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Tory cuts

Fiona, as I hope you read I am well aware that legitimate people who should be on invalidity and disability don't get it. The system is broken. However, there are also people who shouldn't be getting it who do. The system is broken. The fact that it is regularly checked doesn't mean people who shouldn't be getting it aren't. Tax is regularly checked too, but not everyone pays their taxes.

The fact that the system is not perfect does not translate to "the system is broken". It is far too difficult to get, and keep, invalidity and disability benefits: and the measures used are deeply flawed. But however you do it, and whatever criteria you use, there will be some who fall through the net and some who get what they are not reasonably entitled to. So long as those are few either way the system is defensible. At present the balance is not good: far, far too many who qualify do not get the benefit. This is a consequence of the belief that there are all these shirkers who are getting benefits they do not deserve.

There have been attacks on the disabled many times in the last couple of decades. A great deal of money has been spent in the effort to find and bar from benefit all those shirkers. That money has been wasted. For example there was a major "crackdown" in 2004 reorted in a review called " Fraud, Error, and Incorrectness in Disability Living Allowance"

It claimed that 9% of DLA was overpaid and 2.5% underpaid. Of this 9% overpayment 0.5% was due to fraud. The bulk was due to changes in circumstances. Not good, but not quite a justification for the picture often painted even if you accept the figures at face value

This kind of reporting goes on and on. For example:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=512751&in_page_id=2

Note the disparity between the headline implication and the body of the article: not also that these are not real figures

Figures revealed in a parliamentary answer show that officials believe some £60m was paid out to fraudulent recipients of disability living allowance in 2009/10 - up from £40m in 2004/05, the first year for which estimates are available.

Given the history of this issue I could not give a tuppeny toss about what "officials believe". We have heard this song again and again: always the same tune and always the same bum notes


The same story goes for other benefits as well. Figures for "fraud" have been bandied about and have contributed to the public perception that this is very widespread and very serious: it has been used as justification for introducing measures which are neither effective nor fair, to address a problem which has not been shown to exist. I want to make it plain that I am not denying the existence of fraud: nor am I suggesting it should not be tackled: but I am opposed to thrashing about looking for the questing beast in the bushes at great cost.

http://www.cpag.org.uk/info/Povertyarticles/Poverty108/fraud.htm

It is worse now than it was when that article was written, however. We are now paying out large sums for woo which is used to underpin those estimates. Voice recognition software, forsooth :rolleyes:

http://www.benefitfraud.org.uk/total-benefit-fraud/index.html

This hostile website is not untypical of the kinds of utterly indefensible means of estimating the level of fraud: and of course we are now paying private firms to detect fraud: no vested interest in chasing people off benefit there at all, naturally. And of course those private firms are doing something never done before: not. Fraud investigation into cohabitation has always existed: it took the welfare rights service to challenge those disgraceful abuses and make the Benefits Agency actually provide some evidence in support of their decisions.

If you think I am making myself out to be a special deserving case then you've misunderstood my point. My point was that the system doesn't produce the outcomes it should be producing for anyone or for the country. Nor do I think its fair, reasonable or sustainable to keep asking people to put their hands in their pockets more and more to fund a system that doesn't benefit them. The tax burden in the UK is over 40% on average, exactly how much does the government need to deliver decent services to everyone? Pay more tax is not the answer, it's like filling a leaky bucket when the system is broken.


I understand that that is your opinion

On the wage calc, small points:

1. I'll give you the 12.5k on tax, I was doing rough calcs.
2. 1.5k is not a fancy house, it does include water rates in Scotland though

Ok

3. Most people don't have non-contributory pensions anymore. Certainly I haven't.

Most people have never had non-contributory pensions, actually. But a lot of people did have work based contributory pensions. The poor? Not so much

4. Work clothes are different to day to day clothes for most people. If I didn't work I don't think I would own a suit, certainly not more than one for example.

Sure. But you still have to wear something. And so does someone who works for a minimum wage


5. Your minimum wage calculation is fine but irrelevant. I'm not arguing that the minimum wage is right or wrong.

No. actually what you sought to argue was that you had a similar amount of disposable income to those on benefit and on the minimum wage. It is very far from irrelevant to that.

Your conclusion that people are working for 150 a year does however demonstrate where our logics part ways. You make the assumption that people should be entitled to benefit in perpetuity and therefore working should be something that is additional to it. I argue that benefits should be temporary and therefore working is what you need to do eventually regardless of whether its the same as benefits or not. I don't think people have the right to say they don't want to work because its not worth their while.

