell his supporters one thing, then turn and in the same breathe tell the IRS another, and he will not lose a second of sleep over it. Telling two things at once has worked for him so far, no reason to think it will stop.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Regarding that "consultant" payment to Ivanka: What did she do with the money? Is it reported on her taxes? My guess is she passed it on to some other "consultant". It's money laundering.

My guess is that she threw bad money after worse money to make it look like her own business was profitable.

It's the Trump Way.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

*Ian Malcolm "There it is" or Dumbledore "There is Is" GIF*

I mean, if "all rich people do it" is largely a true statement, is it a distraction or dodge?

Trump seems a bit more transparent in his scamming, but do you think most other wealthy people aren't engaged in similar tax avoidance that frequently crosses over into outright fraud?

I'm not really worried about what the MAGA people say in defense. Nothing will shake their faith in their man.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I mean, if "all rich people do it" is largely a true statement, is it a distraction or dodge?

Yes. Both. Either/or. Take your pick.

The pathological need to use any example of a problem as an excuse to discuss "EVERY PROBLEM EVER" so that you're never fighting a single battle but always looking at the map of the entire war trying to figure out why you're losing fascinates and scares me.

Yes both Jeff Bezos and Donald Trump cheat on their taxes. One is a bigger problem right now. This is not a complicated problem.

You screaming "BUT ALL CHEATING RICH PEOPLE ARE JUST AS BAD" as a distraction and Trumpers screaming it as an excuse ARE THE EXACT SAME THING.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Yes. Both. Either/or. Take your pick.

The pathological need to use any example of a problem as an excuse to discuss "EVERY PROBLEM EVER" so that you're never fighting a single battle but always looking at the map of the entire war trying to figure out why you're losing fascinates and scares me.

Yes both Jeff Bezos and Donald Trump cheat on their taxes. One is a bigger problem right now. This is not a complicated problem.

You screaming "BUT ALL CHEATING RICH PEOPLE ARE JUST AS BAD" as a distraction and Trumpers screaming it as an excuse ARE THE EXACT SAME THING.

Beefing up the IRS and going after rich tax cheats isn't some moonshot commie hypothetical. If there's actually a goal besides screeching "Orange man bad", a systematic approach to wealthy tax evasion is very much in reach.

Hell, pass it through the house and have McConnell block it, or have Trump veto it. It's a political lay up. Do it right now before the election and watch the Republicans lockstep to defend the elites that don't pay their taxes.

 

[phiwum]

for the record, it's closer to 100 times bigger

$750 was for one year of taxes and $70k was for several years of coiffing.

 

[Trebuchet]

Wait. $750?

That means Trump pays more for sex than he pays in taxes.

And then he deducts it as a business expense.