The Case of the Missing E3

[Oystein]

The funny thing is, what may be unimportant to one person, may be very important to another. If this hits the masses (you know, the average person, 99% of which have never heard of JREF) in the wrong context, then there can be a significant impact.
...

It would become important to those with foregone conclusions only.
Any error or lie about any event on any day could become important that way.

 

[Dave Rogers]

What happens if you look with the same scrutiny at logs for 9/10/2001 or 9/11/2000? Would you not expect to find similar unexplained inconsistencies between some two logs that record the same events from different perspectives, and maybe a third and still different testimony from some witness?

^ This.

Any anomalies concerning 9/11 are potentially significant only to the extent that they deviate from the background level of anomalies expected, which can best be estimated from the documentary records of events on other days when nothing so significant occurred. It's the equivalent to the control group in a drug evaluation; if 75% of people given a drug for a specific condition recover within thirty days, that's meaningless if 75% of people not given the drug recover within thirty days. Equally, if we find that there is, for example, typically one discrepancy with other sources for every one hundred log entries on 9/11, this is insignificant if there is also typically one discrepancy per hundred entries on 9/11/2000. It's one of the more subtle incarnations of the monster I have created that calls itself the Unevaluated Inequality Fallacy; what is interesting is not whether the logs of 9/11 are erroneous, but whether they are more erroneous than we would expect.

Dave

 

[Reheat]

I did a screen capture of these three planes that might help people understand what I am looking at.

That looks like 3 airplanes in the same general area at the same time. I see no coordination or synchronization of the movements at all. It happens all of the time, if you look for it and have the radar records.....

The one that is going much faster than the others (assuming they are all affected the same) is going "balls to the wall". Are you sure that's not a fighter or a formation of fighters?

ETA: NEADS noted 4 F-15's in that log. Did they launch?

 

[BCR]

It would become important to those with foregone conclusions only.
Any error or lie about any event on any day could become important that way.

Thank you for agreeing. Important to have the facts straight.

 

[BCR]

That looks like 3 airplanes in the same general area at the same time. I see no coordination or synchronization of the movements at all. It happens all of the time, if you look for it and have the radar records.....

The one that is going much faster than the others (assuming they are all affected the same) is going "balls to the wall". Are you sure that's not a fighter or a formation of fighters?

ETA: NEADS noted 4 F-15's in that log. Did they launch?

I have not drilled that one down, but I am told no.

 

[Reheat]

I have not drilled that one down, but I am told no.

It could be F-15's out of Langley going to cover the launch of the E4B out of WP, but they didn't hang around after the E4B entered that Cloverleaf orbit, but went back NW again.

Langley had only F-15's and the Hooligan NORAD bunch at the time permanently based there. There might be support type aircraft in the way of C-21's or something of similar nature. There could also have been transient aircraft of virtually any type there, but since this is after the Ground stop they would not have launched except for MISSION REQUIRED purposes. Returning to their base of origin would not have been mission required in the least.

The only thing even remotely strange is that the aircraft launched out of Langley went NW of WP and then flew back toward the orbit of the E4B then went back NW again.

If that's wasn't F-15's I have no clue.

 

[BCR]

The only planes I see coming out of Langley after 1300 and prior to 1545 which are clearly fighters are the QUIT fighters. The PACER is a single aircraft.

 

[Reheat]

The only planes I see coming out of Langley after 1300 and prior to 1545 which are clearly fighters are the QUIT fighters. The PACER is a single aircraft.

It appears to me that return that that went to Ohio that you're concerned about came from Langley, no?

Well, let's look at some possibilities... SCATANA procedure were not implemented, only a portion of them (smart move). Therefore, the NORAD Commander did not own the skies. Note in the NEADS log entry that there is reference to obtaining OPCON from ACC to NORAD of the Langley F-15s. Further, if the ACC Commander did not agree he conceivably could have launched a couple of F-15s to cover an ACC asset, the E4B. There should have been coordination with NEADS, but did they record that in their log?

Also, note that typically in a formation of fighters ONLY the leader squawks a Mode 3 Code. You will NEVER be able to detect more than one aircraft in close formation of 2 or 4 or even more fighters if they are in close formation and following standard procedures. They are one return with one squawk. There's a lot of excellent examples of this that I could discuss, but not in an open Forum.

