The Stimulus Seems to have failed

Who is claiming that GOP representatives are above hypocrisy? Let's just stick to the facts and get the politics out of it. The Stimulus has been a bust.

The OP was all about politics; mention of the economic stimulus was simply a vehicle for the OP to imply executive incompetence and failure to follow through on promises.

To keep politics out of this discussion you will have to start a new thread.
 
Who is claiming that GOP representatives are above hypocrisy? Let's just stick to the facts and get the politics out of it. The Stimulus has been a bust.

The facts are that job creation was only a small part of the Recovery Act's stated goals. The fact is the effect has not fully played out. The fact is that a number of jobs were created. I am working one of those. It appears it would have eventually arrived but I got a seven month head start on it due to Recovery Act funds. Complaining that the effort has not yet yielded up stellar results that plays to the political rhetoric of the saleman is being stuck on politics and ignoring the facts.

I'm a :rule10 very liberal social democrat and I was upset with the nature of the Recovery Act. A more ideal bill, to me, would have kept emergency funds for state services as in the current bill and replaced the entire tax cuts with infrastructure repaire and expansion.

If you want to have a factual discussion and debate on the level of success and failure of specific aspects across various factors... okay let us have that discussion. Declaring the bill either an utter failure or a stellar succes is flat out politics. The OP is a very general political statement. If you want a political debate, that is fine as well. However be honest in what debate you want. Factual or political.
 
The nonpartisan CBO examined the actual facts; they came to the opposite conclusion.

Did they?

The CBO estimated that the stimulus was responsible for between a million and 2 million jobs in 2009. That's quite a range of uncertainty. And what kind of jobs were they? Make work jobs or real jobs that actually produce something and that will still be there 5 years from now and have a real impact on our long term economic outlook? And how do they know that the stimulus caused the economy to do any better at creating jobs than the economy would have done had government not interfered? Have they a model that tells them what the economy would have done had the government not interfered? Have they ever validated that model against historical data? If they have, then by all means link me to those analyses. Doubt you can. :D

And by the way, if the government did spend a couple hundred billion dollars in 2009 creating/saving at most 2 million jobs or so, then the government has spent roughly $100,000 per job. If it was only 1 million jobs (which is closer to what most other groups have estimated), then they spent roughly $200,000 per job. $200,000 (even $100,000) is a lot of money to pay people who are just cutting lawns, painting buildings, repaving streets and moving papers from one pile to another. It's a lot even if you claim the jobs saved were all teachers ... especially the teachers letting half the kids in public schools in the largest 50 school districts not graduate high school. :D
 
Personally I'm manufacturing microchips. In the time frame I produced about $1,800 in Federal taxes, $1,200 in state, $1200 in social security, a few hunderd in various other funds.... the rest of my income largerly went to rent and utilities with the rest being spent on food/consumer goods.

Also, my job does not count towards the numbers cited by the CBO or other models since mine was not directly supplied by Recovery Act funds. Recovery Act funds went to a number of projects and businesses that suddenly saw an increase in need for various types of microchips my employer makes. The increase demand that could be traced directly to Recovery Act funded projects created a labor deficit in the company, creating a new position that I filled. Seven months later the economy is doing better and demand is rising again. This position would have opened up now but instead new positions are opening up to meet increased demand that sits on top of the previously created demand.

Perhaps my improved situation is not worth $100,000 or $200,000 dollars in public debt to you. Perhaps to you the sudden jump in unemployment from 3% to 12% in my city as my industry collapsed leading to a painful spiral in the local economy is the lesser of two of evils. Perhaps, but I am glad that even though the Recovery Act was far far from my ideal that it at least had a direct positive impact on my situation. I am much happier working my high tech manufacturing job instead of fighting with a few thousand people to work at 7-11 as I did when I first struck out on my own.

Also, the Recovery Act did include one of the most massive tax cuts in US history. That is part of why it has impacted the deficit so heavily. So at least in that regard it could be deemed as partially successful to those who want lower taxes in the US. Personally I consider that a failure as I want higher taxes, even for myself. Also creating tax cuts during two wars and a recession feels counter intuitive to me.

