The Trump Presidency 15

[Stacyhs]

I care which one is more likely to be true based on data. Common sense in the absence of data to justify it is nothing to me.

ETA: and I'm not sure why it is acceptable to other skeptics.

How would data on this even be gathered as most rapes go unreported?

In the absence of data, common sense and logic is what is left. Use it.

 

[Paul2]

How would data on this even be gathered as most rapes go unreported?

In the absence of data, common sense and logic is what is left. Use it.

In Bayesian terms, you're talking about background knowledge. We don't have data that people tell others privately about a false event and then wait decades to reveal the event publicly, but we do have data that people will not reveal a traumatic event like a rape publicly, but only privately, at the time. We also know that people may reveal publicly events that they once kept private.

This background knowledge only confirms things probabilistically, but then we often have to work probabilistically anyway.

Are we done with this?

 

[BobTheCoward]

In Bayesian terms, you're talking about background knowledge. We don't have data that people tell others privately about a false event and then wait decades to reveal the event publicly, but we do have data that people will not reveal a traumatic event like a rape publicly, but only privately, at the time. We also know that people may reveal publicly events that they once kept private.

This background knowledge only confirms things probabilistically, but then we often have to work probabilistically anyway.

Are we done with this?

Where is that data?

 

[ponderingturtle]

I don't know if stats exist. Anecdotally, though, GOP operatives seem happy to say that women not telling anyone at the time is evidence that they're lying now. This at least forestalls that argument.

Which is why they need to do some real bridge building with the catholic church after they get slandered by Pennsylvania and the like. I mean it is as bad as believing some guy was abusing the olympic gymnastic team for decades, that is simply not credible.

 

[plague311]

Stunned disbelief, denial, minimization. People react to bad things in different ways.

Yes, laughing is a common reaction to a traumatic event:

I have absolutely no doubts that both of you are correct. I made a bit of a reference to that in the post.

I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?

Basis of the thesis? I prefer my word salad with more carrots personally.

Again, there doesn't need to be evidence for it. If you don't want to believe it, I'm going to throw a couple of options out there for you. You can a) not believe it or b) don't believe it or c) choose to believe it or d) decide you don't care, and plenty of shades in between all of those. (Yes, I know a and be are the same. I just wanted Bob to have multiple options to say the same thing.)

You either believe this is evidence, or you don't. There's nothing beyond that, and that's why it's obnoxious to ask.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I have absolutely no doubts that both of you are correct. I made a bit of a reference to that in the post.



Basis of the thesis? I prefer my word salad with more carrots personally.

Again, there doesn't need to be evidence for it. If you don't want to believe it, I'm going to throw a couple of options out there for you. You can a) not believe it or b) don't believe it or c) choose to believe it or d) decide you don't care, and plenty of shades in between all of those. (Yes, I know a and be are the same. I just wanted Bob to have multiple options to say the same thing.)

You either believe this is evidence, or you don't. There's nothing beyond that, and that's why it's obnoxious to ask.

I have no preference on whether to believe it or not. To believe this is evidence, we should have a reasonable basis to believe it is evidence.

 

[Segnosaur]

So, Trump is in a twitter feud with Soccer player Megan Rapinoe, after she initially knelt during the national anthem during previous games (but now just refuses to put her hand over her heart) in protest over minority oppression. She has also said that she will not visit the white house if invited.

Trump has gone on the offensive, calling her unpatriotic, etc.
However, Trump accidentally referenced the wrong Megan, referring to Megan Rapino (no 'e'), i.e the wrong person.

Rapino certainly knew how to handle it with her own Twitter responses:
"And she was right to say so, cry me a river"
"Plus this isn’t even her account."
"Mom come pick me up old men are attacking me"

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/wrong-...claps-back-old-men-are-attacking-me-1.4484887

 

[Stacyhs]

I have no preference on whether to believe it or not. To believe this is evidence, we should have a reasonable basis to believe it is evidence.

Common sense and logic form a reasonable basis when data is missing.

'Reasonable' synonyms: logical, rational, sensible.

