Time stamped prediction

[Michael Redman]

If nothing happens? Who cares! The claim was not that something would happen, the claim was that " . . .something like an attack is being planned . . ." Hard to miss on that prediction. It's not falsifiable.

 

[Drooper]

Luci,

You are a one trick pony.


Anybody reading this thread can do a news search on Google for the word "attack" and select any single day. The number of hits will always rank in the thousands. That is thousands of hits per day.


Given that so many things happeb every day, what would REALLY impress me(and others I suspect), is if you were able to tell us that we would be able to find no reference to any "attack" on February 14, or any other day for that matter..

 

[ceptimus]

The worst 'attack' of the year - the one that is mentioned in future, 'reviews of 2004' might happen on February 14th. There is a roughly 1 in 366 chance of that happening, so if it does it will add some credibility to Luci.

(This assumes, of course, that Luci does not help to plan, or carry out the attack).

 

[Thanz]

I don't think that I am as jaded as some of the people here, or perhaps I am just not as jaded about Lucianarchy, but I think that Lucianarchy needs a chance for further explanation before being roasted on the fire here.

So, Lucianarchy, are you able to provide any other details on the attack other than the date? Something on a degree of magnitude perhaps, a more specific location, a possible weapon, country, terrorist organization, victims? Anything of that sort?

If not, your prediction (while interesting) is not of much practical value, is it? I don't know if an admonishment to be "extra vigilant" is of much use here. If I worked at the WTC, no amount of extra vigilance would have helped me without specifics of what might happen.

 

[SquishyDave]

I am totally with Thanz on this one. We should see if Luci has any more details, if not, we can continue this rant.

However if s/he has enough details to make this falsifiable, then we wait, and if neccessary we can be all mean and I-told-you-so after the 14th of Feb.

 

[Ed]

We should see if Luci has any more details, if not, we can continue this rant.

I am going to save you some time.

Sit down, make yourself comfortable.

Now, with palms facing away from you slowly wave your hands about one foot from your face. Got it? Good.

Do this for about 30 seconds. At the end of that time say "What?"

Repeat. Now, for about 9/10 of the repetitions DO NOT wave your hands in front of your face, just sit there and at the end of some period (up to you) say "What?"

You have now had a dialog with Luci.

This can be repeated for a variety of issues and claims.

For example, let us contend that one has a way of beating the UK lottery.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

Or, let us contend that people can really, really see when blindfolded.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

Let us contend that Schwartz is a really, really good researcher.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

This works for ANYTHING and has the advantage that you don't have to worry about time zones, you can do it anywhere .. at home, at work, when at the dentist (this last gives the best flavor for the real thing).

You don't have to thank me, just enjoy.

 

[juninho]

OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

Hmmm, I reckon it'll probably be in Chicago and I'm getting the initials A.C.

Oh damn, I'm 75 years too late.

Go away troll.

 

[Barkhorn1x]

OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

OK -- I --- feel something like an attack right now. Oh wait - it was just gas.

Which is about what your "feeling" adds up to.

I am not going to re-iterate what others have said. I will comment that;

1. W/o the date in there, your statement would be SO vague as to be UTTERLY ridiculous. With the date you still have too much wriggle room in terms of the definition of "attack".
2. Do you even realize that if this is all you have then your "power" is WORTHLESS!!!!!!!!!!! The world is a mighty big place and your plea for vigilance is just dumb in light of the fact that you can't supply the who what & where of your "feeling". Even your When is not too helpful.
3. You may be playing a joke here. Please tell us that you are playing a joke.

Barkhorn.

 

[SquishyDave]

I am going to save you some time.....

OK Ed, you guys have been dealing with Luci longer than me, I thought they might like a chance to clarify, but maybe not. I perhaps naively thought that if we got a falsifiable statement from Luci, Luci might think twice when her "prediction" turned out to be ◊◊◊◊◊ (probably). I know, I know, no need to point out the horrific flaws in my plan, but I am still a new skeptic, so I have some wide eyed optimism left.

 

[Ed]

OK Ed, you guys have been dealing with Luci longer than me, I thought they might like a chance to clarify, but maybe not. I perhaps naively thought that if we got a falsifiable statement from Luci, Luci might think twice when her "prediction" turned out to be ◊◊◊◊◊ (probably). I know, I know, no need to point out the horrific flaws in my plan, but I am still a new skeptic, so I have some wide eyed optimism left.

It's not the horrific flaws in your plan so much as it is the horrific ramifications of trying to engage lucy in debate. It does not happen. You have a kid? No matter, you can imagine. It is like a debate with a kid. Why? No. Why? No. etc.

Try it for yourself. I suggest a pint or two first

Incidentially, no matter what happens, Luci will declare victory. Psironic, isn't it?