Your experiences may vary.

ETA:
And you still find time to post during the workday? :D
The plant runs 24 hours. It is part of the foundry business. I work 12 hour night shifts. I am on my weekend. I post in my time off. Yes, somehow I find the time to play around on the internet despite having a job since we do not live in a 19th century rural labor market.
 
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Did they?

The CBO estimated that the stimulus was responsible for between a million and 2 million jobs in 2009. That's quite a range of uncertainty. And what kind of jobs were they? Make work jobs or real jobs that actually produce something and that will still be there 5 years from now and have a real impact on our long term economic outlook? And how do they know that the stimulus caused the economy to do any better at creating jobs than the economy would have done had government not interfered? Have they a model that tells them what the economy would have done had the government not interfered? Have they ever validated that model against historical data? If they have, then by all means link me to those analyses. Doubt you can. :D

Actually all of those questions are fairly easy to answer. "What kind of jobs were they"--well for the jobs directly created by the stimulus package you can go to recovery.gov and find out. Maybe you think vital repairs and maintenance on US infrastructure is a "make work" job, but not many people do. The other jobs they've created are downstream jobs (heavy machinery makers, asphalt and concrete factory workers, worksite food vendors etc. etc. etc. which would otherwise have had to lay people off. You'd have to somewhat insane to call those "make work" jobs--and obviously those are jobs that "actually produce something" and which contribute to "the economy." And equally obviously, it minimizes economic disruption to have reduced the number of workers laid off in these sorts of fields until the economy starts to pick up on its own (as it is doing now).

Would these jobs have happened anyway? No, of course not. That's idiotic. Since when does the private sector decide to start fixing roads or mending bridges as a gift to the nation? If private sector companies wanted to launch projects that employed these workers, the stimulus package certainly wasn't stopping them. You have at least noticed the unemployment figures, haven't you? It's not a matter of the stimulus projects "hogging all the workers" so that the private companies couldn't employ them.

Can I link to a "model" showing this? Have you bothered to read the CBO report? They make their models very explicit. But as for whether these jobs would have appeared anyway--you have to be utterly delusional to imagine that they would have. There's no imaginable mechanism by which they would.

It's reasonable to argue whether the stimulus package was a worthwhile expenditure of government money in the long run. It's simply lunatic to try to pretend that the government spending billions of dollars to directly hire people to do a wide range of different jobs can somehow not have a direct effect on job numbers or overall economic performance. That's not an argument, it's sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting "lalalalalalalala I can't hear you!"

And by the way, if the government did spend a couple hundred billion dollars in 2009 creating/saving at most 2 million jobs or so, then the government has spent roughly $100,000 per job. If it was only 1 million jobs (which is closer to what most other groups have estimated), then they spent roughly $200,000 per job. $200,000 (even $100,000) is a lot of money to pay people who are just cutting lawns, painting buildings, repaving streets and moving papers from one pile to another. It's a lot even if you claim the jobs saved were all teachers ... especially the teachers letting half the kids in public schools in the largest 50 school districts not graduate high school. :D

Gosh, what an economic genius you must be. So, genius, tell me. Given that the average salary of people paid by the stimulus money was nowhere near $200,000 p/a, what do you think that money got spent on? Do you think someone must have skimmed it all off the top? That it's sitting in a Swiss Bank account? Please, I'd be really interested to hear your fascinating theories about how money circulates in an economy.
 
Also, my job does not count towards the numbers cited by the CBO or other models since mine was not directly supplied by Recovery Act funds.

Not true. The CBO included indirect jobs in their estimated total.

Perhaps my improved situation is not worth $100,000 or $200,000 dollars in public debt to you.

Alas, it is not.

Perhaps to you the sudden jump in unemployment from 3% to 12% in my city as my industry collapsed leading to a painful spiral in the local economy is the lesser of two of evils.

Why did your industry collapse? Should we have *saved* programming jobs back in the late 90's when the internet boom collapsed?

Also, the Recovery Act did include one of the most massive tax cuts in US history.

