ok. Dems have 80 more seats than the GOP. i still don't think they will lose them all. half of them? perhaps. even 3/4. but not all.
the reconciliation or "fixes" package
- Thread starter JoeTheJuggler
- Start date
ok. Dems have 80 more seats than the GOP. i still don't think they will lose them all. half of them? perhaps. even 3/4. but not all.
So 41 net Democratic losses to lose the House? I'll look into past swings and see how often it has happened.
Edit: 7 of the last 19 midterm elections have seen swings of more than 80 (adding losses by one party to gains by the other). At least I think that's what the numbers mean. It says number of seats lost by the President's party. The largest was 1938, when the Democrats lost 71 seats, for a swing of 142. So based purely on historical precedent, you have a slight edge. Of course, that's not a good way of predicting what will happen this November.
I tend to think things work best when at least one house of Congress is controlled by the party that does not control the White House. It forces both sides to be less partisan.
Last edited:
Today's House has 253 Democrats and 177 Republicans.
will the Dems lose all 38 seats? err...um...it all depends on what happens the next 8 months...and that's a whooole lot of time for Obama to work his PR machine.
and if the Tea-Baggers, Birthers, and regular GOPers keep on making horse's asses of themselves, Obama's PR machine will win the day.
Last edited:
Loss Leader
I would save the receptionist., Moderator
Unless the interwebs lie, 48 Democrats represent districts won by McCain in 2008. It'll be close, I think.
hmm....i honestly believe that folks tend to vote more on their beliefs, when it comes to their Congressman, and more on personality and current politics, when it comes to Presidents.
but it indeed should be close.
Interesting theory. You may be on to something. It'll depend on who turns out in greater numbers, though. The Republican base is pissed. The question will be how energized the Democratic voters are. Independents matter more in presidential election years than in midterm years. Energizing your base wins midterms, where turnout is lower.
JoeTheJuggler
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2006
- Messages
- 27,766
And they've pledged to use every parliamentary tool available to stop it. It began with a fury today. But they lack the votes to stop it.
Still, I'm kind of surprised. They know it will pass, and it makes it easy to say things like, "Senator So-and-So voted against amending the Democratic healthcare plan to remove Nebraska's sweetheart deal". Or "Sen. Fiscal Responsibility voted against a measure that decreased the federal deficit by $20 billion on-budget over the next ten years."
JoeTheJuggler
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2006
- Messages
- 27,766
Yup--the only amendments the Senate passed were a couple of minor provisions in the student loan stuff.
I think people really lost sight of how overwhelming the Democrats' Senate majority is--even if it's not enough to stop a filibuster.
I think people really lost sight of how overwhelming the Democrats' Senate majority is--even if it's not enough to stop a filibuster.