 

[jimmygun]

I got it! I got it!..........A BIG MAC ATTACK!!!!!!!! What do I win?

Over one billion served!

No? Heart attack? Shark attack? When animals attack? Nick nack patti whack attack? A tiskit attack sit? A casket attack? An attack of the blues? What? Throw me a bone here people!

 

[thaiboxerken]

You know, Luci isn't going to get anymore specific with his "prediction" I'm sure. But, he will still point to this thread as "absolute proof" that he has superpowers on that day. Yes, somewhere, someone or something will be attacked on that day.. like everyday.. and he will claimed to have predicted it.

Nevermind the fact that we've all pointed out how stupid of a prediction Luci gave. When one is as insane as Luci, the facts don't bother them.

 

[Ratman_tf]

You know, Luci isn't going to get anymore specific with his "prediction" I'm sure. But, he will still point to this thread as "absolute proof" that he has superpowers on that day. Yes, somewhere, someone or something will be attacked on that day.. like everyday.. and he will claimed to have predicted it.

Nevermind the fact that we've all pointed out how stupid of a prediction Luci gave. When one is as insane as Luci, the facts don't bother them.

Pretty much. I just wanted to give Lucianarchy a chance to make good.
If no further details are forthcoming, we can write this one off as a non-predicion, just like Ladybrook.

 

[Schizobunny]

I am still waiting for a prediction of the lottery numbers... (I could use some extra money)

Here you go. 36-29-1-5-15-10.

Note: You can not put any blame on me for being wrong.

 

[Hannibal]

What you must try and remember is that Luci will not debate or clarify - ever. It will not believ anything that does not fit with It's view of the world. It will insinuate, accuse and do anything to avoid debate or answer questions. Recently Luci accused me of not being a Police officer in another thread. i did not respond because there was no need - the thread was old and the debate buried ages ago - and Luci lost.

I predict that a view barbed replies fro Luci will come in relation to this and we will have no clarification of the prediction. Furthermore It will never answer any questions on the "Larsen List" nor the challenge about Geller being a fraud and Luci stating that all his tricks can be done by an amateur.

I also predict that I am going to have a cup of decaf coffee in about 3 minutes.....

Bahala Na!

 

[nick]

Okay, we can count out Iraq, unless we put a minimum number of casualties, say 100, anything less is nothing of note. Do you agree Luci?

Before you complain about all deaths being of note, I mean it is not of note in regards to your prediction.

He'd be wise not to agree to a minimum of 100. I was surprised to read in "Beyond Fear" by Bruce Schneier (excellent, btw) that the number of terrorist attacks (this, excluding acts by combatants in wartime that targeted civilians, eg Coventry, Dresden, Hiroshima) that killed 100 or more people, in the last 100 years, has been: about 20. It's a good pop quiz question - most people will guess far higher. (He lists every one, too, so if you know of others you can add them.) 9./11 is obviously the biggest, then a couple of hijackings or bombings of big planes, but there's only 4 or 5 above 200 as I recall.

Now, back to Luci's suggestion, maybe we can propose, as I'm sure Randi would, a reasonable protocol here (albeit without the million bucks).

How about:
- "Attack" must take place 14th February 2004, 0000-2359 UTC (that's GMT for most purposes)
- Event must make #1 headline on CNN International edition for at least 6 consecutive hours (if Larry King Live is scheduled, it must be cancelled, or Larry's guest replaced with someone responding to the "attack")
- At least 20 people killed, or 10,000 square feet of buildings destroyed, or 100 people taken hostage, or 1 aircraft with capacity for over 40 persons hijacked,
- Attack not to take place in Iraq, Israel, or Palestinian occupied territories

To measure the odds of that happening, I suggest we imagine what odds we would want in order to stake $10 on it happening (assuming we let down our barriers of good taste and dececy in order to do so). I'd want, oh, say, 100 to 1.

In fact maybe Luci can pop down to his local branch of William Hill with the above specification (or whatever else we might negotiate here) and ask what odds they would give him ? Clue, Luci: if you just want to say "an attack will take place on 2004-02-14" they won't take your money. Bookmakers make great skeptics. That way, if Luci is right, not only has he proved that he's a [bit of a] psychic, he'll also have made a few pennies.

 

[Ed]

Here you go. 36-29-1-5-15-10.

Note: You can not put any blame on me for being wrong.

At some time, and somewhere you will be right. It's Psironic.

 

[Ed]

- , or 1 aircraft with capacity for over 40 persons hijacked,
.

I'd say a regularly scheduled flight in the first world with jet equipment.

Otherwise luci might swipe a cropduster to make a point.

Would you really pay off for a "hijack" in Senegal of an Air Mombasa Biplane that represents 75% of their seating capacity?

I think not

 

[Lucianarchy]

 

[lofgoernost]

Thanks for the clarification, Lucian.