Do you really believe that? It certainly didn't cut taxes on future generations. It only increased them.

Also creating tax cuts during two wars and a recession feels counter intuitive to me.

Yet cutting taxes has historically been shown to work in stimulating economies in recession after recession, and depression after depression, throughout out history.
 
Not true. The CBO included indirect jobs in their estimated total.
Then I stand corrected. I thought it was only directly created jobs.



Alas, it is not.
I thought as much. Hopefully you are never in the same situation I was in. Even if you are I hope we collectively as a nation do what we can to get you back to work.


Why did your industry collapse?
I should have been more clear. The industry only collapsed in my city. Largely it was because worlwide the industry took a dip due to market glut and ever increasing innovation in the field. There was quite a bit of mismanagement and when a few of the big industry players started seeing their executives get jail time for corruption and price fixing a different strategy was attempted to drown the smaller competition. Unfortunately it combined with the upcoming recession and worked too well hurting everyone. My specific plant got the axe because of contradictory management goals. The industry is fully alive and somewhat essential to the world economy. Reallocating jobs is not the only solution. A return to education is also helping others that were with me.

Should we have *saved* programming jobs back in the late 90's when the internet boom collapsed?
I care less about the specific jobs. Getting those people back to work is more important than saving the specific jobs. Getting me back to work was more important than staying within the industry even if my preferance was to stay within the industry I was. If I am just collecting unemployment I am a drain on social system. If I am doing productive work (which I am if you ever using any microchip device beyond a computer or enjoy the services of equipment that do.... you know like our defense network, transportation network, utilities, communication systems, ect) I am at least helping the economy even if it as at a debt. For the 200k for your worse case model, I have only slightly paid off the public debt but put about $18k directly into the economy and produced about $500k worth of product that would not have been manufactured. In comparison if I was on unemployment benefits for that period I would have cost at least $20k but put significantly less back in to the economy (unemployment also gets taxed and I would been inclined to save much more than I did with a job) and produced about $0 worth of product. The positive feedback of government spending resulted in a higher GDP increase than debt increase. I doubt all jobs are as productive so I assume quite a bit of that gets eaten up in things like service jobs.


Do you really believe that? It certainly didn't cut taxes on future generations. It only increased them.
Which can be said about any tax cut. Which is my main problem with tax cuts. I would rather pay higher taxes to lessen future costs. To me it sounds like you agree with my opposition to tax cuts that have been a big political rhetoric spouted by both parties. I doubt we agree on spending issues but I think we can agree that tax cuts without cutting spending or significant GDP growth to account for those cuts is just selfishly passing the burden on to future generations so that we may pay less taxes now.



Yet cutting taxes has historically been shown to work in stimulating economies in recession after recession, and depression after depression, throughout out history.
I have heard different things from different economists. I am not even clear on which models are the consensus in economics. The reason it feels counter intuitive to me is that spending generally goes way up during wars and recessions. The demand on social services sky rocket requiring more resources. We are not just in a recession, we are in a recession during two wars. Abandoning the safety nets when people need them most and ignoring the monetary costs of war feels counter intuitive to me. It does not mean that it is wrong, but it still feels counter intuitive to me with the arguements otherwise having failed to convince my uneducated stance on the issue.
 
Did they?

And what kind of jobs were they? Make work jobs or real jobs that actually produce something and that will still be there 5 years from now and have a real impact on our long term economic outlook?

Wouldn't it be better to have the government funded jobs end after the economy recovers so that the workers will be forced to get jobs in the private sector, as opposed to jobs that continue forever with the government continuing to fund them?
 
I am of the opinion that stimulus bills in general don't work and are merely:
A. A placebo to make populations think something is being done.
B. An excuse for whichever party is in power to spend on what it wants.

I am not ever sure if Obama himself believed it would have much effect. If he ever studied the great depression, he would know that the re-capitalization of the banks (thus ending the bank run in progress) basically prevented a new depression. Thus, waiting for recovery is simply a waiting game.
 
B. An excuse for whichever party is in power to spend on what it wants.
Which going by the stated goals in the Recovery Act is fairly accurate. Recovering the economy was part of the stated goals but only a small portion of such. The Recovery Act seemed more focussed on stabilzation of services, consumer spending and investing for the future than in direct economic spurs. Economic Stimulus is really just vague political rhetoric. A bill can affect specific factors that affect the overall economy. Specific factors have to be addressed specifically.
 
Is the logic behind increased government spending following a negative AD shock that hard to understand? We get stuck in equilibrium below potential output, government increases purchases in order to restore AD to previous levels. If you don't like that, you can sit jobless or take consecutive pay cuts for a few years till the economy corrects itself. There are really only two options in a recession: increase spending/cut taxes which is the fast track to recovery or let wages and the price level fall naturally which is the hard way.

And as for the tax cut, if I'm not mistaken this is merely a temporary measure, which we can expect to have little effect on household spending. Since consumers are not expecting the tax cut to persist, the majority of the money they receive is going straight into their savings account, whereas government spending should be used to increase the level of autonomous spending in the economy. This is a popularity/shut the GOP up kind of measure.

And to all of those who are (already) saying the stimulus has failed, the money has not all been spent, and we haven't allowed long enough for the effects to be seen. The funds need to be allocated to various projects, and then put into the hands of the average consumer (by means of a wage). Furthermore, these average consumers need to start spending that money, and then the effects will be felt. We are probably just now seeing the effects of the first few months of stimulus spending. Remember, they had to pass the bill, allocate the funds, get those funds into the hands of the workers, and the workers need to spend (a portion) of those funds before we will see the intended effects of the bill. On top of that, the full effects of every dollar of government spending will not be felt until it has gone through the multiplier process. So consumers have to spend stimulus money, which then becomes income for other consumers, who in turn spend that, and so forth. So what we have is a several-month long lag between the spending of a stimulus dollar and the full realization of its effects.

If the stimulus money was spent long ago, and we still had not seen any signs of a recovery, we would have grounds to call it a failure. However, it is certainly too early to judge. And to all of you who were against this bill in the first place, I can pretty much guarantee we were taking a long vacation to depressionland.
 
Just a couple quick points here for what it is worth. Even before the bill was signed the Obama administration clearly said it would take about 18 months before all the stimulus money was spent. According to that claim we have six months to go before the clock should even be started on its total effects. And that clock should probably need to be run for another year or so before any real analysis of pass/fail on the stimulus is determined. Based on that, this discussion is tentative at best and perhaps the OP should be asking this come summer of 2011 based on the expectations of those who drew up the plan.

Also, my understanding is that part of the large cost per worker is that workers already in place are being paid for the task of creating the new jobs. They wouldn't be necessarily getting paid to do that without the stimulus package. Thus some of the cost is in doing that and other such logistical leg work for the new jobs which might require at least a person or two or more to set them up.
 
Actually all of those questions are fairly easy to answer. "What kind of jobs were they"--well for the jobs directly created by the stimulus package you can go to recovery.gov and find out. Maybe you think vital repairs and maintenance on US infrastructure is a "make work" job, but not many people do.

I've watched stimulus money at work in my own city repaving a road that was not in need of repaving. I call that "make work". And I don't consider paying people to mow lawns or paint buildings to be anything but "make work". Yet there is a lot of that type of thing in that list of jobs at recovery.gov. Jobs that don't really produce a product. Jobs that are fixing what ain't broke.

Furthermore, do you know that at one point it was claimed by recovery.gov (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...-to-stimulus-propaganda-8548408-70315642.html ) that the purchase of one lawnmower created 50 jobs? That 935 jobs were "saved" in an organization that only had 508 employees? That $26,174 in stimulus funds for "roof repair" created 450 jobs? It was claimed that millions and millions of dollars in stimulus money was spent creating jobs in congressional districts that don't even exist (http://www.lvrj.com/news/errors-on-web-site-fund-list-70448757.html , http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2009/11/recoverygov_web_site_errors_fu.html ). That $42000 in stimulus money saved or created 5000 jobs in Alabama (http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/16/examiner-analysis-more-than-10-of-stimulus-jobs-are-phony/ ). Just to list a few examples. Sorry but I'm not sure that website you mention is run by credible, trustworthy people who are really interested in the truth.

And even where the numbers are credible, unless the job actually creates something that can be sold in the market economy, it probably isn't anything but "make work". Building a dam to create energy using locally made materials, locally built generators, and local construction labor not only creates jobs in America but creates a facility that can will create energy (a vital product) long after the money funding it's construction is gone. And building it will give people here in the US skills and employment that can be harnessed long term for other market needs. But spending 80% of funding putting in wind turbines built in China (as noted in post #10) does not create long term jobs here in America. Most of that money is wasted.

Speaking of wind turbines, the stimulus money is often touted as going towards the creation of "green jobs" over the long haul. Obama and company want people to believe green jobs will replace the old jobs. That they'll bring prosperity. But data is already showing that the so-called "green jobs" in many cases reduce total employment and hurt the overall economy.

For example, http://www.heritage.org/research/energyandenvironment/wm2795.cfm notes this:

Green-job subsidies siphon resources and jobs away from other parts of the economy. A study of alternative energy in Spain estimates that the cost of such subsidies for wind and solar prevents 2.2 such private-sector jobs for each green job created.

… snip …

Spain has likely destroyed more jobs than it has created with its extensive subsidies for wind and solar. Its unemployment rate, nearly 19 percent, is double that of the U.S. and does not suggest that green jobs can create prosperity. In Denmark, each wind energy job has cost $90,000 to $140,000 in subsidies, which is more than the jobs pay. In Germany, the figure is as high as $240,000. And the experience in Spain, Denmark, and Germany is that most of the green jobs created are temporary ones.

… snip …

Global warming legislation has also been also touted as a green jobs measure, including the Senate's pending Boxer-Kerry cap-and-trade bill. However, a Heritage analysis finds job losses from this bill reaching 2.5 million in some years, including 1 million in the manufacturing sector. These are net job losses--after any green jobs are taken into account.

Or just look at California.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336500319935517.html

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was all smiles in 2006 when he signed into law the toughest anti-global-warming regulations of any state. Mr. Schwarzenegger and his green supporters boasted that the regulations would steer California into a prosperous era of green jobs, renewable energy, and technological leadership. Instead, since 2007 -- in anticipation of the new mandates -- California has led the nation in job losses.

In fact, the cap and trades agenda which is part of this green agenda is a scam that will only end hurting our economy.

http://www.factcheck.org/2009/10/cap-and-trade-green-jobs-or-job-killer/

According to projections by the Energy Information Administration and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the net effect of the House cap-and-trade bill will likely be to slow future job growth. … snip … So claims that the bill would create hundreds of thousands of "green jobs" are misleading, at best. The government’s own official economic projections indicate more jobs will be lost than created.

And isn't it doubly ironic that the need for that legislation turns out to have been based on fraudulent data from climatologists promoting an ideology?

And isn't it interesting that tens of millions of that green job stimulus money have gone to unions such as SEIU which are Obama's and ACORN'S good friends (http://www.verumserum.com/?p=11408 )?

And how cost effective are those so-called green jobs that liberals tout?

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2010/20100128101850.aspx

Olbermann was recapping President Obama's speech and told viewers: "Among those seated with the first lady in the visitor's gallery ... a man from Arizona whose company received $99 million from the stimulus and used it to create at least 50 permanent clean energy jobs."

What Olbermann didn't say was that 50 jobs at the cost of $99 million is nearly $2 million each, something taxpayers might not view that as a successful and efficient use of their money.

Wow! Get me some of that! And amazingly enough, that number seems more in line with what many are reporting as the number of jobs that *might* be created with that nearly trillion dollars in stimulus funding. :D

The other jobs they've created are downstream jobs (heavy machinery makers, asphalt and concrete factory workers, worksite food vendors etc. etc. etc. which would otherwise have had to lay people off. You'd have to somewhat insane to call those "make work" jobs

So anytime there's an economic downturn from now on you're going to have the government intervene and keep heavy machinery makers, asphalt and concrete plant workers and food vender fully employed? :rolleyes:

and obviously those are jobs that "actually produce something" and which contribute to "the economy."

In a downturn, people don't need more concrete, they need less concrete. They don't need more machinery, they need less. And if it turns out those machinery makers were making machinery to make products that are no longer competitive with products produced by other companies or other countries, then all you are doing is delaying the day those makers are out of work. All you are doing is using resources that should have been moved to a more productive part of the economy.

Would these jobs have happened anyway? No, of course not. That's idiotic.

Perhaps not those specific jobs but some other jobs would have happened … jobs that are NOT make work. If you look at the history of recession and depressions, you find over and over and over that those downturns where government didn't get involved, where government actually reduced taxes, spending and regulation, were the downturns that ended the soonest with the greatest post-downturn job and GDP growth. THAT is what history shows, just as history shows that government are very, very bad at managing economies and resources.

What is "idiotic" is the continual failure of the left to appreciate that recessions serve an important purpose. They are the phase of free market economies where inefficiencies are removed, bad decision makers are removed, and resources are reallocated to better use. Without them, the free market would become bloated, inefficient and ineffective … just like government.

You see, Yoink, the notion that government can manage economies better than a Free Market is what's truly idiotic, and yet it underlies the agenda of Obama and any who push his Big Government socialist agenda. But it has been proven over and over in the last century that government can't efficiently manage economies. Those countries that tried have gone belly up. And become totalitarian in the process.

Do you notice that the response of government officials, unions, and liberals during this recession has been to believe that no one should suffer from the effects of the recession. Especially not them. In particular, no one in government should suffer from bad decisions made by the government or their government union officials. While the average hard-working, tax-paying Americans are seeing job losses, cuts in salaries and losses in retirement investments, the unions have been busy insisting that those same Americans should pay to insulate union employees from any loss of jobs, salary cuts or bad investments by their union management. Given that philosophical underpinning, is it any wonder the Stimulus is a bust folks? These people running the stimulus program simply don't understand basic economics.

Can I link to a "model" showing this? Have you bothered to read the CBO report? They make their models very explicit.

I have read the CBO report and they do not make their models explicit. And there is no indication that they have ever tried to validate their models against what happened in past recessions. That is what I'm asking you. Have you any proof that those models actually work with past data? That they accurately model what happened in past recessions where the government cut taxes, cut spending and eliminated regulation? Hmmmm?

But as for whether these jobs would have appeared anyway--you have to be utterly delusional to imagine that they would have. There's no imaginable mechanism by which they would.

LOL! The mechanism is called the Free Market. It's called Capitalism. It's called Profit Motive. It's called Self Interest. My "delusion" is backed up by one historical case after another where without a stimulus, our economy not only recovered from a recession or depression in less time than it's still not recovered with this recession with a stimulus, but recovered with much stronger post-recession job and GDP growth. I point you to examples like the recessions and depressions that took place in 1837, 1893, 1921, 1815, 1873, 1958 and 1979. And what do you point me too?

It's simply lunatic to try to pretend that the government spending billions of dollars to directly hire people to do a wide range of different jobs can somehow not have a direct effect on job numbers or overall economic performance. That's not an argument, it's sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting "lalalalalalalala I can't hear you!"

I never argued that Strawman. Sure, they've created some jobs. I even named some. But not efficiently or effectively, and many of those jobs will disappear the moment the money dries up. Then what?

Gosh, what an economic genius you must be.

Not at all. But I can read and do the math, and apply a little skeptical logic.

But So, genius, tell me. Given that the average salary of people paid by the stimulus money was nowhere near $200,000 p/a, what do you think that money got spent on?

You tell us. All I'm doing is citing the CBOs own figures (the ones you touted) and doing the math. They said that $200 billion of the stimulus money had been spent in 2009. And they said the number of jobs created was somewhere between 1 million and 2 million (roughly). So do the math. That works out to roughly $100,000 to $200,000 being spent per job. And since you claim that the average salary of the people paid by the stimulus money was nowhere near that, where'd it go? Maybe we should investigate rather than give the government (as Obama as asked) still more money to be spent in such an inefficient, ineffective (and it would seem unexplainable) manner? :D
 
The industry only collapsed in my city. Largely it was because worlwide the industry took a dip due to market glut and ever increasing innovation in the field. There was quite a bit of mismanagement and when a few of the big industry players started seeing their executives get jail time for corruption and price fixing a different strategy was attempted to drown the smaller competition.

Ah, so there were some underlying inefficiencies and mismanagement. Some poorly allocated resources. And you think that by insulating yourself from the economic effects of those your city will eliminate them? :rolleyes:

Quote:
Should we have *saved* programming jobs back in the late 90's when the internet boom collapsed?

… snip ...

Getting those people back to work is more important than saving the specific jobs.

And the Free Market has proven itself very good at doing that. Whereas government has proven just the opposite, time and again. Why not just let the free market operate?

Getting me back to work was more important than staying within the industry

And yet it sounds like you are still in the same inefficient industrial community … but at the expense of someone else's competiveness (because where do you think the taxes paying you are coming from?)

If I am just collecting unemployment I am a drain on social system.

But you paid into the unemployment system so you deserve at least what you paid in. The problem comes when the government interferes and starts extending the length of time you can be on unemployment indefinitely. Then it becomes welfare. Then it becomes a drain on someone else's economic potential.

For the 200k for your worse case model

That's not the worst case model. I cited figures that indicate some of the stimulus jobs were created at a cost of millions apiece. And not everyone agrees that even the number of jobs claimed by the CBO as a lower bound were actually created. and in point of fact, making computer chips is very expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if the cost to keep you employed doing that (considering overhead) is well above $200,000 a year.

I have only slightly paid off the public debt but put about $18k directly into the economy and produced about $500k worth of product that would not have been manufactured.

Why should tax payers be on the hook to pay for a private company making $500k of product with whatever profit that implies? If the product is wanted, then someone in the free market will pay for it. Perhaps someone else might have made a million dollars in product from whatever money the government took from them in order to keep your apparently inefficient, badly managed operation going?

In comparison if I was on unemployment benefits for that period I would have cost at least $20k

$20k is still less than $200k, and that means $180k would have been available for the market to reallocate to industries and products that actually are in demand. Too bad.

Quote:
Do you really believe that? It certainly didn't cut taxes on future generations. It only increased them.

Which can be said about any tax cut.

No, tax cuts that actually increase the competitiveness of companies stimulate the economy and can cut taxes on future generations. We've seen it before. The problem is that Obama only wants to reduce taxes on people who, for the most part, pay little or no taxes. That's his political base. The people he's promising something for nothing. At the same time, he's turning around and eliminating the tax cuts on the people who actually do pay most of the taxes and who have been the source of most new jobs. He's increasing taxes on small businesses and many large corporations. He's massively increasing spending and borrowing to pay the difference. That will increase the cost of money and make it harder for companies here to expand. That will only reduce the number of jobs created in the future. That will only increase the taxes that future generations have to pay inorder to fund all that new unproductive debt. That is not typical of tax cuts.

We are not just in a recession, we are in a recession during two wars.

Actually, top people in Obama's administration have stated the recession is over. That being the case, why the need for more stimulus spending?
 
And to all of those who are (already) saying the stimulus has failed, the money has not all been spent, and we haven't allowed long enough for the effects to be seen.

And yet the program was sold on the promise that the money would go out the door very quickly to quickly impact employment. But it didn't. The program was sold on the premise that we were in recession ... a recession that would be much deeper if something wasn't done IMMEDIATELY. Yet now that even top officials in the Obama administration are saying the recession itself is over, suddenly there's the same urgency? They say we need to allocate even more money to creating jobs than the original trillion (approximately) that you yourself admit has not all been spent yet? Why not spend the original money before asking for more? Because the real purpose of the stimulus bill was to create a slush fund come election time in 2012. Just watch. :D
 
Even before the bill was signed the Obama administration clearly said it would take about 18 months before all the stimulus money was spent. According to that claim we have six months to go before the clock should even be started on its total effects.

I'm curious. Will all the stimulus money be spent 18 months after the bill was signed? Are they still promising that now? ;)

And here's something else the Obama administration promised back in early 2009 when they sold this slush fund to the people:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press...k-obama-address-to-joint-session-of-congress/

Remarks of President Barack Obama … snip … February 24th, 2009

… snip …

Over the next two years, this plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs. More than 90% of these jobs will be in the private sector – jobs rebuilding our roads and bridges; constructing wind turbines and solar panels; laying broadband and expanding mass transit.

Let's see how that turned out. Where have most of the new/saved jobs actually been?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/us/31stimulus.html

October 30, 2009

… snip …

Of the 640,239 jobs recipients claimed to have created or saved so far, officials said, more than half — 325,000 — were in education.

…. snip …

Although the stimulus was initially sold in large part as a public works program, only about 80,000 of the jobs that were claimed Friday were in construction.

In other words, most of the jobs created have been in government, rather than 90% of them being in the private sector as promised.

Furthermore, do you know that http://politicalmath.wordpress.com/2009/11/05/dirty-stimulus-jobs-data-exaggerates-stimulus-impact/ :

- Over 6,500 of all the “created or saved” jobs are cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), which is really just a raise of about 2% for 6,500 people. That’s not a job saved, no matter how you calculate it.

- Over 6,000 of the jobs are federal work study jobs, which are part time jobs for needy students. As such, they’re not really “jobs” in the sense that most other federal agencies report job statistics (We don’t count full time college students as “unemployed” in the statistics.)

- About half of the jobs (over 300,000) fall under the “State Fiscal Stabilization Fund” … snip … The federal government comes in with stimulus funds and subsidizes the state programs. Consider this a “reach-around” tax in which the state can’t raise taxes its citizens any more, but the federal government can. So the federal government just gives the state the money to keep running programs they can’t afford on their own.

- There are, scattered hither and non, contracts and grants that state in no unclear language that “This project has no jobs created or retained” but lists dozens, if not hundreds, of jobs that have been “saved or created” by the project. It makes no sense whatsoever.

These are all government jobs. We were lied to by Obama.

http://www.nowhampshire.com/2009/10...ted-221-private-sector-jobs-in-new-hampshire/

October 21, 2009

President Barack Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), commonly known as the stimulus act, created or saved only 221 private sector jobs between February 17th and September 30th NowHampshire.com has learned.

According to a report issued on Tuesday by Orville “Bud” Fitch, Governor John Lynch’s designated “stimulus czar,” the stimulus has financed 3,872,686 hours of work in the Granite State. However, the huge majority of the “Full-Time Equivalent” jobs appended to those hours – around 93% of all stimulus jobs, in fact — are government jobs through the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund.

We were lied to because Obama and his staff had to have known how the money was going to actually be spent at the time he made that promise that 90% of the new and saved jobs would be in the private sector.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9090878

The federal stimulus funding that has reached Michigan so far has created few private-sector jobs and some recipients of the cash have overstated the number of jobs created or protected, an analysis by the Detroit Free Press shows.

The newspaper's examination of the more than 1,800 awards to agencies, departments, municipalities and firms in Michigan under the stimulus act found the biggest impact was spurring or protecting public-sector or summer jobs — not private-sector jobs.

We were lied to, Chucky.

http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/opinion/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1266580991163360.xml&coll=3

February 19, 2010

… snip ...

Obama and his supporters, including Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, trotted out statistics this week to back up the limited success of the spending effort. According to the president, 2 million jobs were saved, yet no one is fooled by the numbers. Most of the jobs preserved were in the public sector -- unionized government jobs -- and upcoming state budgets in New Jersey and Pennsylvania are showing how a mere deferral of pain cannot substitute for real economic growth.


Lied to by Obama when he sold his porkulus package designed to fund his union friends and rob from everyone else. And you folks still haven't woken up to that plain and simple fact.

Also, my understanding is that part of the large cost per worker is that workers already in place are being paid for the task of creating the new jobs.

LOL! By all means, show us your backup sources to prove that claim. :D
 

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