Max, would you agree that the argument that HJ is the only explanation has not been made by HJ proponents?
Well I am not Max (obviously), but I am happy to agree that few if any HJ posters here have said that a HJ is certain or said that the likelihood is a near certainty.
Though having said that, Bart Ehrman did of course insist (repeatedly, in print) that not only does he claim that Jesus was indeed a certainty, but that as he says "practically every properly trained scholar on the planet" agrees with him about that.
And of course the point about that is, that Bart Ehrman and all these "properly trained scholars" are precisely the people who in all these various HJ threads the HJ posters have constantly and repeatedly cited as the scholarly historian experts who we should all accept as being right on this matter.
But, apart from that - yes I agree (if this is your implication), that you have not gone further than to say you would put the likelihood of a real HJ at roughly around 60% probable. And that's a figure that several HJ posters here agreed with in the past (when there were several pages of posts debating such tentative numerical estimates), though iirc Craig said he would put the figure at around 90% (and from Stein's posts it sounds very much as if he would take the same line as Ehrman and all his tens of thousands of "properly trained scholars", and put it at 100%).
Personally I think it's obvious that the biblical writing does not offer a sufficiently reliable source of evidence to make any such numerical guess ... on the basis of the biblical writing as evidence, I would not put any figure on it at all, neither 0% or 100%, or any other number in-between ... because there simply is no reliable evidence there upon which to make even the most tentative of guesses.
But of course we are not talking here about what merely might be true for Jesus. We are arguing about what should count as a reliable source of evidence of Jesus being known to anyone as a living human person in the 1st century.
And I think it's perfectly obvious that the gospels and letters of the bible are not by even the weakest and most inadequate standards, anywhere near being a reliable source of evidence (and where that has been explained here in detail very many times).
If anyone here wants to believe that Jesus most probably existed then that's up to them as a matter of their individual personal belief. But if they claim that the bible does show reliable evidence of probability above 50%, then that is a very different claim indeed ... and it's not a claim that I think can be supported in any way at all by any properly objective assessment of the bible as the source of evidence for Jesus