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Merged The challenge is coming to an end.

Cuddles said:
However, it really opens the field for accusations that he is scared of actually putting anything substantial at risk.
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The Challenge is dependent on the possibility that a claimant performing as she claims she can, will win a substantial amount of money. It is not dependent on the money being "at risk", although Randi originally used the expression of putting his money where his mouth is".
 
steenkh said:
The Challenge is dependent on the possibility that a claimant performing as she claims she can, will win a substantial amount of money. It is not dependent on the money being "at risk", although Randi originally used the expression of putting his money where his mouth is".
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You're only looking at this from the point of view of reality. You have to consider it from the perspective of someone who actually believes that they have paranormal powers. From their point of view, the only reason for refusing to put a prize at stake is because you think you will lose it. It really is entirely dependent on there being something at stake, otherwise most people just won't see the point in it, and most people is what the challenge is all about.
 
Cuddles said:
It really is entirely dependent on there being something at stake, otherwise most people just won't see the point in it, and most people is what the challenge is all about.
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I beg to differ. It has been made abundantly clear that the prize money was a donation that was held out of reach of Randi. He has not had his own money at risk for a long time.

Besides, it is an error to measure the success of the MDC in terms of how many claimants who accept, and in what degree the claimants are deluded. The success of the MDC lies in its mere existence. Whenever I have mentioned the MDC to woos and "normal" people, the winning argument was that most psychics, healers etc will not apply for the MDC, and that the only ones to actually apply were obviously deluded. Sane people can see the logic in that, and they know that if these psychics knew they could do as they claim, they would not hesitate in scooping up an easy million dollars. The risk for Randi is not a factor here.

Even hardcore woos can see the point in the fact that the most recent challenge test was of a woman who thought she could make people pee involuntarily, whereas Sylvia Browne stays a mile away from the Challenge. Only then comes the adversarial arguments into play about the money not existing, the whole setup being rigged, or that real psychics would never want to be tested. These arguments are arguments of desperation because the MDC is such a devastating card on our hand, and to keep the card, we need to be able to counter those argument with proofs that the money exists, that the tests are fair, and that the test is not a humiliation of the claimant.
 
danfcon1 said:
Is it be possible to obtain a bond from an insurance company that would guarantee the prize? I seem to remember that Lloyds of London assures against all sorts of loony things from happening, perhaps they could sell JREF a bond at a reasonable price that would permit the challenge to continue, yet allow the capital to be released.
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This seems to run on a similar principle, if I'm not mistaken. Forum member The Atheist will most likely respond to sensible inquiries you might have.

And welcome to the forum, danfcon1.
 
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:
How about a challenge with no prize at all? Then we can listen to all the people who used to say "I don't do it for the money" instead say "Why would I do it for free?"

~~ Paul
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That would be neat! Heck, a diamond-encrusted titanium diploma or certificate from the JREF with "(insert name here) took the challenge and won!" should be as prestigious if not more, you think?

I'd love to see the funds used for Education, like ongoing hosting of podcasts, vodcasts, forums, etc. Maybe some 30 minute weekly show on PBS or the BBC or whatever satellite channel would bring more awareness of science vs unprovable woo, and do a lot more for the Foundation than the MDC "gimmick" would.

I still hate to see it go, since it's helped so much and I think it can still help much, but there are other avenues for promoting skepticism these days and the million would certainly be useful if applied correctly.
 
The media requirement makes it easier for those who are likely to fail.
It is therefore not a bona fide challenge, but a meaningless publicity gimmick
 
JREF isn't going to spend the million. It isn't JREF's to spend. It was put in trust by the donor. It's the donor who wants to spend it. Or his heirs ? ( possible Johny Carson link?)

Unless the 'donor' is Randi, who had a recent near fatal experience, which may have changed his long term outlook, as facing one's own mortality may do.

Otherwise, some other donor, or a handfull of smaller donors, could keep the MDC going? But no talk of that, so I'm thinking it's Randi's decision, probably looking towards retirement.

Or maybe Randi knows something we don't? Re: the reality of paranormality? ;)
 
casebro said:
JREF isn't going to spend the million. It isn't JREF's to spend. It was put in trust by the donor. It's the donor who wants to spend it. Or his heirs ? ( possible Johny Carson link?)

Unless the 'donor' is Randi, who had a recent near fatal experience, which may have changed his long term outlook, as facing one's own mortality may do.

Otherwise, some other donor, or a handfull of smaller donors, could keep the MDC going? But no talk of that, so I'm thinking it's Randi's decision, probably looking towards retirement.

Or maybe Randi knows something we don't? Re: the reality of paranormality? ;)
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Randi's already answered this. The money isn't the issue, it's simply that he's fed up of wasting so much time with the challenge when the vast majority of applicants are incapable of following simple rules or are just insane. Instead, he wants to divert the JREF's time and resources to more useful things, although exactly what they will be has not yet been clarified, other than continuing, and possibly expanding, existing things like the scholarships. The donor has agreed to let Randi use the money for other purposes when the challenge ends.
 
