Titanic tourist sub missing

It's a good point about a separate topic. I guess it still fits in the "SpaceX is bad" bin, but I think we should be able to discuss individual issues individually. It's possible to believe that both "spaceX has a good safety record" and "spaceX has a poor worker safety record". And it's also important to distinguish them. The former is what NASA wants to know, the latter is what a potential new employee at spaceX should want to know.

And trying to bring this back on topic, I don't think I've heard about any injuries to Oceangate workers prior to the Titan implosion. So Oceangate may very well have an excellent worker safety record.

As the CEO, I don't exactly consider Rush a "worker", and his passengers were customers despite the pretense of "mission specialists".
 
The original issue was one of whether or not their rockets had a good safety record. That's a separate issue from whether the process by which their build those rockets is safe..

Yeah, but you know... haters gotta hate.

A post about the risk aversion of SpaceX as regards launches (which are the equivalent in the context of of this debate to Oceangate launching their submersible into the ocean) has to be turned into something else because someone wants to take the opportunity to vent their spleen about Musk and production safety.

This is what the haters always do - they minimize and dismiss successes and achievements in order to focus on their spittle-filled ranting obsessions with hating Elon Musk.

This forum really needs a "We Hate Elon Musk" thread, so all the haters can congregate there in a nice little echo chamber to indulge their obsessions, and stop filling up threads of interesting technical and engineering discussions with their hate. That way, the rest of us can ignore them.

As I have pointed out before, I have plenty to offer this forum with my years of knowledge of in the field of aircraft engineering, aviation and space technology, but I am reluctant to bring up the topic of SpaceX here because it will inevitably attract all the haters out from under their flat stones and bridges to infest the thread with their inane bollocks.
 
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Because Oceangate ended up drowning other people who were not fully informed of the risks involved, the shortcuts taken, the warnings ignored. So they didn't just drown themselves, they drowned other people as well. That's why we should care.


Maybe a pedantic nit-pick (but then that's kinda my thing), but as I understand it none of the 'crew' had time to drown before they became as one with the ocean.

That said, I absolutely agree with your argument.



ETA: i get the Musk comparisons, and that his record with innovative submersibles isn't great, but we already have threads to discuss him,. Unless it transpires the he is/was involved in this particular ********, could we keep it there?
 
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And trying to bring this back on topic, I don't think I've heard about any injuries to Oceangate workers prior to the Titan implosion. So Oceangate may very well have an excellent worker safety record.

As the CEO, I don't exactly consider Rush a "worker", and his passengers were customers despite the pretense of "mission specialists".

Exactly. "Oceangate has an excellent worker safety record, so I feel confident getting into their submersible" would have been a poor decision.
 
Maybe a pedantic nit-pick (but then that's kinda my thing), but as I understand it none of the 'crew' had time to drown before they became as one with the ocean.

True, but “pasting” doesn’t have quite the right rhetorical heft, and could suggest something more mild than the actual event, whereas drowning, though not technically accurate, does convey the fatal nature of the event. Perfect accuracy can be hard to reconcile with brevity, and I erred on the side of brevity this time.
 
Also, anything going underwater and not coming up again is referred to as 'drowned', from people to boats to cities to continents.
 
JEEZUS!!


Every time I read something, or watch a video, or listen to a podcast about this thing, it just gets worse!
Very scary. :( Too many assumptions being made every time they made a change.

(It took me a while to realise the word they kept saying was "hull" rather than "hole".)
 
Every time I read something, or watch a video, or listen to a podcast about this thing, it just gets worse!
Probably because it really is that bad. And Stockton Rush seems to come off worse every time someone else looks at the tragedy.

(It took me a while to realise the word they kept saying was "hull" rather than "hole".)
Me too. I actually watched this the day it came out, but I was doing other things so it was more like background noise. Now that I've rewatched it carefully, I'm chuckling at the "Wait, what?" moments I had earlier when he was pronouncing "hull" so peculiarly.

It is a miracle they went so long without such a tragedy.
Indeed, the "Move fast and break things" strategy really only works when all that can be lost is your own money. Every day I'm more dismayed at how much further this sentiment has leaked into branches of engineering where it distinctly does not belong. If you want to build something to carry humans into a hostile environment, the right answer is still, "Move slowly and double check your work at each step."

If you want to consider the Swiss cheese model of risk management, this video suggests they weren't even looking at the cheese very closely before stacking it up.
 
I believe the captions are generated by speech recognition software in the YouTube infrastructure. If so, I'm not surprise they also got it wrong. And I was not immediately tipped off to it in my first inattentive hearing because the porthole in the end cap also receives some engineering scrutiny. Until I watched it carefully, that's what I thought they were talking about.
 
