• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

The Roe Countdown

When will Roe v Wade be overturned

  • Before 31 December 2020

    Votes: 20 18.3%

  • Before 31 December 2022

    Votes: 27 24.8%

  • Before 31 December 2024

    Votes: 9 8.3%

  • SCOTUS will not pick a case up

    Votes: 16 14.7%

  • SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn

    Votes: 37 33.9%
  • Total voters
    109
Status
Not open for further replies.
angrysoba said:
I don't know.

But I don't think it comes down to integrity at all, but political strategizing.

For example, "states's rights" makes sense to a party that wants to pander to the evangelicals of the south, but also the more urbane (talking relatively, here) northerners.

If they pick up votes by banning abortions and gay marriage in the south, but allowing both in, say, northern states and Florida, then surely they are more likely to do that.
Click to expand...

"States rights" has always been a neo-Confederate buzzword that only means they don't want the federal government interfering with the state's ability to be as repressive as it wants. It wasn't like the south was out there protesting the fugitive slave act or anything.

A nationwide abortion ban would be on brand. It is probably inevitable because the GOP is going to need a way to keep using abortion to rile up the base and that's the obvious way to do it.

I mean, it would be hard to find Constitutional justification for such a ban as they'd need to connect it to interstate commerce, but I doubt the conservatives will still be concerned about the commerce clause being too broad.
 
Ziggurat said:
How relevant is that here? Blue states will keep abortion legal regardless of what the court says. Red states are only going to make it illegal where those laws are popular within the state.
Click to expand...

The same reason just having some states have slaves and others not was still a problem.
 
Ziggurat said:
How relevant is that here? Blue states will keep abortion legal regardless of what the court says. Red states are only going to make it illegal where those laws are popular within the state.
Click to expand...

...Uh, what? Have you seen the modern Republican party? Popular? What do they care about that?

With gerrymandering, disproportionate Senate representation, and our idiotic Electoral Vote/House Delegation Backup Vote system, it is entirely possible for a majority of voters nationwide to vote Democrat, and for Republicans to win a trifecta.

They will then vote for a nationwide abortion ban. Democrats will try to filibuster in the Senate, and the Republicans will respond by throwing out the filibuster. (The C-Span camera will briefly swing to Joe Manchin, and a sad trombone sound will play) And that's it for legal abortion in the US. Solid chance of it happening in 2025.

The modern Republican party is not about policy, it is about being the party in power, nothing more. Individual members are either true believers, or are willing to go along with the true believers for fear of being thrown out of the party. That's how authoritarian/fascist movements work.

It will all come crashing down on its own eventually, but it would do unimaginable damage in the meantime, so it is better to oppose them from the start.
 
Cue 30 pages of "Durrr show me where the Republicans aren't being honest, no the fact that they have never once been honest doesn't count."
 
Ziggurat said:
....Red states are only going to make it illegal where those laws are popular within the state.
Click to expand...

I have serious doubts about that. It's a "majority of the majority" thing - they'll pass the laws if the law has the support of the majority of the people in the majority party. Party-line discipline will ensure that.

So my guess is that Republican-led states that have not yet outlawed abortion will do so now - even if that's unpopular with the governed. The GOP has been working too long towards this goal to go any other way.

Later, there may be some backtracking, but probably only after the usual tragedies get well documented. A few women will need to die from ectopic pregnancies or in childbirth. A few conservative legislators, judges, and ministers will need to see their wives, daughters, and mistresses prosecuted for getting abortions and be prosecuted themselves for helping to obtain them.

Then they'll backtrack. But not before then. They've spent too long digging this hole to think about getting out of it regardless of what the people who elected them actually think. Too much momentum for reality to have any impact yet.
 
Last edited:
Random said:
They will then vote for a nationwide abortion ban. Democrats will try to filibuster in the Senate, and the Republicans will respond by throwing out the filibuster. (The C-Span camera will briefly swing to Joe Manchin, and a sad trombone sound will play) And that's it for legal abortion in the US. Solid chance of it happening in 2025.
Click to expand...

