Trump 2.0 won't be as bad as they say

[The Great Zaganza]

I would like to challenge the sentiment that a second Trump Term would be devastating.
I have seen little beyond vehement statements that it must be so, that Trump has now learned how to hire the right people and how to navigate politics for maximum damage, empowered by a Supreme Court that will let him do whatever.

I think this is misguided on multiple levels.

1: a lot of the damage to important causes such as orderly immigration,, female bodily autonomy, Chevron Deference, Presidential Immunity has occurred without Trump being in office, with Governors and the Supreme Court doing not less than what he would/could do in Office.

2: A Trump Deux would be a Lame Duck from the start: not even he would think that there is a way for him to get a third term. Republicans would look at the chasm they are approaching when Trump is definitely gone and look for replacements. Being in Office will create far more divisions in the GOP than being out of it. This will be amplified by Trump's efforts to make a Legacy for Himself, with no regard to what the Party wants.

3: looking at 2028, it is undoubtedly better for Democrats to lose to Trump now, and have four years of people seeing the result, than of four years of Harris getting little done in a divided Congress. A Democrat Win would undoubtedly feel like "another Steal" to the Republican Base, making it even harder to get them out of their Trump Lockstep, with of without Trump.

4: since Trump, the World has gotten ready to do its things without the US, with this Administration doing what it could to take Ukraine Aid out of the hands of the Presidency; and it would be very uncharacteristic for Trump to support Israel more than Biden is doing, at least not without a big Quid pro Quo.

I think that most evocations of impending doom are the result of Democrats reusing the playbook that got Biden elected.
But Trump 1.0 wasn't The End, so it sounds shrill to voters when Democrats insist that Trump Deux definitely will be.

 

[angrysoba]

Even if there is a lot of hyperbole around a Trump win causing the end of democracy, or the end of the United States (period), the issue is that he attempted, for all to see, to cling on to power at almost all costs. The fact that he was very incompetent at doing so does not change the fact that you should NEVER give someone like that another chance.

 

[shemp]

I agree. It won't be as bad as they say. It'll be worse.

 

[Random]

I was going to write a long and detailed post explaining why the OP was wrong, but don't have the time. Instead, you can just read my signature line.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I think my basic point is being missed: all the super-bad things will happen with or without Trump, because of Red State Governors and the Supreme Court will do it anyways - or already have.

Thing is, destroying democracy is a State and Supreme Court issue, not a White House one.

 

[Samson]

Even if there is a lot of hyperbole around a Trump win causing the end of democracy, or the end of the United States (period), the issue is that he attempted, for all to see, to cling on to power at almost all costs. The fact that he was very incompetent at doing so does not change the fact that you should NEVER give someone like that another chance.

On the face of it this is a disqualifying feature, so we need a work around.
Victor Davis Hansen makes several points in this podcast which I recommend spending the time to listen.
Towards the end he cites multiple occasions when democrats have kicked the inanimate object of defeat.

https://youtu.be/VAjTCLHSOmg?si=rwhuttr58FxFNTYB

 

[TragicMonkey]

I think my basic point is being missed: all the super-bad things will happen with or without Trump, because of Red State Governors and the Supreme Court will do it anyways - or already have.

Thing is, destroying democracy is a State and Supreme Court issue, not a White House one.

The slow advance of atherosclerosis will eventually kill the patient, therefore it's okay for them to do meth.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

I would like to challenge the sentiment that a second Trump Term would be devastating.
I have seen little beyond vehement statements that it must be so, that Trump has now learned how to hire the right people and how to navigate politics for maximum damage, empowered by a Supreme Court that will let him do whatever.

I think this is misguided on multiple levels.

1: a lot of the damage to important causes such as orderly immigration,, female bodily autonomy, Chevron Deference, Presidential Immunity has occurred without Trump being in office, with Governors and the Supreme Court doing not less than what he would/could do in Office.

There still is a lot of additional serious damage that Trump could accomplish, such as ending the independence of the Federal Reserve, effectively ending enforcement of environmental, health, and safety regulations, using his position to persecute his many enemies, and politicizing the federal work force, as well as setting a national attitude of anti-intellectualism.

2: A Trump Deux would be a Lame Duck from the start: not even he would think that there is a way for him to get a third term. Republicans would look at the chasm they are approaching when Trump is definitely gone and look for replacements. Being in Office will create far more divisions in the GOP than being out of it. This will be amplified by Trump's efforts to make a Legacy for Himself, with no regard to what the Party wants.

JD Vance has positioned himself as Trump's successor.

3: looking at 2028, it is undoubtedly better for Democrats to lose to Trump now, and have four years of people seeing the result, than of four years of Harris getting little done in a divided Congress. A Democrat Win would undoubtedly feel like "another Steal" to the Republican Base, making it even harder to get them out of their Trump Lockstep, with of without Trump.

We've already had 4 years of Trump displaying his incompetence and that his interest was primarily accruing personal financial benefits from being president, so I don't see how 4 more years of Trump displaying his incompetence and use of the presidency for personal financial gain will change anyone's opinion.

 

[Ziggurat]

There still is a lot of additional serious damage that Trump could accomplish, such as ending the independence of the Federal Reserve

It's only nominally independent.

effectively ending enforcement of environmental, health, and safety regulations

He might scale back some enforcement (and some enforcement needs to be scaled back because it was unconstitutional overreach), but he can't and won't end it. And nothing he can do on this front is irreversible.

using his position to persecute his many enemies

He didn't really do that his first term, I don't see this being any different in a second one. He talks a much bigger game than he plays.

and politicizing the federal work force

Bwahahahahahahaha!

Where have you been for the last few decades? The federal work force is already politicized.

as well as setting a national attitude of anti-intellectualism.

Anti-intellectualism? Or anti-credentialism? Because there are a whole lot of people walking around with fancy credentials who aren't actually competent, but demanding respect anyways.

We've already had 4 years of Trump displaying his incompetence and that his interest was primarily accruing personal financial benefits from being president

I've seen this claim made plenty of times, but I never see it backed up with anything substantive. The last estimates I saw gave Trump's net worth dropping while president. If making money was his goal, becoming president (and not taking his salary while doing so) doesn't actually seem like an effective method for doing so.

If actually you're worried about politicians illegitimately profiting from their time in office, I suggest you start looking at closing the insider trading loophole, which Congress regularly benefits from.

 

[ahhell]

What he will actually accomplish, cutting off aid to ukraine which will fulfill his promise of ending the war.

He well be surrounded by yes man that will try to implement his worst impulses, they will mostly fail because they mostly be illegal things without congress actually passing a law. He might get some of his stupidest economic ideas passed. And every week will be one constitutional crisis after another. He will most lose those battles, but it will be bad unless congress can actually impeach him, which would result in MAGA going nuts all over the country and possibly another Jan 6 event.

I wouldn't be surprised if China invades Tawain as they will likely think he won't defend Tawain, and they are probably right.

But he's not really a NAZI, so there won't be mass deportations or concentration camps or the like. He won't pass a nationwide ban on abortion; he won't shut down media he doesn't like. Yes, he does have authoritarian instincts but its mostly because he wants people to just do what he says and adore him. He doesn't have any real ideological commitments which is what you need for really evil **** to happen.

 

[I Am The Scum]

I'm not aware of any fascist leaders in history saying, "Well, that's enough for me. I think I'll begin to tone it down."

The man is on stage talking about the inferiority of immigrant genes and how they poison our nation's blood. The rhetoric coming form him is worse than it's ever been. The United States is not immune to repeating genocidal atrocities of the past. We're not special.

 

[Random]

But he's not really a NAZI, so there won't be mass deportations or concentration camps or the like. He won't pass a nationwide ban on abortion; he won't shut down media he doesn't like. Yes, he does have authoritarian instincts but its mostly because he wants people to just do what he says and adore him. He doesn't have any real ideological commitments which is what you need for really evil **** to happen.

Fascism doesn't really require leaders with a strong personal belief in Fascism. It just requires leaders who are willing to persecute their "enemies" a little bit more today than yesterday in order to keep their supporters happy. And there will always be "enemies", even if the leaders have to manufacture them themselves.

Fascism is inherently unstable and doomed to collapse, but the amount of damage it can do while in operation means that you have to actively oppose it at all times.

 

[Beerina]

The best case scenario is he is fought to a draw on most initiatives, as with the first term. A do nothing presidency at least isn't making things worse.

For that matter, most presidents initiatives end in zero, now that I think about it.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I think my basic point is being missed: all the super-bad things will happen with or without Trump, because of Red State Governors and the Supreme Court will do it anyways - or already have.

Thing is, destroying democracy is a State and Supreme Court issue, not a White House one.

True. The fascism has methastesised. The GOP is probably more dangerous with someone else than Dump at the helm. Which is why he might be 25 Amendment'ed at some point after taking office.

It's the GOP as a whole that's the threat at the moment, not just Dump. At least when (if) they lose in November, they'll continue their downward spiral and find themselves forced to reform, or collapse altogether.

 

[dirtywick]

no way trump is well enough to run in 2028 and i don't see how the maga political movement survives without him. maybe jd vance or mike johnson or hulk hogan can razzle dazzle the maga base to keep it going. i just don't see it.

 

[Segnosaur]

I would like to challenge the sentiment that a second Trump Term would be devastating.
I have seen little beyond vehement statements that it must be so, that Trump has now learned how to hire the right people and how to navigate politics for maximum damage, empowered by a Supreme Court that will let him do whatever.

