So before yesterday there's no deal (mineral rights for security guarantees) and Zelenskyy needs the sec. guar., so he goes to the U.S., against standard procedure (the deal should already be in place before travel) because he has no choice, he has to try a hail mary. But the bullying of Trump and Vance kill it.
But why do the media interview in the oval office, from Trump's perspective? Surely he must have planned for Vance to go on the attack, or at least allowed once it started. Did they hope to bully Z. into submission in public? So Z. failed at his hail mary, and Trump failed to bully Z into submission, to the detriment of all - no mineral rights deal, and no security guarantees.
/reading tea leaves
Both sides will have been well prepared. Zelensksyy has been forced to go around the world with a begging bowl. Trump knows this. His claim to be the peacemaker, rather like a trades union negotiator bringing striking workers versus obstinate employers together for bargaining (for example ACAS), means trying to bring about a win-win outcome for both parties. This entails finding out what is the bottom line for each party and what would be the 'deal breaker', as it were. The principles of negotiation haven't changed since Sun Tzu's
Art of War. Whilst being a tough negotiator, driving a hard bargain, is what a good negotiator does, it does mean out-staring your opponent to see who blinks first. What Trump wants is to get his small hands on Ukraine's minerals wealth. Using this as a bargaining chip, Trump wants Zelensky to bend but fails to understand that for Zelenskyy and Europe, security guarantees are needed. Zelenskyy has already invited investment in future mining, so that is not new.
Sun Tzu's rules include
owning the agenda. This means, if you are the host then the other party is at a disadvantage. They come to you. They are in your territory. Home advantage. So, bringing Zelenskyy to the White House - which Zelenskyy has to agree to because he has to try every avenue to fund Ukraine's defence - is a massive advantage in striking a hard bargain. The glamour of the White House plus international live TV broadcast, meant Trump held the balance of power.
Lesson 8
“Generally, he who occupies the field of battle first and awaits his enemy is at ease; he who comes later to the scene and rushes into the fight is weary.”
This is best explained with my 5th Golden Rule: Control the Agenda.
But three years of war has made Zelenskyy a much tougher negotiator than even the intimidatory location of the bargaining. He knows what he has come for: he needs the USA on Ukraine's side and he also knows Trump is desperate to get his avaricious hands on Ukraine's minerals. So his number one card is holding out in signing the 'deal'. Zelenskyy is as hard as nails.
On realising that Zelenskyy was not browbeaten into signing the deal notwithstanding over a hundred press reporters from all over the world witnessing the spectacle, VP JD Vance tried one last tactic to beat Zelenskyy into submission, and that was to bully and humiliate him by shouting insults. Remember, we are not dealing with polite society here, we are dealing with gangster-mentality men who, just a couple of weeks before, tried to swing the German elections to vote for a fascist party, with Steve Bannon doing a Musk-style 'seig heil' salute. These are people who just recently kicked good citizens out of their jobs because of their personal characteristics. Trump, not to be out-bullying by bully boy Vance, pitched his voice even louder and wagged his finger in Zelenskyy's face. That Zelenskyy showed considerable restraint in not decking Trump, is testimony to his character.
I doubt the two-man assault by Trump and Vance was planned or premeditated, I think it is more a case of what they have been saying to each other in private. 'Who does he think he is, the ungrateful upstart?!'