There would be FAA Records, and since you don't see anything in NEADS logs I'd suggest looking elsewhere such as FAA Records.

I can not find the Pacer call sign in permanent use by anyone. All combat type aircraft use random computer generated call signs that may not be as manly as most would prefer. There is no choice, the machine decides!

These comments are nothing more than suggestions to help you make progress. I do not intend to imply anything at all.

 

[Cheap Shot]

By the looks of it the logs seem to be hand written. If you find the letters AW anywhere that could be the indication of the AWACS orbit. Most of them are described that way. AW-710 is an orbit up north over water in a warning area. There are some named near the closest NAVAID, but most have the AW insignia. If they did hold they would not be directly over DC but like Reheat said probably about 100 to 140 miles out. They would pretty much fly about a 70 mile orbit pattern.

 

[BCR]

By the looks of it the logs seem to be hand written. If you find the letters AW anywhere that could be the indication of the AWACS orbit. Most of them are described that way. AW-710 is an orbit up north over water in a warning area. There are some named near the closest NAVAID, but most have the AW insignia. If they did hold they would not be directly over DC but like Reheat said probably about 100 to 140 miles out. They would pretty much fly about a 70 mile orbit pattern.

We think we have found him. It is an E3 with coordinates 35 45 N 91 46 W. That is over northern Arkansas just northwest of Memphis. The reason he does not show up in my radar data is simply because it does not extend that far west ... cool

The NEADS audios that Miles Kara was kind enough to share have a record of its coordinates on the D20010911Drm2-20010910-132335_DRM002_1.ARC\DRM002\5\1\C0205_11_09_2001_135906.wav audio. At 1421 he is located east of Tinker AFB.

Not quite over DC, but headed in that general direction.

ETA: Might I just add ... ain't science fun!

 

[Oystein]

We think we have found him. It is an E3 with coordinates 35 45 N 91 46 W. That is over northern Arkansas just northwest of Memphis. The reason he does not show up in my radar data is simply because it does not extend that far west ... cool

The NEADS audios that Miles Kara was kind enough to share have a record of its coordinates on the D20010911Drm2-20010910-132335_DRM002_1.ARC\DRM002\5\1\C0205_11_09_2001_135906.wav audio. At 1421 he is located east of Tinker AFB.

[qimg]http://i1138.photobucket.com/albums/n525/John_Farmer/e3_neads_pos.jpg[/qimg]

Not quite over DC, but headed in that general direction.

ETA: Might I just add ... ain't science fun!

Urr you have found a E3.
How does this square with

1430 entry - B475 E-3 diverted to Washington DC
1439 entry - B475 on station. Need tanker by 1830Z

18 minutes after being east of Tinker, over Arkansas, and after being diverted to DC, the bird is already on station? Maybe I don't understand what "on station" means?

The 552d Air Control Wing has 6 Air Control Squadrons and 1 Training Squadron flying E3 AWACS out of Tinker AFB, OK, so don't be surprised to find such birds nearby. (Yes, I know, all air traffic was grounded by 1421, so any E3 not flying home was probably on a mission to guard against further attacks by then)

 

[BCR]

Okay, this bird (the one referenced on the NEADS audio at the time of the log entry) comes into the coverage of my radar data at 1536 squawking Mode 3 = 2355. At 1637 he takes up a circular holding pattern just off the coast south of DC (as predicted by Reheat, Oystein and Cheap Shot).

From the ACI log there should be one more in the area. So we'll keep looking for the other one just to make sure we have the right one

 

[BCR]

Urr you have found a E3.

As qualified with "We think we have found him."

ETA: The AST operator, Sgt LaMarche is clear in his idenification "B475". That is the log corresponding entry. Valid points, but this is the logged E3 reference.

Put it all together for those who don't want to dig through all the files.



The E3 discussion begins at 1:55 in the YT video.

 

[BCR]

Now I am ready to offer a hypothesis. Kuczynski may, or may not have been the pilot for this particular E3, but assuming that he was for the sake of argument, his original mission may have been to try to get a better track on UAL93 and other planes which at that point appeared suspicious. Kuczynski was a relatively new pilot and essentially was telling a 'war story'. Every pilot involved with 9/11 had a 'war story' which turned out to be erroneous to one degree or the other when evaluated against the radar and other information (reminds me of those CIT NoC witnesses).