I think this is misguided on multiple levels.

1: a lot of the damage to important causes such as orderly immigration,, female bodily autonomy, Chevron Deference, Presidential Immunity has occurred without Trump being in office, with Governors and the Supreme Court doing not less than what he would/could do in Office.

First of all, while much of the damage on certain issues (such as abortion right/presidential immunity/etc.) has already been done, the situation CAN get worse. We need actual rational/reasonable judges. Giving Trump/republicans another 4 years to stick hard-right judges (potentially on the supreme court as well as lower courts) will at best keep the existing damages, if not make them worse.

Secondly, there are still things that can be done... a second trump term can further mess up immigration and health care for example.

2: A Trump Deux would be a Lame Duck from the start: not even he would think that there is a way for him to get a third term. Republicans would look at the chasm they are approaching when Trump is definitely gone and look for replacements. Being in Office will create far more divisions in the GOP than being out of it. This will be amplified by Trump's efforts to make a Legacy for Himself, with no regard to what the Party wants.

Trump has already driven "reasonable" republicans from the party. And once Trump is gone, any future divisions will be various factions trying to out-MAGA each other.

3: looking at 2028, it is undoubtedly better for Democrats to lose to Trump now, and have four years of people seeing the result, than of four years of Harris getting little done in a divided Congress. A Democrat Win would undoubtedly feel like "another Steal" to the Republican Base, making it even harder to get them out of their Trump Lockstep, with of without Trump.

You are forgetting... MAGAchud are morons.

Look at the opinion polls that show Trump is "more trusted" on economic issues. This, despite the fact that he left office after his first term after increasing the deficit every year, and with a higher unemployment rate than when he started.

4: since Trump, the World has gotten ready to do its things without the US, with this Administration doing what it could to take Ukraine Aid out of the hands of the Presidency; and it would be very uncharacteristic for Trump to support Israel more than Biden is doing, at least not without a big Quid pro Quo.

The rest of the world has adjusted to the idea that the US cannot be trusted. But that doesn't mean that isolation by the US is a good thing. The world would be better off with the US as a reliable trading partner/provider of foreign aid/etc.

 

[johnny karate]

But he's not really a NAZI, so there won't be mass deportations or concentration camps or the like. He won't pass a nationwide ban on abortion; he won't shut down media he doesn't like. Yes, he does have authoritarian instincts but it's mostly because he wants people to just do what he says and adore him. He doesn't have any real ideological commitments which is what you need for really evil **** to happen.

It has gotten beyond tiresome to constantly be told that the guy who explicitly says he wants to do a bunch of terrible things probably won't be able to accomplish his goals of doing those terrible things, so everything is fine.

 

[acbytesla]

Who's to say? I've never been able to predict the future. I unfortunately didn't fill out my requisition for a crystal ball.

What I do know is people didn't have a clue about the damage Hitler could do before it was too late.

And NAZI Germany isn't just some wild outlier, the same is true about Stalin in the USSR, Franco in Spain, Mussolini in Italy, Mao in China, Pol Pot in Cambodia, Pinochet in Chile, Robespierre in France, Amin in Uganda, Saddamm Hussein in Iraq . Or Putin in today's Russia. A half a million of Russia's young men are dead because of Trump's buddy in Moscow. The list goes on and on of wannabe dictators getting power and damaging their countries for decades.

I can only go on what Trump and MAGA politicians have said they will do. Which is pretty god damn horrible.

 

[johnny karate]

Who's to say? I've never been able to predict the future. I unfortunately didn't fill out my requisition for a crystal ball.

What I do know is people didn't have a clue about the damage Hitler could do before it was too late.

And NAZI Germany isn't just some wild outlier, the same is true about Stalin in the USSR, Franco in Spain, Mussolini in Italy, Mao in China, Pol Pot in Cambodia, Pinochet in Chile, Robespierre in France, Amin in Uganda, Saddamm Hussein in Iraq . Or Putin in today's Russia. A half a million of Russia's young men are dead because of Trump's buddy in Moscow. The list goes on and on of wannabe dictators getting power and damaging their countries for decades.

I can only go on what Trump and MAGA politicians have said they will do. Which is pretty god damn horrible.

Phase One: It's ridiculous to think Republicans are fascist.

Phase Two: It's ridiculous to think Republicans will be able to accomplish their explicitly stated fascist goals.

Phase Three: Fascsim isn't so bad.

 

[Brainster]

I agree; despite the rhetoric, Trump will only make modest changes here and there. He'll fiddle with putting more tariffs on Chinese goods, and he might deport a few thousand illegals. Don't forget too that he will be a lame duck from the day he takes office.

That said, I really want him off the stage, and losing for a second time should result in him getting gonged (although I thought the same about him losing the first time).