Sun to nuke the earth within a few years

Zeuzzz

Banned
Zeuzzz
Joined
Dec 26, 2007
Messages
5,211
http://beta.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/article458070.ece

As the Sun is waking up from a “deep slumber”, it could soon trigger massive space storms as early as 2013 which may knock out power and communication systems on Earth, scientists have warned.

The Sun follows an 11-year cycle of high and low periods of solar activity and now it is leaving a notably quiet phase, according to scientists.

During this period, they believe, there would be fiery explosions having the power of 100 hydrogen bombs that could cause twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina, the Daily Mail reported.
Click to expand...


Sounded worryingly catasrophic until I saw the source of that last line :rolleyes:

Sure the 2012 conpiracy nuts are going to absolutely jump on this.

NASA:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
Click to expand...


Im not that bothered as a lot of other people online seem to be. So what can I say to all the people that are using this as their justification that they were right that the end of the world is nigh?
 
Whereas the solar flares and resulting "space storms" will be occurring in 2013, I fail to grasp how this bolsters the case for a December 2012 deadline.
 
Vortigern99 said:
Whereas the solar flares and resulting "space storms" will be occurring in 2013, I fail to grasp how this bolsters the case for a December 2012 deadline.
Click to expand...

I'm sure the 2012 conspiracy nuts will have no problem moving the Goal Posts a little so everything will fit into their belief system.
 
The sun is going to produce "fiery explosions having the power of 100 hydrogen bombs" ? That sounds like the sun is falling into a deep slumber.
 
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Click to expand...


Well I never. Its as if all the people here that have tried to convince me that solar physics and the standard model are nearly beyond repute were talking out of their rear ends all this time.

The amount of times I've heard solar astronomers say "this was completely unexpected by current models" about solar/terresitrial events clearly shows this to be a ludicrous position.

Don't make me list them, theres at least 10 I can think of off the top of my head without even searching the plasma cosmology thread :p
 
Zeuzzz said:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/



Well I never. Its as if all the people here that have tried to convince me that solar physics and the standard model are nearly beyond repute were talking out of their rear ends all this time.

The amount of times I've heard solar astronomers say "this was completely unexpected by current models" about solar/terresitrial events clearly shows this to be a ludicrous position.

Don't make me list them, theres at least 10 I can think of off the top of my head without even searching the plasma cosmology thread :p
Click to expand...

IF anyone tried to argue that the current model was both beyond repute and entirely complete, they were talking out their ass.

However, the basics of the solar model (i.e.-the sun runs on fusion, is mostly helium, etc, etc) ARE beyond repute.

And in any case, plasma cosmology fails to predict not only current observed behavior, but any of this unexpected behavior either, so the current model is still our best bet.

Incompelte does not mean incorrect (re: Newton and Einstein).
 
Hellbound said:
IF anyone tried to argue that the current model was both beyond repute and entirely complete, they were talking out their ass.

However, the basics of the solar model (i.e.-the sun runs on fusion, is mostly helium, etc, etc) ARE beyond repute.

And in any case, plasma cosmology fails to predict not only current observed behavior, but any of this unexpected behavior either, so the current model is still our best bet.

Incompelte does not mean incorrect (re: Newton and Einstein).
Click to expand...


Bah, at risk of hijacking this thread if you want to continue this discussion revive the plasma cosmology thread by quoting your post. If you can show me how the Big Bang, or any other cosmological theories, predict this unexpected behaviour I'll eat my foot.

Nuff said. Carry on on topic.
 
Zeuzzz said:
Bah, at risk of hijacking this thread if you want to continue this discussion revive the plasma cosmology thread by quoting your post.
Click to expand...

You started it.

Well I never. Its as if all the people here that have tried to convince me that solar physics and the standard model are nearly beyond repute were talking out of their rear ends all this time.
Click to expand...

How is one to understand your critique out of context of your plasma sun postings? You give no reason for your "nevering", so we have to extract it from your posting history. That makes it relevant here.

The point is that models always have limits in the way they can reliably demonstrate reality; that is why they are models. When they get to the edges of well known behavior it is not unusual for them to fail in one way or another, and it is completely normal for a scientists to study a rare phenomenon and adjust a model so it then operates correctly in the new domain. Where you, personally and forum-historically, seem to have problems with solar models is not in these outer limits where problems can expect to happen, but rather when they are operating within the areas they should be and are capable of correctly modeling, and they don't give the results that you personally want to see. Then you, like the climate-ain't-warming group, deny that the models have any useful relevancy to science.

A model is simply a hypothesis made flesh. Before computers models existed there were analog models, but they weren't as open and available to everyone, and they required a large investment in mathematical competency to drive. Kepler had models; he spent literally years doing computations on Brahe's observations on Mars that showed that his elliptical model fit the data after trying probably tens of others, by hand. Like hypotheses, they are to an extent always plastic, and the fact that they need to be tweaked should not be any more unusual than Gould needing to explain differing evolutionary rates.
 
Ladewig said:
All the examples given involved things connected to long wires or cables. Would a Carrington-sized event affect the electronics in automobiles?
Click to expand...

Oh, should we catch the Big One, I imagine there will be plenty of harmonics and higher frequencies caused by molecule collisions and such to pretty much saturate the spectrum down into the microwave, though obviously those parts with nation-sized antennas are going to get the full brunt of it. How well electronics in general are built and shielded will define what works afterward and what doesn't.
 
shadron said:
How is one to understand your critique out of context of your plasma sun postings? You give no reason for your "nevering", so we have to extract it from your posting history.
Click to expand...


Good point. I'm going to stfu now and let this thread continue.

PS: All cosmology aside, the sun is categorically nearly all matter in the plasma state.

PPS: Doh!
 
Zeuzzz said:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/



Well I never. Its as if all the people here that have tried to convince me that solar physics and the standard model are nearly beyond repute were talking out of their rear ends all this time.

The amount of times I've heard solar astronomers say "this was completely unexpected by current models" about solar/terresitrial events clearly shows this to be a ludicrous position.

Don't make me list them, theres at least 10 I can think of off the top of my head without even searching the plasma cosmology thread :p
Click to expand...

If the weather says it will rain this weekend and it's sunny, it means our models for the earth are completely wrong. It's actually balanced on the back of a giant turtle.

If the moon turns out to have much more water than previously believed, it means it's made out of green cheese.

As for the OP - yes, we're all going to die. In fact I can guarantee that.
 
Moon-Spinner said:
I'm sure the 2012 conspiracy nuts will have no problem moving the Goal Posts a little so everything will fit into their belief system.
Click to expand...
I'm sure the 2012 conspiracy nuts will have no problem moving the Goal Posts a little so everything that could even remotely support their belief system will fit into it.
 
But what your last statement has to do with the op is beyond me. Explain?

Touché.
 
sol invictus said:
If the weather says it will rain this weekend and it's sunny, it means our models for the earth are completely wrong. It's actually balanced on the back of a giant turtle.

If the moon turns out to have much more water than previously believed, it means it's made out of green cheese.

As for the OP - yes, we're all going to die. In fact I can guarantee that.
Click to expand...

Well sheesh! Of course it's balanced on the back of a giant turtle - not forgetting the elephants. :)

Don't you remember - Twoflower and I proved it. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom