Tory lead continues to shrink

Perhaps the memory of the electorate isn't as short as the Conservatives would wish, and the election's getting closer. As crunch point comes nearer, people who like to complain at the current government might tend to look back and ask themselves whether they really want the alternative.

Dave

I struggle to say that I will vote Labour this time, but there is no way I can vote Tory as I simply do not believe that the party is substantially different to pre-1997. (Although I am in one of the safest Tory seats in the country so it's all a bit moot!) I am tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats, may as well doubly waste that vote!
 
There's no doubt now, the polls are tightening.

Over the last week we’ve had no fewer than five YouGov polls showing the Conservative lead shrinking to only six points, but apart from a 7 point lead from ICM we haven’t had much from other pollsters to see if they are picking up the same trend – Angus Reid tend to show very different Labour figures anyway, and we have no recent historical trend data from Harris to compare.

Tomorrow’s Telegraph however carries the figures from a new Ipsos-MORI poll that shows a very similar lead to YouGov. The topline figures are CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+3). We have to go all the way back to December 2008 to find a Tory lead as low as five points.

The poll was conducted between Friday and Monday last weekend.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

Just 5 points! With just 9/10 weeks to go this is exciting.

My half-baked theory for the continued drop in Tory support is that the Conservatives have actually appeared to be the ruling party for the last few years, given their large and continuous lead in the polls and the increasing margilisation of the Labour Party. Cameron seems like the controlling figure and is far more telegenic than Brown. Like Governments, the public may have started to get sick of him. It seems Brown hasn't been hurt in the polls by his bully-reputation, and its possible Cameron's nice guy image isn't all that appealing to Britons who want some meat in their meal.

Or it may be that unemployment is historically low for a recession. Who knows.
 
I am tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats, may as well doubly waste that vote!


:(

I have always been a Liberal Democrat voter.

I refuse to vote Conservative bcause I remember Thatcher, and then Major making a real mess of things. I naively thought once Labour got in that things might actually you know change, but no same old same old.

I still remember watching election night coverage back when Patten was getting booted out of his safe seat, a crowd was outside the Town Hall or wherever the votes were being counted chanting "Tories out! Tories out!"
not long after that Blair and co. got onto a stage and they played "Things can only get better" as the sun rose.

I remember thinking to myself maybe they're right, despite hating that D:Ream song there was a feeling of euphoria that night....

Fast forward another deacde and here we go again.

I firmly believe that if you got everyone in the entire country to look at the policies and promises of the 3 main political parties and then if everyone voted based on which parties policies most closely lined up with their own, that the Lib Dems would win by a landslide.

Every night I watch a General Election, I am glued to the TV thinking "one time" "one time" ....

Sad thing is that even if it did happen and the government was run by those yellow people, whose emblem is a 7 winged flying worm, would much actually change?

I wonder if there will be BBC footage come election night, of a crowd of Tory supporters, replete with soundbite friendly placards, clustered around a famous landmark of some safe seat Labour city shouting "Labour Out! Labour Out!" and whether they'll be the same shouting people as last time around...

Do you ever wonder the older you get whether there is such a thing as too cynical?
 
:(

I have always been a Liberal Democrat voter.

I refuse to vote Conservative bcause I remember Thatcher, and then Major making a real mess of things. I naively thought once Labour got in that things might actually you know change, but no same old same old.

I still remember watching election night coverage back when Patten was getting booted out of his safe seat, a crowd was outside the Town Hall or wherever the votes were being counted chanting "Tories out! Tories out!"
not long after that Blair and co. got onto a stage and they played "Things can only get better" as the sun rose.

I remember thinking to myself maybe they're right, despite hating that D:Ream song there was a feeling of euphoria that night....

Fast forward another deacde and here we go again.

I firmly believe that if you got everyone in the entire country to look at the policies and promises of the 3 main political parties and then if everyone voted based on which parties policies most closely lined up with their own, that the Lib Dems would win by a landslide.

Every night I watch a General Election, I am glued to the TV thinking "one time" "one time" ....

Sad thing is that even if it did happen and the government was run by those yellow people, whose emblem is a 7 winged flying worm, would much actually change?

I wonder if there will be BBC footage come election night, of a crowd of Tory supporters, replete with soundbite friendly placards, clustered around a famous landmark of some safe seat Labour city shouting "Labour Out! Labour Out!" and whether they'll be the same shouting people as last time around...

Do you ever wonder the older you get whether there is such a thing as too cynical?
I'm a Lib Dib too, signed on member of the party and all, but that's just because they're the most left wing party we have that don't have the words "workers" or "Arthur Scargil" in them.

I might vote LAbour though, purely because they have a better chance of ousting the utter imbecile who is my MP; David Treadinit. Stupid piece of slime he is.
 
