Technical Analysis II

[The Don]

The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.

Another essentially meaningless "prediction".....

With no indication as to timescale, would a 30% drop in twenty five years time indicate a "success" for technical analysis even if the market is currently at, say 10,000 and the 30% drop in twenty five years time takes it from 40,000 to 28,000 ?

The "90% certainty" also gives plenty of wriggle room to claim "success" even if there is no significant drop (or if there is a much smaller correction somewhere down the line).

Same old, same old

 

[AdMan]

The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.

You should try your hand at palm reading. I think your "skills" would better serve you there.

 

[kevsta]

happy new year all.

Samson, hope your account is still rising

.. but I also have a real problem with your probability statements. we already saw one fail before when challenged, (90% probability of hitting one number before another on the S&P)

and I don't believe there IS any way to calculate the probability of any individual trade's movement, in advance, only having done 100 or 1000 of the same thing can you then look at the "what happened" stats for a rough guide.

 

[Samson]

Actually the extent of the decline is always unknown and indeed if I happen to be right about 30% I would definitely be a buyer. But I predicted a 20% decline in snp by the end of january, which I still think quite likely. Because I was found guilty by the thread of making false statements in the OP, I feel obliged to make technical predictions to effectively appeal the verdict.

 

[Samson]

happy new year all.

Samson, hope your account is still rising

.. but I also have a real problem with your probability statements. we already saw one fail before when challenged, (90% probability of hitting one number before another on the S&P)

and I don't believe there IS any way to calculate the probability of any individual trade's movement, in advance, only having done 100 or 1000 of the same thing can you then look at the "what happened" stats for a rough guide.

The probabilities are based on back testing, and not just extracted from thin air. I think people might be a little surprised at the extent of this bear market.
I just took a 100 points from the dow after market, and watched it immediately drop another 100. I suggested people could hedge their physical portfolios with derivatives before all this, as that is the value of TA.
Meanwhile the little account I mentioned is all over the place, but currently a little behind.

Something like this.

1500 dec 8
775 dec 11
2060 dec 17
593 dec 28
1555 jan 5
1116 jan 5
1356 to date

 

[Samson]

Another essentially meaningless "prediction".....

With no indication as to timescale, would a 30% drop in twenty five years time indicate a "success" for technical analysis even if the market is currently at, say 10,000 and the 30% drop in twenty five years time takes it from 40,000 to 28,000 ?

The "90% certainty" also gives plenty of wriggle room to claim "success" even if there is no significant drop (or if there is a much smaller correction somewhere down the line).

Same old, same old

The Don

On december 4 I posted

There looks to be equity downside, and everyone should be short apple stock.

The dow jones closed dec 4 at 17841 and apple at 119.03
Currently the numbers are 16760 and 100.74

On december 7 I posted

I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now...

ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.

Currently feb oil is at 33.27

Then yesterday I said

The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending

At that posting time the dax was at 10347, and closed today at 10170,
It will open much lower with the dow currently down 150 in the after market.

I am not trying to be a clever dick at all, in fact I believe I am showing good faith by trying to substantiate what I said in the OP. My only tool is technical analysis.

 

[Samson]

Here is a picture that speaks volumes. I really do not know what the fundamentals say, but this weekly chart of the dax is extremely bleak. It is by no means too late to hedge physical portfolios in this bear market.

 

[kevsta]

it's only the "90% probability" that makes me argue with your calls, otherwise its just a standard trading prediction.

but it is just not possible to meaningfully or accurately measure or assign any kind of numbers to that (on a one-off basis) IMO.

 

[The Don]

I am not trying to be a clever dick at all, in fact I believe I am showing good faith by trying to substantiate what I said in the OP. My only tool is technical analysis.

As long as your "predictions" are vague enough, then subsequent events can be bent to fit.

Where "predictions" are binary then they're likely to be right at least 50% of the time and this approaches 100% when no timescale is provided.

Several times in this thread and/or the preceding thread Fooled by Randomness has been brought up, with good reason IMO.

 

[Samson]

As long as your "predictions" are vague enough, then subsequent events can be bent to fit.

Where "predictions" are binary then they're likely to be right at least 50% of the time and this approaches 100% when no timescale is provided.

Several times in this thread and/or the preceding thread Fooled by Randomness has been brought up, with good reason IMO.

Except I have made few specific predictions outside the trading experiment. Those I did make have all been characterised by going very little out of the money, and greatly into the money. This is the aim of all technical analysts. Your objections are based on your own thought experiment without analysing or auditing the thread. I say this because I know what I predicted, and what happened. Anyone can read this thread. I hope I can help some drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life. This should not be available only to Ivy league lucksters.

 

[kevsta]

AAPL at $97.50 (red arrow) in pre-market, next downside target 92.65 (blue 200ma)

[IMGW=700]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/aaplcollapse.png[/IMGW]

 

[Samson]

Well, happy new year to you kevsta.
I will be interested to see how your funds progress. I don't use trading for income, it is a fascination to me to test my theories. Many traders are like that, from bitter experience they learn the day job remains obligatory. I will say however, that I stand by my odds.
There is not one chance in trillions that markets are random walks to this date. They should be, and eventually they will be. But at this time they are highly predictable with price history alone.

 

[The Don]

Except I have made few specific predictions outside the trading experiment. Those I did make have all been characterised by going very little out of the money, and greatly into the money. This is the aim of all technical analysts. Your objections are based on your own thought experiment without analysing or auditing the thread. I say this because I know what I predicted, and what happened. Anyone can read this thread. I hope I can help some drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life. This should not be available only to Ivy league lucksters.

My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.

 

[Samson]

My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.

Interesting post.
Abject failure is 35% return over 5.5 months? Are you sure you are not holding jsfisher's post mortem as the one true view? I disagree with his conclusion. Missing from this thread is an outsider to wade through it, extract my predictions, and offer independent analysis.

 

[kevsta]

My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.

whereas I think * this* and *this* tick just about all of those boxes in exquisite transparent detail ?

 

[Samson]

whereas I think * this* and *this* tick just about all of those boxes in exquisite transparent detail ?

I wanna believe you. I will post a thousand dollars to any account you think I should. Then I will be able to see what actually happens to the cash balance.

 

[kevsta]

I wanna believe you. I will post a thousand dollars to any account you think I should. Then I will be able to see what actually happens to the cash balance.

of the ten different systems, Wildfire is the one I will be going live with in another couple of weeks. it uses 1 Skeptica trader and 2 Unobtainium traders.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unobtaninium/wildfire/1439014

if you set up a $1000 autotrade account I will configure it with those traders for you if you want, but just at slightly lower trader-leverage settings (because Wildfire is $3000 and set for that)

I should say that these demos also show the slippage on each trade inside the account, in general there is as much positive, as negative, meaning its not a problem, and is already modelled in on these figures, its just that only the account owner can see them.

and these demo accounts are all on FXCM so that is the broker I would also open the autotrade account with.

 

[Samson]

of the ten different systems, Wildfire is the one I will be going live with in another couple of weeks. it uses 1 Skeptica trader and 2 Unobtainium traders.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unobtaninium/wildfire/1439014

if you set up a $1000 autotrade account I will configure it with those traders for you if you want, but just at slightly lower trader-leverage settings (because Wildfire is $3000 and set for that)

I should say that these demos also show the slippage on each trade inside the account, in general there is as much positive, as negative, meaning its not a problem, and is already modelled in on these figures, its just that only the account owner can see them.

and these demo accounts are all on FXCM so that is the broker I would also open the autotrade account with.

Let me know when and where to post the money. I see no reason to not give details openly on this thread, rather than in pms emails and so on. I will screen capture the account balance each sunday.

 

[kevsta]

Let me know when and where to post the money. I see no reason to not give details openly on this thread, rather than in pms emails and so on. I will screen capture the account balance each sunday.

I don't want you to divulge anything about which traders or trader-settings are being used publicly, other than that, no problem.

you need to go here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade/open-live-account

and click the FXCM link from there, to link the account to myfxbook when you open it. then open and fund it, at which point I'll configure the system in the site for you.

 

[Samson]

I don't want you to divulge anything about which traders or trader-settings are being used publicly, other than that, no problem.

you need to go here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade/open-live-account

and click the FXCM link from there, to link the account to myfxbook when you open it. then open and fund it, at which point I'll configure the system in the site for you.

I have posted cash balances. I think you should do the same with screen captures. This is a direct means of demonstrating the OP. If you can post cash balances from anyone on one of these systems, you will prove the OP. It seems there is a concerted desire that technical analysis can be circular filed, but this will not happen if you photograph cash, not profit charts.