'Common sense' synonyms: sensibleness, reason.

'Logical' synonyms: reasoned, sensible.

 

[Stacyhs]

Trump tweet:

Megan should never disrespect our country, the White House, or our flag, especially since so much has been done for her and the team.

You mean like calling the White House a "dump" and humping the flag like it's a bitch in heat?

 

[BobTheCoward]

Common sense and logic form a reasonable basis when data is missing.

.

No, they don't.

 

[Paul2]

Where is that data?

Sorry, BTC, I think I will respectfully decline your invitation to discuss that further. Maybe someone else would like to?

 

[Stacyhs]

Sorry, BTC, I think I will respectfully decline your invitation to discuss that further. Maybe someone else would like to?

I'm with you. A person can only take so much of being Bobbed and I've reached my limit.

 

[Darat]

It's been barely two years.

But it feels so much longer!

 

[varwoche]

Well maybe people didn't realize it was going to turn into such a **** show.

Even before the 2016 election, it was abundantly clear -- as clear as newly made glass, as clear as a summer day, crystal clear -- that it would be a **** show and then some.

 

[Lurch]

Hell I don't even follow Trump's tweets I'm surprised so many others here do LOL

Why read Trump's own words and risk perceiving the nuttery in evidence? Better to get Fox's sanitized coverage.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Why read Trump's own words and risk perceiving the nuttery in evidence? Better to get Fox's sanitized coverage.

They will make fascinating historical documents in the future.

 

[Stacyhs]

They will make fascinating historical documents in the future.

Or a game show.

Did Pres. Donald J. Trump Really Tweet That?

Play the exciting new game where contestants try to determine which tweet was actually written by the former president or a monkey playing with a keyboard, a 10 yr. old boy, or an inmate at an insane asylum! Available online or as a board game. Rated for Mature Audiences only.

 

[Segnosaur]

And just in case you didn't think Trump has increase the deficit enough, or given enough benefits to the wealthy....

From: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...tion-and-bypassing-congress-report-2019-06-27
The White House is considering a plan to index capital gains to inflation -- and do so in a way that bypasses Congress...Such a move would likely draw legal challenges over whether it has such authority. The top 1% would receive 86% of the benefit from such a move...and would cost $102 billion over a decade.

So we have a potential plan that 1) helps the rich, 2) takes away power from congress, and 3) increases the debt even more.

 

[plague311]

Or a game show.

Did Pres. Donald J. Trump Really Tweet That?

Play the exciting new game where contestants try to determine which tweet was actually written by the former president or a monkey playing with a keyboard, a 10 yr. old boy, or an inmate at an insane asylum! Available online or as a board game. Rated for Mature Audiences only.

John Oliver did something pretty close to that. He actually just pressed the word that came up on the middle section of an iphone for next word guesses.

 

[Minoosh]

Those comments will have zero impact on President Trump’s support because (1) most of his supporters are unaware that he said them, (2) most of the rest don’t care, (3) many of them think “she’s not my type” is a relevant and appropriate argument in establishing one’s defense in a rape accusation, and (4) they believe an exit strategy is unnecessary because we would, in President Trump’s words, obliterate them.

OK: I'm not going to say your wrong, because I don't know. But here is my thinking: If a pollster asks a Trump voter right now if they (still) support the president, they're going to say yes. They're not going to back down. But I'm not sure all of them necessarily want Trump as president. In the voting booth they'll be alone with their thoughts.

People do tend to draw the line somewhere as evidenced by Roy Moore's defeat. And right now he's not doing so well. There was a backlash.

I have only anecdotal evidence to go on but I'm thinking of my brother who has a daughter in her 20s. He still trolls me on any topic he considers liberal but I notice he doesn't explicitly support Trump these days. I just have a hunch Trump voters may quietly be changing their minds about him.

I live in a state that had an insanely "conservative" (actual radical) legislature. They kept getting re-elected. Yet voters statewide supported a Democratic governor by a wide margin. My theory is people like the lawmakers stirring up **** but they also wanted a check on their power.

It helps that my bro is not an evangelical Christian with an end-times mindset.