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Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%
  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%
  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%
  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%

  • Total voters
    249
I wasn't taking a huge amount of notice, but I did think the Bernie Bros weren't all that far from Brownshirts, and their actions immediately after his defeat looked a bit that way as well.

I'm open to other explanations.
I think many Bernie supporters behaved badly, and also that many of them were mistaken in what they felt he represented. He does have some unorthodox and very progressive beliefs, but their perception of him as a political outsider is naive. He is a party outsider no doubt, but he is a career politician, and a pretty good one too. I would go further and suggest that anyone who considers Bernie and Trump as valid alternatives has a very poor grasp of what Bernie represents politically, and that though he may have been at fault for failing to rein them in better, I would not call him a demagogue on the basis of their mush-brained struggle with reality.
 
I wasn't taking a huge amount of notice, but I did think the Bernie Bros weren't all that far from Brownshirts, and their actions immediately after his defeat looked a bit that way as well.

I'm open to other explanations.

I think the Bros were a small subset of Bernie supporters. The vocal minority.

Personal anecdote: I knew many people who supported Bernie and have quite calmly turned to support Hillary after being disappointed that the rest of the Dems couldn't see this as a real opportunity for change. I don't know any Bros.
 
I think the Bros were a small subset of Bernie supporters. The vocal minority.

Personal anecdote: I knew many people who supported Bernie and have quite calmly turned to support Hillary after being disappointed that the rest of the Dems couldn't see this as a real opportunity for change. I don't know any Bros.
Same here. In Vermont, of course, Bernie is pretty popular, and you see a lot of Bernie stickers on cars still, but I don't know any Bernie supporters who are not switching to Hillary, with the presumption that they, and Bernie, will continue to agitate for reform.
 
Meanwhile Part Skeptic seems to get some support for his position from the Dallas Morning News


http://i.stuff.co.nz/world/americas...mp-saved-campaign-in-impressive-second-debate

I am not sure what would count as an unimpressive performance

I read through the editorial. Probably the majority of Trump voters like the characterization of his comments on the tape as locker room talk. I don't quite get what is going on with that. It seems like he is bragging about sexual assault and that his wealth and celebrity allow him to get away with it to me. I've never heard locker room talk remotely like that, and apparently neither have a lot of professional athletes. But calling it locker room talk seems like a better strategy than Corey Lewandowski's where he proposes that Clinton acting as a lawyer defending a man of rape are equivalently bad. Interestingly to me, though, is that even the most stupid of defenses seems to benefit Trump among his most ardent fans. And of course there is the part where he brags about having sex with married women and wanting sex with married women while his wife is pregnant at home. But of course that could all be braggadocio except that perhaps more than any man on the planet Trump's cheating on his wives is publicly known so he is bragging about stuff that he has routinely done.

As to Trump defending policies: I guess that is in the eye of the beholder: Telling people that you're going to deport 11 million people and that is going to work out great seems like pretty much of a transparent lie to me. Telling people that Mexican immigrants commit rape and murder at levels much greater than the population at large is just a pure lie. Mexican immigrants in the US commit less rape and murder than the population at large on a per capita basis.

Does lying about the economic condition of the US count as support for the need for his economic policies?

Does lying about seeing thousands of people celebrating the destruction of 9/11 count as defending his anti-immigrant policy ideas?

Does lying about being opposed to the Iraq war from the start count as supporting his foreign policy expertise?

Does lying about what he could or would do for coal miners count as defending his energy policies? Does failing to mention the huge effect that fracking has had on the decline of coal as a fuel count as supporting his energy policies?

Does lying about the level of violence in the US count and using that as a way to bolster the need for his new and improved mostly unexplained law and order policies.

Does misrepresenting the effect of stop and frisk policies on crime (crime fell all over the place whether stop and frisk policies were in place) count as defending his bona fides as a badass anti-crime guy that is going to make us all safer with his authoritarian ways?

Does lying about the effect of his tax reduction strategies on the national deficit serve as support for his fiscal expertise?

Does lying about the advantages of the trade wars he wants to start count as support for his trade policies?

Where is this skillful informed defense of his proposed policies in anything that Trump has ever said? Obviously the author of that editorial noticed something along those lines that I have never seen Trump do. Trump makes veiled racist comments, grand generalizations about simplistic ideas on policy, childish attacks on almost everybody that isn't currently in a state of submission to him and he lies to people in ways they want to be lied to. That is his strategy and it is very disappointing that it has worked as well as it has. It has moved the US closer than it ever has been in my lifetime to electing a president that is a seriously mentally unstable individual that could have an unknown and potentially devastating on the world and the US.
 
