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The True Threat of ISIS

How big a threat to the world is ISIS

  • Second only to Climate Change

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    158
Actually, the destabilization of the region is where the West comes in. Do you not think that the policies of regime change by violent overthrowing has led to the destablization of the region?

I want to say yes... and it probably is, at least in the short term. It is for sure in the short term... and most likely in the long term.

If so, what stabilization policies are you advocating?

That's a very tricky question. I don't know. So I guess, when you don't know you should advocate nothing until you do know. But maybe I'll never know and the prospect of nothing is a terrifying option.

If it is military, I can't see the west committing to what it needs to do. It would be expensive, involve lots of causalities, lots of money and would be generational. That's very loosely a full measure response.


I have seen none here, only a call for bombing and when you listen to the Western leaders you will hear that they plan not only to bomb but also to continue an official policy of regime change for Syria and Iran. I think that those kinds of policies make ISIS-like groups more, not less, likely.

Yes.

And to top it off, you will very soon see retaliatory Shia death squads perpetrating the very same kinds of atrocities on Sunnis that ISIS have visited on Syrian troops, Shia Iraqis and Lebanese and pretty much anyone else who gets in their way.


Yes.
 
In 1968 the Muslim population in France was 1.6%. Now it is somewhere between 7 and 12% (I got different answers looking). Do you think that number will simply go down?

I can see it going either way. I can see it going up to 30 or 40% in 80 years... Or I can see it stagnating... or I could see a great secular awakening and dropping.

A group like ISIS does not help the situation.

Funny you picked 1968, a year well before the current trends of migration began, How about 1999? An estimated 4.2 million Muslims in France. 2011, a study estimated that the number was 4.7 million, a change of just half a million in 11 years. At the same time France's population has grown by 6 million, so a difference of 5.5 non-Muslims to every 1 Muslim.
 
In 1968 the Muslim population in France was 1.6%. Now it is somewhere between 7 and 12% (I got different answers looking). Do you think that number will simply go down?

I can see it going either way. I can see it going up to 30 or 40% in 80 years... Or I can see it stagnating... or I could see a great secular awakening and dropping.

A group like ISIS does not help the situation.

A lot of European countries had waves of immigration from their colonies and ex-colonies around that time that you cite. Thus France has a large immigrant population from Algeria and Senegal and places like that, while the UK has large immigrant populations from India, Pakistan, the West Indies, Nigeria and Hong Kong/Canton. But there is no reason for thinking that large numbers of Islamic State citizens will migrate to the EU, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand in the future nor any good reason for saying they would be welcome if they tried.

However, one thing that could lead to a greater influx of immigration is the overthrowing of regimes, which a lot of Western policy seems to continue to have a taste for. The flood of refugees from Libya (not all of them Libyans, however) is surely one of the results of the "revolution" there - another 100 hundred are missing and presumably drowned as of yesterday. The Libyan government of Freedom and Democracy or whatever it is supposed to be is powerless to stop the flow of immigration through its borders because the last I heard they were confined to a Greek car ferry off Tobruk and the rest of the country was under de facto Islamist control.
 
I have to say that the irony of you using criminals committing small crimes before big as your analogy is rather funny. The fact of the matter is that when criminals start out small, they are still breaking the law. Another irony is that many of those that start out small then end up in the system, and through that become worse criminals, they get training and advise while in prison and come out unable to get a job, no support and are let loose to use the only new skills they had in prison, so yeah bearing real consequences of their offending works really well, in fact virtually every study on how to deal with them says that putting people into the prison system for minor offending doesn't stop reoffending.
Who said anything about sending them to jail. I said real consequences. Why does everyone always jump to the conclusion that "consequences" = "the slammer"? How about home detention with a curfew and enforced with electronic monitoring. Make them work for the families they have impacted upon, make them work for the community they have disrespected; not "made-up" work, real, actual work that they can look at and say "I helped make this". Teach them values and responsibility to the wider community.

Your solution is to start criminalizing people for their beliefs and words,
STOP THIS!!!!! Why do you insist on twisting, extremifying and awfulizing what I have said. Its not about criminalising people for their beliefs its about criminalising them for the ultimate in antisocial behaviour; killing, and inciting and encouraging others to kill. Why is it that after I have told you several times in this and other threads that you are bastardising my words, that you continue to do so, and flatly refuse to stop?

Thought becomes crime.
No it doesn't, inciting others to kill does.

How long after that does it become a crime to express anti-Government thought?
Never, so long as it does not include threats, incitement or encouragement to kill/assassinate.

How long before we turn into the new Hong Kong, have AOS raiding the next Internet/Mana rally where they are chanting F* John Key?
AGAIN NO!!! You can say F* John Key all you like. That should never be a crime, but say, and courage or incite to KILL John Key, THAT is what ought not be protected by free speech. People simply should not be free to ask "Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?"

That is the road your solution leads too, that's the real threat of groups like ISIS, that they scare the sheep so much that the politicians can pass draconian laws to the cheer of the crowds.
You will continue to believe that as long as you continue to wilfully misunderstand and intentionally misrepresent what I have said. Not much I can do about that!

And that is what you want to do. There are already laws against funding and being a member of a terrorist group. We don't need more tyrannical laws undermining our freedoms to say and think as we please. Your fear and paranoia would have us all come under the yoke of oppression from our own governments and security forces. You are so willing to convict and imprison people for nothing but words and thoughts that in the end only those that followed the strict government line would be left. You worry that ISIS is as dangerous as the Axis powers, and yet want to hand over that very power to governments to weld, the power to lock up people who oppose them and speak out against them. What a wonderful world that would be, 1930's Germany and Italy all over again.
Again, you are arguing against and argument that I am not making.

Once and for all, so get this between your ears:

My argument is NOT with Muslims, or Jews, or Christians or Tamils or people of any other religion. My argument is with people who would kill, and/or incite others to kill and/or encourage others to kill, regardless of whether they justify it with their religion or not.

People should NOT, IMO be entitled to Free Speech protection under those circumstances.

And that will be my final word in this thread. It is blindingly obvious to me that we are absolute light-years apart in out attitudes to the terrorist threat.
 
STOP THIS!!!!! Why do you insist on twisting, extremifying and awfulizing what I have said. Its not about criminalising people for their beliefs its about criminalising them for the ultimate in antisocial behaviour; killing, and inciting and encouraging others to kill. Why is it that after I have told you several times in this and other threads that you are bastardising my words, that you continue to do so, and flatly refuse to stop?

You're advocating making murder illegal? And incitement to murder illegal?

Hey, I don't want to sound like I am missing your point here, but you do know that these things are already illegal, don't you?
 
STOP THIS!!!!! Why do you insist on twisting, extremifying and awfulizing what I have said. Its not about criminalising people for their beliefs its about criminalising them for the ultimate in antisocial behaviour; killing, and inciting and encouraging others to kill. Why is it that after I have told you several times in this and other threads that you are bastardising my words, that you continue to do so, and flatly refuse to stop?

No it doesn't, inciting others to kill does.

Never, so long as it does not include threats, incitement or encouragement to kill/assassinate.

You do realise that murder and incitement to murder and incitement to violence are already crimes in New Zealand under the 1961 Crimes Act?

If you don't want to change these laws to include more things, then what do you want that is any different to what we already have?
 
So, first you set up the scary scenario:

What ISIL has is sympathisers all over the world in far greater numbers that Germany ever had. They also have their nationals living and working among us. Our world has become so cosmopolitan, that terrorists are almost able to hide in plain sight, and operate with impunity. ISIL sympathisers donate huge amounts of money, over US$6m per day (US$2.2bn p.a.). Worse yet, they also have people who are willing to wage a terrorist war in their country of residence against the people of that country. Just because ISIL has not raised an army of millions in the Middle East, and invaded all the countries around them, does not mean we should make the mistake of underestimating what they are capable of. It took just nineteen Islamic Terrorists to kill over 3000 people in America and shut down New York for a long time. Just four bombers shut down the London transportation system for a few days. These were low cost operations with minimal material requirements. You can finance an awful lot of these type of operations for 6 millions bucks a day!!

While ISIL is very unlikely to destroy our way of life, or take over the western world, they can nonetheless make life very difficult for us. Anyone who does not believe that is burying their head in the sand.