They have no such right. Your point throughout has been that there are people who prefer to live on benefits as a "lifestyle choice" and that they should be prevented from doing so. To sustain that point you have sought to show that such people are living as well as you were, as a high rate taxpayer. I have shown that this is not supported by the facts: you have countered with opinion.

But if you were correct then it follows that you personally do not work for money: you would live just as well on benefit, so that is not your motivation. I infer from your opus that you see it as a moral obligation, and that is why you do it. Oddly, most people would partially agree that there are incentives other than money: and that work has some intrinsic value, and some social value. It is curious, then, that we have to pay our very high earners great big bonuses in order to motivate them, is it not? They are obviously going to work without them,so why bother? It is curious that we have to cut benefits in order to motivate the poor as well: we would cut the deficit much quicker if we just set a national maximum income. And it would make no difference at all, according to you. So I suggest that is what we should do. We will pay everybody the national minimum wage from age 16: with the proviso that they all work 35 hours a week. Vote for me to see the logic of your position implemented ;)

But I suspect that is not at all what you mean.

But the big point is the one you won't give me. People who are sensible and make sound financial plans WILL SAVE A PERCENTAGE OF THEIR SALARY. Yes, its a choice. It's a choice not to be wholly reliant on state aid should bad things happen. A choice that people who are wholly reliant on state aid have no need to make. We are talking lifestyle here not earnings.

This is irrelevant to the point you were making: you attempted to hide a portion of your income in order to demonstrate that you were exactly as well off as people on benefit. It is what tax avoiders do, as well. They hide parts of their income so they do not have to pay tax on it: but just because it is in an offshore account does not magically change its character: and that you choose to save some of your income does not magically change its character either. Certainly you are doing nothing wrong (unlike the tax avoider): but the mindset is the same.

But on your other point: We are talking earnings. How much are you saving from your £65 per week? You said that everyone can save something: so how much? Upthread you said it is impossible to live on it, but yet you are saving from it. That is a good trick and I would like to learn it.

This was my whole argument and the fact you have dismissed it in one line means either you didn't get it or I didn't explain it well.

Your have not explained it well: for example you have said that the "knuckle draggers" you meet at the broo are all better dressed than you: and you have said that they can't get jobs because they don't wash and are badly dressed. You have said that they drive brand new cars: but you have not explained to me how they manage to do that on £102 per week and I am anxiously awaiting the secret: as you must be as well: I don't see how you are going to manage that car once you are entitled to that £102 when your savings run out and you are eligible for it. The extra £37 pounds a week is going to do it, presumably? Can't see how you are going to buy it and run it and tax and insure it on that, myself. Are we to conclude that you are incompetent? Funny that: I am incompetent in just the same way. We should both give up the idea of working and let these financial geniuses take over, methinks. You have said that these "knuckle draggers" do not have to make any effort to get work: and you have said that at the end of your 12 weeks you are going to be forced to take a job in a sandwich shop or whatever: and you have said that you are not trying to argue that you are specially harshly treated. You are all over the place, I am afraid

The system as it stands does not encourage people to make sound financial planning decisions. It encourages people (poor, middle class and rich) to spend everything they have and in fact punishes you for saving.

"The system" (whatever that means) does not do that at all. You save when you are working: I save when I am working. I bet lots of people here would say the same. As I said above I have read that most people have a cushion of about 3 months wages: that is not enough, for sure. But sound financial planning is exactly what that is, contrary to your view. The rate of interest you can get on savings is below inflation. So if you save you are losing money. That is not a sound financial decision. It is a sensible decision for other reasons: but not on financial grounds. What is sound financial planning is putting your money into property, as you well know. That is because the low interest rates exist in order to foster a "property owning democracy" or some such notion. And house price inflation is not a bad thing for some reason: though all other forms of inflation are seen as bad. We do not hear gloomy announcements that house prices are rapidly inflating: we hear instead warm words like a "booming property market" when they rise. That attitude is nothing to do with "the system": but it does mean that interest rates cannot be allowed to rise, and so make saving a sound financial decision. Look elsewhere for the source of the evils you perceive. I think you will find that the ideology driven decisions, which led to removal of credit control and many other regulations which were put in place after the last debacle generated by just this kind of economic approach, are the reason for most of the ills you perceive.

