Swine Flu outbreak

The Atheist said:
It doesn't seem to be.

But it's new and has a much scarier name.
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We have a new strain, never before seen with no immunity among those vaccinated, occurring outside of flu season and with a mortality rate that seems higher than usual.

Yeah, nothing to worry about.
 
Pardalis said:
The other thing I'm wondering about is when did the 100 people who didn't make it get infected? How many days did they have the disease until their deaths?

We've first learned of this just a few days ago, and already there are casualties?

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There was a significant amplification event in Mexico with the Semana Santa holiday (April 5th - 12th) and spring break travel to Mexico (varied a little by region and university), coupled with a very short incubation period.
 
alfaniner said:
Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."
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It might not turn out to be very much different from regular flu, from the perspective of a person afflicted with the illness. The main difference may turn out to be simply that a lot more people will have that perspective than would during a seasonal flu epidemic. There are two kinds of people in the world: those who use the word "only" in front of the word "flu" -- and those who have actually experienced flu.

Two numbers used in epidemiology are "clinical attack rate" and "case fatality rate". The first refers to the number of people who contract the illness. During a mild flu season, this may be somewhere around 5% of the population, and in a more severe season, closer to 15%. During an influenza pandemic, it can be expected to reach 25% or more. The second refers to the number of people who die as a result of the illness. This can also be expected to be higher with a pandemic strain, but perhaps not as high as you might think. The CFR from the Spanish Flu pandemic is usually estimated at about 2.5% (of those infected), compared with something less than 0.1% for seasonal flu.

So far, there is not nearly enough information to make any attempt at a reasonable estimate for either of these numbers for this new virus.
 
skeptigirl said:
Where did this occur?

I think the direct connection to Mexico is true for most of the cases now, but soon that will not be the case as it spreads from the travelers to others. Many of them went through airports changing planes on their way home. With such a short incubation period I think it's safe to say they seeded the world.
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That's, partly, what I'm suggesting.

It's not a guess, it's a fact. In all the medical reports on this it has been clearly stated which cases were and were not being counted in Mexico compared to elsewhere.
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Thanks for the correction.
 
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there have been 149 deaths related to the Swine Flu, correct? Relative to the 109 million people living in Mexico, I don't see the need for panic here.

Yes, it is important to be aware of it, but to me this is another example of the media blowing things out of proportion.

As for the animals, I’m all for them having a happy life before I eat them, but doesn’t seem relevant to the cause of the swine flu.
 
Erigena said:
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there have been 149 deaths related to the Swine Flu, correct? Relative to the 109 million people living in Mexico, I don't see the need for panic here.

Yes, it is important to be aware of it, but to me this is another example of the media blowing things out of proportion.

As for the animals, I’m all for them having a happy life before I eat them, but doesn’t seem relevant to the cause of the swine flu.
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So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?
 
paximperium said:
So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?
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As I said, they should make the public aware, but there is a line between informing the public and causing a panic. The media is continuously spinning stories for ratings. It is also possible to have an epidemic without it becoming pandemic.
 
paximperium said:
So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?
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According to the AP, there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico
Deaths: 149, all in Mexico, 20 confirmed as swine flu and rest suspected. 1,995 people have been hospitalized with pneumonia but government does not yet know how many were swine flu.
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and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic?
More like Panicthepeopleforthehellofit
 
Erigena said:
As I said, they should make the public aware, but there is a line between informing the public and causing a panic. The media is continuously spinning stories for ratings. It is also possible to have an epidemic without it becoming pandemic.
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Well that's one of the drawbacks when news is a 'for profit' commodity. It ceases to be a 'for information' commodity.

I believe as far as pandemic goes, we're almost to that threshold.
 
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rwguinn said:
According to the AP, there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico

and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic?
More like Panicthepeopleforthehellofit
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It would be helpful to learn some terminology in epidemiology before echoing false information.

Possible, probable and confirmed cases have specific definitions in epidemiology. It would be absurd to expect only to count confirmed cases in an influenza case count.
 
skeptigirl said:
Well that's one of the drawbacks when news is a 'for profit' commodity. It ceases to be a 'for information' commodity.

I believe as far as pandemic goes, we're almost to that threshold.
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I agree with you about the news. I remember when CNN was relatively reliable source for new coverage. Now I feel like I'm watching an episode of Jerry Springer.
 
Well some of the suspected cases in NZ have already come back as not even having Influenza, let alone this particular strain. And apparently one of the members of the largest quarantined group had the flu before they left NZ, so odds are they've just infected their friends with regular ole flu.
 
skeptigirl said:
It would be helpful to learn some terminology in epidemiology before echoing false information.

Possible, probable and confirmed cases have specific definitions in epidemiology. It would be absurd to expect only to count confirmed cases in an influenza case count.
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epidemic over a wide geographical area; "a pandemic outbreak of malaria"
an epidemic that is geographically widespread; occurring throughout a region or even throughout the world
existing everywhere; "pandemic fear of nuclear war"
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From here

so, <300 cases=epidimic over a wide geographical area.
Gotcha.
Buh-bye. Again
 
As a lover of bacon sandwiches, some of my happiest moments have involved ingesting pigs.
If this is the price- it's been worth it!
 
Dymanic said:
No. The WHO has not made any change to the alert level today. Where in the world did you get that? Did you just make it up? They've been at phase 3 since avian influenza first surfaced in the human population in 1997.
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The WHO influenza pandemic alert level been raised to 4 as of today. (source)

ETA: Indicating containment is considered infeasible due to sustained human-to-human transmission rates. The highest "pre-pandemic" level, and the one where governments/health organizations need to start worrying.
 
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paximperium said:
We have a new strain, never before seen with no immunity among those vaccinated, occurring outside of flu season and with a mortality rate that seems higher than usual.

Yeah, nothing to worry about.
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Where is the evidence which suggests a higher than usual mortality rate? The opposite seems to be the case.

gumboot said:
Well some of the suspected cases in NZ have already come back as not even having Influenza, let alone this particular strain. And apparently one of the members of the largest quarantined group had the flu before they left NZ, so odds are they've just infected their friends with regular ole flu.
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Yeah, what a have!
 
skeptigirl said:
You should be concerned about regular flu. And equally concerned about this strain. But concerned means: warrants reasonable precautions.

A flu shot every year, the benefit by far outweighs any risks which are negligible.

Good handwashing.

Stay home when sick.

Get a thermometer if you don't have one and for any fever >101, see a health care provider that day.

That's all you need to do.
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You forgot to say...

PANIC WILDLY!!! AAAAAGGGGHHH!!! :jaw-dropp:boxedin::boggled::eye-poppi:covereyes:jaw-dropp

;)
 
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