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Trump's Taiwan Call

Fudbucker

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Good for Trump. As a liberal, I have no problem making it clear that we value Taiwan, which has a female president, over a brutal and repressive country like China.
 
Were it a sign of astuteness, I'd agree. China is a bad-faith player whose moves are too slow/minimalist to counter, but which amount over time to territorial and other aggression. The response to something similar I posted elsewhere, on a normally Westerner-only site, got me a surprise tirade from a new sign-in from the East to the effect "China gave up huge swathes of its Tibetan lands to India...." China is bad news long term.

But it was not astute. It was spun as such. Loose cannon.
 
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I must admit that this is exactly the sort of thing I would expect from President Trump, but I don't know whether I like it or not.

I agree with the sentiment in the OP. We ought to stand up for Taiwan, and we ought to support recognition of its independence. And yet, doing so could cause issues, to say the least. It's playing with fire, and I don't trust Donald Trump with matches. I think it is more likely an impulsive move than part of a thought out plan.

However, I certainly can't condemn it.
 
Agreed. I like the idea of open dialogue and the conversation seems to have been innocuous. The troubling aspect is that he did this because he's Trump and in his world he gets to do whatever he likes. But he doesn't just speak for Trump anymore. He is about to be the de facto 'leader of the free world', to the extent that any one person can be. He either doesn't understand what that means or he doesn't care, and either way that's bad.
 
Taiwan is infinitely more worthy of support than China.

Having a President-Elect with no understanding of, or even interest in, diplomacy or the possible ramifications of his actions is still a bad thing.
 
Trump crashing around "like a bull in a china shop" takes on new meaning.

CNN was in its usual form over this call - the correspondent could barely contain her indignation and said something like, "To say China will be freaking out is an understatement." But she forgets, IMO, that most Americans won't know why China would freak out, and furthermore won't care if China freaks out. "One China" policy doesn't mean that much to them, and why should it? They don't live inside diplomatic bubbles. Furthermore they may resent the supposition that they are somehow missing the obvious.

Maybe it will emerge that need for diplomacy is a scam (not my opinion though). I think it's fine to report on this call and assess potential consequences in an evenhanded way, but "OMG Trump called Taiwan!!!" is a reach. Although I think it will be something seemingly minor like this that will land Trump in real trouble. Unintended consequences of a small action.
 
There was a very strong response from a Chinese representative on the BBC Radio 4 news this morning, essentially saying that would put the blame for the call on Taiwan but warning Trump that continued contact could lead to severe consequences .
 
zooterkin said:
There was a very strong response from a Chinese representative on the BBC Radio 4 news this morning, essentially saying that would put the blame for the call on Taiwan but warning Trump that continued contact could lead to severe consequences .
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What severe consequences? What could they do that would hurt the USA more than China?
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Were it a sign of astuteness, I'd agree. China is a bad-faith player whose moves are too slow/minimalist to counter, but which amount over time to territorial and other aggression. The response to something similar I posted elsewhere, on a normally Westerner-only site, got me a surprise tirade from a new sign-in from the East to the effect "China gave up huge swathes of its Tibetan lands to India...." China is bad news long term.

But it was not astute. It was spun as such. Loose cannon.
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Right the issue here is that trump seems to have made this comment without any consideration of the consequences. Look at his tweet after the story broke, he simply had no clue as to why this was a big deal. This comes I remind you all just days after the 'Farage for ambassador' debacle. Trump is still just saying whatever pops into his head, and that's a risky thing for a President-Elect to do.
 
Meadmaker said:
I must admit that this is exactly the sort of thing I would expect from President Trump, but I don't know whether I like it or not.

I agree with the sentiment in the OP. We ought to stand up for Taiwan, and we ought to support recognition of its independence. And yet, doing so could cause issues, to say the least. It's playing with fire, and I don't trust Donald Trump with matches. I think it is more likely an impulsive move than part of a thought out plan.

However, I certainly can't condemn it.
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You're likely right that it's not part of a thought-out plan. But I don't think I really care. Direct talks between us and Taiwan are something we should be able to do. It's something we should do. We shouldn't have to think 10 moves ahead in order to do something we're so manifestly within our rights to do. Maybe a little bit of unpredictability from our side will actually be helpful. Keep China from trying to maneuver us out of what we are entitle to do.
 
