The Stimulus Seems to have failed

[BeAChooser]

Unfortunately for you, the last month of the recession was June, not May.

I suggest you go reread what the NBER actually said:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months

Now note that they state the recession lasted 18 months.

If it began in December 2007, as stated, then December 2007 is the first month of recession.

That would make December 2008 the 13th month of recession.

Meaning there were 5 months of recession still to go at that point.

Let's see … January (ONE), February (TWO), March (THREE), April (FOUR), May (FIVE).

In other words, the NBER clearly stated in the first paragraph of their press release on this matter that the LAST month of "recession" was in MAY.

They also clearly stated that the economy started heading back up in June. That's the meaning of the phrase "The trough marks … snip … the beginning of an expansion."

Do you wish to try digging the hole you are in deeper?

 

[lomiller]

In other words, the NBER clearly stated in the first paragraph of their press release on this matter that the LAST month of "recession" was in MAY.

Because it ended in June when stimulus money started to flow. So even you agree

They also clearly stated that the economy started heading back up in June.

When stimulus money started to flow...

Do you wish to try digging the hole you are in deeper?

It seems you are the one doing the digging...

 

[JohnnyG]

Unfortunately for you, the last month of the recession was June, not May. To paraphrase my earlier question, if you say the recession ended in May 09, despite numerous articles on the internet, in print, on television, on the radio and in this thread quoting the economic report as saying the recession ended in June 09, how can we take anything else you say seriously?

So June was both a month of recovery and a month of recession?

 

[Malerin]

Because it ended in June when stimulus money started to flow. So even you agree




When stimulus money started to flow...




It seems you are the one doing the digging...

There was no stimulus money spent until June?
I'm pretty sure it was signed into law in February.

 

[lomiller]

There was no stimulus money spent until June?
I'm pretty sure it was signed into law in February.

Only about 5% on the money was spent prior to June, of course that doesn't mean some of the jobs didn't precede the money (in fact I'd expect it). June, however was when the stimulus really started to ramp up. Cash for Clunkers also started in June of 2009.

 

[lomiller]

So June was both a month of recovery and a month of recession?

Correct, the end of the recession and the beginning of the recovery were both in June.

 

[JohnnyG]

Correct, the end of the recession and the beginning of the recovery were both in June.

So the recession did end before the end of June then.

 

[lomiller]

So the recession did end before the end of June then.

You don't read very well do you

 

[BeAChooser]

So June was both a month of recovery and a month of recession?

No, not according to the methodology that the NBER established to define recessions.

MAY 2009 was the last month of recession.

JUNE 2009 was the first month of the recovery.

At least if you wish to believe the NBER is credible.

 

[JohnnyG]

You don't read very well do you

What am I misreading? You said both the end of the recession and the beginning of the recovery happened in June. Since you can't be in recession and recovery at the same time, some of June was recession while the remainder was recovery.

 

[lomiller]

No, not according to the methodology that the NBER established to define recessions.

Yes, according to the methodology used by the NBER. Your own quote says that the trough, the point where the economy stopped going down and started going up occurred in June.

At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.

Please explain to us in detail how the recession can end in may if the low point is in June. You're attempts at logic are always good for a laugh

 

[BeAChooser]

lomiller ... what was that you said to someone?

You don't read very well do you

 

[fallout]

Is there anyone in here talking about U.S. economy recovery? Did I read it well. Guess I need glasses.

 

[lomiller]

lomiller ... what was that you said to someone?

The same thing I'm about to say to you. Your own quotes say the US economy was going downhill until June and that the end of the recession (which is also the beginning of the recovery) occurred in June. Since you linked and quoted them anyway it's clear you did not manage to actually read what it said.

 

[Dorian Gray]

BAC and JohnnyG: The autumnal equinox marks the end of summer and the beginning of fall. This year, it happened at Sept. 22, 2010, 11:09 P.M. By your same twisted ignorant logic, summer ended in August because September was part summer, part fall.

Either you're both that stupid, or you're both that dishonest.

As has been pointed out nearly everywhere, the recession ended in June 09. January 09 to June 09 is 5 months, speaking of people who cannot count OR read.

 

[Dorian Gray]

Second and third sentences of the article YOU linked, BAC:
"At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion."

Trough marks end of recession.
Trough occurred in June 2009.
Therefore, end of recession occurred in June 2009. QED.

Now let's backtrack on another fallacious comment you made:

If it began in December 2007, as stated, then December 2007 is the first month of recession.

That would make December 2008 the 13th month of recession.

It's reasonable to pick a date to compare - let's say 15 Dec 07.
15Dec07 to
15Dec08 = 13 months
15Nov08 = 12 months
15Oct08 = 11 months
15Sep08 = 10 months
15Aug08 = 9 months
15Jul08 = 8 months
15Jun08 = 7 months
15May08 = 6 months
15Apr08 = 5 months
15Mar08 = 4 months
15Feb08 = 3 months
15Jan08 = 2 months
15Dec07 = 1 month..... so you're saying one day is equal to one month. Since that is absolutely and completely factually incorrect, I guess you are utterly and completely wrong.

NOW you can cue the crickets.

 

[BeAChooser]

NOW you can cue the crickets.

LOL! The NBER stated quite clearly and unambiguously that "The recession lasted 18 months" and that the recession "began in December 2007". Do you dispute this?

In your desperation to get yourself out of the hole you dug, you want to muddy the water by bringing in YOUR *interpretation* of what "trough" means. I'll just stick with what the NBER actually said in very clear English, and let the math/calendar skills that I learned long before I went to first grade complete the picture:

December 2007 - month 1
January 2008 - month 2
February 2008 - month 3
March 2008 - month 4
April 2008 - month 5
May 2008 - month 6
June 2008 - month 7
July 2008 - month 8
August 2008 - month 9
September 2008 - month 10
October 2008 - month 11
November 2008 - month 12
December 2008 - month 13
January 2009 - month 14
February 2009 - month 15
March 2009 - month 16
April 2009 - month 17
May 2009 - month 18

Clearly the NBER dates MAY as the last month of recession (assuming the NBER knows what they are doing in the first place).

 

[BeAChooser]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-more-than-forecast-to-a-seven-month-low.html

Mounting gloom over the outlook for jobs and wages caused American consumers to lose confidence in September, indicating spending will take time to recover.

The Conference Board’s sentiment index declined to 48.5 this month, lower than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the weakest level since February, according to figures from the New York-based private research group today. Another report showed home prices cooled, hurt by a slump in sales following the end of a government tax incentive.

Gosh, I thought the stimulus was supposed to lead to "Recovery Summer". What went wrong?

 

[lomiller]

BaC, do you really think Jan 1 to Dec 1 is two months? If so not only can’t you read you also can’t do basic math.

Clearly the NBER dates MAY as the last month of recession

The NBER specifically says the recession continues into June...

(assuming the NBER knows what they are doing in the first place).

The NBER developed the US system of national accounts by which GDP is measured and have been the standard organization to call the official beginning and end of recessions since that time. Any time you see dates given for the beginning/end of a recession from the 1940’s onward those numbers came from the NBER declaration of when that recession started and ended.

 

[BeAChooser]

What's went wrong? Maybe here's a clue:

http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/28/pf/household_income_report/index.htm?hpt=T2

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Washington, D.C.'s workers enjoy the highest salaries of any major U.S. city., with a median household income of $85,198.

The nation's capital fared better than most of the rest of the country in 2009, according to the Census Bureau's annual survey of income and poverty in the United States, which was released on Tuesday.