There go the Europeans again

geni said:
So? Saudi Arabia really does not like bin larden very much remeber objective is to get rid of the ruling family there (the catch is what he wants to replace it with).

I keep hearing this claim, but I see no real evidence that he actually wants to overthrow them, rather than just change their behavior. There are literally thousands of members of the royal family. Not a single one has ever been targeted by terrorists. Maybe he's not quite the threat to them that the crown prince likes to pretend he is.

And this differes from the current situation how?

Boy, you really haven't been paying attention, have you. Afghanistan has had nation-wide elections, and is moving towards democracy. The warlords are being sidelined by a moderate, pro-western government which has the support of the populace. And Afghan troops continue to work with us to root out Taliban and Al Quaeda remnants. The general level of violence is far less in Afghanistan now than it was under the Taliban, even before our invasion. They have no strongholds left in Afghanistan. That's how the current situation is different.

Evidence? It wouldn't be easy (it doesn't help that afganistan is slightly landlocked) but given time there are a number of european countries that would be quite caperble of carrying out a sucessful invasion (assuming those stinger missiles are time expired if not we are definetly looking at a US style play the locals off against each other operation.)

They have no equivalent of the JDAM, one of the most important pieces of military hardware used in Afghanistan and a key part of our success. They have very little spy satellite capabilites (also a key ingredient for an air war) or military communications satellites to run their operations. They couldn't run an air campaign on their own even next door in Yugoslavia, why would they be any more capable thousands of miles further away? And they had to rely on Russian military transport to get the few troops they DO have in Afghanistan into theater. Why do you think the European military provided so much less relief work in the wake of the recent tsunami? Unlike Iraq, that was certainly not something their public had a hard time supporting. Rather, they simply don't have anywhere near our capability to move equipment and supplies around the world.
 
geni said:
The counter example is Iran. Ironic really the one country in the middle east that is moving towards demorcay and it has to be one of the most dangerious

Depends what you mean by moving towards democracy. The people certainly want democracy, and despise the mullahs. But the actual political situation has not moved towards democracy at all. Elections are still a farce, with only pre-approved candidates allowed to run. And even those who win elections are still impotent, with the unelected Guardian Council able (and willing) to stop any attempts at reform. Advocates of reform are still routinely arrested, tortured, and killed. The mullahs have managed to hang on, despite the popular desire for democracy, precisely because of oil. Which was my point. So I'm not sure how you arrived at the delusion that Iran was somehow a counterexample.
 

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