• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

The Good Guy With A Gun Theory, Debunked

Most uses of gun in self defense do not include shooting the gun. The attack typically stops when the victim shows he/she has a gun and is willing to use it.
What I see as problematic is this .. is ti acceptable to deny guns to people if state can't provide reasonable security ?
 
For many years (since I was a teen, at least) the NRA's publication, The American Rifleman, has published the "Armed Citizen" column monthly.
This consisted of articles culled from local newspapers by subscribers and sent in. Each article had the citations attached. They all concerned the use of weapons by citizens to protect themselves, stop criminals, or dissuade criminals from their activities.
The "Rifleman" would publish 20 or so per month.

Mind, this was only situations reported to local papers and sent in by Rifleman subscribers, very likely the incidence was actually much higher.
This has since, as you might imagine, moved online and here is but one site:

https://www.nraila.org/gun-laws/armed-citizen/

This is constantly updated and there is a considerable archive.

So, it's fairly obvious that "good guys with guns" do indeed succeed in protecting themselves or others or in stopping criminal activity, and on a fairly ongoing basis.
Now, whether these incidents are frequent enough to have an impact on crime rates on even a local level, that's unlikely.
These are isolated incidents and in the overall scheme of things, quite limited.
Still, it happens.

I don't think that it's particularly arguable that if you do have a "bad guy with a gun" situation, it is in fact the presence of good guys similarly armed (be that police or citizens) that puts a stop to the activity.
What else is going to? The so-called "mass shooter" usually continues his activities until the police arrive and then they suicide.
That so few of such individuals have been engaged by citizens is primarily a testimony to the fact that the actual percentage of citizens who are doing regular CCW is very small.

Back when Missouri was considering allowing CCW, the local papers did a very extensive research article which indicated two things. First (as this notes) the enactment of CCW in states had very little if any effect on crime rates.
But on the other hand, it also did not result in the "streets running with blood" scenarios put forth by the "against" folks.
And that's pretty much been the case here. We have a LOT of shootings here in St. Louis. Hardly a weekend goes by without a dozen or so people getting shot. These are all gang/drug related and almost all confined to a very small area of the city.
These are people to whom violence and turf wars and revenge killings are a way of life and they are indiscriminate and vicious.
Legislation will not be effective in controlling this violence, only a sea-change in the social conditions that spawn it.

It's my personal belief that those who are concerned with their own safety, and who are willing to invest the time, training, and mental training to accept the attendant responsibility, they should be able to.
Missouri just made it the case that if you can legally purchase a handgun, you can carry it. No training or permit required.
IMO.... A mistake. We'll see.
 
Last edited:
I'd like an answer to a question (if anyone knows)

Police and LEOs excluded, how many times each year does "a good guy with a gun" actually shoot "a bad guy with a gun actually doing something bad", compared with how many times a good guy with a gun

1. Accidentally discharges his gun, killing or injuring someone?
2. Accidentally discharges his gun, killing or injuring himself?
3. Intentionally shoots someone he thought was a bad guy with a gun, only for it turn out that it was actually another good guy with a gun, or someone who didn't even have a gun at all?

Your question itself is nonsensical. Why are you considering only cases where the firearm was actually discharged? Guns can have a significant effect on a situation even without being discharged. Shouldn't those cases be included too? Yes, obviously they should. So why do you want to ignore them?
 
20 times, huh? How many people were killed by a gun in America during that same period?

I'll tell you. According to gunviolencearchive.org (which was merely the first site I found that presented such statistics and I have no idea how reliable it is) there were 58,673 total incidents, which included 15,062 deaths - 671 of them children aged 0-11.

20 "good guy with a gun" incidents is utterly insignificant. Even if it's ten times that number, it's still insignificant, just maybe not utterly so.

From the 2013 CDC study (that so disappointed hoplophobes):

Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million per year, in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008.
 
Your question itself is nonsensical. Why are you considering only cases where the firearm was actually discharged? Guns can have a significant effect on a situation even without being discharged. Shouldn't those cases be included too? Yes, obviously they should. So why do you want to ignore them?

