As it is, even if he ultimately fails, he has already convinced a significant number of people that Biden stole the election and this will undermine his legitimacy and ability to govern. I find the scenarios of an actual miltary coup less likely to succeed, and I also think that he may not try because he is fundamentally a coward, and even in his deranged mind has to realize that failing at a military coup will end with him ether dead or in a prison cell, likely for the rest of his life. OTOH, I can't completely discount the idea that he really is crazy enough to go that far. His firings of the Defense Department officials certainly suggests that he's planning a coup, or planning on deploying the military against protesters.
The way I think that this will play out is that he will push the lawsuits, and possibly efforts to hijack electors through Republican legislators as far as possible. There is also the possibility of preventing electors from being seated and throwing the election into the House of Representatives, which, because they will vote by state delegation would likely put Trump in.
What I think will happen is that he will try all of the quasi-legal avenues, refuse to cooperate in the transition, and leave the White House on Jan. 20, still claiming the election was stolen from him, and starting his run for 2024.
