• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cont: The Trump Presidency VIII

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Don said:
I wish I shared your optimism. I firmly believe that unless there are exceptional circumstances like an economic crash, Donald Trump being arrested or an amazing and inspirational Democratic Party candidate being found that the President has a better than even chance of being re-elected - if he chooses to stand.

I say this because although he "only" has 40% support, that 40% are highly motivated to go out and vote for him and his racist policies.
Click to expand...
The way I see it...
- Trump's margin of victory the last time was razor-thin. In the next election he has little room to lose votes and still win
- He's not likely to win any new supporters. Anyone racist enough to support Trump NOW probably was eager to vote for him last time
- Although his support is firm (and he has a strong grip on the republican party), there are probably going to be a few people who voted for him who have had second thoughts. (Coal miners who find that no, he's not bringing jobs back, blue collar workers who now worry about their health care, etc.) Those people will be in the minority, but with such a narrow victory it may be enough
- Clinton probably would have been a good president, but she had been attacked constantly by the republicans and Fox News for decades. I doubt that anyone the democrats can nominate will have anywhere near the problems that she did. Plus, people who had been complacent in the election (especially former Obama voters) may realize "Maybe I should vote"

They're also the 40% least likely to have their vote lost by gerrymandering and/or voter suppression.
Click to expand...
Gerrymandering and voter suppression are big problems. But, they were problems in the last election too, so the problem probably won't get that much worse in the next election or 2.

I therefore think that the GOP will likely have the Presidency until (at least) 2024 and will retain control of both House and Senate for most, if not all, of that period.
Click to expand...
I figure the democrats will take the house next election. Probably not the senate though, because of what senate seats are up for grabs. (More democratic seats than republican seats.)
 
Trump Tweets

"Wow! Big Trump Hater Congressman Joe Crowley, who many expected was going to take Nancy Pelosi’s place, just LOST his primary election. In other words, he’s out! That is a big one that nobody saw happening. Perhaps he should have been nicer, and more respectful, to his President!"

"The Democrats are in Turmoil! Open Borders and unchecked Crime a certain way to lose elections. Republicans are for Strong Borders, NO Crime! A BIG NIGHT!"
 
Last edited:
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Republican tax law starting to negatively impact Churches
Click to expand...

“What we’re talking about is an income tax on the church for providing parking to its employees — that’s what we’re talking about,” said Mike Batts, chairman of the board of the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability, which is circulating the petition denouncing the tax. “It's absurd."

<snip by me>

Treasury is now working on regulations spelling out the details of how the tax will work, though the groups are supposed to have already been paying the tax. It took effect Jan. 1 and nonprofits are supposed to pay it quarterly.

A host of groups, including the Boys & Girls Clubs of America, Goodwill Industries, the YMCA and the National Council of Nonprofits are demanding the tax at least be delayed, saying it is unfair to ask them to be paying a levy they don’t understand.
Click to expand...

...Wow.

Just wow.

Yet another example of how well the Republicans are actually taking care of their "base" and so very competently, too!
 
Aridas said:
...Wow.

Just wow.

Yet another example of how well the Republicans are actually taking care of their "base" and so very competently, too!
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter, it will be spun to be the Democratic Party's fault and the GOP faithful will swallow it hook, line and sinker.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

"Wow! Big Trump Hater Congressman Joe Crowley, who many expected was going to take Nancy Pelosi’s place, just LOST his primary election. In other words, he’s out! That is a big one that nobody saw happening. Perhaps he should have been nicer, and more respectful, to his President!"
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm sure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won because Joe Crowley said mean things about Trump, rather than because she ran on the platform that for someone to represent the working class people of New York they ought to live there, not be corrupt, and understand and advocate for working class people.
 
The Don: I wish I shared your optimism. I firmly believe that unless there are exceptional circumstances like an economic crash, Donald Trump being arrested or an amazing and inspirational Democratic Party candidate being found that the President has a better than even chance of being re-elected - if he chooses to stand.

