Technical Analysis II

[Samson]

As opposed to a "90% chance of a drop of 30%" ? It's almost as if you're making it up as you go along

Oh The Don, I am trying to be helpful. I think there could be a useful rally here. Essentially you seem of independent means, so have no need to do something clever in the investment field.
But is this true of all your extended family?

 

[The Don]

Oh The Don, I am trying to be helpful. I think there could be a useful rally here. Essentially you seem of independent means, so have no need to do something clever in the investment field.

Oh, I have need but acting on your inane unfounded ramblings wouldn't be it.

But is this true of all your extended family?

I've covered at length in this thread the inadvisability of following your recommendations to someone with modest means. I don't propose to do it again.

 

[Samson]

Oh, I have need but acting on your inane unfounded ramblings wouldn't be it.



I've covered at length in this thread the inadvisability of following your recommendations to someone with modest means. I don't propose to do it again.

I can't make sense of this, because those with modest means should access the facilities those with immodest means use to profit. The irony is I continually state that I pursue a day job while posting trading ideas. Yet the thread shows that I am bloody well right. How can you keep contradicting facts?

 

[The Don]

I can't make sense of this, because those with modest means should access the facilities those with immodest means use to profit.

Should I wish to I, being of immodest means, could readily afford to gamble, and lose £10k or even £100k (which is not to say it wouldn't hurt but it wouldn't send me under either). Someone of modest means could ill afford to gamble in that way.

Trading on margin, whether using Technical Analysis or not, is highly speculative and due to gearing losses can rapidly spiral out of control. We know that you claim to have Technical Analysis methods which render this risk minimal but that runs counter to the perceived wisdom of market professionals and counter to the evidence you have presented so far.

The irony is I continually state that I pursue a day job while posting trading ideas. Yet the thread shows that I am bloody well right. How can you keep contradicting facts?

The thread shows nothing of the sort. You haven't demonstrated that you're using technical analysis and the open ended nature of your so called predictions (and your ability to "post-dict" timescales) means that they are essentially useless.

If you really did have a reliable way to pick the market you'd be better off closing down your business which you claim consumes cash and instead plough all your cash and energy into the market. Hell if the Technical Analysis really does work and you're risk averse you could just flog the intellectual property to a large financial institution for £millions and live on the proceeds.

 

[Samson]

Should I wish to I, being of immodest means, could readily afford to gamble, and lose £10k or even £100k (which is not to say it wouldn't hurt but it wouldn't send me under either). Someone of modest means could ill afford to gamble in that way.

Trading on margin, whether using Technical Analysis or not, is highly speculative and due to gearing losses can rapidly spiral out of control. We know that you claim to have Technical Analysis methods which render this risk minimal but that runs counter to the perceived wisdom of market professionals and counter to the evidence you have presented so far.



The thread shows nothing of the sort. You haven't demonstrated that you're using technical analysis and the open ended nature of your so called predictions (and your ability to "post-dict" timescales) means that they are essentially useless.

If you really did have a reliable way to pick the market you'd be better off closing down your business which you claim consumes cash and instead plough all your cash and energy into the market. Hell if the Technical Analysis really does work and you're risk averse you could just flog the intellectual property to a large financial institution for £millions and live on the proceeds.

Except I enjoy the day job. Who said it consumes cash? One throw away line from me months ago. Who lost money on buying then selling apple stock? Certainly no one on this thread. Did anyone fail to hedge their stocks a few weeks ago on my suggestion from TA? Yes. The first time FTSE traded current price was 17 years ago. Dividends are great, but smart ass people trumpet capital gains.
Hello buy and hold disciples. What do you have to say to the Japanese?

 

[Samson]

Well yes, there was a rally, but it is over. I expect a black monday.

 

[kevsta]

Well yes, there was a rally, but it is over. I expect a black monday.

flip. flop. flip? yesterdays rally was a technical bounce, hardly a buying opportunity for investors lol.

I'm still short. moved my take profit down to 1850, it could be today, or Monday. Both WTI and USDJPY are in full negative momentum across all timescales and tractor-beaming the indices down. If we get close to it tonight I may close manually rather than have it bounce away again.


[IMGW=650]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/flipflop.png[/IMGW]

I've also added in short on the Nikkei & Nasdaq last week and this week, theyre not as far into profit as this, but are running nicely.

edit. I was thinking about sending this to those idiots on CNBC, who think it is only oil, and cant work out why "everybody is selling" apart from that. what do you think?

[IMGW=850]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cramer.png[/IMGW]

 

[kevsta]

Apple update

15 Nov 2015
so what with all the work launching the hedge fund its been a little while since I looked at Apple. Short - Medium term Bearish IMO.

