Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

According to a new article in Expressen.se today about an interview with Anders Tegnell on BBC News, Tegnells miss i BBC om svenska reglerna, Tegnell corrects the interviewer, but he is wrong about the distance that he claims is required between tables at restaurants:

Programledaren tar upp kravet på att max åtta personer får sitta vid samma bord på en restaurang och hävdar att det i övrigt inte spelar någon roll hur borden är placerade.
Tegnell rättar – och har själv fel.
– Det där är inte sant. Så är det inte. Restauranger har väldigt strikta regler om att de ska ha avstånd mellan borden. Två meter, och det är lagstadgat. Så det är en myt som sprids, inte vad som händer, säger Anders Tegnell.
Sant är att det är lagstadgat. Fel är måttet.
Enligt Folkhälsomyndighetens rekommendationer ska avståndet vara en meter – inte två.

The studio host addresses the requirement that a maximum of eight people may be seated at the same table in a restaurant, and she claims that it does not matter how the tables are placed.
Tegnell corrects - and is wrong himself.
- That's not true. That's not how it is. Restaurants have very strict rules that they must have distance between the tables. Two meters, and it is statutory. So it is a myth that is being spread, not what actually happens, says Anders Tegnell.
It is true that it is statutory. But the distance is wrong.
According to the Swedish Public Health Agency's recommendations, the distance should be one meter - not two.

Tegnell: Sweden being more targeted in its Covid rules (BBC News, Nov. 20, 2020)

I don't really see how the distance could possibly be less that 1 meter for people to be able to get to their seats. In the current circumstances, I would consider a restaurant crowded if the distance between tables is no more than 1 meter.
The interview also shows that Tegnell still prefers to compare Sweden to Belgium - and nowadays also to the UK - rather than to Finland or Sweden's other Scandinavian neighbors.

 

[dann]

Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 23, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 633 (6,406) 7,240* 182* **According to SVT.se
Denmark: 136 (789) 1,169* 41 *based on 71,047 tests, positive 1.6 %
Iceland: 76 (26) 12 2
Finland: 69 (384) 297 15
Norway: 57 (311) 418 36
Iceland has 198 active cases, Faroe Islands 3, New Zealand 52.
The Faroe Islands have 9 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.
Most say they're healthy (KVF.fo, Nov. 23, 2020) Interesting health survey – but nothing about Covid-19.

 

[dann]

An article in Expressen today is based on the Australian epidemiologist David Steadman's calculations:

Den 10 och 17 april dog 115 personer i Sverige med corona.
Före jul skulle lika många, eller fler, kunna dö enligt epidemiologen David Steadsons beräkningar.
– Vi överstiger 100 dödsfall per dag innan jul, även om det inte kommer att synas i statistiken förrän efter nyår, säger han.
Steadson, som varit flitigt citerad i australiska medier och som bor i Sverige, anser att den svenska strategin har varit otillräcklig för att stoppa skenande dödstal.
(...)
”Efter dagens uppdatering från Folkhälsomyndigheten förutser jag att Sverige kommer att överstiga toppen med de 100 dödsfallen de hade i april”, skrev han på Twitter den 18 november.
Larmet om Sverige: Fler döda än i våras (Expressen, Nov. 24, 2020)

115 people died in Sweden with corona on April 10 and 17,
Before Christmas, as many, or more, could die, according to epidemiologist David Steadson's calculations.
- We will exceed 100 deaths per day before Christmas, although it will not be visible in the statistics until 2021, he says.
Steadson, who has been frequently quoted in the Australian media and lives in Sweden, believes that the Swedish strategy has not been sufficient to stop the rampant death toll.
(...)
"After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April," he wrote on Twitter on 18 November.
The alarm about Sweden: More dead than last spring

The latter quotation is from another researcher, Marc Bevan, confirms David Steadson’s calculations on Twitter, Nov. 18, 2020.

 

[dann]

The number of new registered cases on Tuesdays in Sweden (no numbers Saturday, Sunday, Monday):
Tuesday, Sep. 15: 840 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 22: 1,199 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 29: 1,543 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Oct. 6: 1,862 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Oct. 13: 2,203 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Oct. 20: 3,180 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Oct. 27: 5,191 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Nov. 3: 10,177 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Nov. 10: 15,779 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Nov. 17: 15,084 - since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Nov. 24: 17,265 - since Friday, according to SVT.se

The number of new registered deaths since Friday: 94.

 

[Samson]

Here is NZ

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/polit...estrictions-eased/VONTIWIP5OU5UC2DJFAKXETVAI/

 

[dann]

The major difference between NZ and Sweden is obvious:
"Speaking to media this morning, Ardern said the Government was still working through its immunisation strategy, which is centred around a Covid-19 vaccine."

 

[dann]

An interesting article about crowding on public transport in Sweden:

Ansvaret läggs på individen och det provocerar skolkuratorn Merima Muharemovic som tillbringar två timmar om dagen i kollektivtrafiken.
– Jag har ingen möjlighet att undvika trängseln, säger hon.
Resenär om trängseln: Provocerad av det ständiga mantrat om individens ansvar (DagensNyheter.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

The individual person is made responsible and that offends the school counselor Merima Muharemovic, who spends two hours a day on public transport.
– It is impossible for me to avoid crowding, she says.
Travelers about crowding: Provoked by the perpetual mantra about individual responsibility

It is a very different description than Clutch Cargo's in post 2661 (see photo in the article).

 

[dann]

Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 24, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 642 (6,500) 17,265* 190* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 137 (797) 1,367* 40 *based on 81,621 tests, positive 1.6 %
Iceland: 76 (26) 9 2
Finland: 69 (384) 353 15
Norway: 58 (314) 534 39
Iceland has 186 active cases, Faroe Islands 2, New Zealand 53.
The Faroe Islands have 10 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

 

[dann]

Medellivslängden i Sverige kommer med stor sannolikhet att sjunka i år med anledning av pandemin. Detta enligt en prognos från SCB.
(…)
Det kan bli den största minskningen på två år sedan 1944.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Expressen.se, Nov. 25, 2020 – 9:54)

Life expectancy in Sweden will most likely decrease this year due to the pandemic, according to a forecast from Statistics Sweden.
(…)
It may become the biggest shortening of the average length of life in two years since 1944.
Latest news about the coronvirus

Det sa Anders Tegnell – och så blev verkligheten (Expressen.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

What Anders Tegnell said – and what actually happened Paywall, unfortunately …

Han får också en fråga av en tittare som undrar varför Anders Tegnell är rädd för att rekommendera munskydd.
- Jag är inte alls rädd för att rekommendera munskydd i situationer där munskydd skulle kunna göra skillnad. Vi har hela tiden dialogen med framförallt våra regioner, som skulle vara de som hanterar den typen av rekommendationer i så fall. Hittills är den bedömningen att vi lyckas bra med att hålla avstånd, ändå. Man rekommenderar regionerna ibland, i väldigt speciella situationer, att det kan vara bra med munskydd som komplement. Men att ha det allmänt är tveksamt hur mycket det hjälper, det finns inte jättebra forskning. Vi kan se många länder i Europa som haft lagar om munskydd under lång tid, som ändå har en omfattande smittspridning, svarar Tegnell.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

He also gets a question from a viewer who is wondering why Anders Tegnell is afraid of recommending face masks.
-I am noget at all afraid of recommending face masks in situations where where face masks would make a difference. We are in a dialogue alle the time primarily with the regions, who are meant to be in charge of recommendations in those cases. So far, the assessment has been that we have had success with social diastancing. Now and then, the regions are advised, in very special situations, that it may be a good idea to use face masks in addition to other measures. But it is doubtful that it would help to recommendation face masks in general, there is no very good research. We can see many countries in Europe that have had laws about face mask for a long time, and yet they have had widespread infection, answers Tegnell.
Latest news about the coronavirus

Att smittan är luftburen brukar vara argument för att man ska bära ansiktsmask. När man vistas i trånga miljöer i exempelvis kollektivtrafiken kan ett munskydd ha effekt, säger Malin Alsved.
– Munskydd är bra för att vi inte vet vilka som är smittade. Om man har munskydd hindrar man både droppar och aerosol från att spridas. Man minskar helt enkelt hur många smittade partiklar som finns i luften.
Viktigast är dock fortfarande att hålla avstånd.
– Det är effektivt för både dropp- och luftburen smitta.
Luftforskaren: Högljudda miljöer kan vara riskmiljö (SVT.se, Nov. 24, 2020)

That the infection is airborne is usually an argument for wearing face masks. When you are in very crowded environments, for instance on public transport, face masks may be effective, says Malin Alsved.
Face masks are good because we don’t know who is infected. If you are wearing face masks, you stop both droplets and aerosols from spreading. You simply lower the number of contagious particles in the air.
But social distancing is still the most important thing.
- It works for contagion in the form of both droplets and aerosols.
Air researcher: Loud environments may be risk environments

 

[dann]

”Den svenska modellen” i coronahanteringen har väckt förundran världen över. Men när en andra våg nu sveper över landet ser statsminister Stefan Löfven ut att ha tappat förtroendet för statsepidemiologen Anders Tegnell.
Statsminister Stefan Löfven (S) hade just meddelat det närmsta en svensk nedstängning av samhället som går att genomföra inom lagens ramar. Alla allmänna sammankomster och offentliga tillställningar på mer än åtta personer förbjuds. Grundlagsfästa fri- och rättigheter sätts på undantag.
I Sveriges Radio medverkade Anders Tegnell för att svara på varför man har landat i att just den begränsningen är mest effektiv för att minska smittspridningen. Men den annars vältalige och självsäkre statsepidemiologen hade inga bra svar att ge.
Sprickan växer – så blev Tegnell av med sitt veto (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Nov. 22, 2020)

The "Swedish model" in corona management has surprised people all over the world. But as a second wave is now sweeping across the country, prime minister Stefan Löfven seems to have lost confidence in national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Prime minister Stefan Löfven (Social Democrat) had just announced the closest thing to a Swedish lockdown of society that can be implemented within the framework of the law. All public gatherings and public events for more than eight people are prohibited. Constitutional freedoms and rights are suspended. Anders Tegnell appeared on Swedish Radio to answer why it has been concluded that this particular restriction is most effective way to reduce the spread of infection. But the otherwise eloquent and self-secure national epidemiologist had no good answers.
The gap is growing - how Tegnell lost his veto

På söndagskvällen var svenska folket än en gång inkallade till rektorn. ”Många har slarvat med att följa råd och rekommendationer” sa Stefan Löfven och konstaterade att ”den lilla respit vi fick under sommaren och hösten är verkligen över”.
Statsministerns tal till nationen innehöll alltså en uppläxning av svenska folket som har slarvat. Det innehöll däremot inte någon självkritik, men det kan ju nämnas att signalerna från regeringen och Folkhälso¬myndigheten fram till för bara några veckor sedan pekade i en helt annan riktning än i dag.
Ingen självkritik från Löfven under uppläxningen (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Nov. 22, 2020)

On Sunday night, the Swedish people had again been summoned to the principal’s office. ”Many have been sloppy about following advice and regulations,” said Stefan Löfven and stated that ”the short respite we had this summer and fall is really over.”
So the prime minister’s speech to the nation contained a sermon to the Swedish people about being sloppy. But it didn’t contain any self-criticism, but until just a few weeks ago, the signals from the government and the Public Health Agency pointed in a very different direction from what we hear today.
No self-criticism from Löfven during his sermon

Some of the Swedish media have also started to point out that the first few months of Sweden's pandemic response weren't the success story that Löfven would like to pretend.

 

[dann]

Frågan som delar expertisen just nu: Sprids coronaviruset som en droppsmitta eller är det luftburet? Svaret på frågan avgör också om vi bör ha munskydd eller inte. Folkhälsomyndigheten borde inte uttrycka sig så tvärsäkert, enligt en forskare.
(…)
Public Health Agency:
"Är covid-19 en luftburen smitta? Nej, covid-19 räknas inte som en luftburen smitta."
Corona kan vara både luftburet och droppsmitta (Sydsvenskan.se, Nov. 22, 2020)

The question that divides the experts right now: Is the coronavirus spreading as droplet infection or is it airborne? The answer to the question also determines whether we should use face masks or not. The Public Health Authority should not be so cocksure in this question, according to one researcher.
(…)
The Public Health Agency:
"Is covid-19 an airborne infection? No, covid-19 is not considered to be an airborne infection.”
Coronavirus can be both airborne and transmitted in droplets.

It's hard to believe, but that is actually what the Swedish Public Health Agency is still saying on its website today!

Är covid-19 en luftburen smitta? Nej, covid-19 räknas inte som en luftburen smitta.
Smittspridning (Folkhälsomyndigheten)

It is insane, but the Swedish Public Health Agency (Folkshälsomyndigheten) seems to interpret reality according to the Swedish strategy instead of the other way 'round: What is this disease and how do we consequently deal with it?
When new knowledge is acquired about coronavirus, the Public Health Agency prefers to be in denial about it: We don't recommend face masks, so the coronavirus is not airborne!

 

[Rolfe]

Well, it's not truly airborne, but that's a matter of definition. It's been obvious since April that it's transmitted by aerosol as well as large droplets and that a 2m distance is no use at all if you're in a poorly-ventilated airspace that has become aerosolised.

 

[dann]

The CDC says:

Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur under special circumstances
Pathogens that are mainly transmitted through close contact (i.e., contact transmission and droplet transmission) can sometimes also be spread via airborne transmission under special circumstances. There are several well-documented examples in which SARS-CoV-2 appears to have been transmitted over long distances or times. These transmission events appear uncommon and have typically involved the presence of an infectious person producing respiratory droplets for an extended time (>30 minutes to multiple hours) in an enclosed space. Enough virus was present in the space to cause infections in people who were more than 6 feet away or who passed through that space soon after the infectious person had left. Circumstances under which airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 appears to have occurred include:

* Enclosed spaces within which an infectious person either exposed susceptible people at the same time or to which susceptible people were exposed shortly after the infectious person had left the space.
* Prolonged exposure to respiratory particles, often generated with expiratory exertion (e.g., shouting, singing, exercising) that increased the concentration of suspended respiratory droplets in the air space.
* Inadequate ventilation or air handling that allowed a build-up of suspended small respiratory droplets and particles.
Scientific Brief: SARS-CoV-2 and Potential Airborne Transmission (CDC, Oct. 5, 2020)

Winter is coming, the season for hygge. It's difficult to combine with a draft. It blows out the candles!

 

[Rolfe]

Yes, they're describing aerosol transmission indoors, and "long distances or times" is a relative term. True airborne transmission where the bloody thing blows on the wind and can be caught hundreds of metres away downwind in the open air is thankfully not an issue with this one.

 

[jimbob]

Yes, they're describing aerosol transmission indoors, and "long distances or times" is a relative term. True airborne transmission where the bloody thing blows on the wind and can be caught hundreds of metres away downwind in the open air is thankfully not an issue with this one.

Measles and Foot and Mouth spring to mind for those.

 

[Rolfe]

Yes. Foot and Mouth can travel as much as two miles across country on the wind and infect animals at that distance. That's true airborne spread and I think it's a mistake to use the word "airborne" for aerosol spread, because when people hear "airborne" they often imagine out-doors wind-borne infection and that's a pretty scary concept which isn't actually the case here. Loose terminology is causing significant confusion.

However, it's been obvious at least since the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreader event (which happened on 10th March), and other similar occurrences often involving singing or loud talking/shouting indoors, that indoor aerosol spread is an issue. I was emailing people pointing this out in April (relating to choir practices) and also since then I've been eyeing up every indoor space I enter for aerosol potential, and staying out if I wasn't happy. It's hard to believe that the Swedish disease control people still haven't caught on to this.

 

[jimbob]

Yes. Foot and Mouth can travel as much as two miles across country on the wind and infect animals at that distance. That's true airborne spread and I think it's a mistake to use the word "airborne" for aerosol spread, because when people hear "airborne" they often imagine out-doors wind-borne infection and that's a pretty scary concept which isn't actually the case here. Loose terminology is causing significant confusion.

However, it's been obvious at least since the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreader event (which happened on 10th March), and other similar occurrences often involving singing or loud talking/shouting indoors, that indoor aerosol spread is an issue. I was emailing people pointing this out in April (relating to choir practices) and also since then I've been eyeing up every indoor space I enter for aerosol potential, and staying out if I wasn't happy. It's hard to believe that the Swedish disease control people still haven't caught on to this.

Likewise. I'm still unhappy about the situation in schools and colleges. My daughter's had to isolate once so far because of someone in her 6th form biology class testing positive.

 

[Rolfe]

There's a paradox. I don't trust the village Co-op. Small, narrow aisles, and people didn't respect the single-file one-way system the only time I went in. Including the staff, who treated me as a nuisance because I was trying to distance.

I do trust, more or less, the big Sainsbury's supermarket about 13 miles away. Huge air-space, much wider aisles, much easier to avoid other people. But it's across the county boundary and the way the guidelines go I should be shopping in the Co-op. Frankly, no. Not going there. I think people have been very lucky because after the first couple of weeks there has been very little virus in the village. But if there had been, that shop would have been trouble.

Yesterday Midlothian was moved to level 2, same as us, so it's now legal to go to Sainsbury's. (I went on Monday though, because I had to take the cat to the vet and my vet is very near the supermarket.) But sometimes what is legal or advised is less safe than what we're told to avoid.

I've been going to Sainsbury's about every two months and getting milk, bread and fresh fruit and veg from a local hotel that prepares orders in advance and you can collect without going inside. At the height of the lockdown they were delivering everything and they will still deliver if you want. The Co-op should have had the sense to organise something like that, but they didn't.

The post office has organised evening shopping by appointment where you book in advance and get the small shop to yourself for a set time so you can browse for cards and Christmas presents. Good for them but I'm still not going to stay in there that long. I'll post something and beat a hasty retreat, thanks.

 

[dann]

Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Nov. 25, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 647 (6,555) 4,954* 209* **according to SVT.se
Denmark: 138 (802) 1,183* 42 *based on 75,865 tests, positive 1.6 %
Iceland: 76 (26) 14 2
Finland: 70 (388) 363 21
Norway: 58 (316) 551 35
Iceland has 176 active cases, Faroe Islands 2, New Zealand 59.
The Faroe Islands have 11 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized.

 

[dann]

Valgte Danmark eller Sverige den rigtigt vej, da coronakrisen ramte? Det siger tallene (TV2.dk, Nov. 24, 2020)

Did Denmark or Sweden choose the right way when the the corona crisis struck? This is what the numbers say.

In the article, the answer is obvious (see the graphs!), and Denmark's the Hammer-and-the-Dance strategy has obviously been much better than Sweden's Flatten-the-Curve-and-Hope-for-Herd-Immunity strategy.

But the correct answer to the question, Did Denmark or Sweden choose the right pandemic strategy?, would obviously have been: No, they didn't. Denmark has done much better han Sweden but still has twice the number of per-capita deaths of Finland, Iceland or Norway - not to mention the countries that chose the Elimination strategy. (Well, so did Iceland, and not with as much success as many Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand, and the Faroe Islands and Greenland, but still considerably better than both Denmark and Sweden.)