Which could mean the person writing the captions was having the same problem as others with the pronunciation.
I believe the captions are generated by speech recognition software in the YouTube infrastructure. If so, I'm not surprise they also got it wrong. And I was not immediately tipped off to it in my first inattentive hearing because the porthole in the end cap also receives some engineering scrutiny. Until I watched it carefully, that's what I thought they were talking about.
JayUtah is correct. It is speech-to-text software, so that transcripts and closed captions are automatically generated by AI software. This is often imperfect. Of course, if a person has a weird accent or weird vocal tick like in this case, speech-to-text software will hear the same thing we do, which is that the sound being produced is more like "hole" than "hull". It just writes what it hears. It usually can't infer what is actually intended if it differs from the actual sound being produced.
 
Probably because it really is that bad. And Stockton Rush seems to come off worse every time someone else looks at the tragedy.


Me too. I actually watched this the day it came out, but I was doing other things so it was more like background noise. Now that I've rewatched it carefully, I'm chuckling at the "Wait, what?" moments I had earlier when he was pronouncing "hull" so peculiarly.


Indeed, the "Move fast and break things" strategy really only works when all that can be lost is your own money. Every day I'm more dismayed at how much further this sentiment has leaked into branches of engineering where it distinctly does not belong. If you want to build something to carry humans into a hostile environment, the right answer is still, "Move slowly and double check your work at each step."

If you want to consider the Swiss cheese model of risk management, this video suggests they weren't even looking at the cheese very closely before stacking it up.
I might be inclined to argue that you can still" move fast and break things", in the sense of doing a lot of all up prototyping and test flights, flushing out as many bugs as you can as quickly as possible. But I bet it probably takes time and care to get to root cause of each component failure.

Also it probably requires a lot more money to do all that breaking and analyzing quickly, in the engineering world. The whole point of the maxim is find "good enough" solutions quickly and cheaply.

So maybe it's best left to things like commodity software development, and more simple manufacturing challenges.
 

I have no words!
If your glue turns to dust, you're going to have a bad day. But trying to sensationalize the surface area of the glue layer doesn't really impress me. We've been laying up aerospace structures using epoxy for many decades without issue. The wing spars on a Boeing 777 routinely exceed 500 sq ft of glue area. The shocking fact is not that so much glue was used, but that the engineering process did not include any direct-examination exercise to determine the effectiveness of their layup plan. They simply inferred success from final strain testing.

They ground (by hand) the layers of fibre as they added layers. This surely broke some of the fibres.
It necessarily did. The point was to smooth out imperfections in the fiber layup so that new fiber layers would have a perfectly cylindrical base to adhere to. In theory the layers were glued together and the glue baked to join it all together in one integral hull. But the video shows that this process did not work, and the engineers relied on tests that did not have the capacity to reveal that.

The micrographs in the video did not explicitly connect the failure of the glue layer to adhere to the grind areas. The voids seem fairly evenly distributed.

I might be inclined to argue that you can still" move fast and break things", in the sense of doing a lot of all up prototyping and test flights, flushing out as many bugs as you can as quickly as possible.
I don't disagree. I build a lot of prototypes. But "Move fast and break things" is not about learning more from prototypes than from whiteboard analysis or simulation. It's about a culture that rewards being first to market and can tolerate a high failure rate. The Silicon Valley software model emphasized a minimum viable product (MVP). Whoever got that first enjoyed an essentially winner-take-all payout. And as you conclude, that's acceptable for low-stakes stuff like some software that can tolerate a high failure rate.

But I bet it probably takes time and care to get to root cause of each component failure.

Also it probably requires a lot more money to do all that breaking and analyzing quickly, in the engineering world.
Yes, for engineering but not so much for software. Software cost is just guys sitting at chairs. This is not to make light of the effort and skill involved. It's simply to say that the cost of iteration is considerably lower than building physical prototypes of actual objects. Either way, however, you have to be prepared to sacrifice economy for speed. You're trying to get to market first, or be the first to roll out a viable disruption. There really are few prizes for second place.

The whole point of the maxim is find "good enough" solutions quickly and cheaply.
Exactly. Good enough in consumer or commodity engineering is general a much lower bar than good enough in something that people are going to trust their lives to. Your tolerance for failure in that case has to be much, much higher. That's when the procedure has to be, "Go slow and check each step."

So maybe it's best left to things like commodity software development, and more simple manufacturing challenges.
I would agree. My manufacturing process involve some pretty straightforward steps that we can prototype effectively using 3D printers before we get into injection molding, chem milling, and 5-axis machining. We don't need a lot of whiteboard time, and we do a lot of physical modeling to shake out bugs in the manufacture and assembly. This used to take a whole DFM/DFA cycle that was its own department.

But we also have some epoxy encapsulation processes that we invented. We're putting sensitive instruments into highly hostile environments rife with radiation, chemical contamination, high heat, and the absence of atmospheres. At least half of our engineering effort there is in figuring out ways to test the manufacture to ensure ourselves that our design assumptions are being met. These involve x-ray and ultrasound methods. But we also just sacrifice a few units to saw apart and verify the epoxy layup.
 

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