It encourages people to max themselves out on mortgages, credit and loans they can't afford and then when it all goes boobs to the sky people look at it amazed that somehow that wasn't a good idea. Then the people who managed to save a bit and didn't spunk their money away are asked to pay more again and again to sort out the mess that other people got themselves into because... well they can.

Sorry I don't see that you are being asked to pay anything at present. You seem to be in receipt of benefits you don't need, actually.

We seem to have lost the sense of personal responsibility and it seems to have come partly with the expansion of the 'nanny state' coupled with rampant consumerism and media telling people they deserve to have everything their neighbours do. There is no sense of living within your means.

Speak for yourself :)

So the people that do get punished. That goes for the poor the middle class and the rich.

I save: I have not been "punished" in any way. That you think you have been is probably a pretty fundamental disagreement

Some fundamental questions that I think underpin some of our disagreements.

1. Do you believe a person has the right to a certain standard of living and that the state has an obligation to provide that in perpetuity?If so why?

Yes I do think that people should have a decent standard of living within the norms of the mainstream society they inhabit. I believe it because I believe in the social contract. A contract has two parties and they should both meet their obligations. The state has reneged on their side of it, to some extent: and, as Darat pointed out, the other party has partially withdrawn as well, arguably. This is not yet fully fledged, but that is the way we are heading.

2. Is there justification for national minimum wage to be less than people can receive on benefits? Or put it another way, should anyone on benefits be getting more than national minimum wage. If so, why?

Pragmatism. I would prefer it if there was a living wage rather than a minimum wage: but we are not prepared to do that.

The alternatives I can see are these:

1.set the minimum wage at a poverty level which suits business: and avoid starvation by topping it up through benefits. This way we can ensure that employers make loadsa money with businesses that are not viable. What we are doing is not giving money to the poor: we are giving it to the business men: they would prefer you not to notice that, though. This is the option we have chosen and it means the minimum wage is almost equal to benefits, as I have shown above.

2. set a "living wage" and pay benefits below that level. So long as the level of benefits is not lower than the amount needed to fully participate in our society that seems fine to me. ( based on something like Rowntree's work in 1936 and 1950: that was part of the underpinning of the benefits levels originally set (though they cut it below his recommendation): it would do us no harm to repeat the exercise for the modern world) To do this you would have to cap the maximum wage as well, I think. Poverty is a relative concept. The important thing is not the absolute levels of income: it is the disparity. We can cap the maximum wage through the tax system but it is not that effective unless we choose to enforce it: so I would not be averse to the percentage idea: top earners have a set multiple of the lowest earners wages. That would also be open to abuse but all systems are: if we enforce it well enough that is good enough.

3. Set the minimum wage at a medium level (below the living wage but within striking distance of it) and deal with those who find that puts them in poverty, in much the same way we do now: but with fewer needing the benefits top up because of the higher rate

In all three cases there will be no-one in work on less than benefits; but only because benefits will top it up to the benefit level. That is the conclusion from every attempt to avoid the benefits trap. :For myself I would rather see that those in work get more than a straight top up: top up plus, if you like. As we have done that in the past there has always been a tapering problem: but we can lift it to benefit rates and then add a flat rate premium if you like. That woud solve that problem maybe.

The problem is inherently complicated and every proposal has a downside.

3. What is the basic purpose of the welfare state as you see it?

Interesting question: I suppose I have a number of thoughts not clearly conceptualised. In the first instance I do not believe we can follow the utilitarians and go for the greatest good of the greatest number: but I think we can go for the least misery for the greatest number. (for certain values of misery: not talking emotions here: a more victorian use of the word, perhaps). But I think my notions is closer to the idea that we treat everybody as "us". That is why your position so enrages me: you seem to want to do the opposite.

4. Should people receive in proportion to their need, in proportion to their contribution, at a flat rate regardless or in some other way?

I would start with need. That is not an easy thing to determine but neither is it impossible: we have been making inroads into that since at least 1899 when Rowntree produced his first survey. By 1950 it was already more sophisticated than the original conception of an amount needed for physical survival: relative poverty was understood by then an it is an intrinsic part of my conception of need

Once we have established a level of need then everyone should get that level, no matter their circumstances. What else we may decide to do is not so important.
 
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...snip...

This hostile website is not untypical of the kinds of utterly indefensible means of estimating the level of fraud: and of course we are now paying private firms to detect fraud: no vested interest in chasing people off benefit there at all, naturally. And of course those private firms are doing something never done before: not. Fraud investigation into cohabitation has always existed: it took the welfare rights service to challenge those disgraceful abuses and make the Benefits Agency actually provide some evidence in support of their decisions.