I say this because although he "only" has 40% support, that 40% are highly motivated to go out and vote for him and his racist policies. They're also the 40% least likely to have their vote lost by gerrymandering and/or voter suppression. OTOH a significant proportion of the 45%+ who may be thinking of voting for the other candidate need to be inspired to get out and vote and/or risk losing their vote due to the aforementioned gerrymandering and/or voter suppression.

I therefore think that the GOP will likely have the Presidency until (at least) 2024 and will retain control of both House and Senate for most, if not all, of that period. Those elder judges aren't going to last for ever and so a 6:3 or 7:2 GOP-leaning SCOTUS is very much on the cards. They will make the laws for a generation so look for states to get to choose on matters such as:

Legality of abortion
Teaching evolution
Gay rights
"Separate but equal" treatment of the races
The role of religion in lawmaking


This will allow the majority of the US landmass (though a minority of the population) to slip back to the 1950's where they're clearly more comfortable. Indeed, it may be like an antebellum US where progress is made in the integrated, forward looking states and the backward looking segregationist states talk about things like charm and matters whilst sucking hard on the teat of the government handout machine.
Click to expand...

Yes. Damn it, you are right, but it is much worse: Trump-analogs and demagogues will sweep into power across Europe shortly. Russia and China are dictatorships, both increasingly aggressive. The loss in prestige of democracy and the rule of law is now at a disastrous level.

World war is guaranteed. Folks may have thought I was a bit wild with all those "trouser drop" comments after the Brexit vote and Trump's election. But here we are, with the second hand now ticking on the doomsday clock.

Humanity's final motto: All for coin, naught for integrity.
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Yes. Damn it, you are right, but it is much worse: Trump-analogs and demagogues will sweep into power across Europe shortly. Russia and China are dictatorships, both increasingly aggressive. The loss in prestige of democracy and the rule of law is now at a disastrous level.
Click to expand...

I see it largely confined to the US. There may be some countries with a bit of "form" for that kind of thing who will elect a similar government but in the main IMO Europe will stick with boring old Social Democracy in one form or another.

Hlafordlaes said:
World war is guaranteed. Folks may have thought I was a bit wild with all those "trouser drop" comments after the Brexit vote and Trump's election. But here we are, with the second hand now ticking on the doomsday clock.

Humanity's final motto: All for coin, naught for integrity.
Click to expand...

I disagree - but maybe I'm being over-optimistic :(

Unless the "war" in question is waged economically rather than militarily in which case, President Trump has already had his Fort Sumpter moment IMO.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Yes, I'm sure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won because Joe Crowley said mean things about Trump, rather than because she ran on the platform that for someone to represent the working class people of New York they ought to live there, not be corrupt, and understand and advocate for working class people.
Click to expand...

Here's Ocasio-Cortez's platform:

DgqWsjSWAAU7NiO.jpg:large


I guess the bit about supporting Trump was on page 2.
 
You can hardly slide a piece of paper between what she is fighting for and Trump is fighting for!
 
Matthew Best said:
Back in November 2017 she was working as a bartender.

In November 2018 she will probably be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.
Click to expand...

Maybe the Democratic Party is getting its act together at the grass roots. A young, exciting candidate with (for the US) radical, yet not dangerous, policy proposals. Maybe this will signal that younger people will be taking on the mantle of leadership and the existing leaders will gradually be moved to roles where their experience can be drawn upon but their hands are not on the reins.
 
The Don said:
Maybe the Democratic Party is getting its act together at the grass roots. A young, exciting candidate with (for the US) radical, yet not dangerous, policy proposals. Maybe this will signal that younger people will be taking on the mantle of leadership and the existing leaders will gradually be moved to roles where their experience can be drawn upon but their hands are not on the reins.
Click to expand...

Those normal (to Europeans) proposals will be spun by the Murdochians as the gateway to anarchy. Seriously,... just picture Tucker Carlson reading her campaign pitch with that smarmy little sneer on his lips.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom