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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part V

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Please quote the post where Jay said this.

I can however think of a number of instances from WW2 where ships were sunk because they did run to a fixed timetable. Both in the Med and the Pacific.

That wasn't what the post in question claimed though.
 
I can however think of a number of instances from WW2 where ships were sunk because they did run to a fixed timetable. Both in the Med and the Pacific.

That wasn't what the post in question claimed though.

Oh definitely, that's one reason why the wolf packs were so successful.
 
I have no clue what Bildt said within hours of accident, but I do know that your reporting is not accurate. So whatever it was, it wasn't what you claim it to be.



I notice that you don't give a reference to Lehtola saying that the bow visor faile on the day one.

Because there is none.

Prove me wrong. Show where Lehtola said that on Day One. I dare and double-dare you. Prove me wrong.



The guys are still in the hospital when they are being filmed.

They were interviewed because the TV crew interviewed a lot of people and they were surviving crew members. Then their interview was chosen to news broadcast because they were the only interviewed survivors that knew anything concrete about what happened to the ship.

You are trying to get us believe that in the few hours after the accident Bildt had time to come up with a fake story, coach it to someone who then flew to Turku to find surviving crew members, find Sillaste and Kadak in the hospital, somehow convince them to lie to the cameras, and teach the story to them. Yeah, right. Sounds sensible.



So not being a six foot tall blonde übermensch is a strike against Sillaste's credibility? I wonder if he is actually one of those beasts in the fields that populated Estonia before the Germans came there to civilize them. (Note to onlookers: that's how Vixen described medieval Estonians a few years ago in another thread: "living like beast in the fields." )



Lehtola certainly does say this on Day One, as reported in 30.9.1994 Helsingin Sanomat, the day after his first press release:

Estonia, which was travelling from Tallinn to Stockholm, sank early on Wednesday in the waters of Uto. Investigators suspect that the cause of the accident was the betrayal of the ship's bow gate. According to Research Commissioner Kari Lehtola, something has happened to the gate. "People's observations are vague, but there are." According to Lehtola, it is possible that both the visor and the bow gate have failed. According to experts, five to ten waves are enough to throw so much water on an open car deck that the ship capsizes.
HS: "Estonian haaksirikon uhreja saattaa olla yli 900 Kukaan ei tiedä tarkkaan, kuinka monta matkustajaa laivassa oli Turman tutkijat epäilevät uppoamisen syyksi keulaportin pettämistäPenttinen Antti
30.9.1994 2:00"

If you recall, Bildt did, via the Swedish Marine Administration order all bow visors to be inspected on Day One and indeed, Silja Europa's was said to be defective. This was very clever crisis management as the world's press then concentrated on a Herald of Free Enterprise scenario and Sillaste was wheeled out, together with a schoolboy-aged-looking Kadak to push the 'water on the car deck' line (as though only wave impact could have made the visor vulnerable).

As for your other comments, not only are they desparate and utterly laughable (note: Estonian, Treu is at least 1.86m, so much for the hilarious claim it is racist to describe someone as 1.60m). The point being made was that a lowly third or fourth engineer was being presented as an expert as to the cause of a disaster in which one thousand died, when not only was he on Deck 0 the whole time, he only saw a vague monitor picture of water seeping in through the sides of a closed car ramp, and who claims he didn't leave the ship until 0130 and by climbing up the funnel straight into the sea, yet was fully survival suited and had his wallet, passport and warm clothing, ready to join Kadak, Treu and Linde, having also been on the upper deck handing out life jackets and 'calming people down'. He claims to have been on deck 0 fixing some passenger toilets and somehow ended up in the Engine
Control Room with Kadak and Treu 'up to their knees in water' (so he told Dagens Nyheter). I would suggest we cannot give much credibility to what Sillaste says, as Linde says he was on the life raft at 0120, even as Tammes was making a Mayday call.

As for you other claim, it really is a low blow. You have deliberately mispresented and misquoted my by quoting something I said on a History thread and out of context. Kindly supply the full context instead trying to make out I am somehow anti-Estonian, bearing in mind that when the Crusades took place, they were the Teutonic Knights (= what we today call German) whose aim was to protect pilgrims in the Holy Land and who then set out to convert pagans in Northern Europe to Christianity. They were aa military organisation of warrior monks whose Goddess of War was Mary, and they even named the region they set up in current day Latvia and Estonia after her ( Terra Mariana), so yes, they did indeed as a matter of fact perceive the Estonians and the Finns as pagans that needed to be converted. The las in Europe. The Estonians are the Finns distant cousins and linguists have even claimed Estonians are responsible for the notorious Turku dialect, having once shared a similar language some 2,500 years ago. Of course, today, Estonian and Finnish are not mutually understandable, albeit one can recognise many words and postpositions. However, Estonian has a strong low German influence and some Russian loan words and thus, it is no longer similarly constructed as the highly inflected Finnish language. So your claim it is racist to say the Crusaders looked down on the heathen masses of the 'last north Europeans' is scurrilous and misleading, as Finns, too were seen as bear meat, berry, herring and mushroom eaters, huddled around their saunas, practising polyandry and cannibalism (why not? Let's think the worst!).

By the way, you said Harkatie did not exist. This is for you.
 
Oh definitely, that's one reason why the wolf packs were so successful.

No, the Wolf Packs were devised precisely because they didn't know where the convoys were. The pack would form an extended patrol line and any boat contacting a convoy would call the other boats in to attack as a pack.

Off the US east coast though the U-Boats had a good time sitting on the shipping lines until it was realised that sailing scheduled routes day after day in wartime was a bad idea.

I am thinking of the regular Italian and Japanese supply runs that were intercepted by submarines
 
If nothing else, that proves one of the loonier ideas wrong: Panicked smugglers did not open the visor and ramp to push trucks overboard (while the ship was plunging headlong into heavy seas).

Think about it. Smuggling from Estonia, especially after Paldiski was decommissioned and the FSU army had to move out, was rife and di happen. So, imagine you are a smuggler and your consignment is worth €'000's, and word comes through, the cops are on to you. Opening the bow doors to get rid of a consignment will suddenly seem far more attractive than 12 years in a grim prison.
 
He claims to have been on deck 0 fixing some passenger toilets and somehow ended up in the Engine
Control Room

That was the System Engineer. He was called on duty at about 00:30 - 00:45 hrs by the third engineer due to vacuum problems and subsequent difficulties in emptying one of the toilets. Deck 0 is the machinery spaces, guess where the engine room is located? Where do you think the vacuum pumps and system are located? He wasn't in a cabin with a plunger, the problem was with the vacuum system that moves the 'black water' to discharge tanks.
It took about 20 to 25 minutes to find the cause of the vacuum problem and make the necessary repairs. He stayed in the engine room.

No one is claiming that an engineer was 'an expert as to the cause of a disaster'. They gave witness testimony as to their experience just like everyone else. They were however in a good position and with enough knowledge of the ship to know what contributed to the sinking. They were engineers, out of all the survivors they had the training and experience to know how their ship worked and it's condition.
 
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Think about it. Smuggling from Estonia, especially after Paldiski was decommissioned and the FSU army had to move out, was rife and di happen. So, imagine you are a smuggler and your consignment is worth €'000's, and word comes through, the cops are on to you. Opening the bow doors to get rid of a consignment will suddenly seem far more attractive than 12 years in a grim prison.

So are you dropping the claim that the visor was blown off by bombs and going back to smugglers somehow opening it up in the teeth of a storm?
 
I'm glad to see that you finally have understood what Bildt did.

  1. He specifically did not name the bow visor as the cause of the accident in a press conference or in a press release, instead he deferred to the JAIC.
  2. He did not instruct JAIC only to look at the Bow Visor.
  3. He was not the first to report about the Bow Visor - from what I've found so far, that was the news agency TT, while Bildt was on the plane to Finland.
  4. He did appoint the Government agency Statens Haverikommision (Swedish Accident Investigation Authority) for the JAIC.
  5. Then he (via his Minister of Transport) instructed the Swedish Maritime Administration to review Bow Visors at other ferries
.

Sources for the above - Analysgruppen, as has been linked if you go back to the quote from the previous iteration of the thread that I responded with in my previous post.

My thoughts on the last point: If I'm the Prime Minister, and got told that bow visor potentially had failed, causing a disaster, I would also ensure that the relevant authority acted immediately. It's a simple risk exercise:
  • If it was the bow visor, by acting I could potentially save lives.
  • It it was not the bow visor, by acting I've just caused some additional work for a government agency and some ferry operators.

Alternative scenario:

Chief of Military, Svensson: Er, Prime Minster, something terrible has happened.

Prime Minister: What now?

Svensson: Unfortunately, the KSI, who don't tell me anything, now tell me they had a consignment for the USA on that ferry -

PM: So what? Why are you telling me?

S: - Not just the US but ahem, the CIA, who ordered some former Soviet space technology and arms gear -

PM: <face palm> Don't tell me -

S: Yes, the Kremlin seems to have found out about it -

PM: We must make amends immediately, call a press conference, bring up the victims and give them a decent burial -

S: Sir, you are not understanding. POTUS Bill Clinton is demanding we classify it.

PM: Classify it? How? What are we going to tell the people?