Momentum is also gathering / accelerating on the downside across all timeframes, once the algos switch to net short watch out below for a while, this was a heavily played Momo stock all the way up.

I think its more likely to run a couple more pushes down the newly formed weekly downtrend channel something like as marked out here.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/apple-weekly.png[/IMGW]

Ok this is in inverse BTFD mode now, ..STFR (Sell the Flipping Rallies) it has just fired off a weekly Bollinger Squeeze downwards in the first 2 weeks of the year. These dont happen all that often and are generally significant, note the movement following previous occurences, both down and up.

Every momentum algo and trader in the world will be selling this for a while now, if I personally (still) owned a significant amount of this I would be looking at taking some sort of downside protection from the top of the next poke up, it may get past $100 again before the next downdraft.

I think we touch $92, bounce from there to 100ish and I will be looking to short it from the top of it's channel again.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/applesqueeze.png[/IMGW]

On the monthly chart, if we close January (bar is only 2 weeks into the month) below 97.85, then IMO we are visiting the green oval area over the coming months.

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/applemonthly.png[/IMGW]


also, why does nobody continually want to tell me how useless my predictions are in any way? ..feeling a bit left out here, Samson gets all the attention

edit. I should stipulate that as ever, these technical predictions are only in play until the Fed reverses course, or starts talking about it, which I believe is inevitable at some point. But until they do, this is what's coming, IMO.

 

[kevsta]

Hedge Fund Insider News

Ok, so it's not all roses as a world-beating hedge fund manager you know..

the boys had a great first 4 days of the week and completely lost the plot on Friday. one of them is getting the boot on weekly review tomorrow I think.

the dilemma is when he's had this many losers in a row he's statistically due a couple of big winners again soon, so maybe I should wait for those, then can him. decisions decisions. anyway, broadly where we were last week-ish. boring.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/skeptica1602.png[/IMGW]

Unobtainium in particular had 3 accounts past 40% on Thursday, Stock-Slayer gave back 7.2% on Friday Oh well, easy come, easy go, it is aggressive I suppose, but still.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/unobtainium1602.png[/IMGW]

Interestingly though, even with our very poor week, I noticed while looking at the figures that with Stockslayer at +35.64% and the S&P's Friday close, this equates to 1384 on the S&P which means it has matched the S&P since 1st February 2012, in it's first 6 weeks of trading.

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sp-stockslayer.png[/IMGW]

and ....

[IMGW=750]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sp-stockslayer2.png[/IMGW]

anyone wanna tell me how TA can't outperform the superior market returns of major indices over long periods of time again, or are we done with that now?

Any ill-advised pairs traders based on this clearly incorrect "market truism" would likely be getting Margin calls right about now.

 

[Samson]

Silence as the technical prediction of share market setbacks for retirees unfolds. Including people I have to worry about.
I wonder about you critical thinkers and the ridicule you piled on the principle in the lengthy previous thread.

 

[The Don]

Silence as the technical prediction of share market setbacks for retirees unfolds. Including people I have to worry about.
I wonder about you critical thinkers and the ridicule you piled on the principle in the lengthy previous thread.

Given that your last recommendation was a buy, seems that as usual your "predictions" are as useful as usual

 

[Samson]

Given that your last recommendation was a buy, seems that as usual your "predictions" are as useful as usual

There was a 200 point rally after that call. Then the market dived again. The main post is hedging from the top, but I was talking to just three people.

I me and myself.

 

[The Don]

There was a 200 point rally after that call. Then the market dived again. The main post is hedging from the top, but I was talking to just three people.

I me and myself.

Like I say, useless "predictions" whose value only becomes apparent in retrospect

 

[Samson]

Like I say, useless "predictions" whose value only becomes apparent in retrospect

Hal.
The computer is dying. You are slowly pulling the plugs on me.

It costs you and me nothing to retire from the discussion, but I will never understand the character assassination of Samson on this thread.

 

[The Don]

Hal.
The computer is dying. You are slowly pulling the plugs on me.

It costs you and me nothing to retire from the discussion, but I will never understand the character assassination of Samson on this thread.

It really is quite straightforward. You made some claims regarding both your methods and your effectiveness and have completely failed to back them up. Repeating yet again:

• You have claimed to be using Technical Analysis methods but haven't demonstrated that you're actually using them as opposed to pulling predictions out of the air
• The method you claim to be using is so subjective that whether it constitues technical analysis is arguable
• You made some specific claims about long term performance but failed to back them up over a 6 month period
• During that period, your performance was indistinquishable from chance

Furthermore:

• Your "probability" calculation demonstrated a basic mathematical illiteracy
• Your claims regarding that calculation and its basis in mathematical and statistical modeling undermined your credibility
• Time and again I have demonstrated how the "open" nature of your predictions mean that they are almost certain to be correct eventually BUT when boundaries are placed on them then as expected, they're no better than chance
• You claim an infallible method of picking the market and yet seem not to be using it for your own personal gain.