My untested theory is that increased fear of no overall control of government will help it to be a self-repelling outcome on the day. So that means Tory majority still the most likely IMO. Or if Labour gets back in front, then Labour victory (and Brown would get his "John Major" term)
 
I can't help seeing this as hyperbole. The national minimum wage, the abolition of Clause 28, paternity leave, 18-months to 18-weeks, civil partnerships, 8% reduction in crime, the lowest unemployment during a recession in the last half-century, the ban on cluster bombs and surestart are among their achievements.

And the smoking ban.
 
Tory lead (In one poll) just two points!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

I still would put money on a tory win - the national polling doesn't take into account

1) the disparities of wealth between labour and the tories - the tories have plenty of money to spend on marginals, labour are almost bankrupt (not sure what that says about their ability to run the country if they can't even run their own party....)

2) the expenses scandal - this has disproportionately affected labour simply because there are more sitting labour mps. When it comes to the campaigns, any sitting mp is going to get hammered with all their dirty linnen aired on opposition flyers.....

William Hill have

4/7 A David "call me Dave" Cameron win
6/4 a well-hung parliament
10/1 a victory for Grim Gordo ably assisted by his puppet master overlord, the Prince of Darkness....
 
2) the expenses scandal - this has disproportionately affected labour simply because there are more sitting labour mps.

True, but on the other hand the bits that have stuck in the minds of the general public are the duck island and the moat cleaning, which does help to recrystallise that image of tories=toffs and damn the rest of you, which helps set the backdrop even if individual MPs can be criticised.

Back when Major won, the polls strongly indicated that there would be a Tory defeat. It seemed that while people secretly wanted to vote Conservative, it was deemed to be a very unpopular choice and so when pollsters asked them how they would vote they lied. But, in the privacy of the polling booth they could vote how they wanted.

I wonder if that kind of thing will play a part this time round as well. Is voting Tory still something to be ashamed of?* Is claiming to vote against Labour thought to be the "right" thing to say to pollsters, and will they do even better in the real poll than the polls think?

*Yes it is. Pull yourself together and vote for someone else.
 
Wonder how this "confirmation" (as if we didn't already know it) will be played out: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8542744.stm

And it is an important point, this is someone who has been providing huge support for conservative elections campaigns, especially in marginal seats, and since he is also a senior member of the party it can't simply be brushed off (well it can be as I predict we shall see).
 
(as if we didn't already know it)

So, they've finally admitted it, eh?

Based on this quote:

Lord Ashcroft said:
"As for the future, while the non-dom status will continue for many people in business or public life, David Cameron has said that anyone sitting in the legislature - Lords or Commons - must be treated as resident and domiciled in the UK for tax purposes," he said. "I agree with this change and expect to be sitting in the House of Lords for many years to come."

Does that indicate that he's promising to become domiciled here? Because he's made that promise before:

him again said:
It had been suggested that when William Hague proposed him for a peerage in 2000 the then Michael Ashcroft had given assurances that he would be resident in Britain for tax purposes.
But in his statement Lord Ashcroft said his undertaking was to "take up permanent residence in the UK again" by the end of that year


- ten years on and he still hasn't quite got around to it.
 
Can someone explain to me what being a non-dom is?

The 'shy Tory' effect may still be in force, but then again there may be a 'shy Labour' effect. Who would really admit to voting Labour these days?

It's possible the polling doesn't take into account the marginals the Tories have been targeting aggressively. Isn't calculating who is going to win based on national polls rather risky, in the same way calculating who is going to win in the States based on national polls (November 2000 anyone?) rather useless?
 
Can someone explain to me what being a non-dom is?

It means that you live in the UK, but have arranged your accounts in such a way that you appear to be living in the UK temporarily for tax purposes. So you end up paying tax only on what you earn in Britain which is not necessarily very much if your billions are being earned in Belize.

A bit of blurb about it. It's deemed to be especially naughty in Ashcroft's case because it was understood that he would have to pay full UK taxes if he got elevated to the peerage. He got his peerage alright and is actually working for - and to some extent paying for - the Tory party, but hasn't followed up on the tax part. And everyone involved knows it's a bit dodgy, to judge from the way they've been studiously avoiding the question for the last ten years.

Edit: Nick Robinson explains it better than I can.
 
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The Tories are trying to claim it is no different from Lord Paul's position:

...snip...

Welcoming Lord Ashcroft's statement on Monday, a Conservative Party spokesman said: "It is clear, therefore, that Lord Ashcroft has the same status as several Labour donors including Lord Paul - recently appointed to the Privy Council on the recommendation of Gordon Brown's government."

...snip...

Just had a look and I'm pretty sure that Lord Paul is not the vice-chairman of the Labour party and is not working on the up-coming general election campaign....
 

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