The cautious Obama resurgence?

[BenBurch]

President Obama is the best Republican President we've had since Dwight Eisenhower.

I expect reelection by a landslide.

Pretty much, yeah.

 

[leftysergeant]

President Obama is the best Republican President we've had since Dwight Eisenhower.

You mean the only one with common sense and a conscience? That used to be considered desireable in American politics. Republicans used to opride themselves on displaying such qualities.

Among today's republicons, it just gets in the way of profits.

 

[Francesca R]

The Gingrichification of the Republican primary contest has given Obama a three point Intrade bounce to 54.9%.

 

[Neally]

Although lagging behind the SC primary, the poll of polls has BO over Romney by just 1.9 points, which is down from 2.5 as reported earlier in this thread, showing again that the "cautious Obama resurgence" was a temporary bounce.

 

[zaphod2016]

January 1, 2012:

I expect reelection by a landslide.

January 22, 2012:

The Gingrichification of the Republican primary contest has given Obama a three point Intrade bounce to 54.9%.

April 9, 2012:

Intrade has Obama by 60%

I'm going to assume that this election year is a real snore among the sane and rational? As of now, would anybody around here bet against Obama 2012?

 

[BravesFan]

This tends to happen during Primaries (for both parties) the indies and unknowns only see the worst of the candidates as they scramble to grab the votes of the base from each other. Once the Conventions happen and the real election takes over. Who know??? The public is a very fickle creature and little things can change things dramatically (see the poll numbers for Dukakis before and after he rode around in that tank looking ridiculous).

 

[BenBurch]

Obama is conducting himself as though he was doing this for the record, nothing more. He clearly does not expect a serious challenge, but is also unwilling to adopt a Rose Garden strategy as he needs big, big coattails to get his agenda enacted.

So, the real question is whether he can get the House and Senate?

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

January 1, 2012:

I expect reelection by a landslide.

January 22, 2012:

The Gingrichification of the Republican primary contest has given Obama a three point Intrade bounce to 54.9%.

April 9, 2012:

Intrade has Obama by 60%

I'm going to assume that this election year is a real snore among the sane and rational? As of now, would anybody around here bet against Obama 2012?

While your general point is probably correct, I'd point out that Intrade is not a poll and that percentage does not reflect probable election numbers. That 60% can be seen as a measure of the market's degree of confidence that Obama will win (by any margin) and not a measure of how many voters are likely to vote for him. It doesn't say anything about the margin of victory.

 

[zaphod2016]

That 60% can be seen as a measure of the market's degree of confidence that Obama will win (by any margin)

So, the real question is whether he can get the House and Senate?

Can he "beat the spread" so to speak?

I'm down here in Florida, damn tempted to vote for ole' Mr. Obama.

What does he do with a 2nd term? Will we get some good ole' fashioned liberal idealism, or more calm, steady, right-of-center leadership?

 

[BenBurch]

Can he "beat the spread" so to speak?

I'm down here in Florida, damn tempted to vote for ole' Mr. Obama.

What does he do with a 2nd term? Will we get some good ole' fashioned liberal idealism, or more calm, steady, right-of-center leadership?

Something in-between is most likely. Probably only slightly to the left of where he is now.