All against a background of a lack of effectiveness of Technical Analysis among investment professionals despite the time, effort, manpower and resources which have been invested in it over the years whereas you claim that "your" Technical Analysis formula is implemented in a single Excel formula.

 

[kevsta]

my accuracy is also slipping a little, Apple turned $2.10 higher than my predicted ($92.65 - Jan 07) downside target (the pin down missed by 75c.) before bouncing yesterday.

it may yet get back down there again before turning up again, but this should due for another look at $100-102 from the underside before dropping again over the next few weeks, IMO

AAPL at $97.50 (red arrow) in pre-market, next downside target 92.65 (blue 200ma)

and a somewhat frustrating day yesterday, greed got the better of me really, I was short S&P from 1876 & 1864 with target at 1805, with a vague idea of hedging at least (take the same positions long to lock in gains) if not closing and reversing there, the 2 trades were +12% at that point, and I (still) have a NASDAQ short which was also +8% at sub 4000 ..so +20% with all 3 trades, well I left them on, and both S&P both were stopped out at zero..

now back to only +4% running equity and short again from 1850. I think we get one more drive down to the 1775 ish level, and then a good bounce back towards 1875 before it turns down again.

 

[Samson]

It really is quite straightforward. You made some claims regarding both your methods and your effectiveness and have completely failed to back them up. Repeating yet again:

• You have claimed to be using Technical Analysis methods but haven't demonstrated that you're actually using them as opposed to pulling predictions out of the air
• The method you claim to be using is so subjective that whether it constitues technical analysis is arguable
• You made some specific claims about long term performance but failed to back them up over a 6 month period
• During that period, your performance was indistinquishable from chance

Furthermore:

• Your "probability" calculation demonstrated a basic mathematical illiteracy
• Your claims regarding that calculation and its basis in mathematical and statistical modeling undermined your credibility
• Time and again I have demonstrated how the "open" nature of your predictions mean that they are almost certain to be correct eventually BUT when boundaries are placed on them then as expected, they're no better than chance
• You claim an infallible method of picking the market and yet seem not to be using it for your own personal gain.

All against a background of a lack of effectiveness of Technical Analysis among investment professionals despite the time, effort, manpower and resources which have been invested in it over the years whereas you claim that "your" Technical Analysis formula is implemented in a single Excel formula.

The first time ftse traded current price is january 1998, so 18 years rolls by and dividend yield is the fruit of that investment strategy. There are a few on thread that say quality and patience is the recipe. Ftse should be quality, 18 years sure is patience. For your edification I will audit the thread myself to explain what a strategy would have yielded. You are wilfully blind, and making false statements each time you say no better than chance.

 

[The Don]

The first time ftse traded current price is january 1998, so 18 years rolls by and dividend yield is the fruit of that investment strategy. There are a few on thread that say quality and patience is the recipe. Ftse should be quality, 18 years sure is patience. For your edification I will audit the thread myself to explain what a strategy would have yielded.

You're not really qualified to "audit the thread" yourself as the mathematical illiteracy you so clearly demonstrated through the whole probability debacle demonstrates.

Yes, the FTSE is at the same level now as it was in 1998 but then again the companies making up that FTSE 100 now are considerably different than those in 1998.

You are wilfully blind, and making false statements each time you say no better than chance.

The only objective test we have - the 6 month experiment - showed performance indistinguishable from chance.

Regarding your other pronouncements, as I've repeatedly pointed out they are so vague as to be impossible to determine whether they represent a 50/50, 80/20 or 99/1 call.

 

[Samson]

You're not really qualified to "audit the thread" yourself as the mathematical illiteracy you so clearly demonstrated through the whole probability debacle demonstrates.

Yes, the FTSE is at the same level now as it was in 1998 but then again the companies making up that FTSE 100 now are considerably different than those in 1998.



The only objective test we have - the 6 month experiment - showed performance indistinguishable from chance.

Regarding your other pronouncements, as I've repeatedly pointed out they are so vague as to be impossible to determine whether they represent a 50/50, 80/20 or 99/1 call.

It seems I will have to extract all specific predictions, collate them with charts to show why you are interviewing your keyboard rather than describing the facts. After all it is my reputation that is being impugned.

 

[Samson]

The snp is trading at 1869. I expect it to reach 1950 from here. No time frame but an equal dimension stop loss.
I would choose to close beforehand for any reason and would notify.