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Trump walks into a dressing room? And people get upset? They do not know the world of modelling, do they? And in the 1970's I went to the men's showers in Sweden and three mothers were standing right there waiting for their kids with naked men and boys walking by.

The claims of the other women. They wish. Trump echoed my thought - look at her. It does not work that way that a man just gropes a woman. There are a few very quick subtle signals that a move will not be rejected before one can do it. Whether he did or not is debatable and not yet proven.

All these holier than thou politicians. Remember Strauss-Kahn. Now there was a pervert, cavorting with whores. Anthony Weiner - another pervert.

The French have a long tradition of mistresses, and the US makes nothing of it.

The SA President Zuma rapes his best friend's HIV daughter, and has a shower to wash away the HIV. The most powerful man in Africa. Another moral degenerate. Protected by his cronies he put in power.

Bill Clinton - the record speaks for itself.

Trump is a horny alpha-male, who has gotten caught on tape with some crude braggadocio remarks.

The Democrats forget Clinton policies. The Trump supporters want Trump policies.

Please type complete sentences next time.
 
Please type complete sentences next time.

That was a relatively coherent post.

Meanwhile an explanation as to why Clinton's lead isn't greater

from ppp

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

I am no longer surprised

There's been some surprise that the bottom hasn't fallen out on Trump even more than it already has this week. Here are some findings that explain why Trump's not seeing a greater decline in support:

-84% of Trump voters think that Hillary Clinton should be in prison, to only 6% who disagree with that notion. If you hate the opposing candidate so much you think she should be in jail, you're probably not jumping ship.

-Alex Jones floated the notion this week that Hillary Clinton is actually a demon, and 40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss that idea. This measurement pretty clearly shows that 40% of Trump's base is the InfoWars crowd, so they're not going to be too dissuaded by allegations of sexual misconduct.
 
That was a relatively coherent post.

Meanwhile an explanation as to why Clinton's lead isn't greater

from ppp

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

I am no longer surprised
-Alex Jones floated the notion this week that Hillary Clinton is actually a demon, and 40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss that idea. This measurement pretty clearly shows that 40% of Trump's base is the InfoWars crowd, so they're not going to be too dissuaded by allegations of sexual misconduct.
IOW, about 16% of the US electorate suffers from a severe psychiatric condition and belongs in the loony bin.

Scary.
 
survey results
40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss it.​

Is it possible that they were interpreting the question symbolically/metaphorically?

Maybe they were answering sarcastically (but not really)
 
Is anyone keeping count of the number of women now claiming to have been sexually assaulted by Trump?

Also, is there a fairly standard statute of limitations on that kind of crime in USA?
 
Trump walks into a dressing room? And people get upset? They do not know the world of modelling, do they? And in the 1970's I went to the men's showers in Sweden and three mothers were standing right there waiting for their kids with naked men and boys walking by.

Did you walk into the women's showers, when you didn't even have a child in there? Trump did. And boasted about it. Unless, of course, he lied.

And don't forget he represents the party that's been losing it's ever-hatin' mind over the possibility of trans-women in restrooms.
 
I still think it highly odd that Trump should think that dismissing his vulgar misogyny as locker room talk somehow makes it all right. I know many people like the idea of a president as a regular guy who's not too much smarter than they are, but the white house is not a locker room. At least yet.

If Trump were a good baseball player, I don't suppose that kind of talk would be so disturbing. After all, we expect some people to be immature, silly, boastful and coarse. That a significant percentage of people think expect the same of one of the most important and powerful men in the free world seems more than a little bothersome.
 
Is anyone keeping count of the number of women now claiming to have been sexually assaulted by Trump?

Also, is there a fairly standard statute of limitations on that kind of crime in USA?

It's not about prosecuting or even about suing. It's about destroying... his campaign... his brand... his deplorable-plus advisors.
 
survey results
40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss it.​
Is it possible that they were interpreting the question symbolically/metaphorically?

Maybe they were answering sarcastically (but not really)

They were expressing their hatred. The exact question is irrelevant. Any question, no matter how ridiculous, will get that minimum 40% answering whichever way paints Clinton in a negative light.
 
They were expressing their hatred. The exact question is irrelevant. Any question, no matter how ridiculous, will get that minimum 40% answering whichever way paints Clinton in a negative light.

Similar to the way 30 people in this forum chose the 100% chance that Trump would be elected as the most anti-Clinton option even even if the claim was ridiculous on its face?
 
I think Trumps only way to be president is a bj for every republicker big shot and all the state governors as well as the members of the electoral college.
 

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