The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread

[Planigale]

Ever heard of bikini chicks?!

Sand castles!

 

[marting]

This should be better than the CA tests since the case rate in NY is over 10x higher.

https://news.trust.org/item/20200419170324-oxcs7

To get a baseline of how many people were infected with the novel coronavirus, Cuomo said the state would do the most aggressive anti-body testing in the nation in the next week using a random sample.

New York will test 2,000 people a day or 14,000 per week out of the 19 million residents in the state

 

[The Atheist]

I have been thinking.
These cases like the choir, where 45 of 60 were receptors, yet it is unlikely more than one came with the virus, did the lungs absorb and transmit on an industrial scale?
Similarly at dinner parties, weddings and crowded bars.

One infector, but major recycling in one 2 hour session in enclosed space.

All it takes is one person breathing over the buffet - or in the case of the choir - a plate of oranges, and bingo, many people get infected.

How is NYC still getting upwards of 5000 cases per day? I got called out a lot for posting pictures of way too many people way too crowded together on subways still over the last week.

lots of claims of "essential"

I don't buy it. I think hard choices have to be made. I know I certainly had to shut my business down here and we are nowhere near that packed

I see lots of pictures and videos of people still, unmasked hanging out partying together

For those who think that every single new yorker is practicing perfect social distancing, staying at home if they are non essential and not congregating unnecessarily, how do you explain so many cases still being added every day?

You could ask the same about Italy & Spain, and in Spain, you can't even leave your property.

I think two factors are in play:

1 - the sheer number of infections means people are still catching it and giving to their families & workmates, and in the case of New Yorkers, commuters.

2 - spreading while pre- or asymptomatic. People are stupid, and if only 5% of people aren't actively distancing, that's almost a million people in NY state, so small increments become large numbers.

 

[The Atheist]

I see the world infection curve has levelled off as OECD countries flatten their curves.

The trouble is, it's now seriously loose in developing nations and it's clear they will be missing an enormous number of cases.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Early on, Cuomo started using their own tests outside of the CDC tests.

Business Insider march 20: A mix-and-match coronavirus-testing strategy has allowed New York to screen 32,000 people — far more than any other state

Vox a week ago: New York City secures its own supply of 100,000 coronavirus tests per week

Still not enough but it needs to be taken into consideration when comparing state case numbers.

I'm sure that's part of it, but given cities having nowhere NEAR the amount of ICU overwhelming, I think they really do have that many MORE cases per 100,000 people than other places

 

[Belz...]

I think that beaches have different "points" for different people.

Nonsense. That would imply that different people can have different, legitimate opinions and values, when clearly only mine count.

 

[Elagabalus]

...Then maybe we can discuss the risk factors. Like the comorbidity list of nine diseases that seems to leave off "lives in confined quarters with others with the same co-moralities"...

Generally, I would prefer to be living in confined quarters with someone who is immoral.

 

[dann]

How is NYC still getting upwards of 5000 cases per day?
(...)
... how do you explain so many cases still being added every day?

Remember that increased number of testing = more cases being added (= discovered).

 

[The Atheist]

I meant to post this before - Organ damage putting further pressure on ICUs, and dialysis machines now in short supply: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/coronavirus-kidney-dialysis-need/index.html

I don't know whether that's a sign of better management of respiratory issues keeping patients alive who then require more and more intensive treatment, or an effect of the disease becoming more virulent.

Either way, or whatever the cause, it's more evidence this disease does require the effort being made.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Remember that increased number of testing = more cases being added (= discovered).

Sure, but the other things that go along with more cases, like piles more people in ICU and dead would suggest thats nowhere near all of the discrepancy

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm sure that's part of it, but given cities having nowhere NEAR the amount of ICU overwhelming, I think they really do have that many MORE cases per 100,000 people than other places

I didn't say they don't have more patients, of course they do. I was responding the the question of how could NY have X number of cases more than Y.

 

[dann]

Gawd! Here's another one.

Enters via the mouth. You inhale, voilá into the trachea it goes.

Yes, obviously. What's your point?

 

[Giordano]

Decades of infection control research about pathogens spread on healthcare worker hands begs to differ. And what are we doing all this ******* hand washing for?

Prove it.

Why are you guys doing this, spreading word of mouth hypotheses? What happened to our evidence based medicine crowd? Dr Hall where are you?

Dear SK,

You tend to over react to many posts. I only suggested that it was hypothetically conceivable skin possessed some inherent antimicrobial activities, or not, and only suggested to not be completely dismissive of the possibility. Obviously any such activities are not enough to consistently protect us. The reason to do handwashing, duh, but an evolutionary benefit, if true, before the development of soap.

