Titanic tourist sub missing

[The Man]

As far as I can make out, they didn't even use any kind of checklist before or during a dive.

A simple and key aspect in aviation, heck, we even use checklists for routine maintenance and test operations (Automated Material Handling Systems). They help to ensure the proper things are done in the proper order and nothing gets overlooked. Even before the checklists and the work we have pre-task planning to examine risks and hazards and how to mitigate or deal with potential issues.

 

[smartcooky]

Jeff Ostoff addresses the veracity of the transcript



He also goes on to discuss NDT and the manufacture of composite hulls and vessels

(Video is about 10 minutes long)
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[Puppycow]

NM, ninja'd

 

[Puppycow]

Jeff Ostoff addresses the veracity of the transcript
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At this point, I think it is more likely to be true than not.

Checkmite had a good point a few pages back that there hadn't been many positive reasons to believe it was genuine, but now I feel like if had been fake someone would have come out and said so.

It's still not proven, but it's strange to me that nobody official has said anything about it.

 

[smartcooky]

At this point, I think it is more likely to be true than not.

Checkmite had a good point a few pages back that there hadn't been many positive reasons to believe it was genuine, but now I feel like if had been fake someone would have come out and said so.

It's still not proven, but it's strange to me that nobody official has said anything about it.

I tend to agree with what Ostoff said..about it, in that if it really is a fake, its a very good one.

 

[SpuriusMaximus]

On the other hand, if it were real, it would by now be all over CNN, MSNBC, BBC, etc. I mean, I know it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but we've seen every news channel all over even unsupported rumours from Ukraine. Or more on the topic, we've seen the major news outlets give time to even what someone said they told Rush in 2018 and nobody was around to verify it. This leak would be HUGE.

So that's the more relevant question: why isn't it all over those? Why isn't anyone debunking some minor YT channel that they've probably never even heard about (I know I hadn't before they suddenly had that leak) is somewhat less interesting.

Edit: I mean, I can give you a very good and parsimonious alternative to why they aren't out there debunking every rumour. Because they're facing some massive lawsuits, possibly even of the criminal kind. First degree reckless homicide is a felony, not just a civil case, and can carry a penalty up to 60 years in prison in the US. (As usual, depending on the exact state and circumstances.) And any lawyer worth his salt probably told them to Shut The Hell Up and not talk to the press, in case they end up incriminating themselves.

 

[smartcooky]

On the other hand, if it were real, it would by now be all over CNN, MSNBC, BBC, etc. I mean, I know it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but we've seen every news channel all over even unsupported rumours from Ukraine. Or more on the topic, we've seen the major news outlets give time to even what someone said they told Rush in 2018 and nobody was around to verify it. This leak would be HUGE.

So that's the more relevant question: why isn't it all over those? Why isn't anyone debunking some minor YT channel that they've probably never even heard about (I know I hadn't before they suddenly had that leak) is somewhat less interesting.

Perhaps. But reputable outlets - you know, actual news organizations like CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, WAPO, NYT, BBC, Reuters etc almost always do fact-checking before going to air or print with stuff. They usually require al least two independent first-hand sources for the same information before they publish. They generally will not publish if that fact check does not positively confirm as true. Sometimes, they do publish in the case of information is found to be indeterminate, but they will always make that fact known with an announcement to that effect, and they will always retract if it later becomes clear that it was false. This is unlike Faux News, Newsmax and other fake news organizations who usually say nothing when they turn out to be wrong.

Snopes originally assessed it as "Unverified" however they are now rating it as "False"...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/titan-sub-transcript/

...so I'll go with that in the absence of further informations

Edit: I mean, I can give you a very good and parsimonious alternative to why they aren't out there debunking every rumour. Because they're facing some massive lawsuits, possibly even of the criminal kind. First degree reckless homicide is a felony, not just a civil case, and can carry a penalty up to 60 years in prison in the US. (As usual, depending on the exact state and circumstances.) And any lawyer worth his salt probably told them to Shut The Hell Up and not talk to the press, in case they end up incriminating themselves.

Who are they going to sue? The only realistic target of such a lawsuit is now pink paste and dissolves into the ocean. Most of the key people who complained about safety were fired.