Then you have to include the times a gun was drawn in error, that is the "good guy" realised there was no actual threat to justify drawing their gun, before they discharged said gun. Common sense tells us that number would be much higher that the number of times the drawing of a gun actually led to deescalation of a situation.
 
The reason why the German police is getting so much flak for possible brutality is that they do mostly have a Monopoly on violence.
In many ways, US law enforcement hasn't. That is why there are cases where using BearCats, tanks and multiple SWAT teams might be appropriate in some places in the US.
The logic is not that the police can't have guns - that would be stupid.
It is that it must have a clearly superior firepower, which obviously leads to escalation with laxer gun laws.
Of course, this is exactly what the gun lobby wants: sell weapons to both sides, just like any gunrunner everywhere.

Historically, the German police having a monopoly on violence worked out so well.
 
The upshot of this last point is that while violent crime statistics have been falling all over America, it has fallen more slowly in states that have "Shall Issue" laws.
I read the article and some of the links; some of which I'll read again.

http://news.stanford.edu/2017/06/21/violent-crime-increases-right-carry-states/
While that report debunked claims that RTC laws had been shown to reduce crime, the 16 experts on the panel were not able to definitively conclude that carrying concealed weapons had an effect – positive or negative – on violent crime.

Some of their reasoning was a bit over my head. But it seems that perhaps more people need to look at their data and conclusions.

Ranb
 
Then you have to include the times a gun was drawn in error, that is the "good guy" realised there was no actual threat to justify drawing their gun, before they discharged said gun. Common sense tells us that number would be much higher that the number of times the drawing of a gun actually led to deescalation of a situation.

Common sense might tell us that, but what do the numbers say?
 
Historically, the German police having a monopoly on violence worked out so well.

Are you one of the people who fell for the "the Nazis disarmed all the people"-meme?
Only failed states have no monopoly on violence. It's just a question of how much violence is necessary to establish that fact.
 
20 times, huh? How many people were killed by a gun in America during that same period?

I'll tell you. According to gunviolencearchive.org (which was merely the first site I found that presented such statistics and I have no idea how reliable it is) there were 58,673 total incidents, which included 15,062 deaths - 671 of them children aged 0-11.

20 "good guy with a gun" incidents is utterly insignificant. Even if it's ten times that number, it's still insignificant, just maybe not utterly so.

Interestingly though, your link gives 1,917 as the number of "defensive uses". So maybe it's actually closer to 100 times that number. At the same time though there were 2,200 "unintentional shootings".

I believe, for myself at least, that it's safer to not own a gun, even if you just weigh the likelihood of an accidental shooting vs. the likelihood of preventing a crime or using it in self defense.

For better or worse though it's an American cultural thing. I don't think it's going to change.
 
Common sense might tell us that, but what do the numbers say?

Funny you didn't ask about the numbers used when the argument was in support of CC.

And the point was made that there are no numbers so neither side is supported. I just pointed out that one side was left out of the no numbers claim.
 
I think that the NRA's mantra of 'the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun' is being twisted a little. The U.S. has more guns than people, and that genie is irrevocably out of the bottle. The CCW crowd wants to be able to legally defend themselves from a criminal with a usually illegal weapon. I would not expect the ability to respond to violence to necessarily correlate to lowered violence.

And then there are the cases like the off duty cop who was recently shot for trying to be a good guy with a gun while black. Friendly fire is the best.
 
Then you have to include the times a gun was drawn in error, that is the "good guy" realised there was no actual threat to justify drawing their gun, before they discharged said gun.

One could, but such cases aren't nearly as consequential. And I assume you're looking for a meaningful comparison, not simply some number to wave around.

Common sense tells us that number would be much higher that the number of times the drawing of a gun actually led to deescalation of a situation.

Do you have any actual evidence to support this? Plenty of stuff which is claimed as "common sense" turns out to be false.
 

Back
Top Bottom