And you make it clear that you see ISIS more clearly than your dummy opponents. Then you come up with a few ideas when asked to give your proposals, but they include this unusual one:

Then start at home
4. Reduce the opportunities for recruitment of terrorists domestically by silencing radical imams. Why do we allow these people to spread their bile? Would the Allies have allowed Nazis to openly extol the virtues of Naziism, and openly recruit participants for the SS in London or New York during WW2? Of course not. In fact, the one person who did do it, William Joyce (a.k.a. Lord Haw Haw) was prosecuted after WW2 and executed for high treason.

Okay, "silencing imams" and "spread[ing] their bile". These are proposals, but they are vague. What is being proposed that is not already a law?

1st Amendment Freedom of speech is not absolute; people are not free to shout "fire" in a crowded building. Incitement to violence is not protected by the 1st amendment and most countries have "Hate Speech" laws including ours (Section 131)

Okay, but you seem to be unclear about what the limits of free speech are supposed to be and are now almost conceding that whatever limits you have in mind are already in place. These don't sound like proposals any more but rather urging to carry on as we were.


But, don't let me stop you from keeping your head buried firmly in the sand while you are pretending it isn't happening and hoping it will all go away by itself. Perhaps you could stand for office at the next election? Just change your name to Neville Chamberlain, and you'd be a shoe-in for a Labour candidacy somewhere (yes I know Chamberlain was a Tory, he just acted like a leftie!!).

You can say "Peace in our time!" while the rest of us will just have to be that much more vigilant.

Except that's what the Chamberlainistas would do, and you are a Churchillian with gruff no-nonsense "fight them on the beaches" attitude and don't want any lefty limp-wristery....

The price of liberty is eternal vigilance

Grrrrr!

...and yet the whole time you seem to be backpedalling and then eventually you end up calling for the criminalization of murder!

My argument is NOT with Muslims, or Jews, or Christians or Tamils or people of any other religion. My argument is with people who would kill, and/or incite others to kill and/or encourage others to kill, regardless of whether they justify it with their religion or not.

People should NOT, IMO be entitled to Free Speech protection under those circumstances.

And that will be my final word in this thread. It is blindingly obvious to me that we are absolute light-years apart in out attitudes to the terrorist threat.

Okay, you are against murder. And that's final!
 
Phantom Wolf, New Zealand isn't representative of much of anything. It's small and far from anywhere else. In some ways, that allows your society to try somethings others can't, more or less a modern form of as much splendid isolationism as you wish to try out.

Your argument fails on the grounds of having in nothing in common with those nations Caper cites as at risk.

@ angrysoba:
However, one thing that could lead to a greater influx of immigration is the overthrowing of regimes, which a lot of Western policy seems to continue to have a taste for.
All in the name of a principle. The positive initial reaction to this "Arab Spring" was a symptom of perhaps an unrealistic grasp of the full impact of such a movement.
 
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My vote was a "betting man" take. I think analyses of their great risk play into the same audacity of hope they are proclaiming. For a group born from the infighting and shifting of insurgent terrorist groups, proclaiming a caliphate is quite incredible.

I know nothing about military affairs, but you asked for my opinion :p .
 
Phantom Wolf, New Zealand isn't representative of much of anything. It's small and far from anywhere else. In some ways, that allows your society to try somethings others can't, more or less a modern form of as much splendid isolationism as you wish to try out.

Your argument fails on the grounds of having in nothing in common with those nations Caper cites as at risk.

Except that even when you look at a country like France where Islam is the second largest religion and many would claim that they have a "Muslim problem", the non-Muslim population is still growing at a rate over 5 times that of the Muslim population. They aren't in danger of being over whelmed by Muslims any time soon.
 
Except that even when you look at a country like France where Islam is the second largest religion and many would claim that they have a "Muslim problem", the non-Muslim population is still growing at a rate over 5 times that of the Muslim population. They aren't in danger of being over whelmed by Muslims any time soon.
Your argument still fails, on the grounds stated, however your position that in the near term the risks are low won't get any disagreement from me. But not everyone is as short sighted as you, or I, and many people look at things in terms of generations. One of the things I admired about some of the Japanese and Italians I met was their ability to adapt the long term view without too much mental effort. I don't find that capacity as common in the people I interact with around here.

Maybe their perspectives (those who look at bit further down the time line), are worth your trying to understand. You don't have to agree, or even adopt their PoV, but I don't think you are giving it any consideration.
 
Your argument still fails, on the grounds stated, however your position that in the near term the risks are low won't get any disagreement from me. But not everyone is as short sighted as you, or I, and many people look at things in terms of generations. One of the things I admired about some of the Japanese and Italians I met was their ability to adapt the long term view without too much mental effort. I don't find that capacity as common in the people I interact with around here.

Maybe their perspectives (those who look at bit further down the time line), are worth your trying to understand. You don't have to agree, or even adopt their PoV, but I don't think you are giving it any consideration.

I've looked at projections down the timeline, it tells me that as Muslims integrate into Western Society their family sizes drop to at or below Western Normal, that those that moderate their faith, or drop it altogether are around the similar number of non-Muslim Westerners and so on. The picture shows that Muslim growth in the Western world is not out of control and won't be in the future, barring a major change in circumstances that causes tens of millions of people to simply vanish.

Let's look at the numbers. The UK has a little over 64 million people in it. 1.6 Million are Muslim. That means that 62.4 Million aren't.

The projected population of the UK in 2100 is 75.6 Million.

Now let's go with Casper's 28% figure, no, lets double it, that's 56%, so in 2100 56% of Muslims wants the UK to be Islamic. To get their way they'd have to have at least 30% of the vote, which assuming a similar distribution of voters in Muslim and Non-Muslim results in a population of 40.5 million Muslims in the UK in 2100.

So for this to happen, the Non-Muslim population would have to almost half, down to 35.1 million, and the Muslim population would have to explode to a whooping 2506% of its present level (and in fact outnumber the non-Muslims by 5 million anyway.)

You might think this a possible scenario, I think given the current trends, and any trends one can realistically think of, it's beyond extremely unlikely.
 
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[...]
4. Reduce the opportunities for recruitment of terrorists domestically by silencing radical imams. Why do we allow these people to spread their bile? Would the Allies have allowed Nazis to openly extol the virtues of Naziism, and openly recruit participants for the SS in London or New York during WW2? Of course not. In fact, the one person who did do it, William Joyce (a.k.a. Lord Haw Haw) was prosecuted after WW2 and executed for high treason.

Would and did, well up until about the time the US entered the war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American_Bund

and inevitably
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_Un-American_Activities_Committee
 

I stated it did not happen

1. in London during WW2 (and it didn't)
2. in New York during WW2 (and it didn't from an American standpoint)

The Bund became all but defunct in November 1941 when its leader, Gerhard Kunze fled to Mexico to avoid prosecution over draft issues; America was not at war until the following month.

Therefore, I stand by my post,and the facts of history support it.

Your argument still fails, on the grounds stated, however your position that in the near term the risks are low won't get any disagreement from me. But not everyone is as short sighted as you, or I, and many people look at things in terms of generations. One of the things I admired about some of the Japanese and Italians I met was their ability to adapt the long term view without too much mental effort. I don't find that capacity as common in the people I interact with around here.

Maybe their perspectives (those who look at bit further down the time line), are worth your trying to understand. You don't have to agree, or even adopt their PoV, but I don't think you are giving it any consideration.

100%. I don't want there to be any chance of my children or grandchildren having to grow up in an extremist Islamic state with all the resulting barbaric practices toward dissenters (especially women) that it implies. If people think having a few freedom of speech rights curtailed is bad, try living in a country where women are brutalised for wanting to have an education, where atheists are summarily executed, and where the pursuit of religion is only allowed if you are of the "official" religion, with practitioners of all other religions persecuted and their symbols houses and of worship razed or demolished. To those people who think ISIL is no threat, at least not in the way that Nazi Germany was, have a think about this.

The Nazis pursued what they saw as an idealistic crusade to set up an exclusivist world based on their Aryan "master race", using racial hatred of Jews to achieve their goal. ISIL is pursing a similar goal, a jihad to set up an all-encompassing Islamic State based on their own extremist variety of Islam, using religious hatred to achieve that end. In their world view, only practitioners of their unique, fanatical version of Islam have the right to exist. All others ( and that includes Shia Muslims) must either convert or die. Just like the Nazis, ISIL have demonstrated time and again that they are utterly ruthless in the pursuit of their ideal, and again like the Nazis before them, they have no hesitation whatsoever in slaughtering anyone who they deem to be in their way, or who does not fit into their world view. They are utterly merciless in dealing with their enemies, or anyone else who has no place in their new order. They are also threatening Jews with a new Holocaust.

Hitler was not taken seriously until it was too late to stop him. The rest of the world seriously underestimated just how far he was prepared to go to get what he wanted. The clues were always there; anyone who read Mein Kampf would have understood this, but unfortunately, those who did tagged him a madman, not be be taken seriously.... well, at least they got the first part right!

However, Hitler was cunning enough to start small while thinking big. He managed to achieve much of what he wanted by moving forward slowly and steadily in "baby steps" so that he didn't get the attention of his opponents, and always assuring potential enemies that he had achieved what he wanted and would stop now. When Hitler came to power in 1933 he did little in the way of advancement that would have got much public attention outside of Germany for three years until sending troops into Rhineland in 1936. Two further years passed before he annexed Austria (with his BS story that it was what the Austrians wanted). After this, he felt confident that he was becoming unstoppable; and proceeded into Czechoslovakia later in the same year, taking western Sudetenland under the same pretence he used for the annexing of Austria; that this is what it's ethnic Germans wanted. Britain agreed to allow this when Hitler persuaded them that he was advancing no further (thanks for that Neville). Now that he was past the mountains, he just went straight for Prague., and Poland was next.

The whole point if this ramble is to point out that people who have peace and tranquillity uppermost in their minds are often blind to the threat to their way of life until it is too late to do anything about it. Hitler could have been stopped in his tracks in 1920 when he had few supporters and meager resources. He might even have been stopped with more difficulty just before he came to dictatorial power in 1933. By 1939, Germany was too strong, and it was too late.

Now I freely admit that there are a lot of differences between them, but I believe that the similarities are to obvious and too frightening to ignore. WW2 was 20 years in the making. ISIL might not be a threat now or even in the short term future, but if they are tolerated, not opposed, and continually made concessions to, they WILL grow stronger and by the time they do become a clear and present threat, it may be too late to do anything about them without the investment of a colossal amount of resources, and a massive loss of life.

I find it interesting that nearly 20% of the voters on this poll (1 in 5) think that ISIL are "A pretty big threat to all of us and our way of life". Its interesting because I am surprised that as many as that have the vision to see them for what they are. I only hope the western world don't wait until its too late before they see what the 1 in 5 do!
 
However, Hitler was cunning enough to start small while thinking big. He managed to achieve much of what he wanted by moving forward slowly and steadily in "baby steps" so that he didn't get the attention of his opponents, and always assuring potential enemies that he had achieved what he wanted and would stop now. When Hitler came to power in 1933 he did little in the way of advancement that would have got much public attention outside of Germany for three years until sending troops into Rhineland in 1936. Two further years passed before he annexed Austria (with his BS story that it was what the Austrians wanted). After this, he felt confident that he was becoming unstoppable; and proceeded into Czechoslovakia later in the same year, taking western Sudetenland under the same pretence he used for the annexing of Austria; that this is what it's ethnic Germans wanted. Britain agreed to allow this when Hitler persuaded them that he was advancing no further (thanks for that Neville). Now that he was past the mountains, he just went straight for Prague., and Poland was next.

This is pretty simplistic. In fact, plenty of Austrians and Sudeten Germans did want to be part of Hitler's Germany. That's a sad fact.

And during the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia, Poland took a large bite out of Slovakia.

And while you say, "thanks for that Neville", Chamberlain was never in any position to stop the Nazis rolling in, and even after the war, it appears that Churchill of all people was not able to liberate Czechoslovakia or Poland.



The whole point if this ramble is to point out that people who have peace and tranquillity uppermost in their minds are often blind to the threat to their way of life until it is too late to do anything about it.

Really? Who is blind to what ISIS is doing in Iraq and Syria?

Hitler could have been stopped in his tracks in 1920 when he had few supporters and meager resources. He might even have been stopped with more difficulty just before he came to dictatorial power in 1933. By 1939, Germany was too strong, and it was too late.

