The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Jimbo07]

Thread continued from here.

Posted By: xjx388

Did they push or were they allowed? For example If ground is not good for defence then don't defend it,

The line I heard is that this is deliberate, and that Ukraine is trading ground for time.

The Ukrainians need to work on bleeding the Russians dry. Retaking territory is secondary to that. But the do need to still hold the Russians back.

This.

So long as Russia is in Ukraine, they can always counter attack. One small piece of land goes one way, then the other. Rather than occupying a particular piece of ground, Ukraine needs to degrade Russia's ability to wage war (not because I want them to, but because they'll literally never be free if they don't).

 

[Dr.Sid]

It might be time for Ukraine to invade Russia.

Not really. Major advantage of Ukraine is morale. That could change fast.

 

[Klimax]

Kharkiv, not Kherson. The Kherson front's been relatively stable, despite apparent efforts to change that from both sides.
...

How did I got Kherson tehre and not Kharkiv I don't now. It wasn't even recent topic.

I'm wondering if the additional arms and materiel that should flow from the US following their lend-lease act could make the difference in pushing back the Russians, or are there other factors apart from supply?

For example, Ukraine is reportedly losing fewer troops, and their morale and motivation are definitely higher than the Russians, but is it even remotely plausible for the Russians to persist until the Ukrainian forces are exhausted? They can throw a lot of fodder into this war, whereas Ukraine's population is a limited resource.

No. Phase 2 mobilization of Ukraine yielded about million of soldiers. First divisions should be already in Donbas. Compare that to Russian numbers.

 

[crescent]

Did they push or were they allowed? For example If ground is not good for defence then don't defend it, if your line has a 'bulge' then straighten it, if there is a natural defence line then move to it etc.
If we learned anything from WW2 it is that fighting blindly for every inch of ground is a waste of men and resources.

This is a big bulge into Ukrainian lines, putting the main supply route into Severtdoneskt under Russian artillery fire. This isn't Ukraine pulling out of a salient, this is Russia pushing a big one deep into Ukrainian territory.

Its true that Ukraine didn't contest those towns. It contested Popasna very hard though. There's a word used when enemy forces get past a strongly contested line and into an area where they face little resistance - breakout. It seems possible that Russia has broken through the line of Ukrainian defense and is now pushing forces through that gap.

Here's one person suggesting concern:

Should know more in the next 72 hours or so. If quickly continues its advance, will likely need to pull the majority of its forces out of Severnodonetsk. If not, there will be likely be a major fight for Bakhmut as both sides funnel remaining reserves into the area.

another:

POPSNA SALIENT /2045 UTC 20 MAY/ After weeks of relative quiet, in the last 48 hrs RU forces register & expand significant gains west of Popsna. UKR loss of the heights above of Trypillia Volodymyrivka will significantly hamper defensive operations.

NBC news:

the location of this advance is also important, he said, with the Russian forces now closer to encircling and cutting off the key city of Severodonetsk, the last major city under Ukrainian control in the Luhansk province — something they have been attempting to do for weeks, Horowitz said.

There is some genuinely worrisome news here.

 

[Craig4]

It might be time for Ukraine to invade Russia.

I would argue raid into Russia but not invade. Raids into Crimea wouldn't go amiss even though that's Ukrainian territory.

 

[Andy_Ross]

This is a big bulge into Ukrainian lines, putting the main supply route into Severtdoneskt under Russian artillery fire. This isn't Ukraine pulling out of a salient, this is Russia pushing a big one deep into Ukrainian territory.(

So the bulge is in the Russian lines and they advance in to uncontested terrain?

The 'declined centre' used effectively by Rommel against the 8th Army advance in 'Operation Crusader'

They are the ones with the over extended line ripe for encircling.

What I mean is every situation can be read two ways.

 

[Mike!]

So the bulge is in the Russian lines and they advance in to uncontested terrain?

The 'declined centre' used effectively by Rommel against the 8th Army advance in 'Operation Crusader'

They are the ones with the over extended line ripe for encircling. What I mean is every situation can be read two ways.

I honestly hope this is what they're doing. Let them advance then cut them off.

 

[SpitfireIX]

Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Even if the Russians do succeed in their current offensive, what next? They still won't be anywhere close to forcing Ukraine to surrender, but the Russian economy and the Russian Army will be that much closer to complete collapse.

It's not rational in any way. It's just to destroy as much of Ukraine as possible. And lives of peasants and rusty soviet vehicles are small price. The isolation is another thing, but that won't change any time soon, so why not destroy few more villages, till the peasants are completely depleted.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russia has declared victory in its months-long battle to conquer the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.

The last fighters defending the city's Azovstal steel plant have now surrendered, Moscow officials said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61529877

 

[a_unique_person]

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

 

[The Don]

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

Sadly, this.

 

[Klimax]

Current status per ISW:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1527858343745835009/photo/1

 

[Aridas]

How did I got Kherson tehre and not Kharkiv I don't now. It wasn't even recent topic.

The two are quite similar, though, and, for what it's worth, I had recently mentioned Kherson in the thread, I think. Incidentally, I find myself having to recheck myself with Melitopol and Mariupol most of the time when I want to name Melitopol. I've been trying to just avoid using the names of some of the actually repeated settlement names, too, because that can get really confusing, really quick.

There is some genuinely worrisome news here.

Indeed. We'll see how this plays out, either way.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

That's how wars work.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Moldova should be "equipped to Nato standard" to help it guard against the threat of a Russian invasion, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said.

She said it was clear that, despite limited success in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin retained "ambitions to create a greater Russia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61532625

 

[theprestige]

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

You don't say!

The point is that what's in range these days is a lot less than it used to be, a lot less than what Russia would like to be, and may well become even less in days to come.

 

[Doubt]

Russia, despite all it's failures, has more artillery that is relatively safe from the Ukrainian armed forces. They will keep doing what they do best, which is destroy anything that is in range. Civilians will pay the biggest price.

They are not safe. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian guns with drones. The speed at which that happens will increase since one of the things being sent to Ukraine is counter battery radar.

 

[Mike!]

They are not safe. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian guns with drones. The speed at which that happens will increase since one of the things being sent to Ukraine is counter battery radar.

I thought I heard/read they were also getting artillery with a greater range than the Russians are presently using against Ukraine.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I thought I heard/read they were also getting artillery with a greater range than the Russians are presently using against Ukraine.

Yes the US have sent 155mm Howitzers


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M777_howitzer