Telepathy

[Startz]

It's ... um ... 1/52*2/51*3/50*4/49*5/48
So that's 240 / 311875200
Which is 1:1299480

But even at 1:1000, I think that's a demonstration that warrants at least a second test.

I don't think that's right. But as I said, combinatorics ain't my strong point

I'll post my code and results in case anyone is interested, but I don't want to get in the way of King and LL actually doing the test.

 

[Startz]

function checkMatches
%{
fun function for ISF

Dick Startz
September 2017
%}

rng('default');
nSims = 100000000;
minNumber = 5;
matches = zeros(nSims,1);
for iSim = 1:nSims
    matches(iSim) = sum(randperm(52) == randperm(52));
end
figure;
histogram(matches);
title([num2str(sum(matches>=minNumber)),' successes in ',...
    num2str(nSims),' trials']);
disp(['Probability of ',num2str(minNumber),' or more = ',...
    num2str(sum(matches>=minNumber)/nSims)]);

prob = nan(10,1);
for iProb = 1:10
    prob(iProb) = sum(matches>=iProb)/nSims;
end
figure;
plot(1:10,prob,'linewidth',2);
title('probability of getting k or more matches out of 52 cards');
xlabel('k')
ylabel('probability');
[(1:10)',prob]

end

 

[Startz]

 

[Startz]

 

[Startz]

Output:
>> checkMatches
Probability of 5 or more = 0.0036641
ans =
1.0000 0.6321
2.0000 0.2642
3.0000 0.0803
4.0000 0.0190
5.0000 0.0037
6.0000 0.0006
7.0000 0.0001
8.0000 0.0000
9.0000 0.0000
10.0000 0.0000

 

[Loss Leader]

5 cards seems about right for a preliminary, unscientific test. Doing it twice would be enough in my mind for more controlled, more scientific testing.

 

[Darat]

It doesn't seem to exist. There is an extrapolation you're making from results in scientific settings to reality in general. Mistakes have been made along those lines before.



I agree with this.

If "telepathy" exists on earth it has nothing to do with what has been described as telepathy in the past.

To use an analogy. This is like you claiming you have an elephant in your garage and you say you know this because you can feel it, smell it and see it. I turn up at your garage, we open the door and I don't see an elephant, I walk around your garage and don't bump into an elephant, I take deep sniffs all around your garage but can't smell an elephant.

In what way at all is what you claim to exist in your garage an elephant even if we grant there is something unknown in your garage?

Telepathy as has been described and claimed in the past is like your elephant, it has certain characteristics none of which has any correspondence to the gaps you are now trying to shove telepathy into. In other words you are redefining telepathy and saying it now means something but you don't know what characteristics it has beyond it being something that could exist. (Never mind why we should even think something does exist in the first place since it no longer has any link to what has previously claimed to be telepathy.)

 

[Darat]

For some reason I am reminded of someone in the 1800's talking about disease and miasmic vapors.

Then you still fail to comprehend what is being said.

 

[Darat]

This is probably the most depressing part of discussing things like telepathy with people who want there to be room in the world for magic. They discount the amazing things we can do with technology as mundane, even trivial or unimportant. Cell phones allow us to communicate across large distances. We can view things in places and at scales we never dreamed possible. We can remotely control devices that allow us to move objects, or even explore other planets.

And yet, this isn't good enough. There must still be some sort of magic that we cannot yet explain or comprehend. There has to be room for souls, fairies, and extraordinary powers of the mind. No matter how fascinating the universe as it is may be (and that video linked earlier really is fascinating), it will never be satisfying for some.

All of that takes work to understand, it takes work to make it happen, fairy tales and folklore are easy.

 

[Cosmic Yak]

It doesn't seem to exist. There is an extrapolation you're making from results in scientific settings to reality in general. Mistakes have been made along those lines before.

No. Sorry, but that's just wrong.

Have you watched the video? Telepathy does not exist, nor can it exist. At least, as I've said, within the realms of what we can observe.
Do please watch the video. The explanation is clear, even for a non-scientist like myself.

