The Libya problem.

[ladmo]

Not all of us believe that. (see this thread) But we're supposed to.

Hey, thanks for the background by providing the thread.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

I kinda came out neutral on Libya. I kinda am hoping the country splits. I wonder what side would be a better place than the other. The side with a weakened autocratic ruler or the side with democracy. What would really be fun would do a west germany type thing to the rebel controlled side of Libya and ignore that autocratic side.

 

[Caustic Logic]

I kinda came out neutral on Libya. I kinda am hoping the country splits. I wonder what side would be a better place than the other. The side with a weakened autocratic ruler or the side with democracy. What would really be fun would do a west germany type thing to the rebel controlled side of Libya and ignore that autocratic side.

I'm a rare sympathizer with the regime there, so at first I was hoping they'd be able to win, keep their Wall-Street hated system, and liberalize (socially) or whatever. But now I'm for partition. Any other solution would force a significant number of people to be ruled over by what they see as enemies and traitors.

What I propose is to give the Cyrenaica coastal areas, Benghazi and east, to the rebels. They could have the offshore oil there, and a share of that transiting their areas. The rest of the land, oil, and other resources would stay under control of a new government, who'd boot col. Gaddafi and his personality cult, and give Saif a prominent (but not leading) role, in a coalition. The people would vote on the form of the future (maybe informed by but not ruled by the "green book") and, if they do it right, the east might eventually decide to re-join.

That isn't the plan, of course. All of Libya and all of its resoources are to be ruled over by the rebels, if Wall Street gets its way. It will be awkward to force all Libyan to accept this. There may be fighting for years, but I suspect this is the route we'll take anyways.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

I'm a rare sympathizer with the regime there, so at first I was hoping they'd be able to win, keep their Wall-Street hated system, and liberalize (socially) or whatever. But now I'm for partition. Any other solution would force a significant number of people to be ruled over by what they see as enemies and traitors.

What I propose is to give the Cyrenaica coastal areas, Benghazi and east, to the rebels. They could have the offshore oil there, and a share of that transiting their areas. The rest of the land, oil, and other resources would stay under control of a new government, who'd boot col. Gaddafi and his personality cult, and give Saif a prominent (but not leading) role, in a coalition. The people would vote on the form of the future (maybe informed by but not ruled by the "green book") and, if they do it right, the east might eventually decide to re-join.

That isn't the plan, of course. All of Libya and all of its resoources are to be ruled over by the rebels, if Wall Street gets its way. It will be awkward to force all Libyan to accept this. There may be fighting for years, but I suspect this is the route we'll take anyways.

Its going to be pretty hard to force anything with the route we are taking. All we can do is offer them carrots and hope that they are hungry.

 

[egslim]

I kinda came out neutral on Libya. I kinda am hoping the country splits. I wonder what side would be a better place than the other. The side with a weakened autocratic ruler or the side with democracy. What would really be fun would do a west germany type thing to the rebel controlled side of Libya and ignore that autocratic side.

If they manage to create a functional democracy.

First that requires everyone to abide by democratic rule. If some tribes/towns insist on a more theocratic form of government, they'll need to be brought in line.

Second, people must vote about ideas (issues, ideology) instead of along tribal alliances. Otherwise the country will be run by people from a coalition of tribes, while representatives from other tribes are kept from government. That's a recipe for corruption and other problems.

 

[Bunntamas]

I kinda am hoping the country splits. I wonder what side would be a better place than the other. The side with a weakened autocratic ruler or the side with democracy.

Hmmmm... You might want to check out how well that's working out for Israelis and Palestinians. Just sayin'.

~B.