Newton would find your assertion that there is motion toward the observer in all frames quite fascinating, I suspect. You don't know what a frame is, and apparently never will, because it would be impossible to utter such an inane statement if you did.
(1) The belt observer will see it ( motion w.r.t to the balloon), unless you think that the balloon becomes invisible when released.
(2) The balloon observer will see if for the same reason. (otion w.r.t to the belt observer)
(This must be true, if for no other reason than the air is common to belt and balloon)
The treadmill observer can see both the balloon and the observer, so he will see that motion as relative motion between observer and balloon, giving the same result as in (1) and (2). It is not necessary to define the motion as
towards the observer, but that the (relative) difference is smaller or larger. The "windspeed" observer must see it, because the motion must be relative to the air. Seems solid to me.
Heavens no, you've got our rapt attention now. Please expound for us on how you can keep an inert, untethered, heavier-than-air object aloft indefinitely in a horizontal wind.
Tunny
Aren't gliders heavier than air?
It does not have to be indefinitely, but longer than the treadmill. I think that should be no problem. Even air-filled party balloons can stay aloft in the wind.
You are right of course, a heavier than air balloon will fall to the ground in still air, which is why it does so on the treadmill, but the real wind is a continuous source of energy that can provide lift, and the force to drive the balloon along with it, whereas treadmill "wind" is only energetic when powered by belt, and that stops once the string is released.
A test using a device that relied solely on aerodynamic lift would show an even greater difference, I suspect.
Earlier, I had been assured that all wind-borne objects would reach windspeed, but now it is doubted that even a balloon will stay aloft, at any speed.