So Kuczynski is guilty of telling 'war stories' to his school newspaper. He may well have been the pilot of this E3, but from what I can tell, not much of a 'war story' in its flight so Kuczynski embellished a little (you should hear some of my old cop 'war stories' sometimes). Seems like the most rational scenario from my perspective.

I'm happy with this hypothesis for the NEADS E3 v Kuczynski account reconciliation. Unless of course someone has a better one, I think we have ruled out Romulan cloaking technology.

Thanks for the help fellars!

 

[WildCat]

The one that is going much faster than the others (assuming they are all affected the same) is going "balls to the wall". Are you sure that's not a fighter or a formation of fighters?

Looks to me like it went ~500 miles in 1:09, so that's just under 440 mph, which doesn't seem that crazy to me.

 

[Reheat]

Looks to me like it went ~500 miles in 1:09, so that's just under 440 mph, which doesn't seem that crazy to me.

You're correct. I didn't measure it, but just eyeballed it in relation to the other tracks. That's about .66 Mach assuming the altitude of around FL 380 is correct. A Lear 35 (C-21) would cruise at about 460 mph, so it very likely was a Lear flying S L O W.....

 

[Cheap Shot]

Most orbits are oblong, about 20 to 25 miles wide and about 70 miles long, that doesn't mean an orbit could be circular, I am onlfamiliar with the 6 Orbits in Boston Center's airspace. I have an old file of all of the orbits I'll try and find it and see what we have down by Washington. if you have seen my desk it may take a while.

 

[Oystein]

Now I am ready to offer a hypothesis. Kuczynski may, or may not have been the pilot for this particular E3, but assuming that he was for the sake of argument, his original mission may have been to try to get a better track on UAL93 and other planes which at that point appeared suspicious. Kuczynski was a relatively new pilot and essentially was telling a 'war story'. Every pilot involved with 9/11 had a 'war story' which turned out to be erroneous to one degree or the other when evaluated against the radar and other information (reminds me of those CIT NoC witnesses).

So Kuczynski is guilty of telling 'war stories' to his school newspaper. He may well have been the pilot of this E3, but from what I can tell, not much of a 'war story' in its flight so Kuczynski embellished a little (you should hear some of my old cop 'war stories' sometimes). Seems like the most rational scenario from my perspective.

I'm happy with this hypothesis for the NEADS E3 v Kuczynski account reconciliation. Unless of course someone has a better one, I think we have ruled out Romulan cloaking technology.

Thanks for the help fellars!

An E3 has two teams aboard:
- Flight Crew (pilot, co-pilot, engineer and navigator, at least back in 1993 on the NATO E3s; I think they dropped the navigator sometime)
- Mission Crew (weapons controllers, radar ops and techs, comm ops and techs...)
Both have a commander: Pilot, and Mission Commander. While it is true that, in case of conflict or emergency, the E3 pilot gives the top orders, he is not really the guy to talk to concerning a mission. His job is basically to taxi the mission crew to their destination pattern, and circle around there a bit till lunch. The Mission Commander calls all the operational shots, and, if necessary, asks the pilot to fly elsewhere, if the mission requires this.
The pilot is briefed on the overall mission, of course, but may well be quite unaware of what happens behind his back on the radar screens and communications workstations, and sometimes of why and what they really do. I wouldn't be too surprised if the pilot didn't know till after the mission that they had watched UA93.

So I would not give too much weight to what the cockpit commander told of this particular sortie.

 

[Reheat]

So I would not give too much weight to what the cockpit commander told of this particular sortie.

There is no freaking way a Lt was EVER the Aircraft Commander of an AWACS. A Co-pilot yes, but not an Aircraft Commander of that asset.

 

[Oystein]

There is no freaking way a Lt was EVER the Aircraft Commander of an AWACS. A Co-pilot yes, but not an Aircraft Commander of that asset.

Ah!
Yes, most E3 pilots I remember were Majors, or Lt. Colonels. Maybe a newbe Captain would be trained to be co-pilot, but never a Lt.
Same with Mission Commanders.