The AI Bubble ... and Larry Ellison

[TragicMonkey]

too much dumb money trading off algorithms analyzing tweets and index funds. these guys have figured out how to exploit that stuff, rather than building strong businesses imo

It does seem to be a game of let's pretend, and as long as everyone keeps on pretending it'll keep afloat.

I just wish it would either pop now, or never: I'm a delicate number of years away from retirement. There's juuuuust enough time for me to recover if everything goes pop right now.

 

[dirtywick]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-expected-to-tell-investors-it-sees-over-30-trillion-in-potential-revenue-a611efea

anthropic ipo to claim a $30t addressable market, larger than spacex $28t

 

[dirtywick]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sanjitsinghdang/2026/08/22/nvidia-as-the-new-banker-for-ai-gold-rush/

forbes calls nvidia bank for the ai gold rush

 

[dann]

This is how the AI bubble pops | Cory Doctorow (The Tech Report on YouTube, Sep 10, 2026 – 56:52 min.)
“If ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ is what you do when you’ve grown your market all you can and then you squeeze it, then AI is what happens when you run out of squeezing.”
Author of The Reverse Centaur’s Guide To Life After AI Cory Doctorow join The Tech Report’s Isaac Pound to talk about the the narrative and economics of Artificial Intelligence and why the AI bubble needs to end sooner rather than later.

◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ is a term coined by Cory Doctorow's and the title of one of his books.

 

[LiteBright]

I came across this chart which I found very interesting. Basically, they picked starting points of both the late-90s internet boom and the AI trade and charted the Nasdaq composite index over the same timeframe. Its been roughly 900 days since ChatGPT was first released.



The starting points may be a bit arbitrary (was the release of netscape really the beginning of the internet?) but the trajectory is very close. The gray line represents the collapse of a hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management which was over-leveraged on the internet trade and got hit hard by a small dip. Not unlike Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund which just collapsed for the very same reason a few weeks ago.

First, although the AI buildout trade looks overheated, we have not yet reached the insane levels of that era. Time will tell if the AI trade follows the same trajectory. Somehow I would like to think that some people have learned lessons about the mistakes of that era but that's overly optimistic.

Second, the rise of the retail trader since the pandemic has made the market even more irrational than it was in those days. The ability of anyone to use 1.5x, 2x, even 3x daily leverage to juice returns without understanding the math behind what they are doing is incredibly dangerous, especially in a time when so many people feel that the traditional economy has and is failing them. The temptation to make 'all-in' bets is stronger than ever before and now any 18 year old can do it from their phone.

 

[dirtywick]

at 8m patrick boyle explains ipo prices, revenues, and growth and total addressable market