Swine Flu outbreak

[shadron]

My god, man! Look at his user name. Look at his avatar! How much more evidence do you need?

Touché. Can't srgue with your logic!

 

[gumboot]

This flu has an even lower kill rate than the "world destroying" SARS virus - 1,000 cases in Mexico and only 20 confirmed deaths.

Of the students in New Zealand, only a handful have flu symptoms and none are even remotely serious. USCDC reports that Tamiflu does the trick on this particular bug.

 

[Pardalis]

he didnt have a go at America nor the USA. Maybe you should read his posts again

So please tell me what in the name of jumping Jehosaphat does capitalism have anything to do with this virus?

thats a good question.

So you don't know what you are talking about. Good.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The current thought is that the 1918 flu epidemic orginated in swine in Kansas. I don't think they were into the kind of massive battery farming being blamed here at that time.

Sorry, this is not current thought, and hasn't been for many years. The 1918 virus has been recovered from stored tissue. It's genetic makeup suggests direct mutation from an avian virus without passing through pig hosts as was initially hypothesized.

Brief history and terminology of swine flu

In the first place, the H1N1 virus is being called "swine flu" because of the outbreak of a different, 1918 origin virus that caused significant mortality in both swine and human populations and was known as the Spanish flu. The virus probably has a wild bird origin but it definitive origin remains unknown (see Taubenberg reference below).

The subsequent history of the swine influenza virus is nicely summarized: "Influenza as a disease of pigs was 1st recognized during the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918*1919. Veterinarian J S Koen was the 1st to describe the illness, observing frequent outbreaks of influenza in families followed immediately by illness in their swine herds, and vice versa [1]. Influenza virus was 1st isolated from pigs in 1930 by Shope and Lewis [2], with the virus isolated from humans several years later [3]. The 1st isolation of a swine influenza virus from a human occurred in 1974 [4], confirming speculation that swine-origin influenza viruses could infect humans." See Myers below.


References
----------
1. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis; 2006 Jan
2. Myers KP, Olsen CW, Gray GC. Cases of swine influenza in humans: a review of the literature. Clin Infect Dis 2007; 44: 1084*8 doi: 10.1086/512813.

From the Taubenberger link above:

The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique feature, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The virus of the 1918 pandemic likely expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neuraminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 virus were derived from an avianlike influenza virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15,24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the virus also support this conclusion.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

Future Alien civilisations may look back on us in sheer bafflement at our inability to put our eggs in at least two baskets (A moon base, for example).

 

[Dymanic]

You're back to front, level 3 - which was instituted today, is a level higher than 4.

No. The WHO has not made any change to the alert level today. Where in the world did you get that? Did you just make it up? They've been at phase 3 since avian influenza first surfaced in the human population in 1997.

And no, level 3 is not higher than level 4. I think you may be confusing the WHO's Pandemic Alert Phase with the U..S Armed Forces Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) which does assign the highest alert level to the lowest number.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

So please tell me what in the name of jumping Jehosaphat does capitalism have anything to do with this virus?....

While the origin is as of yet unknown, it is equally likely to be the result of human animal interface in a backyard pig or poultry operation or a large commercial pig or poultry operation that is sloppy about the polluting runoff of the animals' waste products.

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events

Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.

The public health and other more reasoned information sources on this outbreak are reluctant to mention this evidence because they know the public jumps too readily to false conclusions. No sense stirring the pot when the average person is going to jump to a conclusion the evidence really doesn't yet support. But I have no qualms sharing the evidence of a potential connection since I know the CTers are going to see the information on the Net whether I post it or not.

The fact of the matter is, currently, the virus contains evidence of potential initial sources that aren't even swine. It's waaaay too early to say where it originated.

 

[gumboot]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

That's very, very unlikely. The main reason the Spanish Flu was so severe was because of WWI, a situation which is unlikely to arise again any time soon. This was exacerbated by very poor quarantine methods which actually aided in the spread of the virus.

 

[plumjam]

Just curious. If you die of Swine Flu do you end up in Hog Heaven?

And has anyone seen Piggy lately?
Come to think of it, I think I'll put him on ignore until they've developed a vaccine.

 

[Sefarst]

SARS, Bird Flu, Mad Cow, now Swine Flu? Who keeps coming up with these diseases? Can someone tell me if these all just get hyped up or if they are serious threats that, thanks to all the overkill fuss people make, never turn into anything serious?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...And has anyone seen Piggy lately?
Come to think of it, I think I'll put him on ignore until they've developed a vaccine.

I love your humor, plum.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

That's very, very unlikely. The main reason the Spanish Flu was so severe was because of WWI, a situation which is unlikely to arise again any time soon. This was exacerbated by very poor quarantine methods which actually aided in the spread of the virus.

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

SARS, Bird Flu, Mad Cow, now Swine Flu? Who keeps coming up with these diseases? Can someone tell me if these all just get hyped up or if they are serious threats that, thanks to all the overkill fuss people make, never turn into anything serious?

At this point there is the potential for a bad flu pandemic but the rest is total hype.

Then again, there is always the potential for a bad flu pandemic.

Mind you, flu should be taken much more seriously than it generally is.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.

Hypothetically, in this particular case, it could be a benefit or a detriment.

If the initial pandemic wave is mild and the strain becomes more deadly later, the fact it spread so fast means lots of people will have developed immunity when infected by the milder version.

OTOH, were this to turn out to be a deadlier strain than usual (remember, flu kills hundreds of thousands every single year*), then the fact it took a month and a half to become seeded in countries all over the globe could mean so many people sick at the same time that the health care infrastructure will be overrun.


*US annual flu deaths are estimated to be 20-40,000 so I'm extrapolating from that.

 

[Checkmite]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

Perhaps it was the reaction by the public to the "press paranoia" - i.e, more diligence in health precautions and so forth - that prevented those things from becoming worse than they were.

So, I was happy to learn that Ohio's first case of swine flu is in my town.

On the other hand, I'm not worried. I'd completely finished one of the recalled jars of Peter Pan when that recall was announced a couple years ago, and I didn't die.

 

[gumboot]

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.

Not really, during WWI you had a massive population, particularly susceptible to infection, located close together in unhygienic conditions, for an extended period. This gave the virus the opportunity to mutate rapidly and spread.

When the war ended this massive population then simultaneously dispersed to every corner of the globe, and were naturally particularly warmly greeted back in their home cities and towns and villages.

It was pretty much the most perfect incubation and dispersion method we could have possibly come up with. We made this worse by utilising flawed quarantine methods - for example it was common to put all sick people together in a single space so that ill people with other infections were then exposed to the flu and died in large numbers.

Even then, most people didn't die of the virus - the overwhelming majority of deaths were actually a result of secondary bacterial infections which can be prevented these days with antibiotics.

In contrast while a large number of people travel internationally every year, it's still less that the total troop numbers in WWI, and they tend to be healthier (most people don't travel if sick), better medicated (most air travelers are wealthier with good diets), and in hygienic conditions (air filter systems on airliners kill influenza). They also tend to remain in a given location for only a brief time, reducing the risk of exposure, and they're not simultaneously in the same place at once.

Certainly widespread air travel makes it easier for a virus to spread, but it still doesn't even come close to the unique circumstances at the close of WWI.

 

[gumboot]

Mind you, flu should be taken much more seriously than it generally is.

I think the main reason it isn't taken seriously is because so many people refer to the common cold as a "flu". I've had numerous arguments with people who were convinced they had influenza, but who quite clearly only had a cold.

Most people will never in their lives actually get infected with influenza, and if you do, you certainly know about it. It's a magnitude worse than "a really bad cold".

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Hmm, Hope you are all right (I bow to your superior knowledge).

Guess I'll have to find a new way to push space travel.

 

[Pardalis]

While the origin is as of yet unknown, it is equally likely to be the result of human animal interface in a backyard pig or poultry operation or a large commercial pig or poultry operation that is sloppy about the polluting runoff of the animals' waste products.

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events

And what's it got to do with capitalism?

To remind you, this is Oliver's original statement, his objection about the use of vaccines:

Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem.

The rationale escapes me. Attributing this to capitalism seems like a complete non-sequitur to me, not to mention his apparent ignorance of how we fight viruses.

 

[Dymanic]

Not really, during WWI you had a massive population, particularly susceptible to infection, located close together in unhygienic conditions, for an extended period.

Mexico City is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and a fourth of the dwellings have no access to sewage facilities (according to Wikipedia; never been there myself; not interested in going any time soon).

This gave the virus the opportunity to mutate rapidly and spread.

Mutating rapidly is to influenza what flying is to birds or swimming to fish. It's what they do. Certain conditions promote reassortment, where different strains swap genes. Pigs have long been regarded as the ideal reservoir to support such events. This virus is a quadruple reassortment between two swine influenzas, one human, and one avian, so it seems to have somehow managed to find the conditions needed to make that happen despite the absence of a World War.

If the things you mentioned above were what gave the 1918 virus its virulence (and the actual virologists seldom claim to have a thorough understanding of that), then there's no good reason to think we're off the hook on that basis. The Spanish Flu pandemic began with a relatively mild first wave, so if we're going to assume that this one is going to stick to the same playbook, the fact that this bug hasn't jumped right out with a noticeably high CFR might be taken as much as a cause for concern as a cause for comfort -- but of course, nothing says this bug has to play by 1918 rules, so... who knows?

We are essentially in unexplored territory every time a novel virus comes along.