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Merged The challenge is coming to an end.

The only way to get more mileage out of the same gimmick is to up the prize

And there's a major problem with that option, because even if JREF could get, say, ten million, no-one would believe they'd be prepared to risk or part with it. I mean, people say that about the million, "oh, James Randi will do anything to make sure he doesn't lose his money". What would they say about ten million? Who in their right mind would risk ten million dollars, it just sounds like there's has to be a catch. I think it would attract publicity for a short while, yes, but few claimants.

It would be a good one-off though, a fantastic publicity stuff. If JREF could get it done via insurance, then they could challenge, say, Sylvia Browne, to a Ten Million Dollar Charity Challenge. How could she or the press ignore that? It would only work once, though.
 
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Who in their right mind would risk ten million dollars, it just sounds like there's has to be a catch. I think it would attract publicity for a short while, yes, but few claimants.

But really, how much is $10m, compared with the money that could be made if a particular woo could demonstrate paranormal powers. It would be peanuts compared to his/her earning power on the world entertainment circuit.

Imagine in the USA alone, how much could I make if I demonstrated finding, well something by divining. Hell, ABBA knocked back $US 1 Billion to make a one time world tour in 2000.

Norm
 
But really, how much is $10m, compared with the money that could be made if a particular woo could demonstrate paranormal powers. It would be peanuts compared to his/her earning power on the world entertainment circuit.

It doesn't matter. Those arguments have consistently failed to work, as few enter the MDC. And one of the biggest objections to the challenge is that Randi doesn't want to part with the money. He claims he'd be delighted if someone one, the woos claim he'll do anything to make sure that doesn't happen. But $1m is at least conceivably affordable.

No-one in their right mind would risk ten million, as far as most people are concerned, and so there must clearly be a catch. The bigger the prize, the clearer it becomes (to those who might enter) that it's unwinnable. It's too big an amount to lose. Plus, there's the whole "I don't want to be a sideshow, thanks" side of the entertainment argument. Woos will come up with every excuse under the sun not to enter. The bigger the prize, the greater the cause for suspicion, and then you get the public sympathising with the woos too.

I appreciate what you're saying, but if your argument worked, then there would be more decent entries to the MDC. I suspect that your argument doesn't work because most woos have a nagging feeling that they might not be able to perform under scrunity. Cherrypicking psychics, particularly. And those who are outright frauds aren't convinced by any argument, for obvious reasons.
 
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I have mixed thoughts on the end of the MDC. On one hand, it makes for a great hammer...ie. "you claim to have powers, apply, prove it and you can be $1M richer just that easy."

On the other...I guess you'd have to look at who has been applying for the MDC. Certainly the big ticket folks like SB have avoided it like the plague. Rather, the JERF spends it's time with "I can make you pee", and other such trivial claims.

While I'd like to see it continue, I can see where using the money for other projects would have a bigger pay off.
 
So this was the Big News hinted at in last week's Commentary by the Big Man.

My initial reaction is holding, after having all day to mull. I think this is a good move by James Randi and JREF.

I've been a member of JREF for 10 years or so, a fan and admirer of James Randi even longer. This 1 million dollar challenge has certainly been a sexy and bold concept to throw out there at the folks speaking woo. I'd always use it as a sell point when speaking of James Randi and JREF, to friends and family and acquaintances and business clients and whomever would listen. You could see the ears perking up. It was an attention getter.

But I think it's good to see it go. My gut feeling is that the MDC is a tremendous drain on JREF and that's the reason for its impending fade out. The world has grown even more complex these last 10 or so years, which complicates many aspects of qualifying and evaluating and verifying and whatnot for the MDC. A labyrinthian enterprise. I believe JREF has sufficiently established itself as a force in its own right. The Internet makes it instantly accessible, planetwide. Therefore, a head-snapper big cash prize is hardly at the level of necessity it was in the mid-1990s. JREF has arrived and is here to stay.

Good call. I concur.
 
I'm pleased to hear this. The MDC was a gimmick and paranormal challenges date back in various incarnations, I believe, more than a hundred years. So, it is most definitely time to move on. Either find another, better gimmick or use the money for tangible, measurable work. I applaud JREF for using its assets for (hopefully!) the purposes of actual education in critical thinking, and not just as a prop for what usually turns out to be a bit of a pantomime. The latest test was severely lacking in dignity and 100% useless as a PR tool or indeed any sort of leverage whatsoever. And the press don't care about the MDC generally, so time to find another way to make a point.
Or, skip making points into the ether and start making a difference that can be measured.

With better PR, I think the MDC could have been more famous than it is, but that takes money and without releasing the million there obviously isn't any money, so...catch 22.

I look forward to seeing what the money will be used for.
What Teek said.

Why tie up a million dollars forever? Perhaps the only thing that might have been better was to have set a time limit from the beginning. Then change wouldn't have been an issue.

Have the woo claims decreased since the challenge? Has anyone who believed in woo stopped making their claims because of the challenge?

The challenge hopefully influenced those who might otherwise have believed in some woo to have second thoughts. That can still occur. We can still say the challenge was open for x number of years and no one could provide evidence for any woo during that time. That essentially covers all the usual traditional claims, talking to the dead, ESP, dowsing, homeopathy and so on.

I think the MDC has done all it can. What I hope to see the money used for if it is to be used for the JREF mission is twofold. First and foremost, I think we need to use science ourselves. Have we ever launched a study to actually discover and test methods for increasing critical thought in the population at large? I'll repeat what I have said many times, woo beliefs are not strictly the result of a knowledge deficit. Yet I suspect that 90% of the skeptics' approach to woo is to provide knowledge.

We counter claim after claim with demonstrable evidence. I have honed my arguments on some subjects to a fine point, yet sharing this information mostly changes the beliefs of the portion of the population which has already adopted evidence based beliefs. We make progress at a snail's pace. There are many scientists in the world and our body of scientific knowledge is growing exponentially. But do we even know how that is affecting the woo beliefs of the huge number of people in the world who don't use critical thinking and don't understand the difference between evidence based conclusions and superstition based conclusions? Have the incredible advances in science been accompanied by an equally growing number of rational thinkers?

Are schools producing at least a majority of critical thinkers? Considering how many people waste their money on woo products, how many people believe in witches and monsters, how many rush out to buy the latest book offering success if you just magically wish it so, and how many people including some of the leaders of the most powerful country in the world can't figure out the theory of evolution is NOT in question, it would appear that schools are failing miserably.

There are marketers who study the science of changing people's beliefs. There are any number of Discovery Institute like religious think tanks out there studying the science of getting people to believe science and critical thinking are not the best option. There is a worldwide Evangelical movement that is paying particular attention to what is successful and what isn't, and that has allowed them to spread their anti-science message to millions worldwide.

All the while the scientific community is still only addressing the knowledge deficit. Where are our scientific studies looking at why people believe weird things? We have a couple books and a couple people thinking about it. Where is the research? Why are we not using the same science that the anti-science crowd is using against promoting critical thinking?

And the second thing I'd put the million toward were it up to me would then be implementing the methods of change developed from the scientific research and evaluate the effectiveness.

So end the MDC, that is not such a bad idea. But think about the scientific process. Practice what we love to preach. Research the problem. Develop solutions based on the research. Implement the solutions. Evaluate the effectiveness. Adopt the effective solutions based on the scientific approach. What is wrong with us that we are not doing that already?
 
I'm all for the change. The challenge has proven its point. I don't understand the two year wait to end it though. Why not in six months?
 
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My major concern is with how this has been communicated.

"The James Randi Educational Foundation Million-Dollar Challenge will be discontinued 24 months from this coming March 6th, and those prize funds will then be available to generally add to our flexibility. This move will free us to do many more projects, which will be announced at that time. "

As a financial donor to the JREF, I would be much more comfortable knowing more detail about that these projects are, and why such a large cash infusion is required. If there are specific projects in the wings that have NOT been done to this point because of a lack of capital - why is this? Why weren't these worthy projects brought forward and specific fundraising for these projects sought? Personally, while there is much work that COULD and probably SHOULD be undertaken by the JREF, I cannot see where money has been the barrier. Time perhaps, lack of cohesion on an administrative / membership basis is also another 'reason' - but I have never known capital to be a reason for not undertaking an important piece of work.

If the JREF is choosing to become like many other grassroots organizations, then I think now more than ever is the time for the JREF to communicate to its members the mandate & the vision of the JREF, and to select which projects are going to become primary focal points for the work of the JREF.

The Foundation is at an enviable stage of growth - it has a core, active, involved membership - a membership who are willing to contribute, to attend seminars & to purchase group vacations. It also has amassed capital in the amount of $1 million which can quite easily generate $75 - $100k a year in operating revenue, managed carefully and prudently (and free from the regulations governing the money when held for the MDC).

The reasons for killing the MDC are fine with me - and while there will be issues around its ending & potentially some bad press, I'm sure Randi & his board went into this eyes wide open. Now I'd like to see a strong clear message from Randi & his board to explain 'what next' - and to what valuable pursuits will the JREF be applying itself & its not inconsiderable cash assets? The traditional 'all will be revealed in good time' approach will no longer cut the mustard for this donor.