S: Clinton says it is for the protection and safety of the West and his reputation as a Middle East Peace maker. Can't upset the Russians after getting them out of the Baltic countries -

PM: Oh dear. What shall I tell the press?

S: Might I suggest you say it was an accident of nature, Sir? An engineer says he saw water coming through the car ramp.

PM: Yes! That's it! Wheel him out for the TV cameras. It is another sad Herald of Free Enterprise accident.
 
Alternative scenario:

Chief of Military, Svensson: Er, Prime Minster, something terrible has happened.

Prime Minister: What now?

Svensson: Unfortunately, the KSI, who don't tell me anything, now tell me they had a consignment for the USA on that ferry -

PM: So what? Why are you telling me?

S: - Not just the US but ahem, the CIA, who ordered some former Soviet space technology and arms gear -

PM: <face palm> Don't tell me -

S: Yes, the Kremlin seems to have found out about it -

PM: We must make amends immediately, call a press conference, bring up the victims and give them a decent burial -

S: Sir, you are not understanding. POTUS Bill Clinton is demanding we classify it.

PM: Classify it? How? What are we going to tell the people?

S: Clinton says it is for the protection and safety of the West and his reputation as a Middle East Peace maker. Can't upset the Russians after getting them out of the Baltic countries -

PM: Oh dear. What shall I tell the press?

S: Might I suggest you say it was an accident of nature, Sir? An engineer says he saw water coming through the car ramp.

PM: Yes! That's it! Wheel him out for the TV cameras. It is another sad Herald of Free Enterprise accident.

Was this a dream you had?
 
The utterly ridiculous assertion that the Lusitania was sunk because it ran on time.

I have been lurking on this tread. Your bid to distract readers with trivial tangents, from your utter failure to provide a persuasive argument isn't working in your favor.
 
Hindsight is a fine thing.

I'm not pretending to be a better sailor than the captain. The point is the ship was pushed too hard and came to grief, and your repeated insistence that his contract gave him no choice seems to be something you just pulled from your fundament.
 
According to the JAIC the Atlantic lock failed first (when one wonders whether it was ever even locked at all, or even particularly needed) and this caused the other two locks, virtually at the same time, to also fail. Think about it. The two upper locks were not dependent on the bottom lock other than marginally (re bearing tension). When one wheel comes off a wagon, not all the other wheels come off the same time or even nanoseconds after. Yet the JAIC are asking us all to suspend credulity and just believe.

You pretty clearly have no clue what you're talking about, as evidenced by your analogy of the visor to the floppiness of a sheet of paper, as if that had some bearing on the strength of the 3 pins your paper was held up with.
 
and yet all the other ships in the area had slowed down and taken weather routing.

Any captain worth his rings should have been aware that the conditions warranted slowing down and even changing course.

Manuals of seamanship and navigation have entire chapters dedicated to how ships of different size and configuration should be handled in different conditions and how to recognise when action needs to be taken.

That the captain of the Estonia disregarded this is very telling.

He was only going onto his watch at 1258 (if you believe Linde to be a reliable witness) which was due to begin 0100. We don't know for a fact the ship was speeding. That is just a supposition by the JAIC as they didn't retrieve the navigation systems.
 
Let's imagine for argument's sake 'wave impact' caused the bow visor to fall off. The JAIC affirm it was the bottom lock that failed first, then the port and then the starboard.

An independent expert mechanical engineer specialist who has written literally hundreds of papers on machine tools, nuts and bolts, probably one of the foremost experts in Europe (not up to your standards, of course), Dr-Ing Hans-Werner Hoffmeister then of Hamburg Technical University caried out his own tests, as appointed by Meyer Werft, the shipbuilders of the vessel, and his wholly scientific results (= which means they are replicable under the same conditions) showed that in fact, the weakest link was the starboard locks, nuts and bolts, then the port and last of all, the bottom lock, and this is the sequence they would have failed had such a hypothetical force was exerted on the bow visor.

You have no idea how to compare the two analyses, nor why they differ, nor how significantly they differ. You just see a difference of opinion and trumpet it to the heavens as if it had vast significance.
 
What makes an expert in machine tools and nuts and bolts an expert in ship construction?
How did he test this?
Why does a difference in the failure sequence mean the bow didn't fail?
Doesn't his report confirm the failure of the visor locks?

It means the JAIC just cobbled together something that sounds vaguely plausible but didn't actually test its hypothesis. Well, of course, it knew all along it was just a story.
 
The ferries do not run under severe weather conditions. Obviously, if a ship is delayed by an unforeseen tornado or a hurricane, that won't draw any criticism from either the passengers or the management. Safety first.

Do you conceive that there may also be intermediate conditions where the ferries might be allowed to sail, yet have to take extra care over their particular route or their speed?
 
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