Hey, I have a question.

The day the Challenge ends, is there gonna be some kind of social meeting or something? Since the challenge is ending, there should be some sort of goodbye anniversary I think. I´m asking of course, because if there is, I would like to come.
 
Ron_Tomkins said:
Hey, I have a question.

The day the Challenge ends, is there gonna be some kind of social meeting or something? Since the challenge is ending, there should be some sort of goodbye anniversary I think. I´m asking of course, because if there is, I would like to come.
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That sounds like a nice idea to me. I hope the powers that be are thinking along those lines.

On the Johnny Carson rumor above: Does anybody know the source of it? Did it just become a rumor because it's plausible or was there ever the tiniest bit of substance beyond that to it? I thought we were going to learn the truth when Carson died. I did an internet search and came across some discussion where several people said that they thought it was Carson. One individual said that Randi hinted it was. Did Randi hint that it was Carson?

I wonder who is in on the secret.

Randi?
Linda?
Jeff?
Lawyers?
Bankers?
Carlos? (Jose Olliver)
Kramer?
Penn or Teller?
Spouse or relatives of the donor?
Renata? (She's the person I first heard the rumor from)
Darat?


I wonder if there is any chance Randi would answer even these kind of tangential questions about the issue.

Has Randi confirmed at least that he is not the donor?
 
Ah surprise, surprise...NO CHALLENGERS!:jaw-dropp
Really that alone should tell people something. Not Skeptics mind you. I don't think any skeptic should be surprised but this is the sort of thing that's good to mention to those people who say that skeptics are "party poopers", cynics and are mean-spirited.

The paranormal "practictioners"just don't like lab trials and they use those well worn excuses. i.e. "we can't just make it work anytime"ït won't work under lab conditions"etc.
Maybe this will convince many of those on the fence juts how suspect paranormal claims are when a million dollars won't entice them to try and prove their claims. But then...

I'm reminded of James Randi's "floating duck" metaphor.
 
skeptic of oz said:
Ah surprise, surprise...NO CHALLENGERS!:jaw-dropp
Really that alone should tell people something. Not Skeptics mind you. I don't think any skeptic should be surprised but this is the sort of thing that's good to mention to those people who say that skeptics are "party poopers", cynics and are mean-spirited.

The paranormal "practictioners"just don't like lab trials and they use those well worn excuses. i.e. "we can't just make it work anytime"ït won't work under lab conditions"etc.
Maybe this will convince many of those on the fence juts how suspect paranormal claims are when a million dollars won't entice them to try and prove their claims. But then...

I'm reminded of James Randi's "floating duck" metaphor.
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You might want to familiarize yourself with this thread -- http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=113290 -- If the JREF wants a lab trial of the Ganzfeld, it should modify its rules in the way I suggest.
 
Yea, modify the rules so that the results can be ambiguous and that cheating can occur. Nice. :rolleyes:
 
thaiboxerken said:
Yea, modify the rules so that the results can be ambiguous and that cheating can occur. Nice. :rolleyes:
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Here are the modifications to the Challenge Rules that I recommended in my e-mail:

"(1) An applicant must pass a preliminary test, in which the general
criterion for success will be that the applicant must perform at
significantly above the chance level. In tests where the odds of
success can be readily calculated -- such as numbers guessing -- the
applicant must perform at least at the P=.001 level; that is, the odds
must be only one in one thousand that the applicant could have
achieved that performance level by random chance. (However, if the
applicant achieves a lesser, but above chance, performance level in a
limited number of tests -- for example, if the applicant performs at
the P=.05 level in 20 trials -- the preliminary test may be extended
on a different day or days to include more trials.) If the applicant
passes the preliminary test, a final test will be administered, in
which the performance level must meet a significantly more stringent
criterion for the million dollar prize to be awarded. In tests where
the odds of success can be readily calculated, the applicant must
perform at least at the P=.000001 level; that is, for the prize to be
awarded, the odds must be only one in one million that the applicant
could have achieved that performance level by random chance.

"(2) All protocols, including time-consuming ones such as Ganzfeld
experiments, are eligible for the Challenge; or

"(2a) Some time-consuming protocols, such as Ganzfeld experiments, are
not eligible for the Challenge due to the impact on JREF resources."

Please explain how these modifications would be ambiguous or permit cheating.
 
Rodney said:
"(1)
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Introduces ambiguity and a goal of simply cheating the odds instead of proving a phenomena.

"(2) All protocols, including time-consuming ones such as Ganzfeld
experiments, are eligible for the Challenge; or
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All protocols = protocols that allow for cheating. If all protocols are eligible, then those protocols that are shoddy or outright stupid will be allowed as well.
 
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