Well surprise, skin is known to synthesize and display on its surface antibacterial peptides.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2639779/

There is an enormous amount of RNase on the skin surface, although I don’t see how this could penetrate intact, infectious RNA viruses.

If you have studies that prove skin has no antiviral activities versus an inorganic surface I would like to read them. Honestly.

 

[JeanTate]

I'm sure that's part of it, but given cities having nowhere NEAR the amount of ICU overwhelming, I think they really do have that many MORE cases per 100,000 people than other places

Per my post at the top of this page, NY certainly has more Covid-19 deaths, per 100k of population, than any other US state. #2 and #3 - NJ and CT, respectively, rounding out the tri-state area - might suggest why: the Big Apple. Lots of people with Covid-19 coming in from Europe, lots of people commuting on very crowded trains.

Lots of community spreading before much testing was done; too widespread for serious contact tracing once tests did become available.

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

The biggy is L.A. county, 1,000 random tests. You will need your surgical mask tied quite a bit too tightly to not hear about it. The pre-release is that there are more people out there that had it and never even knew it. Some info: https://news.usc.edu/168810/usc-cov...nswers-questions-about-testing-in-l-a-county/

There’s also the big one in Germany:

Germany has begun a survey for antibodies, using 3,000 families selected at random. This won't be a one-off test; the participants will be tested once a month for a year. There are plans to test all residents for antibodies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/...Wdivoxnnz7jSHKWhH9NkIUhKnNbc1No0_oPW_QZ0XCZG4

Serological tests, for Covid-19, seem to have run into a few problems, particularly re specificity and sensitivity. I hope whoever is running the LA county one goes the extra mile re estimating the false positive rate.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Lots of community spreading before much testing was done; too widespread for serious contact tracing once tests did become available.

But assuming a lockdown which has now gone on for quite a while, why are the new cases still so large? I contend that there are a LOT more people sharing air that shouldn't be still at this point

But I'm open to some unknown foodborne outbreaks

or maybe even a bunch of apartments sharing air between all the different units?

But given what I see of pictures and videos, it seems like still way way way too many people in close contact

 

[marting]

Serological tests, for Covid-19, seem to have run into a few problems, particularly re specificity and sensitivity. I hope whoever is running the LA county one goes the extra mile re estimating the false positive rate.

This article does a great job of explaining the value of serologic tests. It also is one of the rare pieces that describes the problem with the Stanford study. It's a really good article. The guy understands statistics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastest-way-end-lockdowns-004102410.html

Let me cut it short. Overall, it looks like more than 1% of the 3330 people were infected with COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. That’s 20 times more than the official case count.

If I were one of the researchers, I wouldn’t have used Santa Clara County for this analysis. As far as we know, the test kit has a 0.5% false positive outcome. However, it could be more than that. If the false positive percentage is actually 1.5%, then maybe all of the 50 positive results were false positives. We just can’t be certain.

 

[The Atheist]

Sure, but the other things that go along with more cases, like piles more people in ICU and dead would suggest thats nowhere near all of the discrepancy

Not to mention the piles of dead that aren't being counted.

Taking a look back at data on overall deaths will be bloody interesting when this is all over, to see whose numbers were the most truthful.

At the moment, the only numbers I trust implcitly are ours, South Korea's, Germany's and Iceland's. Aussie's getting close, but they haven't started random testing yet.

There’s also the big one in Germany:

I'll be interested to see what Germany comes up with, because I don't trust the LA numbers at all, which is probably why they didn't bother seeking peer review before publishing - they knew it was crap.

 

[The Atheist]

or maybe even a bunch of apartments sharing air between all the different units?

Don't be silly - surely, the richest country on the planet and leader of the world wouldn't have sub-standard systems where air is shared and/or recycled between floors?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

But assuming a lockdown which has now gone on for quite a while, why are the new cases still so large? I contend that there are a LOT more people sharing air that shouldn't be still at this point



But I'm open to some unknown foodborne outbreaks



or maybe even a bunch of apartments sharing air between all the different units?



But given what I see of pictures and videos, it seems like still way way way too many people in close contact

Big box stores increasingly hitting capacity limits. After a 4-5 day chill, yesterday local parks were teeming in truly terrifying numbers. Numerous friends posting about nixing their outings once they saw the crush of people out everywhere.

This is in Kansas City.

I'm so glad I took this 6 week overnight gig.

Depending on models, we're either just past peak or about to be.

Now we get to find out if the neat symmetry of these projections is going to happen (fall off as rapidly as they rose).

My prediction: nope, especially as easing of rules looks to be too aggressive and people's brazen stupidity even under these (relatively lax) rules continues uncontested.