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The Electric Revolution

Much like the electric tool market where battery platform adapters are available, people are getting plug adapters for chargers to cars.

I suspect that it's not always the best route as electronics and specs can differ. It certainly isn't with tools.

If charging networks and car makers don't compromise the consumers will.
 
Tesla: Holds the largest market share of EVs sold in Q2 of 2025 in the US, at around 48.5%
Tesla sold more EVs than the next 4 brands combined in the US in August.

Tesla: Accounted for approximately 10.52% of the global EV market in 2024

In 2024, the UK's market share for fully electric vehicles (BEVs) was 19.6%

That's not what I asked though. How many cars does Tesla sell with only its own proprietary socket, and how many do they sell that are CCS2 equipped?
 
That's not what I asked though. How many cars does Tesla sell with only its own proprietary socket, and how many do they sell that are CCS2 equipped?
I don't know. But I do know their cars in Europe and Australia are equipped with CCS2 compliant adapters.
 
I was just trying to figure out how the economics worked out. They could be absolutely dominating in America and not so dominant outwith America, but still have as many or more sales outwith America, given that America is only a small part of the market overall. And they may not be overwhelmingly dominant here but there are still a hell of a lot of them around.
 
I was just trying to figure out how the economics worked out. They could be absolutely dominating in America and not so dominant outwith America, but still have as many or more sales outwith America, given that America is only a small part of the market overall. And they may not be overwhelmingly dominant here but there are still a hell of a lot of them around.
There is no doubt they are losing market share everywhere including North America. Musk and Trump stuck a fork into Tesla sales. They are down to about 10% outside of the US. And 49% in the US.
 
Interesting. I just watched a YouTube video by Will Prowse. He tested and tore apart sodium ion battery. Let's just say he wasn't impressed.

He also talks about the issues with sodium batteries in general in another video below. Looks like it will be a long time before Sodium batteries overtake lithium. That said LIFEpo batteries are still a lot cheaper than they were a couple of years ago. It's also true chemists are gard at work trying build better and or cheaper batteries and there are good reasons to believe they will be successful.

 
Interesting. I just watched a YouTube video by Will Prowse. He tested and tore apart sodium ion battery. Let's just say he wasn't impressed.

He also talks about the issues with sodium batteries in general in another video below. Looks like it will be a long time before Sodium batteries overtake lithium. That said LIFEpo batteries are still a lot cheaper than they were a couple of years ago. It's also true chemists are gard at work trying build better and or cheaper batteries and there are good reasons to believe they will be successful.

Will's good on most things renewable...
A lot of people seem to be under the impression that sodiums on the market now, large scale and ready to knock LFP off its perch tomorrow- in reality, it is available in limited numbers, it brings its own issues, and it may- or may not- even get a major toe in the storage market- who knows at this point...
It has 'potential' yes...
Will it though???
 
There is no doubt they are losing market share everywhere including North America. Musk and Trump stuck a fork into Tesla sales. They are down to about 10% outside of the US. And 49% in the US.
No, that's not what happened.

According to Cox Automotive:-
As expected, electric vehicle (EV) sales volume in the U.S. hit an all-time high in Q3 2025... During the third quarter, electric vehicles accounted for 10.5% of total vehicle sales, also a new record and a significant increase from the 8.6% share in the same period last year.

However, not all automakers joined the sales party. Mercedes-Benz EV sales in Q3 were mostly flat year over year, while Toyota and Nissan both sold fewer EVs last quarter compared to Q3 2024. Meanwhile, Volkswagen, General Motors, Honda and Hyundai saw sizeable gains — VW and GM posted EV sales more than double year-ago levels — and even Tesla managed to eke out an 8% year-over-year gain in the quarter
If Musk 'put a fork into' Tesla's EV sales (which were actually 8% higher in Q3 this year than last year), who put the fork into Mercedes-Benz, Toyota and Nissan?

The real reason Tesla has been losing market share is:-
The EV pioneer can’t maintain its share in a segment where every automaker is working to expand its own electric vehicle portfolio.
This was entirely predictable. It was Musk's goal from the start. He even said he would be happy to go bankrupt if that's what it took to make the auto industry transition to EVs. They still have a way to go though, as Tesla still dominates with a 41% share of the US market in Q3 2025. Both Ford and GM promised they would be selling more EVs than Tesla by now, and by rights they should be. In reality they aren't even close. One wonders what they are doing so wrong to not achieve their goals.

As for Toyota - the world's largest car maker - they couldn't even make an EV that the wheels didn't literally fall off of. Now they are just slapping their badge on Chinese made EVs, while they continue to pour money down the drain on Hydrogen (to be fair, they are apparently building a factory of their own in China, planning to start production of Lexus branded EVs in 2027. But even that will really be a Chinese operation).

As to whether Trump had a hand in reducing Tesla's market share, we will have to wait and see what effect tariffs and removing the EV tax credit have. All EV manufacturers are being affected by it, and are changing their plans to deal with it. So the question is who will be affected the most. By the end of next year we should have some idea.

Unless the others continue screwing it up, Tesla should lose more market share next year too. But that isn't a bad thing. Tesla has achieved Musk's goal of kickstarting the EV industry, and is now moving on to other things. However they will continue making cars, just like IBM continued making PCs after the clones took over (until selling their PC divison to Chinese firm Lenovo in 2005).

Today Tesla announced that the Cybercab will be capable of having a steering wheel and pedals added. I predict they will do this because otherwise they won't get the production quantities they need to make the Cybercab affordable. The potential market for a small 'low cost' (US$25,000) EV is enormous, especially if it has autonomous driving (even if only 'supervised'). Other car makers had better have something similar ready for production next year if they want to beat Tesla.
 
Will's good on most things renewable...
A lot of people seem to be under the impression that sodiums on the market now, large scale and ready to knock LFP off its perch tomorrow- in reality, it is available in limited numbers, it brings its own issues, and it may- or may not- even get a major toe in the storage market- who knows at this point...
It has 'potential' yes...
Will it though???
I never think things will happen that fast. There are almost always teething issues. Time is needed to perfect. Time is needed to develop a supply chain. In one of those videos I linked to, he really destroyed sodium for a grid storage battery. Which I thought was it's best application because the volumetric energy density was 30 percent than Lifepo. Much closer in gravimetric density.

Over time Sodium Ion batteries might eventually challenge Lithium. But in the meantime Lifepo keeps getting better and cheaper.
 
No, that's not what happened.

According to Cox Automotive:-

If Musk 'put a fork into' Tesla's EV sales (which were actually 8% higher in Q3 this year than last year), who put the fork into Mercedes-Benz, Toyota and Nissan?

The real reason Tesla has been losing market share is:-

This was entirely predictable. It was Musk's goal from the start. He even said he would be happy to go bankrupt if that's what it took to make the auto industry transition to EVs. They still have a way to go though, as Tesla still dominates with a 41% share of the US market in Q3 2025. Both Ford and GM promised they would be selling more EVs than Tesla by now, and by rights they should be. In reality they aren't even close. One wonders what they are doing so wrong to not achieve their goals.

As for Toyota - the world's largest car maker - they couldn't even make an EV that the wheels didn't literally fall off of. Now they are just slapping their badge on Chinese made EVs, while they continue to pour money down the drain on Hydrogen (to be fair, they are apparently building a factory of their own in China, planning to start production of Lexus branded EVs in 2027. But even that will really be a Chinese operation).

As to whether Trump had a hand in reducing Tesla's market share, we will have to wait and see what effect tariffs and removing the EV tax credit have. All EV manufacturers are being affected by it, and are changing their plans to deal with it. So the question is who will be affected the most. By the end of next year we should have some idea.

Unless the others continue screwing it up, Tesla should lose more market share next year too. But that isn't a bad thing. Tesla has achieved Musk's goal of kickstarting the EV industry, and is now moving on to other things. However they will continue making cars, just like IBM continued making PCs after the clones took over (until selling their PC divison to Chinese firm Lenovo in 2005).

Today Tesla announced that the Cybercab will be capable of having a steering wheel and pedals added. I predict they will do this because otherwise they won't get the production quantities they need to make the Cybercab affordable. The potential market for a small 'low cost' (US$25,000) EV is enormous, especially if it has autonomous driving (even if only 'supervised'). Other car makers had better have something similar ready for production next year if they want to beat Tesla.


We are clearly viewing and reading different things.


Down 40% in the last year in Europe. And overall the EV market grew in Europe
This isn't just a marginal decline. Musk and Trump took a sledgehammer to the Tesla brand and the world economy. Trump’s tariff policy is the worst economic policies since the Great Depression. And honestly Trump’s policies are worse than Smoot Hawley Act. Still both policies lead to retaliatory tarrifs. Trump is a bull in a china closet. He is killing American agriculture,, healthcare and American infrastructure. Trump is dumber than a box of rocks. And the whole world is paying for it. He's the American version of Putin. Corrupt and doesn’t care about all the people both are hurting.
 
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I never think things will happen that fast. There are almost always teething issues. Time is needed to perfect. Time is needed to develop a supply chain. In one of those videos I linked to, he really destroyed sodium for a grid storage battery. Which I thought was it's best application because the volumetric energy density was 30 percent than Lifepo. Much closer in gravimetric density.

Over time Sodium Ion batteries might eventually challenge Lithium. But in the meantime Lifepo keeps getting better and cheaper.
You'd be surprised how many people think that LFP will 'be dead by christmas'- and are telling people not to invest in LFP because 'sodium is here'...

Its far from being ready to surplant LFP imho...
 
Today Tesla announced that the Cybercab will be capable of having a steering wheel and pedals added. I predict they will do this because otherwise they won't get the production quantities they need to make the Cybercab affordable. The potential market for a small 'low cost' (US$25,000) EV is enormous, especially if it has autonomous driving (even if only 'supervised'). Other car makers had better have something similar ready for production next year if they want to beat Tesla.
Tesla announces a lot of things. I remember when they said they would make a $20,000 EV. You know how you can tell when Tesla and Musk are lying? Neither can anyone.

BYD and other Chinese manufacturers are making $25,000 dollar EVs today. Less expensive even. If they weren't shut out of the US market, Tesla would lose even more market share.
 
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You'd be surprised how many people think that LFP will 'be dead by christmas'- and are telling people not to invest in LFP because 'sodium is here'...

Its far from being ready to surplant LFP imho...
That's the hype. But I'd bet it will be at least two year before sodium has a 5% market share. CATL would probably be thrilled if it was half that.
 
I had a conversation today with the head of Lewis County transit agency. (Lewjs County is a mostly rural county South of Metropolitan Seattle and Tacoma) They have about 12 bus lines. They tried electric buses, but they worked poorly. The weight of the buses were too much of a drain. And the charging pad required a bus to be perfectly above the pad or it wouldn't charge effectively. The EV buses have been discontinued.

They have recently bought 3 hydrogen buses and the county built a hydrogen pumping station for the buses and other County vehicles. They will begin trying them out in two months.
 
I had a conversation today with the head of Lewis County transit agency. (Lewjs County is a mostly rural county South of Metropolitan Seattle and Tacoma) They have about 12 bus lines. They tried electric buses, but they worked poorly. The weight of the buses were too much of a drain. And the charging pad required a bus to be perfectly above the pad or it wouldn't charge effectively. The EV buses have been discontinued.

They have recently bought 3 hydrogen buses and the county built a hydrogen pumping station for the buses and other County vehicles. They will begin trying them out in two months.
EV buses have been in use in Sydney since 2016 when they started trialing BYD buses (ElectricBlu)
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They bought another 40 in 2017... and by 2020 were over 100 buses...
1761799284105.png
They don't use 'pads' (inefficient!!!), just good old fashioned plugin CCS2...
1761799423565.png
Parked up for the night charging another 400km tomorrow...
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https://www.truckandbus.net.au/how-...s-plaudits-for-electrifying-leichhardt-depot/
God that place has changed- I spent six months working there as an apprentice many decades ago- can't even recognise the place now...
(I hope they didn't just tear down the old tramshed workshop down the side though- it was an antique inside, but it was the last tram workshop left standing in Sydney at the time- and we used it to fix diesel buses...

Full circle- from electric trams, to electric buses (running on the overhead tram powerlines aka trolleybuses) to diesel buses, and now back to electric buses again....
 
There's no doubt in my mind that electric buses can work. I've been riding on buses connected to overhead wires my entire life. I just discussed how this small rural bus system tried them and their experiences.
 

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