...snip...

Just on this point looking back a few decades we see the hypocrisy in the tack governments take on benefits. When the Tories were busy passing Section 28 they also were treating two men living together as a married couple for benefit claims but not for tax claims or anything else, such as inheritance or tenancy security.
 
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As long as the current system that allows the richer to avoid (and evade) tax are sorted out. (For example Ashcroft's latest avoidance measures.)

American revolution: "No taxation without representation"

Ashcroft:

Representation without taxation
 
The fact that the system is not perfect does not translate to "the system is broken".

In the interests of not getting drawn into a never ending argument on the internet I'm prepared to pretty much agree to disagree. We seem to have fundamental differences on what is 'fair' and what the purpose of benefits should be.

You are dismissing my experiences as opinion and yet accept the experiences of others as facts.

My whole argument has been that people genuinely in need get a rough deal, that people who have contributed a lot to the system get very little in return and that people who know how to work the system can do very well out of it. You seem to have a fundamental disagreement to this based on the 'facts' of your knowledge of areas where the streets are empty, where there are no jobs to be found for anyone and where the people are so feckless that a life on benefits is the best they can hope for and/or deserve. For all its faults I really don't think life in Britain is quite at that stage yet for any but a tiny tiny minority.

I don't think that represents fairness and if that's the social contract then I don't think its a particularly good one for anyone involved.
 
Fairness. Should the unemployed rich get it? Stay at home wives?

God forbid that the people who contribute to the system should get anything out of it?

Presumably it would all come out in the wash anyway as income tax rates would probably rise.

I think the proposed system is an interesting one and worth exploring. At the moment the system seems to be neither fish nor foul, it doesn't particularly guarantee a living wage for anyone, not does it do much to support people to get back to work, nor does it act as insurance for those in employment.

I don't really think we can decide on what the right system should be until we decide what the objective is. Unfortunately I doubt we will ever get beyond the idea of the unemployed as a burden to be managed in the way that minimises both cost and the political impact of the decision.
 
Interesting question: I suppose I have a number of thoughts not clearly conceptualised. In the first instance I do not believe we can follow the utilitarians and go for the greatest good of the greatest number: but I think we can go for the least misery for the greatest number. (for certain values of misery: not talking emotions here: a more victorian use of the word, perhaps). But I think my notions is closer to the idea that we treat everybody as "us". That is why your position so enrages me: you seem to want to do the opposite.

Hopefully forgiven for coming back to this point. Apologies for multiple postings.

I think this is a really interesting point. In the interests of a 'fair' and equitable system then treating everyone like 'us' is something I am very happy to do. However it cuts both ways. When Cameron tells people they have broad shoulders and need to do a bit more that's not treating people like 'us' - that's singling people out as being different and better able to contribute more. So it seems somehow that people with a bit more are 'different' to those with a bit less.

It's also why I get caught up on this concept of 'need' - why should it matter what I need or that I get a bit more than what I need if everyone gets the same? The system is making these distinctions all the time.

There seems to be a fundamental underlying idea circulating in political systems that somehow those in bad situations have gotten there through no fault of their own and somehow those in better off situations got there because they had every advantage and just got lucky and deserve to give to those who just didn't get the same breaks. I don't think that encourages a sense of 'us' I think it encourages a sense of envy and entitlement.

It doesn't help that the political classes appear to be divided into the wealthy who are so disconnected from reality that they have no concept of the real world and the bleeding heart lefties who want to mother everyone because they just can't be trusted to look after themselves.

Of course there are exceptions to all of this. If everything was black and white we wouldn't need politics in the first place, but don't tell me we are all in this together then start telling people they are somehow special.
 
Ah well, you are probably correct: there is not a lot of point in "bleeding heart lefties" with facts,arguing with "lumpen bourgeoisie trash" with opinions. So there we must leave it :)
 
Unifying the system is not a bad idea in itself: if it was being done for the good reasons which exist I would support it. But it isn't. It is being done to save money.
:wackyconfused:


Universal benefits have many advantages.
And rather bigger disadvantages in that they cost a fortune and are not very redistributive. Given that they are also not public goods, there is very little economic or moral legitimacy in them being provided by governments.


