The New Nostradamus...Psychohistory?

[Bikewer]

The History channel was running a show yesterday called The New Nostradamus, profiling mathemetician/social scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who has a computer program/model that can reputedly make accurate predictions about various human affairs and conflicts.

Alas, I did not get to watch the episode, which of course brought to mind Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" trilogy and the invention of "Psychohistory", which could make accurate predictions of human behavior.

There is a wiki article on the guy, and I found this article as well:

http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus

Apparently, the guy makes some claim to a good track record with his predictions, but is also a bit controversial.
Anyone else heard of this guy and his notions?

 

[seayakin]

Wasn't it Isaac Asimov (or someone else) who had mentioned psychohistory in one of his novels? Whichever it was, the concept behind it was the same.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Well. Speaking as one time meteorologist.

All I have to say is Chaos_theory^WP.

Doesn't work. Can't work.

 

[dudalb]

It's a terrible concept.
It comes out of the urge of some people to apply the same methods you use in the hard sciences to history, and it has predictably bad results. If you are a mathmetician who is interested in History, I think the "If the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" rule applies.
It has been around for a while.
Asimov stated that he used psycho history as a plot device for his Foundation novels, and he never meant for it to be taken as a serious method of history. That is one reason he introduced the Mule into his Foundation stories, to show how improbable and unreliable a pure mathmatical approach to history is.
Heinlein has something simliar in Starship Troopers, but unlike Asimov, he apparently actually thought of it in a serious way. Heinlein was perhaps the best Sci Fi writer of all times, but he had some, let us say, wierd ideas.

 

[Jeff Corey]

In psychology, it refers to this: "Psychohistory. A Psychoanalytic Approach to History
This site contains a psychoanalytic interpretation of myths, Biblical stories, tales, and historical and current events."

I refer to it as Psycho History.