Change is fine - and often is a good thing. But change MANAGEMENT is critical. Communication to the membership will be what pulls the JREF through this transition - I hope Mr. Randi will take the time to make it happen.

Without sounding critical, it has been my observation that while Randi has successfully built a committed team to assist him in running / managing aspects of the JREF, he has not empowered this team by delegating authority to let them get on with things. Perhaps this change of direction will also assist in helping the JREF get its own house in order.
 
I'm all for the change. The challenge has proven its point. I don't understand the two year wait to end it though. Why not in six months?

So that nobody can say "Randi knew I was about to apply, and discontinued it so I wouldn't win the million" -- and so everyone who is currently "making preparations" on the forum can't say that either.

With two years' lead time, nobody can pretend they don't or didn't get any warning that it was going away.
 
As a financial donor to the JREF, I would be much more comfortable knowing more detail about that these projects are, and why such a large cash infusion is required.

One million $$ US is not that huge a cash infusion for any organization, not when a group is competing against corporate churches with operating budgets of nearly one billion $$. I doubt a million would pay for JREF headquarters with real estate as high as it is.
 
The Atheist already has a $2 million NZ challenge set up

From what I've read on this forum, there were many questions on the existence of that two million.

Even if it's legit, two million isn't much sweeter than one. In the US, it would only be worth half as taxes take half the total amount.
 
So that nobody can say "Randi knew I was about to apply, and discontinued it so I wouldn't win the million" -- and so everyone who is currently "making preparations" on the forum can't say that either.

With two years' lead time, nobody can pretend they don't or didn't get any warning that it was going away.
The same is true with six months.
 
Personally, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with redirecting the money. I sincerely hope, though, that Randi isn’t deciding to cease testing paranormal claims altogether.

Scientists aren’t going to (and shouldn’t) waste their time. Regulatory agencies can’t be bothered. The news media do a crap awful job of it. And pseudoscientists exacerbate the problem.

There may be other skeptical organizations providing a challenge, but Randi is unique in certain ways, particularly regarding his skills as a magician, his showmanship, and his ability to communicate.

Not that he should continue testing anyone who comes a-knocking. I just hope he’ll leave the door open to testing major, novel, or otherwise noteworthy claims that will agree to a protocol, million dollars or no.
 
Trends change over the years and I think that is what's happening here. CSICOP reorganized as CSI last year.
 
Cash pays 4.5-5.0% currently, maybe even a bit more, depending on the instrument. Zero risk. TA is suggesting that the JREF could earn only 10-20% of that.

Like I said, now we know why he has no money.

TA's figures regarding the interest on the million are those from the JREF's own filed returns, I think. The numbers certainly rang a bell with me, anyway.
 
Well, I knew it. That's it. From now on I will never be able to tell people "You know what? If he/she thinks he can do it, there's this guy with a Million Dollar challenge".

I'm thinking maybe someone will come up with a different kind of challenge. Maybe not a Million Dollar Challenge but a "Eat all the chocolate you want for a week Challenge" or the "Don't pay taxes for the rest of your life Challenge" (Hey that last one would probably work better than a Million Dollar Challenge, don't you think?)

No, I mean, seriously.

Consider it our way of saying "we know you're full of it, so apply anyway"
 
One million $$ US is not that huge a cash infusion for any organization, not when a group is competing against corporate churches with operating budgets of nearly one billion $$. I doubt a million would pay for JREF headquarters with real estate as high as it is.

I disagree - a million (and the passive income it provides) is HEAPS to run a small organization (which the JREF is) - particularly when such organization now has VERY little on its slated agenda. Beyond Randi's public appearances (which generate revenue & are cashflow positive), a package holiday once a year (revenue positive), a meeting (or two) a year (should be revenue positive), a volunteer run & funded forum (cashflow neutral), a weekly online newsletter (small expense) and a few sporadic mailed-out publications (small/moderate expense) - what are the planned expenses? Nothing that has been expressed to the membership! (apart from some VERY minor educational scholarships - which while a step in the right direction, are certainly not major budget line objects.)

This is the key to my argument. Discontinue the challenge because its run its course - fine. WHAT is now the mandate & plan of attack? As a multi-year member of the JREF (membership fees fully paid), a regular attendee of TAMs and TAAs, and a vocal supporter, this recent announcement leaves me saying 'now what?'.

What competition against better funded churches is even underway? Has the JREF ever stated that 'competing' against churches is part of its mandate? We have a pot of money that while, pales in comparison to some other organizations is SOMETHING - and is something that a lot of organizations would be very pleased to have. If not the challenge, then now what?!?!? And for Ed's sake, please do NOT let the answer be 'I'll tell you later...' - because that just does NOT cut it.

-AH.
 

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