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The Roe Countdown

When will Roe v Wade be overturned

  • Before 31 December 2020

    Votes: 20 18.3%

  • Before 31 December 2022

    Votes: 27 24.8%

  • Before 31 December 2024

    Votes: 9 8.3%

  • SCOTUS will not pick a case up

    Votes: 16 14.7%

  • SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn

    Votes: 37 33.9%
  • Total voters
    109
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Robin said:
And that fact alone will deliver Trump a new term.
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That and the fact that SCOTUS has ruled that gerrymandering is legal. White Evangelical voters turned out in record numbers in 2016, 81%, up from a previous high of around 64%, and all for Trump. With Roe v. Wade and quite likely another seat on the bench up for grabs, the Dems need someone pretty damned charismatic and motivating to get the votes needed to prevent another four years of Trump. With Biden currently leading in the primary run-up... yeah, no. We're screwed.
 
Gone are the days when Roe v Wade was considered settled law. Not that it should ever have been considered settled law. So I guess the best thing to do is appreciate it lasting as long as it did, and pragmatically getting on with the Great Work now that the era has ended.
 
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8enotto said:
Drugs are illegal, people seek illegal drugs.
Abortion is illegal, costly and discrete abortions will forever go unreported.

Changing a law won't change what people desire.
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Pot is federally illegal and states ignore that. Hell I work at a place that grows and sells it and I have a badge from the police department that says I'm legal to do so.

They also ignore laws about illegal immigration and declare themselves sanctuary states.

Seems like states can do whatever they want nowadays.

But ya, Republicans are frickin' weird when it comes to appeasing the religious right. As if they all live like Jesus and go home and pray really hard for a better world :rolleyes:
 
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
 
I see that I voted for "Before 31 December 2020" in the poll.

It looks like it probably won't be overturned before then. I don't know if there is any direct challenge to Roe that could possibly make it before the Supreme Court before the end of the year. However, the "Before 31 December 2022" option is now looking like a very real possibility. Regardless of who is elected, assuming Trump gets his nominee confirmed.

I'm still not totally sure that it's a done deal though, even though both Trump and McConnell have signaled that they plan to fill the seat ASAP. If 4 GOP senators vote no, (and of course all Democrats too) then Trump won't be able to fill the seat. But boy are they going to be under a lot of pressure to go along.
 
It's my understanding that Roe v Wade succeeded because the Texas anti-abortion laws breached the 14th Amendment.

It's also my understanding that the 14th Amendment is an antiquated mess.

http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/education/all_amendments_usconst.htm

Section 2 reads:

"Section 2.
Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age,* and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State."


Now, being the annoyingly eternal optimist that I am, I have an idea that there might be new laws set in place with precedents that are actually better than the Roe v Wade decision and less subject to the removal of a woman's bodily autonomy.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
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I have no doubt that after overturning Roe the upcoming 6-3 court will just go ahead and find a way to outlaw abortion in the blue states as well.
 
Trebuchet said:
I have no doubt that after overturning Roe the upcoming 6-3 court will just go ahead and find a way to outlaw abortion in the blue states as well.
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The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion.

To which the blue states respond by strengthening medical privacy laws to make it illegal (if it's not already) to provide any information or cooperate with any investigation of whether an abortion was performed.

To which the Federal government responds with threats of funding cuts.

And so it goes.
 
Myriad said:
The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion.
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There's already the case of the crazy Texan rep who wanted to use the death penalty for attempting to do just that.

I said when Trump was elected it looked like a case of USA and ISIS having a contest to see who can turn the clock back furthest. USA seems to be taking it pretty seriously.
 
The Atheist said:
There's already the case of the crazy Texan rep who wanted to use the death penalty for attempting to do just that.



I said when Trump was elected it looked like a case of USA and ISIS having a contest to see who can turn the clock back furthest. USA seems to be taking it pretty seriously.
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The upcoming SCOTUS will be just fine wit that.
 
Trebuchet said:
The upcoming SCOTUS will be just fine wit that.
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Don't know, both Kavanaugh and Gorsuch have surprised me recently by coming down on the Liberal side of cases. In fact up to now, Kavanaugh seems to have been playing the game as a strict Constitutionist. He might surprise both sides.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
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Aside: Bad idea, actually. Move a few jobs that require an education into, say, five pure Red states, and you can swing the electoral college toward civilized policies. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas could all be swung with little effort. The alternative is "By 2040, two-thirds of Americans will be represented by 30 percent of the Senate"

Time to invade them there backwaters and teach 'em some modrin notions, by golly, or it'll be pitchforks and lynch mobs for government.
 
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