The Roe Countdown

[PhantomWolf]

Don't know, both Kavanaugh and Gorsuch have surprised me recently by coming down on the Liberal side of cases. In fact up to now, Kavanaugh seems to have been playing the game as a strict Constitutionist. He might surprise both sides.

Just in case people want proof, here are two cases in which the Supreme Court found against Trump recently. Kavanaugh wrote a concurring opinion in one case and signed on to the majority to the other, while Gorsuch signed on to the concurring Kavanaugh opinion on one and signed onto the majority opinion on the other alone with Kavanaugh.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Aside: Bad idea, actually. Move a few jobs that require an education into, say, five pure Red states, and you can swing the electoral college toward civilized policies. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas could all be swung with little effort. The alternative is "By 2040, two-thirds of Americans will be represented by 30 percent of the Senate"

Time to invade them there backwaters and teach 'em some modrin notions, by golly, or it'll be pitchforks and lynch mobs for government.

Disagree - that'S what we tried with Afghanistan (and yes, I'm comparing Red States with Afghanistan).

Instead, we should drain them of all their brain power, take their best and brightest, let them get wealthy elsewhere and then let them come home and force change they learned in the Blue States through might of pocketbook.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Disagree - that'S what we tried with Afghanistan (and yes, I'm comparing Red States with Afghanistan).

Instead, we should drain them of all their brain power, take their best and brightest, let them get wealthy elsewhere and then let them come home and force change they learned in the Blue States through might of pocketbook.

Problem is, nobody in their right mind seems to return to a Red state unless enamored of its culture, or now retiring and getting cranky-scared-Republican. Nevertheless, agreed, my thinking is wishful in terms of getting people/business to move to Red states.

Best move in this regard was transferring the Dept of Agriculture to the boonies (thanks, Donnie!). Might be best to transfer all major executive agencies to empty states, as this would eventually lead to a better balance and higher level of basic education in the area.

 

[Orphia Nay]

The Satanic Temple [TST] are appealing to the US Supreme Court on the Missouri decision in their Jane Doe case.

https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/web-view

The lawsuit was filed when TST member Judy Doe sought to terminate her pregnancy in the state of Missouri. She was faced with legal requirements that contravene her religious beliefs and were not medically necessary. Missouri mandated that she receive literature that asserts that abortion terminates the life of a separate, unique, living human being, and she was required to endure a three-day waiting period designed to instill guilt and shame for her decision.

TST claimed that the mandatory reading materials violate TST’s deeply-held beliefs of bodily autonomy and scientifically-reasoned personal choice. TST argued that this created an "undue burden" and violated Doe's right to free exercise of religion. Although the Court openly acknowledged that those issues were raised, the Court said that those claims were not explicitly alleged in the initial complaint. No legal precedent exists to support their evasion, and the history of jurisprudence demonstrates that decisions are made based on the merits of a case.

"Bolding mine". Note, TST is listed as "the only federally recognized international (non-theistic) religious Satanic organization". They are tax-exempt for religious purposes.

Their tenets are on this page: https://thesatanictemple.com/

 

[The Great Zaganza]

yep, it's another lawsuit to demonstrate that what SCOTUS means with Freedom of Religion is the Freedom of Christianity but none of the others.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I think the premise is a bit flawed. It's entirely possible that Roe will be outright overtruned by our new 6-3 court of Federalist society ghouls, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome.

Such people are more likely to just totally undercut Roe while still leaving it standing. They'll take cases like those we have already seen that make running abortion clinics technically impossible due to insurmountable red tape. Red states will regulate clinics out of existence, add burdens to patients such as waiting periods and fetus funerals, and generally shorten the window in which pregnancies can be terminated. Roe will remain the law of the land by letter, but will be dead in many states in practice.

It's possible the conservatives go for the 100% destruction by overturning, but I suspect they'll settle for a strategic victory of simply making it toothless through a series of undermining challenges, while still maintaining the appearance of respecting precedent.

 

[lionking]

The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion.

To which the blue states respond by strengthening medical privacy laws to make it illegal (if it's not already) to provide any information or cooperate with any investigation of whether an abortion was performed.

To which the Federal government responds with threats of funding cuts.

And so it goes.

I hate what many republicans want to do to outlaw abortion, but is this scenario even possible, let alone practical? How can it even be proven that one is travelling to another state to obtain an abortion?

 

[Myriad]

I hate what many republicans want to do to outlaw abortion, but is this scenario even possible, let alone practical? How can it even be proven that one is travelling to another state to obtain an abortion?

If everyone involved exercised due discretion, it would be extremely difficult to prove. Hence, the role of privacy laws in my scenario.

On the other hand, due discretion might not be a reasonable expectation nowadays. "Curses, I would have got away with it if only those meddling investigators hadn't read my Facebook timeline!"

The real problem in such a scenario wouldn't be actual prosecutions for illegal travel for out of state abortions. Sure, there would be a couple of show trials where the guy and his rich parents, sob sob, really wanted the child and would gladly have adopted it or paid all the support expenses and so forth, and the woman unwisely returned home afterward instead of staying in the state where the abortion was done. But the main issue would be much larger numbers of underage pregnant girls forced into various involuntary custodial arrangements (with their parents' or state guardians' consent, not their own) on the basis of preventing such things from happening.

Women's aid organizations would resort to underground railroad tactics, which would be libeled as "trafficking." Worst of all, actual traffickers would take advantage too.

You don't need any convictions for breaking the actual law, for the prevention and enforcement efforts surrounding it to create a total **** show.

 

[JoeMorgue]

They won't overturn Roe Vs Wade. No point and not worth the backlash.

Yes anti-abortion zealots who actually want abortion actually gone are a huge part of their base, but for the Republicans that means the specter of Evil Dems support Baby Killing is more useful than the topic being resolved, even in their favor.

They'll continue their standard "Death of a thousand cuts" on abortion, making women jump through more and more hoops, putting more and more restrictions on it.

 

[lionking]

I would like to think that liberal democracies around the world would have common opinions about things like access to abortions, yet this seems to not be the case. While there are no doubt methodological problems with surveys from country to country, it seems that 80% of Australians believe in the right of women to choose to have an abortion in all cases. This drops to 38% in the UK and 30% in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_attitudes_towards_abortion#Europe

 

[JoeMorgue]

The the whole "I support abortions.... but" thing is just hair splitting, egged on by anti-abortion activists making up insane nightmare scenarios so far outside the statistical realm of anything actually happening as to be functionally equal to worrying about transporter accidents.

 

[lionking]

The the whole "I support abortions.... but" thing is just hair splitting, egged on by anti-abortion activists making up insane nightmare scenarios so far outside the statistical realm of anything actually happening as to be functionally equal to worrying about transporter accidents.

Sure, but why do some countries buy the nightmare scenarios and others don’t? Australia has a lot of religious nuts, but they don’t hold sway.

I’m probably derailing this thread, but I’m really curious why Roe vs Wade is so divisive in the US.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Sure, but why do some countries buy the nightmare scenarios and others don’t? Australia has a lot of religious nuts, but they don’t hold sway.

I’m probably derailing this thread, but I’m really curious why Roe vs Wade is so divisive in the US.

Because in Australia, the UK, other vaguely comparable Western style secular democracies... you guys don't have anything directly comparable to the United State's "Religious Right" and I'm not sure if I can even properly explain it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_right

 

[lionking]

Because in Australia, the UK, other vaguely comparable Western style secular democracies... you guys don't have anything directly comparable to the United State's "Religious Right" and I'm not sure if I can even properly explain it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_right

It’s still puzzling. Abortion is not, never has been and never will be an election issue in Australia. I know it is in the US.....

 

[Suddenly]

I hate what many republicans want to do to outlaw abortion, but is this scenario even possible, let alone practical? How can it even be proven that one is travelling to another state to obtain an abortion?

The real practical effect is that they will make it explicit that anyone assisting a person crossing state lines for an abortion is likewise guilty, and then good luck finding a provider that will accept anyone that can't prove residence.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

They will overturn Roe, just so they can say they did.
They might replace it with something indistinguishable, but Roe has to go to placate the people they whipped into a frenzy about this single ruling.

 

[AnonyMoose]

I expect the witch burnings to begin soon after Trump's re-election.

RIP Ruth. Unfortunately your entire life's work and service to your country will be pissed away in one fell swoop of a republican pen.

And thus, I end my post with: RIP USA

 

[cosmicaug]

Trump talked with Amy Comey today.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/21/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court/index.html

 

[cosmicaug]

It’s still puzzling. Abortion is not, never has been and never will be an election issue in Australia. I know it is in the US.....

It should be pointed out that it also wasn't a Christian concern in the USA (other than with some Catholics) until it was.

 

[angrysoba]

They won't overturn Roe Vs Wade. No point and not worth the backlash.

Yes anti-abortion zealots who actually want abortion actually gone are a huge part of their base, but for the Republicans that means the specter of Evil Dems support Baby Killing is more useful than the topic being resolved, even in their favor.

They'll continue their standard "Death of a thousand cuts" on abortion, making women jump through more and more hoops, putting more and more restrictions on it.

I agree. Much of the anti-abortion policy is about cornering the religious right vote. But it isn’t the entirety of their vote and there are plenty of Republicans who would see it as too extreme to put a federal ban on abortion.

Besides, even the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices are not reliably going to switch to banning abortions if they had supported it in the past.