The Real Big Election... Canada!

[Gord_in_Toronto]

I herewith predict the following. Posters in Jref will be heavily against Harper. Everyone I know in Ontario (at least) will speak contemptuously of Harper. In fact, it will appear as though all of Canada hates Harper.

Harper wins.

My guess is that this is a Canadian version of the Tom Bradley Effect, only without racial overtones. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

That is, many of those busy complaining about Harper will actually vote for him, for reasons of their own which they do not wish to reveal.

IMHO historically this has not happened. The vote in Ontario will be heavily for the Liberals. All Dion has to do is to promise the province something . . . anything. Harper has to address his record of perceived anti-Central Canadianism and it's too late to do it without screwing himself in knots.

Québéc will go mostly Liberal and Bloc Québécois. Alberta with its 28 seats can vote 100% for the PCs and it makes little difference. The decision is made in Ontario and Québéc.

YMMV.

 

[FreshHat]

Alberta with its 28 seats can vote 100% for the PCs and it makes little difference.

...a point of clarification...

The national Progressive Conservative (PC) party no longer exists, ever since their last leader, Peter MacKay, folded them into the Reform Party, and handed the reins over to Stephen Harper , who succeeded Reform's leadership from Preston Manning.

The resulting union was named the "Conservative Party", although it was very briefly known as the "Conservative Reform Alliance Party", until one of their sharper tacks realised the acronym was CRAP. (I'm not making this up.)

MacKay campaigned for the PC leadership saying that he wouldn't merge with Reform.

That makes him a liar, in my books.

 

[Madalch]

MacKay campaigned for the PC leadership saying that he wouldn't merge with Reform.

That makes him a liar, in my books.

Did this really surprise anyone but David Whotsisname?

Bah- there's a reason I left Alberta.

 

[Jimbo07]

Bah- there's a reason I left Alberta.

Speaking of...

There is absolutely no impact or dent my vote can make in the Conservative MP's chances in my area. Now I have to carefully consider how to spend my otherwise useless vote...

 

[SDC]

Here in Alberta all the people complaining about Harper can meet in my living room.

Thanks, but that leads to two possible interpretations.

1/ Everyone is complaining about Harper in Alberta and you have an enormous living room.

2/ Hardly anyone is complaining about Harper in Alberta, and you have an ordinary sized living room which will fit all the complainers.

I assume it's #2, which makes me think that maybe, just maybe, Ontario is not all Canada, and Quebec is not the only regionally-based argument going on.

I'm kind of following up on a thread I started a while ago. The theme was that I hear nothing but complaints about Maggie Thatcher from people in the UK (either here, or people I know outside Jref); and I hear nothing but contempt for Harper from Canadians (again either here, or people I know). Yet Thatcher kept getting elected (as for Harper, I've already made my prediction).

My guess was a kind of Tom Bradley effect, with people embarrassed to admit they've voted for Thatcher's party, or the Canadian equivalent. Why they should be embarrassed I couldn't say.

And of course I'm frequently wrong. Ask my family.

 

[Jimbo07]

I'm kind of following up on a thread I started a while ago. The theme was that I hear nothing but complaints about Maggie Thatcher from people in the UK (either here, or people I know outside Jref); and I hear nothing but contempt for Harper from Canadians (again either here, or people I know). Yet Thatcher kept getting elected (as for Harper, I've already made my prediction).

Again, because of the multi-party parliamentary system, it is quite reasonable that a majority of posters will be anti-Our Good Buddy Steve , and yet, he can win the election. In fact, his support continues to hover between the 30-35% range, so clearly, his party is only supported by a marked minority of Canadians. He can still form a government, even if only 35% of cast votes support him, if he still gains more seats than any one of the other parties!

And yes, Alberta has a somewhat unique politics. The provincial government has functioned for years as a virtual one-party system!

 

[gmanontario]

And yes, Alberta has a somewhat unique politics. The provincial government has functioned for years as a virtual one-party system!

Ontario spent 40 or so years as a virtual one-party state (Conservatives). Nothing they could say or do would make them lose until the 80's when people finally got fed up with tyrants like Bill Davis.

The vote here in Ontario will be liberal for sure no matter how much Dion goofs things up. He'll promise us something that will be outrageously expensive, appeal to the GTA only and ignore the rest of the province. Typical Lib in action

Looks like it's time to vote for Mr Nun O'Theabove.

(No not really, I haven't decided)

 

[Horatius]

I'm kind of following up on a thread I started a while ago. The theme was that I hear nothing but complaints about Maggie Thatcher from people in the UK (either here, or people I know outside Jref); and I hear nothing but contempt for Harper from Canadians (again either here, or people I know). Yet Thatcher kept getting elected (as for Harper, I've already made my prediction).

Ontario spent 40 or so years as a virtual one-party state (Conservatives). Nothing they could say or do would make them lose until the 80's when people finally got fed up with tyrants like Bill Davis.

The vote here in Ontario will be liberal for sure no matter how much Dion goofs things up. He'll promise us something that will be outrageously expensive, appeal to the GTA only and ignore the rest of the province. Typical Lib in action

Looks like it's time to vote for Mr Nun O'Theabove.

The above post from gman explains part of it: A lot of people voted Conservative in the last election because that wanted to kick out the Liberals, and the Conservatives were the only other party with a realistic chance of winning.

I voted strategically last time to produce the minority situation we have currently, on the theory that a little taste of power, without enough power to actually get anything done, might convince the Conservatives to get their heads out of their asses. Alas, the opposition parties have been such wimps that the Conservatives haven't actually felt that much pain....

So, should I vote Throw The Bastards Out Party, or The Liberals Are Still Corrupt, Smug Jerks Party? Or maybe I'll go with Doesn't Have A Chance In Hell Party this time.



And I got one of those phone calls from the Conservative party too. I went out of my way to be as undecided as possible, just to keep them on their toes!

 

[Damien Evans]

I'm curious Jimbo07, why do you keep calling him "Our Good Buddy Steve "?

 

[Horatius]

I'm curious Jimbo07, why do you keep calling him "Our Good Buddy Steve "?

Standard Throw the Bastards Out Party Propaganda.

 

[Jimbo07]

I'm curious Jimbo07, why do you keep calling him "Our Good Buddy Steve "?

For a number of reasons:
- I'm trying to plant an idea that he wants one image, but projects another.
- It goes against this whole radical conservative thing from the States which prizes down-home personality over intelligent policy (the idea was that George Bush was someone who people would have over for dinner, and Harper got along with Bush)..
- The smiley is cute.
- Specifically: Harper had an image of not being amenable to the public, so the Conservatives went out on a campaign to make him more likable by getting him out to pancake breakfasts and such, last time.
- The "local buddy" image really stuck from other Conservatives, such as Stockwell Day riding a jet ski.
- In Alberta, the Conservatives supposedly "get us", not like those effeminate, elite, power-hungry, corrupt, academic Ontario-centric Liberals...
- Etc.

ETA

Standard Throw the Bastards Out Party Propaganda.

I've already stated my ABC voting strategy... that still leaves me with three "parties" to choose from:
- WE WENT FROM CANADA'S NATURAL RULING PARTY TO SO WEAK WE'RE CONSERVATIVE ENABLERS party
- DOESN'T HAVE A CHANCE IN HELL party
- DOESN'T HAVE A GREATER CHANCE IN HELL SINGLE-ISSUE party

I'm depressed...

 

[SDC]

Youse Canadian folks certainly have fun names for your political parties (judging from at least Horatius' posts.) Ours are BORING.

 

[Damien Evans]

For a number of reasons:
- I'm trying to plant an idea that he wants one image, but projects another.
- It goes against this whole radical conservative thing from the States which prizes down-home personality over intelligent policy (the idea was that George Bush was someone who people would have over for dinner, and Harper got along with Bush)..
- The smiley is cute.
- Specifically: Harper had an image of not being amenable to the public, so the Conservatives went out on a campaign to make him more likable by getting him out to pancake breakfasts and such, last time.
- The "local buddy" image really stuck from other Conservatives, such as Stockwell Day riding a jet ski.
- In Alberta, the Conservatives supposedly "get us", not like those effeminate, elite, power-hungry, corrupt, academic Ontario-centric Liberals...
- Etc.

Gotcha. Pretty much the same reason I sarcastically use Kevin07.

 

[Horatius]

Youse Canadian folks certainly have fun names for your political parties (judging from at least Horatius' posts.) Ours are BORING.

The nice thing is, no matter who is actually in power, Throw The Bastards Out Party is always a good vote!

 

[Jimbo07]

Youse Canadian folks certainly have fun names for your political parties (judging from at least Horatius' posts.) Ours are BORING.

Yes, your parties are boring, but by comparison, your elections are interesting!

 

[Damien Evans]

Youse Canadian folks certainly have fun names for your political parties (judging from at least Horatius' posts.) Ours are BORING.

Ours are pretty entertaining down here too.

We have our conservative party: The Liberal Party. That's always good for confusing people.
Then we have the left leaning of the majors: The Australian Labor Party, despite it being spelled Labour over here.
The National Party: Liberals rural buddies.
One Nation Party: A minority hick white supremacist party.
The Greens: pretty much what they are.
Family First: A christian conservative party.
Socialist Alliance: AKA the anti-american party.
Democratic Labor Party: A splinter group of the Labor party that was born from a belief that Labor was run by commies.
The shooters party: They ain't lying.
The Fishing Party: Slogan: "I fish, I vote"

The rest are even more screwy than that.

 

[Jimbo07]

Ours are pretty entertaining down here too.

We have our conservative party:

...

"I fish, I vote"

The rest are even more screwy than that.

How many of them are actually viable/capable of forming a national government? Here, although we have four national parties and the regionally significant Bloc Quebecois, only two are really capable of forming a government with the third playing spoiler with a decent number of seats.

 

[Damien Evans]

How many of them are actually viable/capable of forming a national government? Here, although we have four national parties and the regionally significant Bloc Quebecois, only two are really capable of forming a government with the third playing spoiler with a decent number of seats.

Labor are currently in Government, And the Liberal/Nation coalition is in opposition. They are the only parties capable of forming government, though the Greens are increasing their vote gradually and currently hold the balance of power in the senate. They're the four major parties currently, though Family First does have one seat in the senate as well. Oh, and there's Bob Katter, a very strange and very popular Queensland MP

 

[Jimbo07]

Okay, you've raised a good point. For anyone interested, the current composition of the Canadian House of Commons (the elected portion of Parliament) is:

Conservative Party 127
Liberal Party 95
Bloc Québécois 48
New Democratic Party 30
Green Party 1
Independent 3
Vacant 4
Total: 308

The Senate (the appointed portion, save the Governor General):

Conservative Party 22
Liberal Party 59
Progressive Conservative Party 3
Independent New Democratic Party 1
Independent 4
Non-Aligned 1
Vacant 15
Total: 105

So, the Conservative and Liberal Parties are really the two to contend with. In Quebec, there is the Bloc and the NDP across the country, with a mish-mash of all the rest.

ETA: I'm currently leaning toward voting for the Vacant Party

 

[Madalch]

Ours are pretty entertaining down here too.

We have our conservative party: The Liberal Party. That's always good for confusing people.

Canadian Liberal parties tend to be middle of the road, but not whatever the other major party is. In Alberta, the main party is the Conservatives (who have been in power for thirty years), so the Liberal party leans left. In BC, the other main party is the NDP, so the Liberal party is very strongly right-wing.