Threatening Petroeuro?

[Oliver]

In defense of danielk, he has a point. While I find the discussion about the effects of the dollar and the euro interesting, the fact that you disguise the discussion as another "what caused the Iraq war" thread to be woo and borderline deserving of being in the CT forum.

Could you confirm that my assumption is correct so far (See the last posts from me)?

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo. After that, I will ask to move it there - even if the folks there will just ignore Economical Issues and send it back to politics. Shall we bet?

 

[danielk]

Your "Forscherdrang [Eng?]" for a skeptics-forum is astounding.

"Forscherdrang" can be translated as "scientific curiosity" according to LEO.

I'm interested in this issue. It's a political issue. It's a perfect topic for skeptics.

Just skip the topic if it's not interesting for you.

Oliver, that's not the point. The topic is interesting to me, too. But what's more interesting to me, as an armchair psychologist, is the question why you so desperately cling to completely unproven and vague assumptions about various subjects. My guess, which is substantiated by the evidence of your behavior on this forum, is that you behave that way in order to be able to maintain your image of a evil and sinister morally inferior USA (compared to Europe). To me, it appears that you're looking for gaps to squeeze your ideology in.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Reported.

I checked the list of sub forums, and the Nut-Job-Subforum does not seem to exist. Oliver once again has missed out on some facts, eh? Beerina seems to have scored a "gotcha" without using recipes, nor kitten pictures.

In defense of danielk, he has a point. While I find the discussion about the effects of the dollar and the euro interesting, the fact that you disguise the discussion as another "what caused the Iraq war" thread to be woo and borderline deserving of being in the CT forum.

Indeed, and perhaps even deserving of existence on said Nut-Job Subforum: but I am being redundant, of course.

DR

 

[Tailgater]

Could you confirm that my assumption is correct so far (See the last posts from me)?

Could you quote your assumption. I don't know what you are saying.

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo. After that, I will ask to move it there - even if the folks there will just ignore Economical Issues and send it back to politics. Shall we bet?

You want me to prove a CT rumor is woo?

From what I've read so far, it would take a lot more than stomping on one country changing to euro to have a significant effect on the dollar. As with most CTs, we have to see what happens from here to know for sure. Your OP, as with many, is a two part question.

Are there US interests in keeping the dollar in Iraq? yes

Enough to go to war? I don't think so unless we see them invading every other country that changes.

Is saying the reason the US invaded Iraq was to keep the dollar there a CT? Completely. Although it might be considered a bonus.

 

[Oliver]

Are you stuttering, Darth?

Anyway: I asked before - Do you know something about economics, Petro Dollars, Dollars and other woo?

 

[Oliver]

Could you quote your assumption. I don't know what you are saying.

You want me to prove a CT rumor is woo?

From what I've read so far, it would take a lot more than stomping on one country changing to euro to have a significant effect on the dollar. As with most CTs, we have to see what happens from here to know for sure. Your OP, as with many, is a two part question.

Are there US interests in keeping the dollar in Iraq? yes

Enough to go to war? I don't think so unless we see them invading every other country that changes.

Is saying the reason the US invaded Iraq was to keep the dollar there a CT? Completely. Although it might be considered a bonus.

I'm sure that an inflation is a threat for an economy. But I don't know if China dumping it's Dollar-Reserves would lead to a Dollar-Crash.

Would it?

The assumption was:

It isn't 1:1. That's the problem and the reason why the Dollar lost 90% of it's value since the sixties. And I don't know if the problem is the same in other countries. The exclusivity of the Dollar is that while it is the most used currency for in- and export - and every Nation who wants to buy Oil, also needs lots amounts of Dollars, the US has to print new money to fill the Dollar-needs of these countries.

Now printing the new money doesn't produce any equivalent for the new money and so the Dollar value itself is falling. And this means that while the US is exporting with it's own Dollars and importing using Dollars that lost a small amount of it's value, they are actually able to import more for "one Dollar" than they "have to export" for "one Dollar".

At least this is how I understood this issue so far.

 

[danielk]

Do you know something about economics, Petro Dollars, Dollars and other woo?

That is not the woo.

But it's a very interesting Issue - and who knows: Maybe it was a major reason to invade.

That is the woo.

 

[Oliver]

That is not the woo.

That is the woo.

I came to this forum for one reason: "Loose Change, second Edition".
Because I believed it could be true.

Now guess what - I don't believe in anything in it anymore, not one scintilla. Thanks to logic and JREF.

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes [*] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

 

[Tailgater]

I'm sure that an inflation is a threat for an economy. But I don't know if China dumping it's Dollar-Reserves would lead to a Dollar-Crash.

Would it?

The assumption was:

China dumping dollars would be like a suicide bomber IMO. I've heard alot of Americans say China is going to destroy the economy by doing this and I have a hard time buying it. Unless China finds someone who consumes as many exports as the US to fill the void, they would not do such a thing unless they were simply determined to wreck themselves.


As far as the assumption, It's not that simple and I would rather read up on it or pass it to someone who can better answer due to dwindling time constraints.

 

[Tailgater]

And concerning the Woo-Factor. You unfortunately have to proof that it's woo.

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes [*] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

Which one are we supposed to prove?

 

[danielk]

Now stop tweaking my nose and derailing the thread with your believes *] unless you can proof that it isn't woo.

No Oliver. When it comes to establishing a link between a possible economic incentive and going to war, the burden of proof is upon you.

 

[Oliver]

China dumping dollars would be like a suicide bomber IMO. I've heard alot of Americans say China is going to destroy the economy by doing this and I have a hard time buying it. Unless China finds someone who consumes as many exports as the US to fill the void, they would not do such a thing unless they were simply determined to wreck themselves.

As far as the assumption, It's not that simple and I would rather read up on it or pass it to someone who can better answer due to dwindling time constraints.

If I remember correctly from the articles I've read, China is already switching to Yen and Euro and therefore reducing their Dollar-Stock. This is also the case concerning the Oil trade with Iran.

Now if Iran doesn't support the Dollar anymore in the future - and China is also gaining from this change. Isn't it China who poses a threat? I mean it looks like they are getting the Worlds next Superpower with their current rate of economical increase.

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I know - I'm playing a little bit of Chess here - but that's how the Global Powers play in their struggle to keep their stronghold over others.

 

[Tailgater]

If I remember correctly from the articles I've read, China is already switching to Yen and Euro and therefore reducing their Dollar-Stock. This is also the case concerning the Oil trade with Iran.

Now if Iran doesn't support the Dollar anymore in the future - and China is also gaining from this change. Isn't it China who poses a threat? I mean it looks like they are getting the Worlds next Superpower with their current rate of economical increase.

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I know - I'm playing a little bit of Chess here - but that's how the Global Powers play in their struggle to keep their stronghold over others.

I don't know about China switching. If you could post these articles, it would help. Whatever China does, It does not benefit them to hurt the currency of a huge trade partner. If they are unloading the dollar reserves, I would think they would do so with great care.

 

[Tailgater]

Which leads me to the question: What would be the outcome if the US would stop the trade of Oil between Iran and China?

I'm not sure how this could be done without openly going to war with China, which is really stretching this theory of protecting the dollar with the US military.

 

[Oliver]

I don't know about China switching. If you could post these articles, it would help. Whatever China does, It does not benefit them to hurt the currency of a huge trade partner. If they are unloading the dollar reserves, I would think they would do so with great care.

There are many articles about this issue:
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&q=china+dollar+petroeuro&btnG=Google+Search

Here's an excerpt from one I picked randomly (AsiaTimes):

Attack on the US dollar

One of the pillars propping up US superpower status and worldwide economic dominance is the dollar being accepted as the predominant reserve currency. Central banks of various countries have to stock up dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil requirements and other major commodities in US dollars.

This US economic strength, however, is a double-edged sword and can turn out to be America's economic Achilles' heel. A run of the US dollar, for instance, which would cause a dollar free-fall, can bring the entire US economy toppling down. What is frightening for the US is the fact that China, Russia and Iran possess the power to cause a run on the US dollar and force its collapse.

China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves in the world, accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and expected to exceed a trillion dollars by the end of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision by China to shift a major portion of its reserve to the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to be left behind holding a bagfull of dollars rapidly turning worthless. The herd psychology would be very difficult to control in this case because national economic survival would be at stake.

Source:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HJ19Ad01.html

Now if this doesn't sound like a threat - then I don't know what would.

 

[Oliver]

I'm not sure how this could be done without openly going to war with China, which is really stretching this theory of protecting the dollar with the US military.

The US or China could invade Iran to stop the Oil-Flow towards the global opponent. But I don't know the results of such an invasion. I also don't know if the Oil-Flow changed in Iraq - meaning that the Oil was "adjusted" towards "friendly" nations.

 

[Tailgater]

There are many articles about this issue:
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&q=china+dollar+petroeuro&btnG=Google+Search

Here's an excerpt from one I picked randomly (AsiaTimes):




Now if this doesn't sound like a threat - then I don't know what would.

http://www.starmass.com/en/china_export_countries.htm

Take a look at the top countries China exports to. They could kill the dollar, but would they want to?

 

[Grammatron]

Stop kidding. It's a widespread thesis and it isn't debunked.

Sure, if you ignore every fact presented in this thread it's completely not debunked.

You don't understand economics, it's ok, it's not for everyone.

 

[Oliver]

http://www.starmass.com/en/china_export_countries.htm

Take a look at the top countries China exports to. They could kill the dollar, but would they want to?

Who says that China wouldn't want to be the worlds superpower? And who says that Russia and Iran wouldn't prefer China or themselves [Russia] in Terms of the Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.

That's unpredictable for outsiders unless you're following the signs of such global strategies.

I will keep searching for the current Status of the Chinese Dollar-Stock. The article I've read was on a German News-Page.

And concerning your article: I know that the Export is also a big Issue and I have no Idea if a Nation would risk this Branch. After all - it's a big hurdle for such a decision.

@Grammatron: Read on. We left this behind already.

 

[Tailgater]

The US or China could invade Iran to stop the Oil-Flow towards the global opponent. But I don't know the results of such an invasion. I also don't know if the Oil-Flow changed in Iraq - meaning that the Oil was "adjusted" towards "friendly" nations.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

Those are 2004 stats, but I can't see them being too far off other than China and India moving up in consumption.

I think it would hurt everyone to mess with the flow at all. Oil is affected globally, not just who one country gives too. Germany and Japan look to be the top 2 consumers without being able to produce their own oil. If an "oil war" truly broke out, production and reserves of each country would come in to play.

Wow, are we heading down a long derail or what?