 

[Nay_Sayer]

My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.

 

[Dave Rogers]

My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.

Quite. Let's compare this with a technique that actually works, shall we? I suggest that Loss Leader follow up the telepathy test by posting the sequence of cards in full on the forums, then seeing how many correct answers are successfully transmitted to the rest of us. I'm betting on 52 out of 52, despite the overwhelmingly high odds against.

Dave

 

[Darat]

You could define it two ways: reading someone's mind utilizing processes already known (e.g., radio); reading someone's mind utilizing processes not known.

I think the latter is what most people have in mind, not people with tiny radios in their heads.

Why ever not? It's almost as if you want it to be well... magic... if it existed it would have to conform to the physics of our reality so it would have to be something akin to an organic radio.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

No not like that at all, as we actually did not know that.

I know it is an astonishing thought, that we are approaching in some areas absolutely accurate descriptions of reality at certain scales, but we really are. Watch the video linked to earlier, we can now make claims based on descriptions of reality that are so accurate that there is simply no room for supernatural psi. All the gaps where it could have lived have been explored, there are no more gaps for it to hide in.

It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem. I pointed out that thanks to the structure of the periodic table and our understanding of atomic structure that was an option, to which the person replied, "But what if on another planet there's a whole different periodic table?".

 

[P.J. Denyer]

It may seem trivial to you, but it is in fact the crux of the matter.

We (by which I mean human scientists) have shown conclusively that telepathy does not exist on earth.

We have not tested the entire universe. It is possible that there are things out there that we don't yet know of.
Could that include telepathic aliens? It could. It would overturn what we know now, but that's happened before. It's unlikely, given our current state of knowledge, but I think it would go beyond what we know to make any kind of definitive statement about a universe we have only just begun to explore.

I disagree with the highlighted. It would certainly add to our knowledge, but as many of us (and Darat deserves special mention for carrying on in the face of desk butting resistance), yourself included I think, have been trying to get across the information would have to be transmitted using a medium known to physics even if via a process not previously seen in terrestrial biology.

 

[Loss Leader]

Quite. Let's compare this with a technique that actually works, shall we? I suggest that Loss Leader follow up the telepathy test by posting the sequence of cards in full on the forums, then seeing how many correct answers are successfully transmitted to the rest of us. I'm betting on 52 out of 52, despite the overwhelmingly high odds against.

I'm just trying to work up an easy protocol which, while not rigorously scientific, would merit further study.

 

[Spektator]

It reminds me a bit of a conversation I was having with someone the other day regarding (chemical) elements. They suggested there might theoretically be an undiscovered element out there that would resolve a particular problem. I pointed out that thanks to the structure of the periodic table and our understanding of atomic structure that was an option, to which the person replied, "But what if on another planet there's a whole different periodic table?".

Seems to me it would NOT be an option.

 

[Crossbow]

Respect has and will always be extended where it is offered.

Offer helpful advice or not.

Volunteer or not.

Characterizations of me are unwelcome.

Well that is so very unfortunate!

Since you have already provided your own characterization of yourself with your silly talk about people from Atlantis, space ships flying about, and numerous claims about how telepathy is real, then there is no need for anyone else to characterize you.

 

[RoboTimbo]

King of the Americas, this person claims to be able to transmit their thoughts.

He would be an ideal starting point for you both to prove that telepathy exists, if you want to characterize yourselves as honest. If that isn't how you want to characterize yourself, carry on as you have been.

I'd be interested in hearing how the protocol negotiations are going since you were directed to him earlier.

 

[Startz]

My question is why 10? If telepathy exists then getting all 52 correct should be no more challenging than getting 10.

I'm just trying to work up an easy protocol which, while not rigorously scientific, would merit further study.

There are things that exist that don't work perfectly: radio, the internet....

Loss Leader has proposed a simple test. It won't scientifically settle the matter, but it will allow King to establish a prima facie case. Let's all encourage King to give it a shot.