 

[SpuriusMaximus]

Well, that's why I was saying "by now". I can understand that they wouldn't publish it immediately, but it's been a couple of days. Surely they had the time to check it by now.

Edit: as for who's at risk, well, everyone involved, really, in case it turns out they were accomplices in the reckless homicide. And even if they weren't, as I said, any lawyer worth his or her salt would tell them to Shut The Hell Up. Better be safe than end up saying something extremely stupid, ya know?

 

[smartcooky]

Well, that's why I was saying "by now". I can understand that they wouldn't publish it immediately, but it's been a couple of days. Surely they had the time to check it by now.

Edit: as for who's at risk, well, everyone involved, really, in case it turns out they were accomplices in the reckless homicide. And even if they weren't, as I said, any lawyer worth his or her salt would tell them to Shut The Hell Up. Better be safe than end up saying something extremely stupid, ya know?

True, but I get the distinct impression that Rush was "The Boss" and he ran that company with an iron fist.. it was his way or the highway. Anyone who criticized him, questioned his decisions or brought up safety issues was fired. It's going to be difficult to justify a negligence lawsuit against people who did their best under such circumstances.

 

[SpuriusMaximus]

Probably, but as I was saying, any lawyer will prefer to err on the safe side. Don't underestimate the ability of people to say something extremely stupid

 

[Checkmite]

Snopes originally assessed it as "Unverified" however they are now rating it as "False"...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/titan-sub-transcript/

...so I'll go with that in the absence of further informations

While as mentioned no really positive reason to suspect the transcript was authentic has been given yet, the fact as mentioned in the Snopes article that someone who was familiar Titan's sub/surface text communications has said that the supposed transcript's formatting and conventions aren't consistent with his experience, is a positive reason to doubt that the transcript is real.

It's not definitive, I would say; but it's one check in the "Against" column, versus nothing in the "For" column to date.

 

[MRC_Hans]

True, but I get the distinct impression that Rush was "The Boss" and he ran that company with an iron fist.. it was his way or the highway. Anyone who criticized him, questioned his decisions or brought up safety issues was fired. It's going to be difficult to justify a negligence lawsuit against people who did their best under such circumstances.

Well, not a lawyer, don't even know what jurisdiction this is in, but I don't think "I was just following orders" is a very valid defence anywhere. However, I can see a plethora of potential criminal and civil cases coming from this.

I mean, I have worked as a quality assurance engineer in the medical business, and I could very well get in trouble cutting corners, even if my boss had told me to. Especially if the action had actually caused casualties.

Hans

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Well, not a lawyer, don't even know what jurisdiction this is in, but I don't think "I was just following orders" is a very valid defence anywhere. However, I can see a plethora of potential criminal and civil cases coming from this.

I mean, I have worked as a quality assurance engineer in the medical business, and I could very well get in trouble cutting corners, even if my boss had told me to. Especially if the action had actually caused casualties.
Hans

I presume that to have the designation of Professional Engineer one must take an oath. The one for Canadian Engineers starts:

I, ____________, in the presence of these my betters and
my equals in my calling, bind myself upon my honour and
cold iron, that, to the best of my knowledge and power, I
will not henceforward suffer or pass, or be privy to the
passing of, bad workmanship or faulty material in aught
that concerns my works before mankind as an engineer,
or in my dealings with my own soul before my Maker.

If there were any real PEs involved in the design or manufacture of the Titan, they, too, may be in trouble.

 

[shemp]

Probably, but as I was saying, any lawyer will prefer to err on the safe side. Don't underestimate the ability of people to say something extremely stupid

Like Donald Trump's minions.

Also, people are probably still under contract (with non-disclosure agreements) to OceanGate and still getting paid. I'm sure that once that ends, we'll see some of them cashing in with books.

And I agree with Snopes. The transcript doesn't pass the smell test. Too wordy and chatty.

 

[Puppycow]

Snopes originally assessed it as "Unverified" however they are now rating it as "False"...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/titan-sub-transcript/

...so I'll go with that in the absence of further informations

Ah, hadn't seen the update. Although their reason is that they updated it based on their communication with David Pogue, and some of his reasons seem less than surefire. "Too much chitchat"? But that was at the beginning of the ride before anyone knew that something was wrong. OTOH, it always seemed strange to me that this originally was reported by some Pakistani Tiktoker.