Ziggurat said:
You're likely right that it's not part of a thought-out plan. But I don't think I really care. Direct talks between us and Taiwan are something we should be able to do. It's something we should do. We shouldn't have to think 10 moves ahead in order to do something we're so manifestly within our rights to do. Maybe a little bit of unpredictability from our side will actually be helpful. Keep China from trying to maneuver us out of what we are entitle to do.
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We're within our rights to do a lot of things, like slap huge tariffs on imports. That doesn't mean we should act cavalierly. I don't think Trump realized he was about to change decades of policy with one phone call, but that's exactly what happened. I support the change in policy, but what's going to happen the next time Trump does this?
 
Giz said:
What severe consequences? What could they do that would hurt the USA more than China?
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Hubris much?

There are the military hazards.

And there's the problem that China now has a larger economy than we have.
China's economy produced $19.5 trillion in 2015 (based on purchasing power parity). It's the world's largest economy. The European Union is second, at $19.1 trillion. The United States fell to third place, producing $17.9 trillion.

China has 1.37 billion people, more than any other country in the world. China is still a relatively poor country in terms of its standard of living. Its economy only produces $14,300 per person, compared to U.S. GDP per capita of $56,300.

The low standard of living allows companies in China to pay their workers less than in the United States. That makes products cheaper, which lures overseas manufacturers to outsource jobs to China. (Source: CIA World Factbook, China Economy.)
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Despite the fact we buy a lot of their products, we are not their only customer.
China has been the world's largest exporter since 2013. It exported $2.7 trillion of its production in 2015.

The EU exported $2.25 trillion, and the United States, just $1.6 trillion.
China shipped 16.9% of its exports to the United States in 2014.
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China is doing more and more importing of raw materials from Latin America and Africa.
China imports raw commodities from Latin America and Africa, such as oil and other fuels, metal ores, plastics and organic chemicals. It's the world's largest importer of aluminum and copper.
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They hold a lot of US debt:
China is the one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bills, bonds, and notes. As of August 2016, China owned $1.185 trillion in Treasuries. That's about 30% of the public debt held by foreign countries. For details, see What Is the U.S. Debt to China? (Source: U.S. Treasury, Major Foreign Holders)
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Given Trump doesn't think he has to pay creditors, he may just imagine we don't need to honor our debts to China without realizing the consequences.
China's role as America's largest banker gives it leverage. For example, China threatens to sell part of its holdings whenever the United States pressures it to raise the yuan's value. Since 2005, China raised the yuan's value by 33% against the dollar. Between 2014 and 2015, the dollar's strength increased by 25%. China allowed the value of the yuan to decline so its exports could remain competitive with Asian countries that hadn't tied their currency to the dollar. For more, see Dollar to Yuan Conversion.
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Trump is going to continue to make the left look foolish as he takes these issues apart with professional people behind him. The reason it looks so scary to the left is eight years of an absolute wimp who had donors and children masquerading as adults behind him.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Hubris much?

There are the military hazards.

And there's the problem that China now has a larger economy than we have.

Despite the fact we buy a lot of their products, we are not their only customer.

China is doing more and more importing of raw materials from Latin America and Africa.

They hold a lot of US debt:Given Trump doesn't think he has to pay creditors, he may just imagine we don't need to honor our debts to China without realizing the consequences.
Click to expand...

The Chinese economy is neither as big as the USA nor is it gaining. It is, in fact, in some serious trouble.

Them holding our debt is a weakness - for them - in any serious standoff.

Military wise, China has managed the neat trick of frightening all of its neighbors... The Vietnamese, Japanese, Koreans and Philippines would all be likely to side with the USA, leaving China effectively blockaded until it came to its senses.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Hubris much?

There are the military hazards.

And there's the problem that China now has a larger economy than we have.

Despite the fact we buy a lot of their products, we are not their only customer.

China is doing more and more importing of raw materials from Latin America and Africa.

They hold a lot of US debt:Given Trump doesn't think he has to pay creditors, he may just imagine we don't need to honor our debts to China without realizing the consequences.
Click to expand...

The military hazards are negligible, but America certain;y doesn't have a lock on nationalism. China won't be bullied by us, and I can see this escalating into a trade war that would hurt both of us, although I think China has more to lose than we do.
 
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