Oh and of course it [benefit cap] breaks the fundamental idea behind the "social contract" that we have had since the second world war, and that is benefits are meant to be about what is needed.
But universal child benefit (and any universal benefit) is squarely against allocation on the basis of "need", since every household with children receives it. Removing it from high rate taxpayers aligns the program more closely to that doctrine.


once the principle of non universality is established we will see further moves:means testing will follow, or so I think
The principle of non-universality has been established for decades in the realm of higher education grants (as one example). Of course it can be taken further.


[ . . . ] so long as you are absolutely clueless about what tax and benefits are for in the "social contract" sense Darat alluded to
The "welfare state" social contract--that of lifelong welfare, much of it universal, proposed in the Beveridge report, started getting dismantled within a few years of it being implemented. The reason why is that the high levels of tax required to fund it became (and still are) too unpopular (not to mention economically inefficient).


Maintaining universal welfare today amounts to a cruel joke played by the retiring generation on all future generations, and it is a morally destitute position IMO. Alas, as the retiring generation garners more electoral clout, it becomes very difficult to change through the political process. Apparently the economic crisis was one of the few developments capable of forcing necessary fiscal change in advance of catastrophe.

While I think you have a point regarding the baby boomers v everyone else don't forget that the emergency budget effected the poorest the most (regardless of age):
On welfare cuts hitting the poor--whatever governments say; that is pretty much inevitable. The poor are the primary beneficiaries of income transfer redistribution so it is almost impossible to significantly reduce this spending without it hitting the poor . . . except in the case of the remaining universal benefits, like child benefit.

It is baffling in the extreme to see both left and right wing folks opposed to cutting universal benefits from high-rate taxpayers. Failure to implement this type of policy can only mean a greater relative hit to the poor from cutting other benefits. How could it possibly be otherwise? (I suspect that, pace the protests from people who in many cases just want to protest, the majority of the nation’s electorate regard it as pretty reasonable that child benefit becomes non-universal.)

if the CB cut goes through such universal benefits [as winter fuel] are likely to follow, I think. Travel is not a central government provision so far as I am aware: and pensions are certainly being cut: they are not to be paid till later: what is that but a cut?
I would not be surprised to see the other universal benefits (winter fuel, TV licence, free bus travel) be axed for high income people as well (although more pre-election promises would need to be broken). I certainly think they should be. Same goes for the state pension. I am aware of no argument for universality of transfer payments that is persuasive enough in the other direction--certainly not the idea that it "locks everyone in" so that they support it out of self-interest. "Benefits for the poor => poor services" would argue that everyone should get every type of benefit, or nobody should get any. It is not a reasonable argument for universality at all and makes a mockery of the concept of income redistribution.

Pensions are indeed long term: but I do not agree at all that demographics is much of a problem: at least not inherently. We have far greater potential productivity than we had in the past: we can produce more with fewer people
How are you measuring productivity?


There are some offsets to rising pension costs if the fertility rate drops (as it has)--mainly centred around the opportunity to reduce public spending on the young ( . . . like, child benefit). Those do not apply in the case of rising longevity.

Productivity is not sufficient to fund rising dependency unless you make highly optimistic assumptions about it. IMO one of the authorities (to whom I am obviously appealing here) on productivity and growth is Dale Jorgenson (Harvard) whose conclusion is summarised in table 1 page 16 (optimistic case for UK productivity growth 2006-2016 = 2.1%)

Demographic shifts are cause for celebration rather than a financial problem--just as long as incompatible practices like fixed retirement ages and universal entitlements are allowed to shift with them. Even demographic optimists agree with this (links go to UNDESA, IMF and OECD). I have not seen any non-handwavy analysis that suggests public pension provision does not need to change.

From what I understand that is pretty much the principle behind IDF's [sic] "universal benefit", and I would support something like that no matter what party it came from.
It is functionally equivalent to a negative income tax, which is an idea first proposed by Liberal-->Tory peer Juliet Rhys-Williams and Chicago school daddy Milton Friedman.
 
And rather bigger disadvantages in that they cost a fortune and are not very redistributive. Given that they are also not public goods, there is very little economic or moral legitimacy in them being provided by governments.

Child Benefit is certainly redistributive. It redistributes money from those without children to those with children. You have more costs if you are bringing up children than if you do not, in every income group. Those who choose to have children mainly do so because they want to and it is perfectly arguable that this is the same kind of choice as buying a Ferrari and foregoing something else in order to do so. But it is equally possible to argue that raising children is something which benefits us all, as I think. This is part of what I see as the social contract. It is not solely about redistribution across income groups: it is also about redistribution within income groups in recognition of costs some incur on behalf of us all. No doubt one can point to other things which are not so recognised: but there existence does nothing to undermine the principle, IMO. That you imagine redistribution can only be between rich and poor suggests you have a very different conception of the common good and the inclusionary nature of the social contract. I imagine we will never agree about that but you can at least understand that your argument here does not address the point at all. For me it is certainly a public good

As to it costing a fortune? Depends what you mean by a fortune. It cost 11.2 billion last year. 9 out of 10 famiies with children qualified for tax credits in the same year: so the actual cost of paying CB as a universal benefit is somewhere around 1 billion if we can assume that those who get tax credits are not higher rate payers. You also have to factor in the comparative costs of administering a universal benefit against those of a means tested system: universal is cheaper.

It cost 850 billion to bail out the banks and we are not finished yet. Running costs for trident are 1 billion a year and if they replace it that is likely to rise (impossible to find unbiased estimates of the actual costs given cost overruns which are endemic: and little agreement about what should be included). So no, I don't think it costs a fortune.

I consider it has both economic and moral legitimacy, for these reasons and those given earlier

But universal child benefit (and any universal benefit) is squarely against allocation on the basis of "need", since every household with children receives it. Removing it from high rate taxpayers aligns the program more closely to that doctrine.

Yes, of course it is. I am opposed to that doctrine (and I think the word is well chosen ) for reasons given. What you seem to do here is to conflate the concept of the social contract with a particular political analysis: that is not an answer: it is an illustration of the disagreement

The principle of non-universality has been established for decades in the realm of higher education grants (as one example). Of course it can be taken further.

Hardly. Some benefits etc are means tested and some are not. I think that has always been true. There are arguments to be had about which should be universal (if any) and why: education grants is a good and topical example. But the fact that they have been dealt with in one way says nothing about the principle of universality for CB: to say that you would have to show that what is to be considered is identical. That requires more than a demonstration of the dangers of the slippery slope, so often decried as irrational but seen in your post to be a perfectly reasonable anxiety :)

The "welfare state" social contract--that of lifelong welfare, much of it universal, proposed in the Beveridge report, started getting dismantled within a few years of it being implemented. The reason why is that the high levels of tax required to fund it became (and still are) too unpopular (not to mention economically inefficient).

I disagree with your analysis of the reasons: I doubt either of us can make the case, however, because the factors in play are too many and too complicated

Maintaining universal welfare today amounts to a cruel joke played by the retiring generation on all future generations, and it is a morally destitute position IMO. Alas, as the retiring generation garners more electoral clout, it becomes very difficult to change through the political process. Apparently the economic crisis was one of the few developments capable of forcing necessary fiscal change in advance of catastrophe.

Opinion noted.

On welfare cuts hitting the poor--whatever governments say; that is pretty much inevitable. The poor are the primary beneficiaries of income transfer redistribution so it is almost impossible to significantly reduce this spending without it hitting the poor . . . except in the case of the remaining universal benefits, like child benefit.

Indeed: that is why it is a morally destitute policy, IMO.

It is baffling in the extreme to see both left and right wing folks opposed to cutting universal benefits from high-rate taxpayers. Failure to implement this type of policy can only mean a greater relative hit to the poor from cutting other benefits. How could it possibly be otherwise? (I suspect that, pace the protests from people who in many cases just want to protest, the majority of the nation’s electorate regard it as pretty reasonable that child benefit becomes non-universal.)

That is a beautiful false dichotomy you have there: seldom seen a finer example :)

I would not be surprised to see the other universal benefits (winter fuel, TV licence, free bus travel) be axed for high income people as well (although more pre-election promises would need to be broken). I certainly think they should be. Same goes for the state pension. I am aware of no argument for universality of transfer payments that is persuasive enough in the other direction--certainly not the idea that it "locks everyone in" so that they support it out of self-interest. "Benefits for the poor => poor services" would argue that everyone should get every type of benefit, or nobody should get any. It is not a reasonable argument for universality at all and makes a mockery of the concept of income redistribution.

Opinion noted.


With reference to Italy, France and the US

There are some offsets to rising pension costs if the fertility rate drops (as it has)--mainly centred around the opportunity to reduce public spending on the young ( . . . like, child benefit). Those do not apply in the case of rising longevity.