Now I freely admit that there are a lot of differences between them, but I believe that the similarities are to obvious and too frightening to ignore. WW2 was 20 years in the making. ISIL might not be a threat now or even in the short term future, but if they are tolerated, not opposed, and continually made concessions to, they WILL grow stronger and by the time they do become a clear and present threat, it may be too late to do anything about them without the investment of a colossal amount of resources, and a massive loss of life.

I find it interesting that nearly 20% of the voters on this poll (1 in 5) think that ISIL are "A pretty big threat to all of us and our way of life". Its interesting because I am surprised that as many as that have the vision to see them for what they are. I only hope the western world don't wait until its too late before they see what the 1 in 5 do!

Why don't you precisely spell out how ISIS can take over the West if you are so clairvoyant?
 
This is pretty simplistic. In fact, plenty of Austrians and Sudeten Germans did want to be part of Hitler's Germany. That's a sad fact.
I made it simplistic so that unsophisticated people could better understand it.

Its also a sad fact that many didn't want to become part of Germany. In many cases, it was the gas chambers for them!

And while you say, "thanks for that Neville", Chamberlain was never in any position to stop the Nazis rolling in,
He could at least have made the effort rather than waviing the white handkerchief piece of paper.

and even after the war, it appears that Churchill of all people was not able to liberate Czechoslovakia or Poland.
A far different kettle of fish.The two situations are not the same

Really? Who is blind to what ISIS is doing in Iraq and Syria?

Oooh. nice strawman there pal. That isn't what I said...

".....blind to the threat to their way of life...."

Why don't you precisely spell out how ISIS can take over the West if you are so clairvoyant?

I would if I could. I don't know exactly how in detail. but then, nor did anyone in 1920 (of any consequence) predict the rise of Nazi Germany over the next 20 years.

It happened nonetheless!!
 
I made it simplistic so that unsophisticated people could better understand it.[/I]

You mean you lied.

I find it interesting that nearly 20% of the voters on this poll (1 in 5) think that ISIL are "A pretty big threat to all of us and our way of life". Its interesting because I am surprised that as many as that have the vision to see them for what they are. I only hope the western world don't wait until its too late before they see what the 1 in 5 do!

So you have a vision and yet you cannot tell us what will happen.
 
A far different kettle of fish.The two situations are not the same

This is the most intelligent thing you have written on this thread, and yet you continue to pretend to be Winston Churchill and to castigate anyone who doesn't share your bleary "vision" as Chamberlains.

Oh, and you want to drop massive bombs on the Middle East but you are, whilst being exceedingly brave, extremely coy about how to drop these bombs.

Who do you want to drop these bombs on?
 
You mean you lied.

I did not lie, I simplified the historical context.

So you have a vision and yet you cannot tell us what will happen.

Your are playing with words matey, careful you don't outsmart yourself. I didn't say I had a vision, I said I had the vision to see that ISIL are, or will become a threat if left unchecked.

When you see an angry, drunken man walking down the road with with a loaded gun, you might not know precisely what is going to happen next or who he might kill or injure, but you know he's a threat.

This is the most intelligent thing you have written on this thread, and yet you continue to pretend to be Winston Churchill and to castigate anyone who doesn't share your bleary "vision" as Chamberlains.

Clearly, I am not the only one in this thread who sees what I see.

Oh, and you want to drop massive bombs on the Middle East but you are, whilst being exceedingly brave, extremely coy about how to drop these bombs.

I'm not a military strategist, but I would say using AGM-158s from aircraft is probably the best answer. Ballons would be a little slow and too easy a target for ground fire :p

Who do you want to drop these bombs on?

Well, they could start with the immediate threat, and target the ISil troops trying to take Kobani.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/10/kobani-isis-advance-kurdish-resistance-surprise

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us-mideast-crisis-idUSKCN0HX0XF20141010

They also need to go after the ISIL troops who are , as we speak, heading towards Baghdad
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/1...n-baghdad-even-as-world-watches-kobani-siege/

also, bomb the bejeezus out of the fallback areas on either side of the Iraq/Syrian border so that they have nowhere to fall back to when they retreat.

Oh, and if you still don't believe that ISIL can become a threat to our way of life...

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fe...-youth-flocking-isil-2014108101425255506.html
 

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