On the lawsuits thing, I understand that anyone connected with OceanGate would stay mum, but what about the investigators, US or Canadian, or the Coast Guard? I keep wondering why reporters don't ask those people.

 

[jeremyp]

Who are they going to sue? The only realistic target of such a lawsuit is now pink paste and dissolves into the ocean. Most of the key people who complained about safety were fired.

they can sue the company. Not that it has anything much left in the way of assets to pay for damages.

 

[SpuriusMaximus]

Sorta. There is the intra-corporate conspiracy doctrine, which at least MIGHT shield you from a conspiracy charge... but whether it'll be actually applied... is basically a toss. There are so many caveats and "if"s and "but"s, that you really don't want to bet your future on it. And in any case being guilty of first degree reckless homicide is bad enough even if they don't slap a conspiracy charge on top of it.

But basically, yes, any lawyer worth his or her salt will tell you to batten down the hatches, button down, and Shut The Hell Up, because anything you say CAN and WILL be used against you. Any dumb stuff you tell the press can end up being something you need to defend against.

Usual disclaimer: this is not legal advice. If you plan to be an accomplice to breaking the law and shoot your mouth off at the press, please consult with your local lawyers' guild first.

 

[smartcooky]

Ah, hadn't seen the update. Although their reason is that they updated it based on their communication with David Pogue, and some of his reasons seem less than surefire. "Too much chitchat"? But that was at the beginning of the ride before anyone knew that something was wrong. OTOH, it always seemed strange to me that this originally was reported by some Pakistani Tiktoker.

On the lawsuits thing, I understand that anyone connected with OceanGate would stay mum, but what about the investigators, US or Canadian, or the Coast Guard? I keep wondering why reporters don't ask those people.

One of the debunking claims said that communications between the support ship and the sub was done using three letter codes, with no excess wording due to bandwidth limitations. This claim is clearly wrong, as evidenced by this screenshot from an earlier dive...

Fake debunk of a fake transcript?

Of course, its entirely possible that the actual transmissions and receptions are three letter codes, and some software translates the code into plain English (somewhat analogous to the way Baudot-Murray Code us used in teleprinter communications). ‎In any case, the above photo shows a dialog box that looks like its part of one of Sonardyne's pieces of dive tracking software. If it is, that is an off-the-shelf product.
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[grmcdorman]

The data entry panel at the bottom of that screen to me implies simple letter codes, though, from a set of four (K, A, Y, N) so I'd suspect it's what you suggested: the system has some set of canned messages you select by keying in a short code. It may not even be multiple letters; a yes/no response is likely just Y or N.

Edited to add: Legal Eagle posted today a video on the legal issues around possibly suing the company:

 

[jeremyp]

One of the debunking claims said that communications between the support ship and the sub was done using three letter codes, with no excess wording due to bandwidth limitations. This claim is clearly wrong, as evidenced by this screenshot from an earlier dive...

Equally, the photo does not appear to show the kind of chit chat in the transcript.

[qimg]https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7x9o6fiav5vwd3wqbv26z/TitanScreen.jpg?rlkey=lvfy3fqyo6g37oqx6w4omj0d7&raw=1[/qimg]

Fake debunk of a fake transcript?

Of course, its entirely possible that the actual transmissions and receptions are three letter codes, and some software translates the code into plain English (somewhat analogous to the way Baudot-Murray Code us used in teleprinter communications). ‎In any case, the above photo shows a dialog box that looks like its part of one of Sonardyne's pieces of dive tracking software. If it is, that is an off-the-shelf product.
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I think it's a racing certainty that off the shelf software's being used. If you think it looks like a certain piece of software, it almost certainly is.

I'm leaning towards fake at the moment. Aside from David Pogue's comments, none of the mainstream media seems to have picked it up, not even the more sensationalist end like the Daily Fail. Nobody official involved in the investigation has even acknowledged its existence. This suggests to me that there is nothing to pick up.