Of course they do: the comparison needs to be made on the proportions of dependent and non-dependent people of whatever stripe. Do you have figures which show that this is a structural problem which is based on increased longevity? How have you included high unemployment, steady levels of economic inactivity, the lower birth rates which you mention?

Productivity is not sufficient to fund rising dependency unless you make highly optimistic assumptions about it. IMO one of the authorities (to whom I am obviously appealing here) on productivity and growth is Dale Jorgenson (Harvard) whose conclusion is summarised in table 1 page 16 (optimistic case for UK productivity growth 2006-2016 = 2.1%)

Need figures for actual productivity rather than for projected growth for this to be relevant: don't see them there, though I may have missed them. The reason we need those figures is because the rate of growth is based on assumptions about current and future behaviour (and presumably regulatory framework etc)

At present productivity in the US is nearly 30% higher than in the UK. Italy and France are nearly 10% higher. The rate of growth based on projections ignores the fact that there is no inherent reason for the different base line: that is a matter affected by investment and expected returns as well as levels of economic activity: complicated business. But clearly if productivity can rise to the level in the US or Italy (and I see no intrinsic reason why it should not) then the assertion that productivity cannot meet the rising need is neither proven nor plausible.

Demographic shifts are cause for celebration rather than a financial problem--just as long as incompatible practices like fixed retirement ages and universal entitlements are allowed to shift with them. Even demographic optimists agree with this (links go to UNDESA, IMF and OECD). I have not seen any non-handwavy analysis that suggests public pension provision does not need to change.

Link does not address any of the points I have made: it does discuss the age profile of the population: but it does not relate it to other types of dependency (again, unless I have missed it). PSR is not particularly useful by itself for reasons given: it is an example of handwaving in this context: figures for the world or even for "developed" economies do not speak to any of the issues raised above
 
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For me it is certainly a public good
I don't see why, since there are many millennia of accumulated evidence showing that people will bear children despite the positive spillover you mention ("which benefits us all"). So I disagree there is any neccessity for distribution from the childless to the child-rearing. Thus, yes I am only focused on income percentiles. And universal benefit doesn't redistribute along that axis.

You also have to factor in the comparative costs of administering a universal benefit against those of a means tested system: universal is cheaper.
True, but that's why the current government's policy is not to means test it, but to use tax bands (which results in some unfair quirks that have been mentioned, and acknowleged as "imperfect", but nonetheless probably pareto-optimal)

There are arguments to be had about which should be universal (if any) and why: education grants is a good and topical example. But the fact that they have been dealt with in one way says nothing about the principle of universality for CB:
You mentioned some supposedly general principle of universality. I point out that it has been steadily eroded since 1950; we are not on some unique precipice now.

Indeed: that is why it is a morally destitute policy, IMO.
Withdrawing universal benefit from high income folks? Only if you think hitting the well-off is morally destitute. Or maybe hitting anyone with a child is morally destitute. I disagree with the second for reasons given. The first strikes me as a rather confuddled position to adopt.


That is a beautiful false dichotomy you have there: seldom seen a finer example :)
Well there is the alternative of much higher taxation I suppose. Somewhat imaginary for the UK though. Which brings us to a pragmatically true dichotomy.

At present productivity in the US is nearly 30% higher than in the UK. Italy and France are nearly 10% higher. The rate of growth based on projections ignores the fact that there is no inherent reason for the different base line: that is a matter affected by investment and expected returns as well as levels of economic activity: complicated business. But clearly if productivity can rise to the level in the US or Italy (and I see no intrinsic reason why it should not) then the assertion that productivity cannot meet the rising need is neither proven nor plausible.
The highlight assumes a fact not in evidence.
 
War Office cuts announced today:

Aircraft carrier Ark Royal to be scrapped earlier.

The two carriers under construction to be completed, but one may be mothballed once built and the other might have no planes to launch for ten years.

Harrier jump-jets to be axed along with the Nimrod spy planes.

RAF Kinloss to be closed; Lossiemouth future uncertain.

Replacement for Trident not to be decided upon until after next election.

Army personnel to number just over 95,000, Navy to 30,000.

Bases in Germany cut.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11574573

ETA: Meanwhile at the BBC, the alleged proposal to fund free TV licences for over-75s from the money brought in by the licence fee instead of from central government will not now take place.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-11572171
 
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So much for the Tories bluster about Labours shabby treatment of the forces. When I got sent to war the first time it was a Tory govt and we had major shortages.
 

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