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The New Draft

kittynh

Penultimate Amazing
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Dec 18, 2002
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So, I'm talking with some local teens, and they are telling me all about the "new draft". Supposedly as soon as Bush is reelected, he's putting in place the new draft.

Rumor has it going likethis....

Males and females

a treaty with Canada so they will return draft dodgers

no college exemption


Parents also are believing it. My neighbors with sons all say they are not registering at 18. SEveral of them say they are taking their kids off their taxes this year. My one neighbor with 2 high school boys has already contacted friends in Germany that are going to take the boys the minute the draft is announced. Even before she said. She reminded the other moms to have their kids passports always up to date.

The home schooling moms are also trying to get their kids off radar as soon as possible and are trying to get other moms to consider home schooling since the military will use school records.

Myself, a lot of my family already serves. Heck, I know the good work that is being done in Afghanistan, and the importance of being there. but do I want my daughter sent off to Iraq with the draft (and as an Arabic major what are her odds of NOT going there), and as an enlisted person perhaps (if her education isn't finished)? Well, she's an adult and can decide. But on the other hand I'm keeping her passport up to date.
 
kittynh said:
So, I'm talking with some local teens, and they are telling me all about the "new draft". Supposedly as soon as Bush is reelected, he's putting in place the new draft.

Rumor has it going likethis....

Males and females

a treaty with Canada so they will return draft dodgers

no college exemption


Parents also are believing it. My neighbors with sons all say they are not registering at 18. SEveral of them say they are taking their kids off their taxes this year. My one neighbor with 2 high school boys has already contacted friends in Germany that are going to take the boys the minute the draft is announced. Even before she said. She reminded the other moms to have their kids passports always up to date.

The home schooling moms are also trying to get their kids off radar as soon as possible and are trying to get other moms to consider home schooling since the military will use school records.

Myself, a lot of my family already serves. Heck, I know the good work that is being done in Afghanistan, and the importance of being there. but do I want my daughter sent off to Iraq with the draft (and as an Arabic major what are her odds of NOT going there), and as an enlisted person perhaps (if her education isn't finished)? Well, she's an adult and can decide. But on the other hand I'm keeping her passport up to date.
Click to expand...

I don't know if you listened to the debate last night, but Bush said that his next four years in office would continue the tradition of the all volunteer military. Whether one takes him at his word depends on the person though...
 
This is 100% a dirty-tricks whisper campaign.

In the past few weeks you've had Howard Dean, Cleland, Edwards, several news authorities, etc all peddling this rumor. John Kerry took a question about it at a town hall meeting where he left the 'will republicans reinstate the draft' question unanswered instead of just saying it's an internet rumor.

The only advocacy in the Congress on the draft has come from Democrats, but you won't hear that from the rumor-mongers.

Here is Snopes.

And of course, we've discussed it here as well. Last spring. If you search around on these forums, you'll see that that wasn't the first time.

As dirty tricks campaigns go, this is likely to be quite effective.

MattJ
 
kittynh said:
So, I'm talking with some local teens, and they are telling me all about the "new draft". Supposedly as soon as Bush is reelected, he's putting in place the new draft.

Rumor has it going likethis....

(...snip...)


But on the other hand I'm keeping her passport up to date.
Click to expand...
Let me get this straight. You're hearing rumors from teenagers and you're making relocation plans?

Is your skeptic meter broken?

FWIW, there is a bill in the House right now (unless it got killed in committee or something) to reinstate a draft. It was introduced by Charles Rangel, a Democrat from New York. Its chances of passing are somewhere between zero and zero. If you're seriously worried about this, call/write your congressman.
 
kittynh said:
So, I'm talking with some local teens, and they are telling me all about the "new draft". Supposedly as soon as Bush is reelected, he's putting in place the new draft.

Rumor has it going likethis....

Males and females

a treaty with Canada so they will return draft dodgers

no college exemption
Click to expand...

Not a chance. FIrst of all, Bush can't make the decision to create a draft on his own; he would need some sort of enabling legislation. Second, the idea of drafting women would alienate the various conservative/religious right groups, one of the most important bricks in his power structure. Third, the chance of Canada signing that particular treaty would provide a very good operational definition of zero. Ditto regarding enforcement. Fourth, there are other English-speaking countries in the world besides Canada. My understanding is that Sydney offers a world-class education in a climate that puts Southern California to shame. If you prefer Harvard to UCLA, the weather and food in Oxford is just as bad. What more could you want?

And fifth and most importantly -- the millitary doesn't want a draft. The quality of soldiers you get from a draft is so low that it would result in a substantial reduction in the quality of the armed forces. The only people who want a draft are a few neocon policy wonks in Washington, most of whom were draft-dodgers themselves in Vietnam and have no combat experience. The chance that this policy would get past the Joint Chiefs makes the chance that Canada would sign the treaty look like gambler's odds.

But you're more or less right that there's no college exemption under current (US) draft law. I'm just as glad about that, actually.
 
a treaty with Canada so they will return draft dodgers
Click to expand...
Bush ?

Bush signing a treaty ?

With an ally ?

And that ally actually agreeing with the terms defined by Bush ?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight :D
 
Earthborn said:
Bush ?

Bush signing a treaty ?

With an ally ?

And that ally actually agreeing with the terms defined by Bush ?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight :D
Click to expand...

The mail is talking about this which is an agreement the Bush administration made with Canada about new border rules.

As far as I can tell, it's got nothing to do with draft-dodgers, and everything to do with securing our borders.
 
aerocontrols said:
As far as I can tell, it's got nothing to do with draft-dodgers, and everything to do with securing our borders.
Click to expand...

But John Kerry said that President Bush is doing nothing to secure our borders!?! :confused:
 
There is absolutely no way there is going to be a draft in the US in the forseeable future (i.e., at least the next Presidential term, which goes to Jan 20, 2009). I'll gladly wager in case anyone thinks I'm just popping off without backing it up.
 
Number Six said:
There is absolutely no way there is going to be a draft in the US in the forseeable future (i.e., at least the next Presidential term, which goes to Jan 20, 2009). I'll gladly wager in case anyone thinks I'm just popping off without backing it up.
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OK, you're on for $5 US.

Now that that's out of the way, what is your evidence that there is "absolutely no way" there will be a draft prior to 1/20/09?
 
Why have a draft when the DoD can just keep extending the poor shmucks who signed up for reserve duty?

Charlie (if there's a draft, I'm going to Canada) Monoxide
 
Charlie Monoxide said:
Why have a draft when the DoD can just keep extending the poor shmucks who signed up for reserve duty?

Charlie (if there's a draft, I'm going to Canada) Monoxide
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Eventually, the troops get a ◊◊◊◊ you attitude and ask "What are you going to do to me. Shave my head and send me to Iraq?"

Happened in Vietnam.
 
But John Kerry said that President Bush is doing nothing to secure our borders!?!

I'd like to know what Lurch's voting record is on stopping the illegal alien tidal wave - I'd be very surprised if he get's any grade but an "F". But as with so many issues, looks like he's flipped to be come a born again secure borders advocate.
 
Well I don't have evidence per se since it's not something that can definitely be determined as true or not true today. But my reasons are basically this:

1. There would be a big, big uproar from the public and any political party that supported it would get kicked in the butt at the voting booth.

2. I recall reading that the military itself doesn't like a draft (unless it's an emergency) because having soldiers that don't want to be there is a hassle.

3. It would be seen across the globe as a big victory for Al Qaeda in this War on Terror, some of which is fought in the perception of people around the world. The US says it is committed to fighting the War on Terror, etc, but how does it look if it has to force it's citizens to fight it by law? Whatever recruits Al Qaeda gets are eager to be suicide bombers but the US is fighting with people that are only in the military because their only other alternative is jail? That'd look awful. The US has committed itself to being (or at least looking) committed.

4. Getting more people into the military via a draft for a short campaign is one thing but this whole thing is expected to go on for decades and there is no way the government can draft people for decades in todays world. People would protest if it ever started at all, not to mention if it went on for years and years.

In a way the implausibility of a draft is a good thing IMO because it means the powers that be will have to be more clever about fighting this instead of just relying on brute force with more and more soldiers. And I don't just mean clever about actual physical fighting but also about the non-physical stuff, i.e., persuading public opinion in various places. Not that I think such a good job has been done with that so far, but eventually they'll do better because they'll have no choice.
 
Number Six said:
Well I don't have evidence per se since it's not something that can definitely be determined as true or not true today. But my reasons are basically this:(snip)
Click to expand...

Nice of you to concede on the first reply. :D

I understand your points, but I'm glad you realize it is opinion .

The US managed to do it in WWII, Korea (I think), and Vietnam. Why should Iraq be different?

Forget the $5 Number Six.

BTW, I tend to agree with your first two points. Voters might pitch a bi*ch about a draft, and volunteers make much better soldiers as a rule. The other two points are certainly arguable.
 
We're talking about events in the future so of course I couldn't prove it to be a fact. If I came off otherwise then I misspoke.

Why should Iraq be so different than those other wards? Because WW II was 60 years ago. Because Korea was 50 years ago. And because Vietname was 30-40 years ago and still they had a helluva time with the draft because it p***** so many people off. It's getting harder as time passes to have a draft, espeically when there are so many different opinions on how to proceed with this War on Terror and the Iraq thing.

And I don't want to forget the $5. If I lose I'll give it to you or whatever group you want. If you lose I want you to give it to JREF. The whole point of me saying I'd wager and that I wasn't just popping off was that I wasn't just popping off and I feel very confident there won't be a draft before Jan 20, 2009.
 
Yeah, you misspoke. No problem.

I can only speak from the viewpoint of a person that was "available meat" for Vietnam. I turned 18 in 1970.

Back then I thought it impossible that my country would make me go to a foreign country and kill people. Idealistically anyhow (since my brother was in Vietnam at the time).

I just wanted to take you to task on your "absolutely no way" there is gonna be a draft statement.

This is a skeptics forum after all. ;)
 
well, I'm so FOR a draft. If we are going to commit to these little wars (and the LONG cleanup) let's make sure everyone agree to it enough to send their kids. If one of the Bush twins was serving in Iraq, I'd buy into it more.

I'm a life long Republican, that thought voting Republican was a vote for fiscal responsibility.
Right....

Having a mandatory draft is ensuring that we think long and hard before commiting to something like IRaq. OK, so I asked my neighbor about the draft. On the web site she saw (I'm getting it from her) it's going in place after the "next" 9-11. So I was saying, "so this is just some contingency plan in case there is another large terrorist attack" and she said, "no it's WHEN there is another large terrorist attack." Seems to be some Pentagon document about what is going to happen with the next terrorist attacks. Seriously, if there is another large scale attack you'll have people lined up to volunteer, so I don't see what the point is. Knowing the Pentagon (I grew up in DC with a Fed dad, and friends that all had dads at every other agency) they have contingency documents about when the aliens land. I know they have one about large scale biological crisis (that one was very funny...)
 
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