Not really.
 
crescent said:
I have serious doubts about that. It's a "majority of the majority" thing - they'll pass the laws if the law has the support of the majority of the people in the majority party. Party-line discipline will ensure that.

So my guess is that Republican-led states that have not yet outlawed abortion will do so now - even if that's unpopular with the governed. The GOP has been working too long towards this goal to go any other way.

Later, there may be some backtracking, but probably only after the usual tragedies get well documented. A few women will need to die from ectopic pregnancies or in childbirth. A few conservative legislators, judges, and ministers will need to see their wives, daughters, and mistresses prosecuted for getting abortions and be prosecuted themselves for helping to obtain them.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. Those with power, money influence or any combination of the three will continue to be able to secure safe abortions should the need arise. :mad:

crescent said:
Then they'll backtrack. But not before then. They've spent too long digging this hole to think about getting out of it regardless of what the people who elected them actually think. Too much momentum for reality to have any impact yet.
Click to expand...

I doubt they'll backtrack. If anyone points out their hypocrisy then they'll simply deny that they ever secured an abortion - either there was no abortion or the woman did it without their knowledge - or distract by jangling some keys somewhere.
 
Meanwhile, Susan Collins is urgently working on her "concerned" face, as she is totally shocked that Drunky McRapeface (whom she voted to confirm), might have actually LIED to her over abortion rights.
 
I wonder if the "Second Amendment" people can do something about the anti-abortion judges on the supreme court.

(And by that I mean show how to rally popular opinion. Isn't that the way its done? Bring up the second amendment then claim "Oh I didn't actually suggest violence".)
 
Suddenly said:
There is an interesting and compelling case to be made that in the Civil War it was the union that were the rebels rather than the confederacy.
Click to expand...

Except for all the stuff about actually rebelling and starting a war and so on that the south so clearly did. And they did firmly refute that idea that all men were created equal so there is that as well.
 
Shalamar said:
"It's only wrong when Liberals do it."

Conservatives want one party conservative rule.
Click to expand...

True as evidence by all the doctors who got murdered by angry pregnant women because they wouldn't give them an abortion which stands at... *checks notes* none.

Every Republican Accusation is a Confession.
 
It's pretty wild that the conservatives have finally realized a multi-decade political project (against all odds) and all they can do is complain about somebody didn't follow the clubhouse rules when leaking this decision.

These ghouls will never be happy. They're snatching away the rights of millions of people and they can't help but cry about how they're the real victims because someone tattled.

No matter how bad things get and how much they get their way, it will never be enough.
 
I would add that I suspect Griswold will be the first to fall after Roe, because it's based on the same issue of privacy, and because birth control is firmly in the radar of those who are agitating against abortion. Some persons such as Warp12 have the idea that they can support one thing without the other, and so they themselves can, but I think it's a pipe dream to believe the politicians in charge are not going to continue in the direction they've made clear they're heading, and history suggests that a sizeable portion of the supporters of one thing will settle for the other, rationalizing the collateral damage.

Loving and Obergefell have a different basis, so I think that although they're almost certain to be attacked too, it will be a different battle, and though I cannot think of anti-miscegenation laws as anything but utterly loathsome and worthy of absolute contempt and calumny, it would not surprise me very much if the ever-drainward spiral of Republican thought takes the party there.

Let the bible waving bloviators explain how interracial rights are an unfortunate victim of the righteous need to keep marriage safe from the godless gay brigades and their gadarene groupies will leap as one, yelling "we had to, we had to." Every right you kill and bury is labelled a new kind of freedom if you wrap it in a flag.
 
Again the Right has literally no use for the kind of argumentative and moral consistently the Left is (at times overly) slavish toward. It won't bother them in the least that they have a half dozen different, contradicting, vague, and shifting reasons for doing anything.
 
Delphic Oracle said:
"If the Constitution doesn't explicitly grant you a given right, you are in fact forbidden that behavior" is a frightening interpretation.
Click to expand...

I think a more proper construct would be: “If the Constitution doesn't explicitly grant you a given right, then any individual state may choose to criminalize that behavior".
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom